Author Topic: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren  (Read 2713 times)

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Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« on: April 17, 2014, 02:23:18 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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Lottery and it's functionality:

Quote
Q: So what actually happens at the draft lottery?
MZ: Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered one to fourteen, are placed in a bin. It turns that there are exactly 1,001 possible four-ball combinations when you have a set of fourteen. Each team in the lottery has been assigned a set number of combinations of any four of the balls, for a total of 1,000 combinations. (The 1,001st combination belongs to no team.) The number of different combinations assigned to each team depends on that team’s record; teams tied at the end of the regular season split evenly the total combinations allotted to their two positions, with one team getting one more combination in the event the total is odd. Then, an independent accountant, witnessed by a representative from each lottery team, draws four balls out of the bin, and whichever team is assigned that combination gets the first pick in the draft. (If it’s the 1,001st combination, the balls are replaced and drawn again.) After the first pick is determined, the balls are replaced, and the process repeated. If the new combination belongs to the team that already won the first pick, the balls are replaced & drawn again. The next different team whose combination is chosen gets the second pick, and then the whole process is repeated again for the third pick. After those three picks are set, the remaining teams are set to pick in inverse order of record, with ties being broken by a drawing to be held this Friday. The accountants mark down who gets each pick, and place a card bearing each team’s logo into an envelope bearing the number of that team’s pick. The envelopes are then brought out on stage, where they’re opened in front of a live TV audience, at which point we all find out where each team is drafting.

Celtic pick info currently:

Quote
Q: How likely are the Celtics to get a top-2 or top-3 pick?
MZ: We have the rights to our own first-round pick and Brooklyn’s first round pick this year. Brooklyn’s pick will be either #17 or #18, depending on a coin flip this Friday (they finished tied with Washington).

We finished tied for the 4th-worst record in the league, and a coin flip Friday between us and Utah will determine whether we get 98 or 97 ping-pong balls, and also to see which of these two teams will draft first in the event neither team wins the lottery. Figuring out the overall probability of getting any particular pick is a bit tricky, because the odds in the 2nd and 3rd pick drawings depend on who wins the first drawing (for example, if the worst team, which has 250 combinations assigned to it, wins the 1st pick, we have a 103/750=13.7% chance to win the second pick, but if the 14th-worst team, which has only 5 combinations assigned to it, wins, we have only a 98/995=10.3% chance at the second pick -- and the math gets even more complicated when you start working on the third pick). However, we’ve done the math, and it turns out that entering the lottery, with 97 (or 98; check back here Saturday in the event we lose the drawing) combinations, the Celtics have at least a 10.3% chance of getting the top pick, a 11.1% chance of getting the 2nd pick, and a 12.0% chance of getting the 3rd pick. This means that entering the lottery, we have at least a 21.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick, and a 33.4% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

NBA Draft Lottery Odds, pre-Friday drawings. Probability of getting: Team # of Combos 1st Pick 2nd Pick 3rd Pick Any Top 2 Pick Any Top 3 Pick Milwaukee 250 25.0% 21.5% 17.7% 46.5% 64.2% Philadelphia 199 19.9% 18.8% 17.1% 38.7% 55.8% Orlando 156 15.6% 15.7% 15.6% 31.3% 46.9% Utah* 104 10.4% 11.2% 12.1% 21.6% 33.7% Boston* 103 10.3% 11.1% 12.0% 21.4% 33.4% LA Lakers 63 6.3% 7.1% 8.1% 13.4% 21.5% Sacramento 43 4.3% 4.9% 5.8% 9.2% 15.0% Detroit 28 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% 6.1% 9.9% Cleveland 17 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 3.7% 6.1% New Orleans 11 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 2.4% 4.0% Denver 8 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 2.9% New York 7 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.5% Minnesota 6 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 2.2% Phoenix 5 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 1.8%
* = tied; tie to be broken Friday.

If Celtics land outside top three and lose tie breaker they can't get 4th pick at all.

