Author Topic: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?  (Read 17004 times)

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If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« on: April 14, 2014, 11:11:37 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Danny was the guest commentator today.  Basically unless a big overpayment is coming our way, the starting lineup next year looks like

?
Sullinger/KO
Green
AB
Rondo

He really likes Green and mentioned several times how easily/quietly he scored 26 points tonight. He loves his unorthodox layup finger roll. Green was very agressive tonight. Had lots of good things to say about AB (he sounds like he will match any offer). He obviously likes Rondo who he hopes will be back to full health next season. Optimistic of how Sullinger and Olynyk will turn out.  He went through questions and answers and of course the #1 question again was, what is the teams biggest need come next season. With a smile and sounding like a broken record he stated again, the team is looking for Rim protection.

There are no center FAs upcoming that are considered to be good rim protectors (Okafor, Gortat). Stiemnsma is a FA but is at best a role player off the bench.  We could trade for Asik, but the more i think about it, Danny will not give up Green for him nor waste a 1st for a guy who will only play for one season and will cost 14 million dollars. If we got Asik we would of grabbed him via this past trade deadline. 

So this leads me to a conclusion, he is going to try to meet the #1 offseason need via the draft.  WCS just a few hours ago stated he is going to stay another year in college.  Nurkic and Capela are considered the other top center prospects and one is hardly considered a rim protector and the other is not ready for the nba until a few years later.

So it comes down to Embiid or Vonleh. Two guys that are within our reach when we draft.   

- Embiid is likely to go first or definitely in the top 3.  He is 7 ft tall, has a huge 7'5 wingspan, wide frame, athleticism, quickness + skills to become a dominant center one day.  He is still raw though and there is a minor redflag due to his back problems.  At this point we would have to give up both of our 1st or our pick plus a future 1st to try to grab him unless we win the lotto

- Vonleh is 6'10 in shoes, which is considered a tad underdized for a Center in today's nba. However is 240 pounds (likely to rise to 245-250 in a few months), has a 7'4 wingspan, above avg athleticism/quickness that should enable him to battle most centers in the nba.  His defense (post, perimeter) is excellent, has a promising looking game from the post, has suprising ball handling skills and a sweet looking jump shooting stroke. Biggest issue is mediocre feel for the game. Just an ok passer and off ball defender.  But for a Center, those things are considered luxuries anyways.  Worse case, you get a guy who is a very good rebounder, shot blocker , has a nice hook shot and can make the open jump shot (range to the 3pt line). He is going to be available from 5-8. As a bonus he was born from the Mass area.

What do people think?  As an alternative to missing out on Embiid, would you be happy with drafting Vonleh to play as the teams center/rim protector for next season?

potential starting lineup for next season

Vonleh
KO/Sullinger
Green
AB
Rondo

Bench
KO/Sullinger
Bass
Wallace
Pressey
Johnson
Faverani
2014 2nd 1st - BPA   
1 or 2 Free Agents

Can this lineup make the playoffs?
« Last Edit: April 14, 2014, 11:18:51 PM by triboy16f »

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2014, 11:23:53 PM »

Offline footey

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I don't agree with you regarding Vonleh's defensive prowess.  I did not get that read on him in the handful of games I saw him play this year.  Maybe you have seen more of him than I .

I also don't feel that he has sufficient athleticism to be a rim protector.  He doesn't move that fast, and does not seem to read the game that well.  He is a big drop down from Ebiid as a 5 prospect.

I would take Gordon over Vonleh and search internationally for a better 5, even a prospect, or be patient for when the following year.  BPA is unlikely to be Vonleh when we pick, unless our pick drops to 7th or 8th, unlikely but possible.

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2014, 11:40:57 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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The last thing this team needs is a PF. If we end up with the 5th pick I see us either drafting Smart or trading the pick for an established center.

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2014, 11:43:24 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Another option for Ainge would be to try to move up from #18 (if necessary) to get Capela.
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Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2014, 11:44:30 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I don't agree with you regarding Vonleh's defensive prowess.  I did not get that read on him in the handful of games I saw him play this year.  Maybe you have seen more of him than I .

I also don't feel that he has sufficient athleticism to be a rim protector.  He doesn't move that fast, and does not seem to read the game that well.  He is a big drop down from Ebiid as a 5 prospect.

I would take Gordon over Vonleh and search internationally for a better 5, even a prospect, or be patient for when the following year.  BPA is unlikely to be Vonleh when we pick, unless our pick drops to 7th or 8th, unlikely but possible.

