Author Topic: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid  (Read 15364 times)

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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2014, 11:24:02 AM »

Offline saltlover

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its frustrating to think that ping pong balls are going to make or break this team


I don't think that's the case.  Good luck with the ping pong balls will make it a lot easier, but Ainge has enough pieces and ownership resources to turn things around one way or the other.  This isn't 1997 all over again.

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2014, 11:45:56 AM »

Offline Mr October

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Embiid's question marks: limited time playing high level basketball, age (he's older than Parker/Wiggins he's a month younger than Nerlens Noel), and his back.
I think you hit the major 3, but he also isn't exactly dominating college players, is only playing 23 minutes a night, isn't a superb rebounder (for his size and being in college), doesn't have much in the way of post moves, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I'd take him with the 1st pick because I think you have to given what he might someday become, but he has a ton of question marks.  More than any player currently in college in this draft in my opinion. 

EDIT: He might very well turn into the next Hakeem or he might become the next Olowokandi.  You just don't know with someone with as little basketball experience as he has, especially if his back is really a problem.  Again I take him #1, but I don't think I'm trading Parker or Wiggins plus someone like Cauley-Stein or TJ Warren for him.

I don't want to come across as a jerk but you saying he doesn't have much of post moves, makes me think you haven't watched him play much?  He has tremendous footwork and I have seen him use both hands in the post.  Very advanced for a guy that has only been playing hoops for 3 years..

On the stats front - you have to remember that he is playing with 3 other first round picks on his team.  All guys that score.  He could rebound better but he will, I feel that he is the safest pick after parker but with much higher potential.
I've seen him play a fair amount.  He is quick, but he doesn't have the power or strength at this point.  He has a very small frame for his height and I'd have real concerns about his durability, especially down low, and especially given he already has back issues.  He isn't a great jump shooter so he can't play outside and will have to be in the post.  He can certainly grow into his frame some, but that is where age starts to come in because he is older and thus is more developed physically.

Look, I would take him #1, but I just wouldn't trade for him for Wiggins/Parker plus someone like Cauley-Stein/Warren. 
I don't agree with the small frame. His core looks like it is slight but he has very broad shoulders which points to a good chance to gain muscle. More importantly he already is pretty big at 7'0 250 but I bet he will put on 10-15 more lbs of muscle as his career develops. I think his problem is a lack of positioning more than a lack of strength, having played the game only a short time he isn't always in the right spot or body position to maximize his strength, this is easily correctable at the next level.

At the very least he will come in and immediately block shots rebound and run the floor. In a short amount of time you will be able to kick the ball in the post and demand double teams, leaving shooters open. As shot creation and defense at the 5 have been our biggest weaknesses a player who can defend the rim and create open shots off post touches would be perfect, both now and for a long time to come.

Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2014, 11:56:45 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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I don't think those teams make those trades if they see him as a top C in this league.



I think the more likely scenario is they trade away the player they already have or go big. 


I like the idea of going big if you think one of them have the ability to slide over and defend PF spot. 

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2014, 12:09:58 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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If our own first rounder can net us Wiggins or Parker, then "No".  I wouldn't package that along with the mid to late teens first rounder to go up and get Embiid.

Now if it was like pick #5 with no shot at those two and a mid to late teens first rounder, I would certainly consider it and probably pull the trigger.

However, I don't think the other team is doing that trade.


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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2014, 12:37:14 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Embiid's question marks: limited time playing high level basketball, age (he's older than Parker/Wiggins he's a month younger than Nerlens Noel), and his back.
I think you hit the major 3, but he also isn't exactly dominating college players, is only playing 23 minutes a night, isn't a superb rebounder (for his size and being in college), doesn't have much in the way of post moves, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I'd take him with the 1st pick because I think you have to given what he might someday become, but he has a ton of question marks.  More than any player currently in college in this draft in my opinion. 

EDIT: He might very well turn into the next Hakeem or he might become the next Olowokandi.  You just don't know with someone with as little basketball experience as he has, especially if his back is really a problem.  Again I take him #1, but I don't think I'm trading Parker or Wiggins plus someone like Cauley-Stein or TJ Warren for him.

