Prepare for Gordon, Vonleh, or Smart

[cometboy]

just to clear something up.

a couple of posters have stated we threw away a virtual guarantee of a top 3 pick. sorry, but that's wrong. even if we ended up with the 3rd worst record, i believe the odds are something like 37% of securing a top 3 pick. i certainly prefer that to where we are likely to end up, but the odds would be 2 - 1 against getting a top 3 pick. those are house odds. the word guarantee doesn't usually go with 2 - 1 odds agaist you (unless you're Joe willie).

also, remember the 5th pick in 07 turned into a championship. demarcus cousins was a 5th pick. paul pierce a 10th, i beleve. as everyone knows, there is also no guarntee the player selected will materialize or stay healthy. we will still end up with 2 good players this year, maybe one very good player.

i started a thread a while back that we would end up with the 5th worse record. it was easy to believe/hope otherwise when we tied orlando. however, it was an illusion.

....and it certainly isn't the end of life as we know it.

CB

sure, a top 3 pick as the 3rd worst record is not guaranteed, but your a bit off on your odds there. We were tied for 3rd, in which the odds of a top 3 pick are 46.9%, so basically about 50%. We are very close to dropping to 6th to finish the season, for which the odds of a top 3 pick are 21.5%, so basically 22%, less than half of what the odds were at 3, a HUGE drop in the likelihood of getting a top 3 pick. It does matter significantly.

Still, if Parker stays in school, then it getting the 3rd pick doesn't matter so much anymore.

ok, my bad if you're odds are correct. however, i never said it doesn't make much difference in the odds between 3rd and 6th. it's a hugh difference. however, the difference is mitigated by 1) ping pong luck, 2) player uncertainties, and 3) trader danny. this is a good draft and we will pick up some useful assets, maybe even via trade.

i'm dissapointed in the last 2 wins for sure, but encourged by the heart of this team. unlike some of the other bottom dwellers, we have some decent talent when healthy. a good center and an outside threat would make us very competetive.

oh, and 47% is no guarantee of anything. here's a guarantee for you. i guarantee one of the 3 worst records doesn't secure a top 3 pick.

CB

[kozlodoev]

sure, a top 3 pick as the 3rd worst record is not guaranteed, but your a bit off on your odds there. We were tied for 3rd, in which the odds of a top 3 pick are 46.9%, so basically about 50%. We are very close to dropping to 6th to finish the season, for which the odds of a top 3 pick are 21.5%, so basically 22%, less than half of what the odds were at 3, a HUGE drop in the likelihood of getting a top 3 pick. It does matter significantly.

Yeah, in the land of spin, you're tied for third where the chance for a top pick are 47% if you hold it without being tied to everyone.

We were clinging by the skin of our teeth to a 33% chance for a top 3 pick, and improving this to 47% was out of our control.

Also, 50% is no more a "virtual guarantee" than it is a virtual guarantee that you'll get get to kick rather than receive at the start of a football game. A coin flip, that's what it is.

[nickagneta]

Did tankers really think we were going to drop the last 10+ games of the season?

The schedule was pathetically easy. Most figured 3 wins out of the last 8 games given two philly games. Just because we lost the first 4 of those last eight doesn't mean that further wins were not going to happen. If you were paying attention, the team was playing well in every one of those losses except Washington. They continued to play well and beat two teams that mailed in games.

Heck last night they followed the tankers handbook, sat their three best players, played rookies and DLeaguers, shot extremely well and won. What can you do? Tell the player to purposely miss shots and throw the game? All it takes is one player coming out and saying that and the team has the feds and the league looking into them.

The 3rd slot was never in play. Never. The team was playing too well and the schedule was too easy too think wins were not going to happen.

[hpantazo]

sure, a top 3 pick as the 3rd worst record is not guaranteed, but your a bit off on your odds there. We were tied for 3rd, in which the odds of a top 3 pick are 46.9%, so basically about 50%. We are very close to dropping to 6th to finish the season, for which the odds of a top 3 pick are 21.5%, so basically 22%, less than half of what the odds were at 3, a HUGE drop in the likelihood of getting a top 3 pick. It does matter significantly.

Yeah, in the land of spin, you're tied for third where the chance for a top pick are 47% if you hold it without being tied to everyone.

We were clinging by the skin of our teeth to a 33% chance for a top 3 pick, and improving this to 47% was out of our control.

