Prepare for Gordon, Vonleh, or Smart

[hpantazo]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick? I don't get the roller coaster ride that some posters have that ties the certainty of a top 3 pick with finishing in the third or fourth slot and the certainty that landing in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot lands us a 6-9 draft pick.

The percentages say its a better chance to get if you finish 3rd or 4th but just like finishing 5th, 6th, or 7th, finishing 3rd or 4th still gives you a better chance of not being in the top three than it does being in the top three.

Its a crap shoot. Its a lottery. Anything can happen. I know I will still be glued to the TV waiting to see the envelopes opening hoping for a top three pick, but there was never any certainty one way or the other that finishing slightly lower in the standings was going to get us in the top three.

So I say, don't prepare for anything because we don't know anything yet about were the C's will pick. It seems every year a team in the 5h, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th slots ends up picking in the top three. Why not again this year and why not the Celtics? Just have some hope people.

maybe because, as much as it is a lottery, we cut our odds in half these last few games, it's a real, legit blow to our chances of a top 3 pick. The stats don't lie.

A chance is still just that, a chance. Its not a certainty. And honestly, its as good a chance as most thought we would have when the season started.

there is no logic in that statement though. When your odds of a top 3 pick go from about 46 percent to about 22 percent for winning 2-3 meaningless games at the end of the season, you screwed up big time.

[Geo123]

Hmm.

Gordon's offensively challenged—we've got enough players like that already.

Smart's a headcase. Don't need that.

Vonleh? Don't know much about him. But Danny needs to get busy settling on a "power forward of the future" and then jettison most of the others now on the roster.

I follow the Big 10 closely and Vonleh is a heck of a player.  He's a great rebounder and has a good mid-range jumper.   Indiana didn't run any plays for him.   He's got great potential and can run the floor also.   

[nickagneta]

There's ton of logic there because your chances of not getting the top three pick are still greater than landing it. So regardless of the percentages, you are still fighting a losing battle and relying on luck. Therefore, you have no certainty.

That's logical.

And what did we blow tonight? We followed the tanking game plan that people have set out to perfection. We sat out possibly our three best players over the last couple months. We played and even started our rookies. We played the D-league guys big minutes. We did everything a good tanking team is supposed to do.

After doing all that you can't go ask players to throw the game. Not only is that against league rules, it might be against the law. The team shot awesome and the Cavs no showed. We won. When you do everything right to tank and still win, can you really claim you blew your chances at tanking? Is that really a fair assessment?

[PhoSita]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick?

Oh, I'm well aware that there's no certainty at all. 

I just see how people are going nuts over a couple of wins at the end of the season here, and I can only imagine the sky-is-falling moaning that will happen if the Celtics end up outside of the top 3, let alone falling outside of the top 5.

I'm just sayin' -- there are nice players that we can get excited about who will almost certainly be there when the Celtics are picking, even if the ping pong balls aren't especially kind.  Focus on them.

Pin all your hopes on a player (or a few players) that your team has a less than 3 in 10 chance of being able to draft, and you're setting yourself up to be sad.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Hmm.

Gordon's offensively challenged—we've got enough players like that already.

Smart's a headcase. Don't need that.

Vonleh? Don't know much about him. But Danny needs to get busy settling on a "power forward of the future" and then jettison most of the others now on the roster.

I follow the Big 10 closely and Vonleh is a heck of a player.  He's a great rebounder and has a good mid-range jumper.   Indiana didn't run any plays for him.   He's got great potential and can run the floor also.

I've no doubt he's a good player; he seems like he'd be a solid rotation guy in the NBA. My point is that we have more than enough power forwards already, so there's no point in drafting another unless Danny wants him to be the team's primary power forward for the next half decade or more—in which case, he needs to get rid of the power-forward surplus of the current roster.

[nickagneta]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick?

Oh, I'm well aware that there's no certainty at all. 

I just see how people are going nuts over a couple of wins at the end of the season here, and I can only imagine the sky-is-falling moaning that will happen if the Celtics end up outside of the top 3, let alone falling outside of the top 5.

I'm just sayin' -- there are nice players that we can get excited about who will almost certainly be there when the Celtics are picking, even if the ping pong balls aren't especially kind.  Focus on them.

