Bold Prediction We draft a sophomore with are 2nd pick

[KG Living Legend]

 The guys I can see available Cauley Stein, Harzell, Anderson, Hood, Grant, Adams, And Glen Robinson All sophomores.   So we have a good chance to get a guy with tons of experience and he will be 20 years old so really mature as well.

[clover]

Isn't that the way it tends to go--lottery picks are freshmen, late first rounders are sophomores, and second rounders are juniors or seniors?

[csfansince60s]

 The guys I can see available Cauley Stein, Harzell, Anderson, Hood, Grant, Adams, And Glen Robinson All sophomores.   So we have a good chance to get a guy with tons of experience and he will be 20 years old so really mature as well.

Not disagreeing with you, but the highlighted part makes me feel REALLY old.......

[saltlover]

Isn't that the way it tends to go--lottery picks are freshmen, late first rounders are sophomores, and second rounders are juniors or seniors?

Not entirely.  Last year the top 10 contained 5 sophomores, 3 freshmen, 1 junior, and 1 senior.
2012 had 5 froshes, 3 sophs, 1 junior, 1 senior.
2011 had 4 froshes, 1 soph, junior, and senior, and 3 foreign players.  But that was a weird year because of the impending lockout, which affected the draft decision of a lot of players (hence why there were so many foreign players in the top 10).
2010 had 3 frosh, 4 sophs, and 3 juniors.

So a 15-13 freshmen-sophomore ratio in the top 10, with a decent number of juniors also selected.  And if you extend that through the end of the lottery (pick 14) freshman and sophomores are tied, and juniors gain a lot of ground (19 freshmen, 19 sophomores, and 13 juniors).

[D.o.s.]

Were any of y'all particularly "mature" at 20?

[BigAlTheFuture]

Staukas please

[clover]

Isn't that the way it tends to go--lottery picks are freshmen, late first rounders are sophomores, and second rounders are juniors or seniors?

Not entirely.  Last year the top 10 contained 5 sophomores, 3 freshmen, 1 junior, and 1 senior.
2012 had 5 froshes, 3 sophs, 1 junior, 1 senior.
2011 had 4 froshes, 1 soph, junior, and senior, and 3 foreign players.  But that was a weird year because of the impending lockout, which affected the draft decision of a lot of players (hence why there were so many foreign players in the top 10).
2010 had 3 frosh, 4 sophs, and 3 juniors.

So a 15-13 freshmen-sophomore ratio in the top 10, with a decent number of juniors also selected.  And if you extend that through the end of the lottery (pick 14) freshman and sophomores are tied, and juniors gain a lot of ground (19 freshmen, 19 sophomores, and 13 juniors).

So still more likely frosh early than any other class level. Haven't done the count, but wouldn't be surprised if more likely sophomores in the late first than any other class level as well.

[csfansince60s]

Were any of y'all particularly "mature" at 20?

TP, that was what i was subtly referring to in my above post.

If you asked my wife, she'll tell you I'm not particularly mature even after 4 kids and 26 years of marriage.

So yah, 20 kinda made me laugh.

[saltlover]

Isn't that the way it tends to go--lottery picks are freshmen, late first rounders are sophomores, and second rounders are juniors or seniors?

Not entirely.  Last year the top 10 contained 5 sophomores, 3 freshmen, 1 junior, and 1 senior.
2012 had 5 froshes, 3 sophs, 1 junior, 1 senior.
2011 had 4 froshes, 1 soph, junior, and senior, and 3 foreign players.  But that was a weird year because of the impending lockout, which affected the draft decision of a lot of players (hence why there were so many foreign players in the top 10).
2010 had 3 frosh, 4 sophs, and 3 juniors.

So a 15-13 freshmen-sophomore ratio in the top 10, with a decent number of juniors also selected.  And if you extend that through the end of the lottery (pick 14) freshman and sophomores are tied, and juniors gain a lot of ground (19 freshmen, 19 sophomores, and 13 juniors).

So still more likely frosh early than any other class level. Haven't done the count, but wouldn't be surprised if more likely sophomores in the late first than any other class level as well.

No, at lottery equally likely frosh and sophomore based on the prior four years, and not enough of a sample to say definitively which is more likely in the top 10 since they're so close.

Don't have the time to look, but I'd bet if you broke the draft into thirds, sophomores and juniors would dominate the middle third, with frosh overtaking sophs in the final third (those guys that came out too early but still have a lot of potential and are worth taking a gamble on.)  The primary point being the the draftees don't completely get older as you get later in the draft.

