Prepare for Gordon, Vonleh, or Smart

[LarBrd33]

Do me a favor and just list out the top 10.  The #10 pick is still in play. 

Crossing my fingers the experts are wrong and there isn't a massive drop-off after the elite 4.  But i set out this season wanting a Top 8 pick... and that's what we're most likely getting barring some flukey ping pong balls. 

[BballTim]

  It's a pretty vague exercise. Someone tells you player X might be available, you tell them why you think the team won't trade him, and neither of you have any idea whether you're right or not. The same thing's true about the draft. Pick any player in the draft and try and convince someone that doesn't like him that the player will probably be a franchise player and not a bust.  It won't go so well.

Sure.  But I see this notion get thrown around a lot around here, but I rarely see any plausible scenarios.  I'm not convinced it's as attractive or likely an option as some might think.  Teams aren't just jumping at a chance to give away All-Star caliber players for picks.

  Other than some Celts fans and Rondo, at least.

  If you say you can't think of any stars that will be traded in the next year or so I might agree, if you said that means it's unlikely any stars will be traded in that time I'd be awfully doubtful. Start listing stars that have been traded since 2007. KG, Ray, Pau, AI, CP, Deron, Melo, Dwight, Shaq, Harden Iggy, Billups, and I've probably missed a few. That doesn't take players that switched teams as free agents either.

[LilRip]

  It's a pretty vague exercise. Someone tells you player X might be available, you tell them why you think the team won't trade him, and neither of you have any idea whether you're right or not. The same thing's true about the draft. Pick any player in the draft and try and convince someone that doesn't like him that the player will probably be a franchise player and not a bust.  It won't go so well.

Sure.  But I see this notion get thrown around a lot around here, but I rarely see any plausible scenarios.  I'm not convinced it's as attractive or likely an option as some might think.  Teams aren't just jumping at a chance to give away All-Star caliber players for picks.

  Other than some Celts fans and Rondo, at least.

  If you say you can't think of any stars that will be traded in the next year or so I might agree, if you said that means it's unlikely any stars will be traded in that time I'd be awfully doubtful. Start listing stars that have been traded since 2007. KG, Ray, Pau, AI, CP, Deron, Melo, Dwight, Shaq, Harden Iggy, Billups, and I've probably missed a few. That doesn't take players that switched teams as free agents either.

how has the new CBA affected this though? I didn't follow all the CBA talk but i was under the impression that one of its main pillars was the whole "we want to make it harder for stars to move", due to the league moving towards "superteams", starting with the C's and ending with the Heat.

[PhoSita]

Do me a favor and just list out the top 10.  The #10 pick is still in play. 

Crossing my fingers the experts are wrong and there isn't a massive drop-off after the elite 4.  But i set out this season wanting a Top 8 pick... and that's what we're most likely getting barring some flukey ping pong balls.

It's still in play, but the chances of ending up with #10 are way lower than ending up with a Top 3 pick.  So I'm not going to dwell on that "worst case scenario" any more than I'm going to dwell on the "best case scenario" of getting Joabardrew Emwigker.

[Tr1boy]

Draft smart and trade rondo

Or draft gordon

[PhoSita]

  Other than some Celts fans and Rondo, at least.

  KG, Ray, Pau, AI, CP, Deron, Melo, Dwight, Shaq, Harden Iggy, Billups,

An informative list.

Of the players on that list, I think most were in situations that an educated observer might have seen as making a trade possible.  Usually stars that get traded are flawed in some way, or don't fit with their current teams plans.  Either that, or they are free agents to-be and have made known that they're interested in going elsewhere.

Deron is the one that stands out as being a surprise when he was traded, because he was still more than a year away from free agency.  But there was a major fight with Sloan (and Sloan resigning abrubtly, as I recall) that presaged the trade.


Second tier stars (as Billups and Iverson were at the time of those trades, for example), are more likely to get traded without so much hubbub and rumor-mongering beforehand.  But trading a top 10 pick for a second tier star, when all we have on the team currently is a still-recovering-from-a-torn-ACL second tier star, doesn't seem like a smart move to me.

[tomrod]

Im very ok with us taking Gordon tbh. Build a good defensive team with an effort mentality, then bring a star.

[PhoSita]

Im very ok with us taking Gordon tbh. Build a good defensive team with an effort mentality, then bring a star.

Yeah, draft Gordon and then make a move for Asik.  I'd love to see what Stevens could do defensively with the resulting unit.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Hmm.

Gordon's offensively challenged—we've got enough players like that already.

Smart's a headcase. Don't need that.