Pin all your hopes on a player (or a few players) that your team has a less than 3 in 10 chance of being able to draft, and you're setting yourself up to be sad.

Ahhhh, that better explains it. I got a different vibe reading the OP. TP

[Celtics18]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick? I don't get the roller coaster ride that some posters have that ties the certainty of a top 3 pick with finishing in the third or fourth slot and the certainty that landing in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot lands us a 6-9 draft pick.

The percentages say its a better chance to get if you finish 3rd or 4th but just like finishing 5th, 6th, or 7th, finishing 3rd or 4th still gives you a better chance of not being in the top three than it does being in the top three.

Its a crap shoot. Its a lottery. Anything can happen. I know I will still be glued to the TV waiting to see the envelopes opening hoping for a top three pick, but there was never any certainty one way or the other that finishing slightly lower in the standings was going to get us in the top three.

So I say, don't prepare for anything because we don't know anything yet about were the C's will pick. It seems every year a team in the 5h, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th slots ends up picking in the top three. Why not again this year and why not the Celtics? Just have some hope people.

maybe because, as much as it is a lottery, we cut our odds in half these last few games, it's a real, legit blow to our chances of a top 3 pick. The stats don't lie.

A chance is still just that, a chance. Its not a certainty. And honestly, its as good a chance as most thought we would have when the season started.

there is no logic in that statement though. When your odds of a top 3 pick go from about 46 percent to about 22 percent for winning 2-3 meaningless games at the end of the season, you screwed up big time.

As Nick said, what else do you want them to do?  You want them to actively throw games a la the 1919 Black Sox?

And as the awesome Chris Herren kept saying (I really hope they keep him around--he's fun), it's a testament to Coach Stevens and the players how they are competing in these last few games.  To me, that kind of stuff bodes well for the future.  I know I'm in the vast minority on that opinion, though. 

[PhoSita]

I've no doubt he's a good player; he seems like he'd be a solid rotation guy in the NBA. My point is that we have more than enough power forwards already, so there's no point in drafting another unless Danny wants him to be the team's primary power forward for the next half decade or more—in which case, he needs to get rid of the power-forward surplus of the current roster.

In today's NBA, I think there's a lot less positional rigidity at the big man spots.  I think teams can successfully run out two guys who might be considered PFs first and foremost, as long as their games are complementary.

If Vonleh is the shot blocker / rim protector that I've seen him made out to be (at least potentially), then I think he could fit with Sullinger or Olynyk.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I've no doubt he's a good player; he seems like he'd be a solid rotation guy in the NBA. My point is that we have more than enough power forwards already, so there's no point in drafting another unless Danny wants him to be the team's primary power forward for the next half decade or more—in which case, he needs to get rid of the power-forward surplus of the current roster.

In today's NBA, I think there's a lot less positional rigidity at the big man spots.  I think teams can successfully run out two guys who might be considered PFs first and foremost, as long as their games are complementary.

If Vonleh is the shot blocker / rim protector that I've seen him made out to be (at least potentially), then I think he could fit with Sullinger or Olynyk.

Eh, maybe. But I'm a firm believer that a team needs legitimate length and size to win a title; the only team in recent history that HASN'T followed that formula is the Heat, but they also happen to have the best player in the world. Of course, Danny doesn't have to get that size in the draft, but I doubt Boston's going to get a title without getting it somewhere. They're not going to win a title with a bunch of 6-9 "centers."

[Celtics18]

I've no doubt he's a good player; he seems like he'd be a solid rotation guy in the NBA. My point is that we have more than enough power forwards already, so there's no point in drafting another unless Danny wants him to be the team's primary power forward for the next half decade or more—in which case, he needs to get rid of the power-forward surplus of the current roster.

In today's NBA, I think there's a lot less positional rigidity at the big man spots.  I think teams can successfully run out two guys who might be considered PFs first and foremost, as long as their games are complementary.

If Vonleh is the shot blocker / rim protector that I've seen him made out to be (at least potentially), then I think he could fit with Sullinger or Olynyk.