Also, 50% is no more a "virtual guarantee" than it is a virtual guarantee that you'll get get to kick rather than receive at the start of a football game. A coin flip, that's what it is.

yea, we went from a coin flip for a top 3 pick, to the odds that Josh Smith hits a three pointer in one attempt.

[hpantazo]

just to clear something up.

a couple of posters have stated we threw away a virtual guarantee of a top 3 pick. sorry, but that's wrong. even if we ended up with the 3rd worst record, i believe the odds are something like 37% of securing a top 3 pick. i certainly prefer that to where we are likely to end up, but the odds would be 2 - 1 against getting a top 3 pick. those are house odds. the word guarantee doesn't usually go with 2 - 1 odds agaist you (unless you're Joe willie).

also, remember the 5th pick in 07 turned into a championship. demarcus cousins was a 5th pick. paul pierce a 10th, i beleve. as everyone knows, there is also no guarntee the player selected will materialize or stay healthy. we will still end up with 2 good players this year, maybe one very good player.

i started a thread a while back that we would end up with the 5th worse record. it was easy to believe/hope otherwise when we tied orlando. however, it was an illusion.

....and it certainly isn't the end of life as we know it.

CB

sure, a top 3 pick as the 3rd worst record is not guaranteed, but your a bit off on your odds there. We were tied for 3rd, in which the odds of a top 3 pick are 46.9%, so basically about 50%. We are very close to dropping to 6th to finish the season, for which the odds of a top 3 pick are 21.5%, so basically 22%, less than half of what the odds were at 3, a HUGE drop in the likelihood of getting a top 3 pick. It does matter significantly.

Still, if Parker stays in school, then it getting the 3rd pick doesn't matter so much anymore.

ok, my bad if you're odds are correct. however, i never said it doesn't make much difference in the odds between 3rd and 6th. it's a hugh difference. however, the difference is mitigated by 1) ping pong luck, 2) player uncertainties, and 3) trader danny. this is a good draft and we will pick up some useful assets, maybe even via trade.

i'm dissapointed in the last 2 wins for sure, but encourged by the heart of this team. unlike some of the other bottom dwellers, we have some decent talent when healthy. a good center and an outside threat would make us very competetive.

oh, and 47% is no guarantee of anything. here's a guarantee for you. i guarantee one of the 3 worst records doesn't secure a top 3 pick.

CB

the odds are correct, they are from http://www.tankathon.com

I agree with your 2nd and 3rd points, there is no sure thing in the draft, someone from the top 3 could be a bust, or be good but not great, and yes, Ainge will likely make a trade this summer, but still, the perceived value of the pick in a trade is much greater if it's in the top 3. Your 1st point is not correct however, ping pong luck does not mitigate the odds, it is reflected in the odds.

[footey]

Did tankers really think we were going to drop the last 10+ games of the season?

The schedule was pathetically easy. Most figured 3 wins out of the last 8 games given two philly games. Just because we lost the first 4 of those last eight doesn't mean that further wins were not going to happen. If you were paying attention, the team was playing well in every one of those losses except Washington. They continued to play well and beat two teams that mailed in games.

Heck last night they followed the tankers handbook, sat their three best players, played rookies and DLeaguers, shot extremely well and won. What can you do? Tell the player to purposely miss shots and throw the game? All it takes is one player coming out and saying that and the team has the feds and the league looking into them.

The 3rd slot was never in play. Never. The team was playing too well and the schedule was too easy too think wins were not going to happen.

We were tied for the 3rd slot with 4 games to play.  How can you say it was "never in play", Nick? 

[cometboy]

here are some more odds for everyone:

the bucks have the best shot at winning the lottery, with a 24% chance of getting the top pick. however, that means the rest of the lottery field collectively is 76% favorites to win the top spot.

even though the bucks have the best odds to win the lottery, they are favored to lose the top spot (by 3 - 1 odds) to a team with lower odds of winning the top spot.

CB
"there are three kinds of lies: lies, [dang]ed lies and statistics"
Mark Twain

haha - just saw the automatic edit to my quote

[nickagneta]

Did tankers really think we were going to drop the last 10+ games of the season?

The schedule was pathetically easy. Most figured 3 wins out of the last 8 games given two philly games. Just because we lost the first 4 of those last eight doesn't mean that further wins were not going to happen. If you were paying attention, the team was playing well in every one of those losses except Washington. They continued to play well and beat two teams that mailed in games.

