Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid

[Mr October]

Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I am not using blocks to judge his defense. They are only good in helping to judge rim protection - which is just one aspect of defense. I watched a bunch of his games, and he plays like a 19 year old on defense. He gets lost, and can get pushed around by stronger players. That's fine, he is just 19 years old. He has time to build his body and learn more fundamentals of team defense and man to man defense.

I Have to take back my comments about him only blocking 1.5 shots per game, clearly it has been a while since i looked at his stats! 2.6 per game in only 23 minutes is nice! He just doesn't look like an indimidating shot blocker/alterer in the course of a live game. I think he will get there. He has improved so much over the course of the season.

I would still take him number 1 even though I still think Wiggins and Parker edge him out as being more likely to be sure things. 19 year old bigs just come with risk, and i think Embiid is worth that risk.

I disagree strongly that blocks are an indication of 'rim protection'.

The way you measure 'rim protection' is by how small a share of your opponents shot attempts are dunks, layups or tip-ins.   That is far more about keeping bodies physically away from the rim than it is about blocking shots.

A big man who can properly hedge the pick & roll in the high-paint will do far more to limit shots 'at rim' than a guy who just blocks a lot of shots.

You might not be reading every word i am writing. I wrote that blocks "help" in judging rim protection. It is not the end all be all stat.

Do you think blocks are irrelevant when judging defense around the basket?

I completely agree that pick and roll defense, rotations, hedging, all that good stuff is critical. Kevin Garnett didnt have jaw dropping blocks numbers, yet he was one of the most elite defensive bigs at protecting the basket. 

[mmmmm]

Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I am not using blocks to judge his defense. They are only good in helping to judge rim protection - which is just one aspect of defense. I watched a bunch of his games, and he plays like a 19 year old on defense. He gets lost, and can get pushed around by stronger players. That's fine, he is just 19 years old. He has time to build his body and learn more fundamentals of team defense and man to man defense.

I Have to take back my comments about him only blocking 1.5 shots per game, clearly it has been a while since i looked at his stats! 2.6 per game in only 23 minutes is nice! He just doesn't look like an indimidating shot blocker/alterer in the course of a live game. I think he will get there. He has improved so much over the course of the season.

I would still take him number 1 even though I still think Wiggins and Parker edge him out as being more likely to be sure things. 19 year old bigs just come with risk, and i think Embiid is worth that risk.

I disagree strongly that blocks are an indication of 'rim protection'.

The way you measure 'rim protection' is by how small a share of your opponents shot attempts are dunks, layups or tip-ins.   That is far more about keeping bodies physically away from the rim than it is about blocking shots.

A big man who can properly hedge the pick & roll in the high-paint will do far more to limit shots 'at rim' than a guy who just blocks a lot of shots.

You might not be reading every word i am writing. I wrote that blocks "help" in judging rim protection. It is not the end all be all stat.

Do you think blocks are irrelevant when judging defense around the basket?

I completely agree that pick and roll defense, rotations, hedging, all that good stuff is critical. Kevin Garnett didnt have jaw dropping blocks numbers, yet he was one of the most elite defensive bigs at protecting the basket.

I would agree that blocks help in that they are an indication of good shot-contention form and timing instincts - which are good on-ball defensive skills to have.   But I think that their actual value is overrated by most folks.

[Mr October]

Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I am not using blocks to judge his defense. They are only good in helping to judge rim protection - which is just one aspect of defense. I watched a bunch of his games, and he plays like a 19 year old on defense. He gets lost, and can get pushed around by stronger players. That's fine, he is just 19 years old. He has time to build his body and learn more fundamentals of team defense and man to man defense.

I Have to take back my comments about him only blocking 1.5 shots per game, clearly it has been a while since i looked at his stats! 2.6 per game in only 23 minutes is nice! He just doesn't look like an indimidating shot blocker/alterer in the course of a live game. I think he will get there. He has improved so much over the course of the season.

I would still take him number 1 even though I still think Wiggins and Parker edge him out as being more likely to be sure things. 19 year old bigs just come with risk, and i think Embiid is worth that risk.

I disagree strongly that blocks are an indication of 'rim protection'.

The way you measure 'rim protection' is by how small a share of your opponents shot attempts are dunks, layups or tip-ins.   That is far more about keeping bodies physically away from the rim than it is about blocking shots.

A big man who can properly hedge the pick & roll in the high-paint will do far more to limit shots 'at rim' than a guy who just blocks a lot of shots.

You might not be reading every word i am writing. I wrote that blocks "help" in judging rim protection. It is not the end all be all stat.

Do you think blocks are irrelevant when judging defense around the basket?

I completely agree that pick and roll defense, rotations, hedging, all that good stuff is critical. Kevin Garnett didnt have jaw dropping blocks numbers, yet he was one of the most elite defensive bigs at protecting the basket.

I would agree that blocks help in that they are an indication of good shot-contention form and timing instincts - which are good on-ball defensive skills to have.   But I think that their actual value is overrated by most folks.

Agreed.

DeAndre Jordan, John Henson, Chris Anderson, Andre Drummond, Pau Gasol, Kris Humphries.

Nice shot blocking stats, mediocre defenders.

[mmmmm]

Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I am not using blocks to judge his defense. They are only good in helping to judge rim protection - which is just one aspect of defense. I watched a bunch of his games, and he plays like a 19 year old on defense. He gets lost, and can get pushed around by stronger players. That's fine, he is just 19 years old. He has time to build his body and learn more fundamentals of team defense and man to man defense.

I Have to take back my comments about him only blocking 1.5 shots per game, clearly it has been a while since i looked at his stats! 2.6 per game in only 23 minutes is nice! He just doesn't look like an indimidating shot blocker/alterer in the course of a live game. I think he will get there. He has improved so much over the course of the season.

I would still take him number 1 even though I still think Wiggins and Parker edge him out as being more likely to be sure things. 19 year old bigs just come with risk, and i think Embiid is worth that risk.

I disagree strongly that blocks are an indication of 'rim protection'.

The way you measure 'rim protection' is by how small a share of your opponents shot attempts are dunks, layups or tip-ins.   That is far more about keeping bodies physically away from the rim than it is about blocking shots.

A big man who can properly hedge the pick & roll in the high-paint will do far more to limit shots 'at rim' than a guy who just blocks a lot of shots.

You might not be reading every word i am writing. I wrote that blocks "help" in judging rim protection. It is not the end all be all stat.

Do you think blocks are irrelevant when judging defense around the basket?

I completely agree that pick and roll defense, rotations, hedging, all that good stuff is critical. Kevin Garnett didnt have jaw dropping blocks numbers, yet he was one of the most elite defensive bigs at protecting the basket.

I would agree that blocks help in that they are an indication of good shot-contention form and timing instincts - which are good on-ball defensive skills to have.   But I think that their actual value is overrated by most folks.

Agreed.

DeAndre Jordan, John Henson, Chris Anderson, Andre Drummond, Pau Gasol, Kris Humphries.

Nice shot blocking stats, mediocre defenders.

I think we are in violent agreement, sir.