Quote
Q: If we don’t win a top-3 pick, where will we pick in the first round?
MZ: Our spot depends on who else wins the lottery. After the top 3 picks have been awarded, the remaining teams draft in inverse order of regular season record. If the top three picks all go to teams with better records than the Celtics had, then we will get pushed down to 8th (or 7th, in the event we win Friday’s drawing), though there is only a 0.3% chance of that happening. Our overall draft lottery odds look like this:

Celtics' Chances Of Receiving Each Possible Pick, If Tiebreaker Won Pick Probability 1 10.4% 2 11.3% 3 12.1% 4 9.9% 5 37.3% 6 17.6% 7 1.4% Celtics' Chances Of Receiving Each Possible Pick, If Tiebreaker Lost Pick Probability 1 10.3% 2 11.1% 3 12.0% 4 0% 5 23.7% 6 34.2% 7 8.2% 8 0.3%
As you can see, the tiebreaker is extremely important; we have no shot at the 4th pick in the event we lose the tiebreaker, and our most likely pick in that scenario would be 6th (instead of 5th if we won the tiebreaker).

General draft and lotto info:

Quote
Q: My friend is a fan of team [X], and they don’t have a stats column on their website. Do you know what their chances are of getting pick [Y]?
MZ: Yeah, sure. Below is the complete table of lottery odds, available exclusively (at least as of the time of this article’s posting) via Celtics.com. This table assumes we win Friday’s tiebreaker; if we lose it we will swap places with Utah in this table. It’s worth noting that these numbers change from year to year, since teams whose records are tied at the end of the season split the number of combinations for the two spots they occupy.

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 MIL 25.0% 21.5% 17.7% 35.8% X X X X X X X X X X PHI 19.9% 18.8% 17.1% 31.9% 12.3% X X X X X X X X X ORL 15.6% 15.7% 15.6% 22.4% 26.7% 4.1% X X X X X X X X BOS 10.4% 11.2% 12.1% 9.9% 37.3% 17.6% 1.4% X X X X X X X UTA 10.3% 11.1% 12.0% X 23.7% 34.2% 8.2% 0.3% X X X X X X LAL 6.3% 7.1% 8.1% X X 44.3% 30.1% 4.0% 0.1% X X X X X SAC 4.3% 4.9% 5.8% X X X 60.2% 23.0% 1.8% 0.0% X X X X DET 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% X X X X 72.7% 16.6%* 0.9%* 0.0%* X X X CLE 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% X X X X X 81.5% 12.2% 0.4% 0.0% X X NOP 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% X X X X X X 87.0% 8.9% 0.2% 0.0% X DEN 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% X X X X X X X 90.7% 6.3% 0.1% X NYK 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% X X X X X X X X 93.5% 3.9% 0.0% MIN 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% X X X X X X X X X 96.0% 1.7%** PHX 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% X X X X X X X X X X 98.2%
Source: NBA Bylaws, Celtics simulation. All probabilities rounded to nearest percent – 0% indicates some >0 probability where x equals no probability.

* Pick would be sent to Charlotte, pursuant to the Corey Maggette/Ben Gordon trade.

** Pick would be sent to Phoenix, pursuant to the Wesley Johnson trade.

The table here assumes the Celtics win Friday’s tiebreaker; we’ll update it to reflect the draw if necessary when it happens (but to do so, just swap Utah and Boston in the table).


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Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2014, 02:27:05 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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It's amazing to me how many fans on these forums don't understand how the lottery works.  Every time I see someone claim it's "fixed", it's an obvious sign they don't actually understand how it works.  Saying "I believe the Lotto is rigged" is basically the "I don't believe in evolution" cringe-worthy comment of NBA fandom.   It's not something you believe/don't believe... it's something you understand/don't understand.   

We aren't dealing with frozen envelopes, people.  Unless you think every team is willingly in on the "fix" conspiracy... it's not fixed.

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2014, 02:30:50 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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It's interesting he says we get either 97 or 98 lottery combinations.

I had thought the odds were:

4th place: 119 combinations
5th place: 88 combinations

So, 207 total combinations.  The team that wins the "coin flip" gets 104, the loser gets 103.

It must be a typo, since the odds calculations used reference the 103 / 104 number.


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Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2014, 02:46:06 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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It's amazing to me how many fans on these forums don't understand how the lottery works.  Every time I see someone claim it's "fixed", it's an obvious sign they don't actually understand how it works.  Saying "I believe the Lotto is rigged" is basically the "I don't believe in evolution" cringe-worthy comment of NBA fandom.   It's not something you believe/don't believe... it's something you understand/don't understand.   

