Author Topic: My Celtics 2014 Big Board  (Read 16182 times)

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Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #30 on: April 17, 2014, 10:26:35 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'm not even exactly sure what you mean when you say that it takes time to rebuild a contender.  If you are saying that we need multiple years in the lottery, I would disagree with that.

If you are saying that you don't think it's likely that we'll be contending for an NBA championship by next season, I'd probably agree with that. 

 


I'm saying that there are a few basic steps to building a contender.

a) Put together the key pieces that form your foundation
b) Get those pieces to fit together and assemble a supporting cast around them
c) Wait for the team to learn to win together

Every once in a while, all three of those steps happen within the space of a single season or two.  Far more often than that, it takes more like 3-5 years, at least.


I mean, take a look at the upper echelon of teams in the league right now.  How many of them managed to get to where they are without spending a few years in the lottery?
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #31 on: April 17, 2014, 10:34:26 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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when I look at other teams in the NBA - not even legit title contenders, but teams like Golden St, Portland, Chicago, Washington, New Orleans, to name a few, they have a lot more talent than we do that they'll be able to continue to grow and improve with. 

This is a really great point.

All too often on this forum I see people just dismiss out of hand a lot of the other teams in the league.  Like just because our team is the Celtics they are destined to rise again to the top of the pack.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #32 on: April 17, 2014, 11:37:35 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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I'm not even exactly sure what you mean when you say that it takes time to rebuild a contender.  If you are saying that we need multiple years in the lottery, I would disagree with that.

If you are saying that you don't think it's likely that we'll be contending for an NBA championship by next season, I'd probably agree with that. 

 


I'm saying that there are a few basic steps to building a contender.

a) Put together the key pieces that form your foundation
b) Get those pieces to fit together and assemble a supporting cast around them
c) Wait for the team to learn to win together

Every once in a while, all three of those steps happen within the space of a single season or two.  Far more often than that, it takes more like 3-5 years, at least.


I mean, take a look at the upper echelon of teams in the league right now.  How many of them managed to get to where they are without spending a few years in the lottery?

Every team in the league--except the Spurs--has spent a few years in the lottery.  So, if 29 out of 30 teams have spent a few years in the lottery, it doesn't logically follow to me that the primary reason that the top teams are where they are is because the spent a few years in the lottery. 

     
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #33 on: April 17, 2014, 11:55:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Every team in the league--except the Spurs--has spent a few years in the lottery.  So, if 29 out of 30 teams have spent a few years in the lottery, it doesn't logically follow to me that the primary reason that the top teams are where they are is because the spent a few years in the lottery. 

     




Sigh.  I'm so tired of going around in these circles.

All I'm suggesting is that it takes time.   Rome wasn't built in a day, and NBA contenders (or even above average NBA teams) are not built in a season or two. 

I'm not trying to make any claims about causation, as you're implying (i.e. teams become good because they spend time in the lottery).  That's an entirely different discussion, which has been hashed out to the point that the phrase "ad nauseum" begins to have a literal meaning.

You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #34 on: April 17, 2014, 11:55:59 PM »

Offline esel1000

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It's nice to think that Gordon/Vonleh/Smart is the worst we can do in this draft. Top 8 no matter what. Hopefully top 3 of course :)

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #35 on: April 17, 2014, 11:57:05 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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when I look at other teams in the NBA - not even legit title contenders, but teams like Golden St, Portland, Chicago, Washington, New Orleans, to name a few, they have a lot more talent than we do that they'll be able to continue to grow and improve with. 

This is a really great point.

All too often on this forum I see people just dismiss out of hand a lot of the other teams in the league.  Like just because our team is the Celtics they are destined to rise again to the top of the pack.
I think it's more a vote of confidence towards the management than anything. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston contending again before Minnesota, New Orleans, Washington or Sacramento.

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #36 on: April 18, 2014, 12:03:44 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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Every team in the league--except the Spurs--has spent a few years in the lottery.  So, if 29 out of 30 teams have spent a few years in the lottery, it doesn't logically follow to me that the primary reason that the top teams are where they are is because the spent a few years in the lottery. 