I don't want to come across as a jerk but you saying he doesn't have much of post moves, makes me think you haven't watched him play much?  He has tremendous footwork and I have seen him use both hands in the post.  Very advanced for a guy that has only been playing hoops for 3 years..

On the stats front - you have to remember that he is playing with 3 other first round picks on his team.  All guys that score.  He could rebound better but he will, I feel that he is the safest pick after parker but with much higher potential.
I've seen him play a fair amount.  He is quick, but he doesn't have the power or strength at this point.  He has a very small frame for his height and I'd have real concerns about his durability, especially down low, and especially given he already has back issues.  He isn't a great jump shooter so he can't play outside and will have to be in the post.  He can certainly grow into his frame some, but that is where age starts to come in because he is older and thus is more developed physically.

Look, I would take him #1, but I just wouldn't trade for him for Wiggins/Parker plus someone like Cauley-Stein/Warren. 
I don't agree with the small frame. His core looks like it is slight but he has very broad shoulders which points to a good chance to gain muscle. More importantly he already is pretty big at 7'0 250 but I bet he will put on 10-15 more lbs of muscle as his career develops. I think his problem is a lack of positioning more than a lack of strength, having played the game only a short time he isn't always in the right spot or body position to maximize his strength, this is easily correctable at the next level.

At the very least he will come in and immediately block shots rebound and run the floor. In a short amount of time you will be able to kick the ball in the post and demand double teams, leaving shooters open. As shot creation and defense at the 5 have been our biggest weaknesses a player who can defend the rim and create open shots off post touches would be perfect, both now and for a long time to come.

Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

I'm not too concerned about his defense in general.  He's mostly in the right place, just reacts slow or gets outmuscled.  Reaction will come over time.  Strength will too.  Also, his timing should be fine as a former volleyball player.  Swatting round balls mid-air is something he's familiar with.  Although you're right, he has a lot to work on.  If we got Embiid, I'd really want another center on a one-year deal so that Embiid doesn't have to get thrown into the fire, but can work on strength , technique, and conditioning for 15-20 minutes a game.

My number one concern is his back. 

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2014, 01:56:43 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Embiid's question marks: limited time playing high level basketball, age (he's older than Parker/Wiggins he's a month younger than Nerlens Noel), and his back.
I think you hit the major 3, but he also isn't exactly dominating college players, is only playing 23 minutes a night, isn't a superb rebounder (for his size and being in college), doesn't have much in the way of post moves, etc.


That (the bold part) is just wrong.

Embiid is pulling down 13.5 rebounds per 40, pace-adjusted.

That is dominant rebounding in college.

For comparison, Anthony Davis averaged 12.9.   Greg Oden, in one of the more dominant college 'big man' seasons in recent times, averaged 13.6.   Sullinger averaged 13.4 his freshman season, then 11.9 his sophomore season.

So, basically, that's the level of rebounding talent we are looking at with Embiid.

The only 'question mark' I can see with Embiid are whether his back issue is just a strain or something more chronic.  Hopefully Danny will know more than we do by draft day, should any such opportunity as this thread is discussing arise.

His age doesn't bother me.   

I'm also not worried about the 'only 24 minutes per game'.  He's on an extemely strong roster that doesn't need him to play a ton of minutes in each game.  Wiggins is the _only_ player on that roster playing over 30 mpg.  This is college - only 40 minutes in a game anyway.   Embiid has played between 25-33 minutes in half of his games, with most of those coming in the second half of the season.
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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2014, 02:31:23 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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A center like embiid doesnt come around too often. Alex len this past draft should of gone later but bc of his package,potential and that is a center prospect went higher

We are desperate for a center. Even with wiggins we wont be good until we get a legit center

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2014, 02:32:14 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.
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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2014, 02:47:52 PM »

Offline TwinTower14

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Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I just love him as a player, completely blown away that he has only been playing for 3 years and guys that are 7'0 shouldn't be able to run the floor like he does.  He is a special talent and will be an NBA All-Star within a few years...

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2014, 02:51:32 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I am not using blocks to judge his defense. They are only good in helping to judge rim protection - which is just one aspect of defense. I watched a bunch of his games, and he plays like a 19 year old on defense. He gets lost, and can get pushed around by stronger players. That's fine, he is just 19 years old. He has time to build his body and learn more fundamentals of team defense and man to man defense.