We aren't dealing with frozen envelopes, people.  Unless you think every team is willingly in on the "fix" conspiracy... it's not fixed.
I don't think it's "fixed" at all.  In fact, I think it's quite broken ;)

while there may not be any evident way it's rigged, it's awfully coincindental that the same teams keep winning it and not just because they're in it every year.  If Orlando wins it again, for the 4th time, when there's another prized big man to grab with the top pick, the conspiracy theories will explode.

If there's any karma/justice, C's will win it this year since they've never won it, gotten stiffed twice before and didn't roll out a team devoid of talent this year.

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2014, 02:52:48 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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Guess the coin flips take place tomorrow.

#FingersCrossed

#CelticsPickingOneAndSeventeen


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Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2014, 02:52:57 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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It's interesting he says we get either 97 or 98 lottery combinations.

I had thought the odds were:

4th place: 119 combinations
5th place: 88 combinations

So, 207 total combinations.  The team that wins the "coin flip" gets 104, the loser gets 103.

It must be a typo, since the odds calculations used reference the 103 / 104 number.
You are correct. He has his number of ping pong balls wrong but the odds are correct.

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2014, 02:58:47 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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If Orlando wins it again, for the 4th time, when there's another prized big man to grab with the top pick, the conspiracy theories will explode.

Only morons believe in conspiracy theories.  There are a lot of morons out there.

Here is one of my favorite blog posts on the lottery, from Piston Powered in 2012, listing the reasons why David Stern would rig the lottery for every team in the draft (except Milwaukee).

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Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2014, 04:11:36 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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If Orlando wins it again, for the 4th time, when there's another prized big man to grab with the top pick, the conspiracy theories will explode.

Only morons believe in conspiracy theories.  There are a lot of morons out there.

Here is one of my favorite blog posts on the lottery, from Piston Powered in 2012, listing the reasons why David Stern would rig the lottery for every team in the draft (except Milwaukee).
Yeah I was about to post something like that.  You can literally make up a "conspiracy theory" about any team...

Celtics wins?  Clearly fixed for the big market East coast team... one of the league's premiere franchises... it's in the best interest for the league to give the top pick to the Celtics.

Lakers win?  Clearly fixed... obviously.

Magic win?  According to slamtheking, this is a sign of a fix since they always give prized big men to Orlando.

Bucks win?  Obviously fixed... they just sold the franchise.  #1 pick was clearly part of their purchase agreement.  League did the same thing for New Orleans.

Etc... any number of conflicting conspiracies... doesn't matter who wins... there's a "fix" explanation.

If the league was really fixing the lotto, we would have won in 1997 and 2007.

And again, if fans read about how the lottery actually worked... it would be really hard to claim it was fixed without sounding like an idiot.  Every team would need to be in on the conspiracy and willingly allowing the league to fix it.... which makes no sense since each team is a separate business that stands to make millions and millions depending on the player they land (see Cleveland before and after LeBron)

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2014, 04:36:17 PM »

Offline clover

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What is the source of this interview? Seems like it might be nice to credit and link it.

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2014, 04:38:59 PM »

Offline saltlover

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What is the source of this interview? Seems like it might be nice to credit and link it.

Straight from the Celtics website:

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2014, 04:50:11 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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My money is on the biggest market and that is LA.

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2014, 04:54:01 PM »

Offline clover

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What is the source of this interview? Seems like it might be nice to credit and link it.

Straight from the Celtics website:

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

Thanks!

Re: Draft Lottery and how it works via Mike Zarren
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2014, 11:43:39 PM »

Offline Rondohara

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Here is how it works: they decide the results then pretend to have a lottery.

Believing they wouldn't alter it it's the same as believing you can go flashing money in the a dangerous area and no one will rob you, or you can place a candy in front of a kid and tells him not to eat and he won't.

And of course we have to remember there we're never conspiracies in this world, and of course no lotteries manipulated.  ::)

My prediction:
1 Celtics (to minny?)
2 Philly
3 Lakers

Just seen a rumored "source" agreeing with this.
Goal for next season: Top 2 seed.
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