[clover]

Isn't that the way it tends to go--lottery picks are freshmen, late first rounders are sophomores, and second rounders are juniors or seniors?

Not entirely.  Last year the top 10 contained 5 sophomores, 3 freshmen, 1 junior, and 1 senior.
2012 had 5 froshes, 3 sophs, 1 junior, 1 senior.
2011 had 4 froshes, 1 soph, junior, and senior, and 3 foreign players.  But that was a weird year because of the impending lockout, which affected the draft decision of a lot of players (hence why there were so many foreign players in the top 10).
2010 had 3 frosh, 4 sophs, and 3 juniors.

So a 15-13 freshmen-sophomore ratio in the top 10, with a decent number of juniors also selected.  And if you extend that through the end of the lottery (pick 14) freshman and sophomores are tied, and juniors gain a lot of ground (19 freshmen, 19 sophomores, and 13 juniors).

So still more likely frosh early than any other class level. Haven't done the count, but wouldn't be surprised if more likely sophomores in the late first than any other class level as well.

No, at lottery equally likely frosh and sophomore based on the prior four years, and not enough of a sample to say definitively which is more likely in the top 10 since they're so close.

Don't have the time to look, but I'd bet if you broke the draft into thirds, sophomores and juniors would dominate the middle third, with frosh overtaking sophs in the final third (those guys that came out too early but still have a lot of potential and are worth taking a gamble on.)  The primary point being the the draftees don't completely get older as you get later in the draft.

So you don't think they tend to get older later in the draft? That was my point and your tiny data set supports that there are more frosh than any other class early on. I really don't get what you're arguing here.

[saltlover]

Isn't that the way it tends to go--lottery picks are freshmen, late first rounders are sophomores, and second rounders are juniors or seniors?

Not entirely.  Last year the top 10 contained 5 sophomores, 3 freshmen, 1 junior, and 1 senior.
2012 had 5 froshes, 3 sophs, 1 junior, 1 senior.
2011 had 4 froshes, 1 soph, junior, and senior, and 3 foreign players.  But that was a weird year because of the impending lockout, which affected the draft decision of a lot of players (hence why there were so many foreign players in the top 10).
2010 had 3 frosh, 4 sophs, and 3 juniors.

So a 15-13 freshmen-sophomore ratio in the top 10, with a decent number of juniors also selected.  And if you extend that through the end of the lottery (pick 14) freshman and sophomores are tied, and juniors gain a lot of ground (19 freshmen, 19 sophomores, and 13 juniors).

So still more likely frosh early than any other class level. Haven't done the count, but wouldn't be surprised if more likely sophomores in the late first than any other class level as well.

No, at lottery equally likely frosh and sophomore based on the prior four years, and not enough of a sample to say definitively which is more likely in the top 10 since they're so close.

Don't have the time to look, but I'd bet if you broke the draft into thirds, sophomores and juniors would dominate the middle third, with frosh overtaking sophs in the final third (those guys that came out too early but still have a lot of potential and are worth taking a gamble on.)  The primary point being the the draftees don't completely get older as you get later in the draft.

So you don't think they tend to get older later in the draft? That was my point and your tiny data set supports that there are more frosh than any other class early on. I really don't get what you're arguing here.

My argument is primarily that sophomores and juniors appear a lot earlier in the draft than is generally recognized, such that in no draft have freshmen been even the majority of the lottery.  My untested hypothesis is the the back 5-10 picks of the first round and the early part of the second round sees a spike in freshmen drafted relative to the 10-15 picks prior.

[clover]

I'm only seeing one freshman taken out of the lottery in the first last year, and two in the entire second round. Looks like international players and juniors were most common in the second half of the first, and most of the seniors indeed went in the second. Haven't looked at any other years.