I like Gordon better also.   But Danny sounds like he is going to draft based on needs. And the need right now is rim protection.

I have seen Vonleh play a few games and yeah your right about a couple of his weaknesses. He is not explosive and only has mediocre feel for game.  But he has excellent rebounding and shot blocking instincts. Its advanced for sure. His handles and jump shot for a guy his size is terrific.  Worse case if he keeps on putting on strength, we are potentially getting another Al Horford minus the high iq but with longer wingspan/reach.

It's too bad he played on a crappy team like Indiana this year. It was a horrible selfish team.

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2014, 11:46:32 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think there is zero chance that Danny Ainge drafts based on need in the top 10. And, if he wants to win games next year, I think there is zero chance that we keep the pick if it's outside the top 3 or 4 (depending on how he sees Exum).

I also think there is zero chance Danny Ainge bats an eye at trading Green if he thinks there is a better 3 to be had, or a good haul from the trade. If he can get a better, higher ceilinged, or replacement level 3 that helps clear cap space for 2015 he'll pull the trigger.

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like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2014, 11:51:13 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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The last thing this team needs is a PF. If we end up with the 5th pick I see us either drafting Smart or trading the pick for an established center.

Vonleh can play either PF or C in the nba. The way he likes to stay around underneath the paint on the defensive end though makes him better suited to be a center though.  He bulked up big time from hs to his freshman year (15 pounds of muscle) and it wouldn't be a surprised if he is about 250-255 by the time trainning camp starts.    That is a big player
« Last Edit: April 15, 2014, 12:01:22 AM by triboy16f »

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2014, 12:00:35 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I think there is zero chance that Danny Ainge drafts based on need in the top 10. And, if he wants to win games next year, I think there is zero chance that we keep the pick if it's outside the top 3 or 4 (depending on how he sees Exum).

I also think there is zero chance Danny Ainge bats an eye at trading Green if he thinks there is a better 3 to be had, or a good haul from the trade. If he can get a better, higher ceilinged, or replacement level 3 that helps clear cap space for 2015 he'll pull the trigger.

Well your zero chance doesn't make sense if you heard him tonight. Unless he is lying which is possible.

There is no assurance that Parker nor Wiggins will become better than Green.  There really is none if you think about it. Danny drafting either of these guys and getting rid of Green , could potentially be a step backwards.  Thats not what Danny has planned, especially with wanting to be relevant asap and trying to keep Rondo for the long term (if things workout).

Now you also mention if we draft outside of 3-4, to trade the pick. But for who? You get Kevin Love, we are still missing rim protection. Also nobody will give up their promising rim protectors with our picks unless its for someone like Asik. Just don't think Danny will take that route

not stating drafting Vonleh is a surefire plan to get us back on the fast track. But the kid will have a nba center body ready plus out of everything can do two things really well - block shots and rebound.  You can say, he would be reaching a little, but its not like he also doesn't have other skills/upside.

« Last Edit: April 15, 2014, 12:06:51 AM by triboy16f »

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2014, 12:06:21 AM »

Offline Kane3387

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Danny will draft best player available. Always does. It's about assets at this point. You could argue giddens and jajuan Johnson were need picks but look how those ended up.


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Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2014, 12:10:41 AM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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The last thing this team needs is a PF. If we end up with the 5th pick I see us either drafting Smart or trading the pick for an established center.

Vonleh can play either PF or C in the nba. The way he likes to stay around underneath the paint on the defensive end though makes him better suited to be a center though.  He bulked up big time from hs to his freshman year (15 pounds of muscle) and it wouldn't be a surprised if he is about 250-255 by the time trainning camp starts.    That is a big player
a team of tweeners is not ideal. Sully is already our undersized center

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2014, 12:10:49 AM »

Offline rondohondo

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Danny will draft best player available. Always does. It's about assets at this point. You could argue giddens and jajuan Johnson were need picks but look how those ended up.

don't forget fab

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2014, 12:28:27 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think there is zero chance that Danny Ainge drafts based on need in the top 10. And, if he wants to win games next year, I think there is zero chance that we keep the pick if it's outside the top 3 or 4 (depending on how he sees Exum).

I also think there is zero chance Danny Ainge bats an eye at trading Green if he thinks there is a better 3 to be had, or a good haul from the trade. If he can get a better, higher ceilinged, or replacement level 3 that helps clear cap space for 2015 he'll pull the trigger.