Heck last night they followed the tankers handbook, sat their three best players, played rookies and DLeaguers, shot extremely well and won. What can you do? Tell the player to purposely miss shots and throw the game? All it takes is one player coming out and saying that and the team has the feds and the league looking into them.

The 3rd slot was never in play. Never. The team was playing too well and the schedule was too easy too think wins were not going to happen.

We were tied for the 3rd slot with 4 games to play.  How can you say it was "never in play", Nick?

Because given the way the team was playing and the schedule, as well as the schedule of the other teams involved, losing the rest of the games while the competition won their games was unrealistic.

The only way we lost the last couple of games is if the coach directed the players to throw the game, which I still think is illegal and I doubt the players would listen to the coach if he told them that.

Number 3 was never in play.

Tankers are really big into percentages and chances. Given 8 games left in the season, the C's in the middle of a losing streak but starting to play much better, the C's schedule, and the schedule of the competition, what was the likely percentage chance that the C's lost every game and finished 3rd? Probably a lot lower than trying to get into the top 3 picks from the 11th lottery slot. As is it, the odds played out as they should have and so, the 3rd spot was never in play.

[dreamgreen]

Well it sure is depressing watching our odds get worse for a top 3 pick. What is worse IMO is if we draft one of the players mentioned by the OP that will not help us at all. I guess if whom ever we drafted of that lot became a good player, we can make a trade? I would think that if we can't draft:
Embiid
Wiggins
Parker
Exum

than DA will move the pick. Possibly in a package for a veteran player or for a chance at a better pick in the future. We need a PG only less than we need a PF.

[Smokeeye123]

I'm actually confident no matter what pic we get we are going to be trading it for some one. Aldridge, Love, M. Gasol, there are a lot of options.

[LarBrd33]

I'm actually confident no matter what pic we get we are going to be trading it for some one. Aldridge, Love, M. Gasol, there are a lot of options.

I could see a "#7 pick + filler for Josh SMith" type trade if the Celts decide to hang onto ROndo.   Then maybe you do Jeff Green + #18 for Asik.    Prob win 43 games right?

[green147]

No team wants Josh Smith (especially ones that value analytics). Detroit fans would be happy to have him gone for nothing. If we are giving up the number 7 pick, I could see it going for Monroe (sign and trade). The Asik trade seems logical but Houston doesn't want to wrap up more money, so it'd likely be our trade exemption and the pick for Asik.

[BballTim]

I'm actually confident no matter what pic we get we are going to be trading it for some one. Aldridge, Love, M. Gasol, there are a lot of options.

I could see a "#7 pick + filler for Josh SMith" type trade if the Celts decide to hang onto ROndo.   Then maybe you do Jeff Green + #18 for Asik.    Prob win 43 games right?

  We'd have Rondo, a mediocre scorer at the two, no sf to speak of, Asik and about 4 pfs. That's too imbalanced. Smith doesn't really work that well at sf.

[LarBrd33]

I'm actually confident no matter what pic we get we are going to be trading it for some one. Aldridge, Love, M. Gasol, there are a lot of options.

I could see a "#7 pick + filler for Josh SMith" type trade if the Celts decide to hang onto ROndo.   Then maybe you do Jeff Green + #18 for Asik.    Prob win 43 games right?

  We'd have Rondo, a mediocre scorer at the two, no sf to speak of, Asik and about 4 pfs. That's too imbalanced. Smith doesn't really work that well at sf.

Yeah, but if 2012 Rondo shows up, that's a solid 43 win team right there, right?

[LarBrd33]

Question:  With Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and Exum off the board... who really fits with our existing talent?

Forget about Jeff Green and Bass.  I'm hoping we trade them for something.

Let's pretend that SUlly and Oly exceed expectations and become long-term starters... we're all rooting for that, right?   Every time Oly dumps 25... I get excited.

So we have our mainstays... Rondo, Bradley, Sully, Oly.   Sully/Oly are both PF, right?  Can you envision either as a long-term center?  I can't.   Can you imagine Oly at SF??     Is there a guy you can envision drafting, keeping, and slipping in with the rest of those guys??

Isn't Vonleh, Randle and Gordon all PFs?    Could Smart play SG?   I feel like anyone we draft will necessitate a trade at some point... either the player we draft or one of the "mainstays" already on the team.

At least with Wiggins/Parker, I could imagine dumping Green and sticking one of those guys at SF... PG - Rondo, SG - Bradley, SF - Parker, PF - SUlly, C - Oly....   but man that team would struggle defensively inside.   We got ourselves a flawed roster.

Thoughts?