Author Topic: Tied for Fourth!  (Read 5027 times)

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Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2014, 11:43:03 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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I'm totally confused.  All I know is the odds sound pretty good. 

Go Silver!!!
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2014, 11:48:15 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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1001 total combos...

4th gets 119
5th gets 88

Since we tie, we split them...

207/2 ...

Depending on the tiebreaker, one team will get 103 and the other will get 104.   So about a 10% chance at the #1 pick.

If the top 2 picks go to the top 2 teams, we'd have 103/104 of the remaining 551 combos... potentially a good shot at #3.   

Tiebreaker determines draft order if neither gets into the Top 3.   I'm just basing this on what people have said in this forum for the past month.  I haven't actually researched it.

« Last Edit: April 16, 2014, 11:55:50 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2014, 01:25:50 AM »

Offline Mencius

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Sean Grande had a couple of useful tweets about this:

Quote
Sean Grande ‏@SeanGrandePBP  1h
Pending coin flip, and using whole #'s, C's draft chances look like this... 1. 10% 2. 11% 3. 12% 4. 5% 5. 31% 6. 26% 7. 5% 8. .2%


Sean Grande ‏@SeanGrandePBP  2h
If neither the Celtics or Jazz move into the top 3 (& it's more likely one WILL move up than not), a coin flip Friday decides who picks 4th.

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2014, 01:57:14 AM »

Offline Sixth Man

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Sean Grande had a couple of useful tweets about this:

Quote
Sean Grande ‏@SeanGrandePBP  1h
Pending coin flip, and using whole #'s, C's draft chances look like this... 1. 10% 2. 11% 3. 12% 4. 5% 5. 31% 6. 26% 7. 5% 8. .2%


Sean Grande ‏@SeanGrandePBP  2h
If neither the Celtics or Jazz move into the top 3 (& it's more likely one WILL move up than not), a coin flip Friday decides who picks 4th.

Excellent post - thank you...

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2014, 09:39:16 AM »

Offline nzea

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1001 total combos...

4th gets 119
5th gets 88

Since we tie, we split them...

207/2 ...

Depending on the tiebreaker, one team will get 103 and the other will get 104.   So about a 10% chance at the #1 pick.

If the top 2 picks go to the top 2 teams, we'd have 103/104 of the remaining 551 combos... potentially a good shot at #3.   

Tiebreaker determines draft order if neither gets into the Top 3.   I'm just basing this on what people have said in this forum for the past month.  I haven't actually researched it.

If we win the tiebreaker we get 4th if the top 3 remain the same. That's the main takeaway.

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2014, 09:42:09 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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33% chance at a top three pick, 69% chance at top five, 95% chance at top six.

I'll take that.  If we land sixth, I really hope that Randle goes before either Smart or Exum.  I'd much rather have one of those two guards.  I'd prefer Smart, but I'd take Exum. 
« Last Edit: April 17, 2014, 09:51:37 AM by Celtics18 »
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2014, 09:51:52 AM »

Offline hardlyyardley

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What about a coin flip for 17/18 with Washington and Brooklyn?

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2014, 10:03:32 AM »

Offline lightspeed5

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Who does the coin flip if it happens? Adam silver? Ref? Some random guy in an office?

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2014, 10:09:49 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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Who does the coin flip if it happens? Adam silver? Ref? Some random guy in an office?

Danny
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2014, 10:21:45 AM »

Offline Mr October

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Historically the coin flips happen a week or 2 after the last regular season game. We should know the tie breakers by the end of April.

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #25 on: April 17, 2014, 10:39:03 AM »

Offline Kane3387

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What about a coin flip for 17/18 with Washington and Brooklyn?

There is one


KG: "Dude.... What is up with yo shorts?!"

CBD_2016 Cavs Remaining Picks - 14.14

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #26 on: April 17, 2014, 10:44:08 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Historically the coin flips happen a week or 2 after the last regular season game. We should know the tie breakers by the end of April.

Last year this occurred on April 19th, and the season ended on April 17th.  This year the season ended on April 16th, so maybe tomorrow, April 18th?

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #27 on: April 17, 2014, 11:15:23 AM »

Offline Mr October

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Historically the coin flips happen a week or 2 after the last regular season game. We should know the tie breakers by the end of April.

Last year this occurred on April 19th, and the season ended on April 17th.  This year the season ended on April 16th, so maybe tomorrow, April 18th?

Cool. That would be great!

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #28 on: April 17, 2014, 01:30:33 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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What do the odds look like if the Celtics lose the coinflip?

Re: Tied for Fourth!
« Reply #29 on: April 17, 2014, 01:32:44 PM »

Offline Celtics39

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What do the odds look like if the Celtics lose the coinflip?

In terms of getting a top 3 pick or the #1 pick, the "coin flip" tomorrow doesn't have any impact. It will still be ~33% chance at top 3 and ~10% at #1. It will still be very helpful if we can win it though just to be slotted 4th instead of 5th.