Vonleh? Don't know much about him. But Danny needs to get busy settling on a "power forward of the future" and then jettison most of the others now on the roster.

[nickagneta]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick? I don't get the roller coaster ride that some posters have that ties the certainty of a top 3 pick with finishing in the third or fourth slot and the certainty that landing in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot lands us a 6-9 draft pick.

The percentages say its a better chance to get if you finish 3rd or 4th but just like finishing 5th, 6th, or 7th, finishing 3rd or 4th still gives you a better chance of not being in the top three than it does being in the top three.

Its a crap shoot. Its a lottery. Anything can happen. I know I will still be glued to the TV waiting to see the envelopes opening hoping for a top three pick, but there was never any certainty one way or the other that finishing slightly lower in the standings was going to get us in the top three.

So I say, don't prepare for anything because we don't know anything yet about were the C's will pick. It seems every year a team in the 5h, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th slots ends up picking in the top three. Why not again this year and why not the Celtics? Just have some hope people.

[hpantazo]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick? I don't get the roller coaster ride that some posters have that ties the certainty of a top 3 pick with finishing in the third or fourth slot and the certainty that landing in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot lands us a 6-9 draft pick.

The percentages say its a better chance to get if you finish 3rd or 4th but just like finishing 5th, 6th, or 7th, finishing 3rd or 4th still gives you a better chance of not being in the top three than it does being in the top three.

Its a crap shoot. Its a lottery. Anything can happen. I know I will still be glued to the TV waiting to see the envelopes opening hoping for a top three pick, but there was never any certainty one way or the other that finishing slightly lower in the standings was going to get us in the top three.

So I say, don't prepare for anything because we don't know anything yet about were the C's will pick. It seems every year a team in the 5h, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th slots ends up picking in the top three. Why not again this year and why not the Celtics? Just have some hope people.

maybe because, as much as it is a lottery, we cut our odds in half these last few games, it's a real, legit blow to our chances of a top 3 pick. The stats don't lie.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Im very ok with us taking Gordon tbh. Build a good defensive team with an effort mentality, then bring a star.

Yeah, draft Gordon and then make a move for Asik.  I'd love to see what Stevens could do defensively with the resulting unit.

Yeah, that would be some sick defense. But the team would score only about 80 a game.

[nickagneta]

Why the certainty that the Celtics still can't land a top 3 pick? I don't get the roller coaster ride that some posters have that ties the certainty of a top 3 pick with finishing in the third or fourth slot and the certainty that landing in the 5th, 6th, or 7th slot lands us a 6-9 draft pick.

The percentages say its a better chance to get if you finish 3rd or 4th but just like finishing 5th, 6th, or 7th, finishing 3rd or 4th still gives you a better chance of not being in the top three than it does being in the top three.

Its a crap shoot. Its a lottery. Anything can happen. I know I will still be glued to the TV waiting to see the envelopes opening hoping for a top three pick, but there was never any certainty one way or the other that finishing slightly lower in the standings was going to get us in the top three.

So I say, don't prepare for anything because we don't know anything yet about were the C's will pick. It seems every year a team in the 5h, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th slots ends up picking in the top three. Why not again this year and why not the Celtics? Just have some hope people.

maybe because, as much as it is a lottery, we cut our odds in half these last few games, it's a real, legit blow to our chances of a top 3 pick. The stats don't lie.

A chance is still just that, a chance. Its not a certainty. And honestly, its as good a chance as most thought we would have when the season started.

[Celtics18]

Do me a favor and just list out the top 10.  The #10 pick is still in play. 

Crossing my fingers the experts are wrong and there isn't a massive drop-off after the elite 4.  But i set out this season wanting a Top 8 pick... and that's what we're most likely getting barring some flukey ping pong balls.

The experts aren't saying there's a massive drop off after the elite 4.  If you have Exum as one of the 4, you've got it wrong.  It's more accurate to have him grouped with the next five of Randle, Exum, Smart, Vonleh, and Gordon.

Or, is it Randle that you are including in that top four?

[hpantazo]

Do me a favor and just list out the top 10.  The #10 pick is still in play. 

Crossing my fingers the experts are wrong and there isn't a massive drop-off after the elite 4.  But i set out this season wanting a Top 8 pick... and that's what we're most likely getting barring some flukey ping pong balls.

The experts aren't saying there's a massive drop off after the elite 4.  If you have Exum as one of the 4, you've got it wrong.  It's more accurate to have him grouped with the next five of Randle, Exum, Smart, Vonleh, and Gordon.

and Parker may not declare, and Embiid has back issues. It's more like Wiggins or bust, and that's if you really believe in Wiggins.