[nickagneta]

Probably a good time to look at the actual results since 2005 when the rules became the current rules

FR = freshmen
SO = sophomore
JR = junior
SE = senoir
FO = foreign/D League

2006
Picks 1-10    1 FR,  3 SO, 1 JR,  3 SE,  2 FO
Picks 11-20  1 FR,  1 SO, 3 JR,  3 SE,  2 FO
Picks 21-30  0 FR,  3 SO, 3 JR,  2 SE,  2 FO
2nd round    0 FR,  1 SO, 7 JR,  12 SE,  10 FO

2007
Picks 1-10    5 FR,  0 SO, 4 JR,  0 SE,  1 FO
Picks 11-20  2 FR,  2 SO, 3 JR,  2 SE,  1 FO
Picks 21-30  1 FR,  1 SO, 1 JR,  4 SE,  3 FO
2nd round    0 FR,  2 SO, 6 JR,  14 SE,  8 FO

2008
Picks 1-10    5 FR,  3 SO, 1 JR,  0 SE,  1 FO
Picks 11-20  3 FR,  3 SO, 1 JR,  2 SE,  1 FO
Picks 21-30  2 FR,  2 SO, 1 JR,  3 SE,  2 FO
2nd round    1 FR,  1 SO, 6 JR,  14 SE,  8 FO

2009
Picks 1-10    2 FR,  3 SO, 3 JR,  0 SE,  2 FO
Picks 11-20  1 FR,  3 SO, 3 JR,  3 SE,  0 FO
Picks 21-30  1 FR,  0 SO, 2 JR,  3 SE,  4 FO
2nd round    0 FR,  3 SO, 5 JR,  15 SE,  7 FO

2010
Picks 1-10    3 FR,  4 SO, 3 JR,  0 SE,  0 FO
Picks 11-20  3 FR,  2 SO, 4 JR,  0 SE,  1 FO
Picks 21-30  1 FR,  2 SO, 2 JR,  5 SE,  0 FO
2nd round    3 FR,  4 SO, 5 JR,  12 SE,  6 FO

2011
Picks 1-10    4 FR,  1 SO, 1 JR,  1 SE,  3 FO
Picks 11-20  1 FR,  2 SO, 6 JR,  0 SE,  1 FO
Picks 21-30  1 FR,  1 SO, 1 JR,  6 SE,  1 FO
2nd round    1 FR,  3 SO, 6 JR,  12 SE,  8 FO

2012
Picks 1-10    5 FR,  3 SO, 1 JR,  1 SE,  0 FO
Picks 11-20  1 FR,  5 SO, 1 JR,  2 SE,  1 FO
Picks 21-30  2 FR,  3 SO, 3 JR,  2 SE,  0 FO
2nd round    1 FR,  2 SO, 2 JR,  17 SE,  8 FO

2013
Picks 1-10    3 FR,  5 SO, 1 JR,  1 SE,  0 FO
Picks 11-20  2 FR,  2 SO, 2 JR,  0 SE,  4 FO
Picks 21-30  1 FR,  0 SO, 4 JR,  2 SE,  3 FO
2nd round    2 FR,  1 SO, 5 JR,  15 SE,  7 FO

TOTALS
Picks 1-10    28 FR,  22 SO, 15 JR,  6 SE,  9 FO
Picks 11-20  14 FR,  20 SO, 23 JR,  12 SE,  11 FO
Picks 21-30  9 FR,  12 SO, 17 JR,  27 SE,  15 FO
2nd round    8 FR,  17 SO, 42 JR,  111 SE,  62 FO

PERCENTAGE OF PLAYER CHOSEN IN EACH ROUND
Picks 1-10    35% FR,  27.5% SO, 18.75% JR,  7.5% SE,  11.25% FO
Picks 11-20  17.5% FR,  25% SO, 28.75% JR,  15% SE,  13.75% FO
Picks 21-30  11.25% FR,  15% SO, 21.25% JR,  33.75% SE,  18.75% FO
2nd round    3.33% FR,  7.08% SO, 17.5% JR,  46.25% SE,  25.83% FO

PERCENTAGE OF CLASS CHOSEN PER POSITION
Picks 1-10    47.45%% FR,  30.99% SO, 15.46% JR,  3.84 SE,  9.27% FO
Picks 11-20  23.72% FR,  28.17% SO, 23.71% JR,  7.69% SE,  11.34% FO
Picks 21-30  15.25% FR,  16.9% SO, 17.52% JR,  17.31% SE,  15.46% FO
2nd round    13.56% FR,  23.94% SO, 43.3% JR,  71.15% SE,  63.97% FO

So interpret the results as you wish but I think a few things are very clear.

- Freshmen are most likely, 71+% of the time, to be chosen in the first 20 picks.
- Sophomores tend to be distributed most evenly throughout the draft in relation to where they are chosen
- Senoirs and Foreign/D-League players are most likely to be chosen in the 2nd round by far.
- The numbers reflect what the OP suggested might be the truth regarding as you get older the chances are you are probably being picked later.

[clover]

Thanks, Nick--good work!