I Have to take back my comments about him only blocking 1.5 shots per game, clearly it has been a while since i looked at his stats! 2.6 per game in only 23 minutes is nice! He just doesn't look like an indimidating shot blocker/alterer in the course of a live game. I think he will get there. He has improved so much over the course of the season.

I would still take him number 1 even though I still think Wiggins and Parker edge him out as being more likely to be sure things. 19 year old bigs just come with risk, and i think Embiid is worth that risk.

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2014, 03:15:36 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Right now i don't think Embiid looks like a good shot blocker. I think he only blocks 1.5 a game, and rarely have i seen him alter shots. And he has been playing against mostly small front lines. He doesn't do too well against bigger college players. His man to man defense looks like a work in progress.

Elite shot blockers in the nba, like Olajuwon, were also elite shot blockers in college - even as freshmen.

Embiid's defense and block timing had been my biggest concerns. That gets trumped by the recurring back problems. I think he can improve for sure. He is new to the game, and does so many things well already. I would take him number one, even though he is a riskier pick compared to Wiggins and Parker.

Again, you have to look at normalized rates.   Embiid is averaging 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted.

For comparisons, Greg Oden averaged 4.7,  Anthony Davis averaged a ridiculous 5.8.

Of course, block rates are the kind of stat that fluctuates wildly (because the event count is so small) and are very subject to things like level of competition.  Kansas has played a brutal schedule this season so I expect that Embiid's  been challenged by some good talent.  I'd have to go back and check how tough the schedules were for Oden & Davis.

Blocks aren't really a stat I would put too much stock in as a measure of defense.  If he was only averaging 1 per 40pa, then I'd worry.  But at 4+, he's fine.

I am not using blocks to judge his defense. They are only good in helping to judge rim protection - which is just one aspect of defense. I watched a bunch of his games, and he plays like a 19 year old on defense. He gets lost, and can get pushed around by stronger players. That's fine, he is just 19 years old. He has time to build his body and learn more fundamentals of team defense and man to man defense.

I Have to take back my comments about him only blocking 1.5 shots per game, clearly it has been a while since i looked at his stats! 2.6 per game in only 23 minutes is nice! He just doesn't look like an indimidating shot blocker/alterer in the course of a live game. I think he will get there. He has improved so much over the course of the season.

I would still take him number 1 even though I still think Wiggins and Parker edge him out as being more likely to be sure things. 19 year old bigs just come with risk, and i think Embiid is worth that risk.

I disagree strongly that blocks are an indication of 'rim protection'.

The way you measure 'rim protection' is by how small a share of your opponents shot attempts are dunks, layups or tip-ins.   That is far more about keeping bodies physically away from the rim than it is about blocking shots.

A big man who can properly hedge the pick & roll in the high-paint will do far more to limit shots 'at rim' than a guy who just blocks a lot of shots.
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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #41 on: March 06, 2014, 03:24:18 PM »

Offline Birdman

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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #42 on: March 06, 2014, 03:32:33 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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No, I for one think he is overrated and will prove to be a huge disappointment  I think he's be a solid starter don't get me wrong but I don't think he's going to become anything like what people believe.  I think anybodywith a top4 pick who tradesupto take Embiid would end up feeling the same way the poisons did when they took Darko Milicicashigh asthey did.

Embiid has the IQ of a dump truck and I'd be very surprised if he becomes as good as people think.               

Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #43 on: March 06, 2014, 03:42:48 PM »

Offline Timdawgg

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its frustrating to think that ping pong balls are going to make or break this team

I completely agree, it sucks.  I live in Vegas and dream of getting an NBA team here but it will never happen because of the gaming in Nevada.  It's funny NBA doesn't like gambling yet that's how the NBA decides the fate of teams who draft all of their best players to the NBA. That kills me!
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Re: Would you trade both of our 2014 1st picks for Embiid
« Reply #44 on: March 06, 2014, 03:53:41 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I think Parker is. The Prize .... 2014 draft.   He is a kid and amazing . ....and might be tall as Durant one day......wow.

Would be hard to give up a chance  , no matter how slim .


That said I would be jumping up and down happy with Embiid......we need a center sooooooo bad


I'm not complaining when we pick fifth and take Randle.