Eh, maybe. But I'm a firm believer that a team needs legitimate length and size to win a title; the only team in recent history that HASN'T followed that formula is the Heat, but they also happen to have the best player in the world. Of course, Danny doesn't have to get that size in the draft, but I doubt Boston's going to get a title without getting it somewhere. They're not going to win a title with a bunch of 6-9 "centers."

The Celtics did fairly well with a 6'9" center back in the sixties. 

[footey]

I like Gordon.  Not so much Smart or Vonleigh. 

While I was a strong proponent of tanking the last few games of the season, the fact that we won the last two games sends the following message to me: Danny Ainge really doesn't think much of this draft's so called big 3 or big 4.  If he did, I think we would have found a way to keep losing. I hope Danny is right.

[PhoSita]

I like Gordon.  Not so much Smart or Vonleigh. 

While I was a strong proponent of tanking the last few games of the season, the fact that we won the last two games sends the following message to me: Danny Ainge really doesn't think much of this draft's so called big 3 or big 4.  If he did, I think we would have found a way to keep losing. I hope Danny is right.

I'm not sure what more they could have done to ensure a loss tonight, unless they just put Pressey, Babb, Johnson, Bass, and Anthony out there and played them all 48 minutes.

[Kane3387]

I like Gordon.  Not so much Smart or Vonleigh. 

While I was a strong proponent of tanking the last few games of the season, the fact that we won the last two games sends the following message to me: Danny Ainge really doesn't think much of this draft's so called big 3 or big 4.  If he did, I think we would have found a way to keep losing. I hope Danny is right.

I'm not sure what more they could have done to ensure a loss tonight, unless they just put Pressey, Babb, Johnson, Bass, and Anthony out there and played them all 48 minutes.

Yeah they benched everyone. Will be interesting to see the lineup on Monday. Maybe we will get lucky and tie for fourth. As crazy as it sounds we could have a four way tie for third but that's likely unlikely. Of course all of this would be possible if we lose these next two.

[LarBrd33]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick?

Oh, I'm well aware that there's no certainty at all. 

I just see how people are going nuts over a couple of wins at the end of the season here, and I can only imagine the sky-is-falling moaning that will happen if the Celtics end up outside of the top 3, let alone falling outside of the top 5.

I'm just sayin' -- there are nice players that we can get excited about who will almost certainly be there when the Celtics are picking, even if the ping pong balls aren't especially kind.  Focus on them.

Pin all your hopes on a player (or a few players) that your team has a less than 3 in 10 chance of being able to draft, and you're setting yourself up to be sad.

I can't lose my mind over us winning the final 4 games and dropping to the #7 pick.  It's fine.  I was vocal all season about my support of Ainge tanking the season.  Anytime someone burped about "It's not worth it just to chase Wiggins", I'd point out that I was content with a Top 8 pick.   So whatever.  More than likely we're getting a Top 8 pick.  I know some experts are saying this is really top-heavy, but it has fluctuated throughout the year.  At one point it seemed as long as you landed a Top 8 pick you were going to be fine... Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum, Smart, Randle, Vonleh, Gordon ... Well it looks like we'll end up with one of those guys.  THe season has been a success.  Let the Rondo-less Celtics close the season in style. 

It sucks that we came so close to getting Top 3, but most felt we were never bad enough to actually fully bottom out.  Keeping Rondo and still falling into the bottom 8 is still a pretty successful season.  Glad this is how the season turned out... I'd hate to have made the playoffs with a sub .500 record and picked 15th.  It would be rather bushleague of me to spend the entire season crying about our need for a Top 8 pick, only to throw a fit when we failed to end up in the Top 4. 

The biggest surprise for me this season was that we actually played worse with Rondo on the court.  I really thought we needed to trade him to secure a  Top 8 pick.  Turns out, we only won 20% of the games he played.  As Simmons pointed out, Rondo has been the best thing that could have ever happened to the tank effort this year.  I really didn't see that coming.  I gave Rondo too much credit.  Classic homer move.

[obnoxiousmime]

As expected the weak-ass eastern conference schedule comes back to bite us when comparing final records to western teams such as the lakers and jazz. No matter what happens I just hope we don't end up picking later than LA.