     




Sigh.  I'm so tired of going around in these circles.

All I'm suggesting is that it takes time.   Rome wasn't built in a day, and NBA contenders (or even above average NBA teams) are not built in a season or two.

I'm not trying to make any claims about causation, as you're implying (i.e. teams become good because they spend time in the lottery).  That's an entirely different discussion, which has been hashed out to the point that the phrase "ad nauseum" begins to have a literal meaning.

Sure, they generally aren't built in a day.  What I don't get is that you seem to take issue with the fact that folks are suggesting ways to try to begin to build that team.

That's all we are doing around here.  I grant you that some of the ideas thrown around may be unrealistic, but, what the heck, they can be fun and they seem plausible from behind our computer screens. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #37 on: April 18, 2014, 12:04:52 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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when I look at other teams in the NBA - not even legit title contenders, but teams like Golden St, Portland, Chicago, Washington, New Orleans, to name a few, they have a lot more talent than we do that they'll be able to continue to grow and improve with. 

This is a really great point.

All too often on this forum I see people just dismiss out of hand a lot of the other teams in the league.  Like just because our team is the Celtics they are destined to rise again to the top of the pack.
I think it's more a vote of confidence towards the management than anything. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston contending again before Minnesota, New Orleans, Washington or Sacramento.

Management goes a long way in this league, so that's a fair point.  However, Sacramento is under new management these days (no more Petrie), Minnesota has gotten rid of Kaaaahhhn, Washington has made some solid moves lately, and I've liked what Dell Demps has been doing in New Orleans.

Also, the fact is that having a franchise superstar gives you a lot more margin for error in this league.  It's not a cure-all, because if you screw up too badly and too often, the guy will just leave.  The teams you mentioned all have young stars who I'd bet on long before I'd throw in my lot with Rajon Rondo or Jared Sullinger. 

Minnesota is in the tightest spot of the bunch because of the worst part of Kahn's legacy: not giving Kevin Love a full contract extension a few years back.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #38 on: April 18, 2014, 12:07:05 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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I mean, take a look at the upper echelon of teams in the league right now.  How many of them managed to get to where they are without spending a few years in the lottery?


Also, pardon my misreading, but it sure seemed like you were trying to imply causation with this statement.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #39 on: April 18, 2014, 12:11:37 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Sure, they generally aren't built in a day.  What I don't get is that you seem to take issue with the fact that folks are suggesting ways to try to begin to build that team.


I take issue with what I perceive as a desire to "reload" ASAP with players who are good now at all costs.  Give me my marshmallow now!  I don't want to watch young players figure it out and endure another losing season!

"If we don't get a guaranteed superstar at the top of the draft we should just trade the pick."

"We can't trade Rondo because he's already an All-Star and he's our best chance to become good again right away."


Often it's not even really thought out.  Who you gonna trade for?  Is the resulting team even gonna be that good?


The thing is, it doesn't seem like it's about "building."  It's not about a gradual process, or a long-term strategy.  It's about making a couple of trades and bam! our team is good again.  Rebuild finished.  Now we can go back to talking about "Celtic Pride" again instead of hashing out the tanking vs anti-tanking arguments for the billionth time.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #40 on: April 18, 2014, 12:14:50 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I mean, take a look at the upper echelon of teams in the league right now.  How many of them managed to get to where they are without spending a few years in the lottery?


Also, pardon my misreading, but it sure seemed like you were trying to imply causation with this statement.

It's understandable that you read that into the quoted sentence.  After all, we've been sparring partners in the "lottery picks are important" debate many times before.

But really, all I'm suggesting here is that teams usually spend a few years being bad while they gather and identify the right pieces and play them together long enough for them to figure out how to win.  I don't have a "pro-tank" agenda here.

The lottery picks that result from those "building" seasons are a part of it -- they undeniably help the process in some way, more often than not.  But the picks are beside the point that I'm trying to make here.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #41 on: April 18, 2014, 12:21:27 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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Sure, they generally aren't built in a day.  What I don't get is that you seem to take issue with the fact that folks are suggesting ways to try to begin to build that team.