Well your zero chance doesn't make sense if you heard him tonight. Unless he is lying which is possible.

Have you listened to Danny Ainge in his tenure as GM? He lies everytime he talks to the press, even if only partially. He never, ever, lays his cards on the table unless he has to. Ever. Id bet that the last time he spoke his true mind was at Kevin Garnett's press conference after the trade.

Quote
There is no assurance that Parker nor Wiggins will become better than Green.  There really is none if you think about it. Danny drafting either of these guys and getting rid of Green , could potentially be a step backwards.  Thats not what Danny has planned, especially with wanting to be relevant asap and trying to keep Rondo for the long term (if things workout).

You sound like you know Danny's heart..but think about this; if Danny Ainge wanted to trade Rondo, would he diminish his value by hinting at it? Of course not. Danny might want to keep Rondo, might want to drop him, might be okay either way. But he never short-sells his assets before he trades them.

Quote
Now you also mention if we draft outside of 3-4, to trade the pick. But for who? You get Kevin Love, we are still missing rim protection. Also nobody will give up their promising rim protectors with our picks unless its for someone like Asik. Just don't think Danny will take that route

First of all, what makes you think that Danny Ainge won't make one move now, and another move later? Also, why won't Danny Ainge trade for Asik? He won't overpay for him, sure, but once Asik went past the deadline without being moved, his pricetag dropped precipitously. If Danny wanted to tank this year, then acquire Asik later with the goal of winning games, this is how he'd do it.

Quote
not stating drafting Vonleh is a surefire plan to get us back on the fast track. But the kid will have a nba center body ready plus out of everything can do two things really well - block shots and rebound.  You can say, he would be reaching a little, but its not like he also doesn't have other skills/upside.

You know who else blocked shots and rebounded well? Hasheem Thabeet. You say Wiggins/Parker 'might not' be as good as green one day, but you think Danny would rather tie his fortunes to Vonleh reaching his potential over moving the pick for Kevin Love (which won't happen this summer anyways)?

Nothing Danny does would really surprise me. Keep the pick , trade it , who knows? The Fundamental Truth is that Danny will do what he thinks. Best.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2014, 12:57:16 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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If we are picking in the 5-7 range, I wouldn't bat an eyelash at selecting Vonleh.  His agility, ranged shooting, shotblocking, athleticism, etc. add up to a talented athlete.  As Chad Ford said, he has a lot of similarities to Chris Bosh.

Now would I rather have Embiid?  Well if health were equal, of course. Embiid projects to the next Hakeem.  I'd take Olajuwon over Bosh every day and twice on Sunday.  But fact is, we might be in no position to draft Embiid.  So yeah, I could settle for a Bosh at 5-7.  If we get a top 3 pick then we have a shot at Embiid but it all depends on the lottery balls at that point.

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2014, 01:05:18 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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If we are picking in the 5-7 range, I wouldn't bat an eyelash at selecting Vonleh.  His agility, ranged shooting, shotblocking, athleticism, etc. add up to a talented athlete.  As Chad Ford said, he has a lot of similarities to Chris Bosh.

Now would I rather have Embiid?  Well if health were equal, of course. Embiid projects to the next Hakeem.  I'd take Olajuwon over Bosh every day and twice on Sunday.  But fact is, we might be in no position to draft Embiid.  So yeah, I could settle for a Bosh at 5-7.  If we get a top 3 pick then we have a shot at Embiid but it all depends on the lottery balls at that point.

And it would be a stronger, heavier more physical Bosh that would be able to play Center in the nba. 

Re: If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?
« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2014, 01:13:59 AM »

Offline Sixth Man

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If we are picking in the 5-7 range, I wouldn't bat an eyelash at selecting Vonleh.  His agility, ranged shooting, shotblocking, athleticism, etc. add up to a talented athlete.  As Chad Ford said, he has a lot of similarities to Chris Bosh.

Now would I rather have Embiid?  Well if health were equal, of course. Embiid projects to the next Hakeem.  I'd take Olajuwon over Bosh every day and twice on Sunday.  But fact is, we might be in no position to draft Embiid.  So yeah, I could settle for a Bosh at 5-7.  If we get a top 3 pick then we have a shot at Embiid but it all depends on the lottery balls at that point.

Agree strongly with this, except I might take Vonleh at #4, as BPA.  Whether or not he develops into a "rim protector" I think he may well develop into a stud PF who can also excel at the 5.