I take issue with what I perceive as a desire to "reload" ASAP with players who are good now at all costs.  Give me my marshmallow now!  I don't want to watch young players figure it out and endure another losing season!

"If we don't get a guaranteed superstar at the top of the draft we should just trade the pick."

"We can't trade Rondo because he's already an All-Star and he's our best chance to become good again right away."


Often it's not even really thought out.  Who you gonna trade for?  Is the resulting team even gonna be that good?


The thing is, it doesn't seem like it's about "building."  It's not about a gradual process, or a long-term strategy.  It's about making a couple of trades and bam! our team is good again.  Rebuild finished.  Now we can go back to talking about "Celtic Pride" again instead of hashing out the tanking vs anti-tanking arguments for the billionth time.

Well, I don't know about you, but I want to see improvement next year.  I don't think title contention is a strong likelihood, but I wouldn't mind a few moves that start to move us further in the right direction.

I also don't rule out the possibility that Danny might look to use his best assets to make some kind of big move. 

I mean, he has famously done it before, after all. 

Now, give me my marshmallow!! 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #42 on: April 18, 2014, 12:32:54 AM »

Offline MBunge

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The vast majority of teams that enter a rebuilding phase spend at least a few years in that rebuilding phase.  Most teams never find that "quick fix."  More often than not, the attempt to find that "fix" ends up putting you in the position Detroit has been in -- multiple times -- over the past 6 years.

Most will point to the summer of 2007; however, that was, first of all, a remarkable and unique set of circumstances and, second of all, the result of multiple years of positioning for a change.

I don't see a KG available out there.  I'm not even sure there's a Ray Allen available out there.


It's possible that Danny will pull a rabbit out of a hat, seemingly, but I think the odds are that we're looking at at least another year or two of watching a fairly young and inexperienced team cut its teeth against more talented and more experienced opponents.  That's the circle of life in the NBA.


Now, as to the "suck for a very long time" thing, I guess that's a matter of perspective.  Personally, I don't view being in rebuilding for a few years as "a very long time," and as long as there are exciting young players to watch develop and grow together (there are already a couple on the team), I'm okay with it.  In my view, "a very long time" would be 5+ years.

How many teams in the NBA have been bad for that long?  Few teams win titles.  Slightly more become serious contenders.  The group of non-contenders but playoff locks is a bit bigger still.  The plurality of the NBA seems to be teams that range from horrible to fringe playoff possibility.

I don't really see a pattern where teams get bad, then good, then bad again.  "Rebuilding" is more like a residence than a way station.

Mike

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #43 on: April 18, 2014, 12:41:12 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I don't really see a pattern where teams get bad, then good, then bad again.  "Rebuilding" is more like a residence than a way station.

Mike

Eh, I think this is where the management thing comes in.  Some teams enter rebuilding, have some fits and starts where they seem to be coming out of it, but never really break free.

Rebuilding can be a bit of a tar pit in that way.

But teams that are managed well can track a trajectory out of it, given a reasonable amount of time, I think.  Luck is always a necessary element, though.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My Celtics 2014 Big Board
« Reply #44 on: April 18, 2014, 12:48:05 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Well, I don't know about you, but I want to see improvement next year.  I don't think title contention is a strong likelihood, but I wouldn't mind a few moves that start to move us further in the right direction.

I agree about improvement and seeing a general movement in the right direction.

I'd say, though -- improvement for the players who are still here.  And movement in the right direction might not necessarily mean the team wins a lot more games next year.  Probably still closer to 30 than 40, is my guess.

For me, I'm really hoping that fewer rotation minutes next season are eaten up by guys with no future here and no ceiling above what they already are.

I'm hoping for more moments when I feel like I'm getting a real glimpse of the future of this team -- all too often this year I felt like I was just looking at a jumbled mess, like one of those puzzles where a picture is divided into squares that are moved all around.

You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain