Author Topic: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)  (Read 4121 times)

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Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« on: February 21, 2014, 06:41:55 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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With the season in the dumps and the much anticipated trade deadline passed without a sound. I am left to enjoy the growth of Sully and KO, while thinking to a future that they are likely not part of.

I think its safe to say that if DA has his way the celtics are going to parley their stockpile of assets into another Star for this roster. The likely target at this point is pretty obviously Kevin Love. Now I know I am making alot of assumptions but I do not think any are fare fetched.
Assumptions,

1. If Minn struggles the rest of the season and misses out on the playoffs. Love makes it privatly known that he eoes not plan to resign.

2. Celtics don't luck out in lottery and miss the top 4 land pick 5 in lottery and 18 from ATL/NETS.

3. Cs and Minn make a blockbuster draft day deal.
Minn gets Sully #5 and either #18 (or 2015 top 5 protected), the rights to swap 2017 with nets, Bass, Bogans and Anthony (all expiring). The celtics get Love and either Budinger or Brewer.

With all that said the Cs are left with a cap of roughly 43 mill without resigning AB or factoring in 18th pick.

With AB being injured again I see his open market value dropping from a few months ago. Cs sign him for 6mill a year and the pick for around 1.5. Leaving the Cs cap at 50.5mill, 7.5 mill short of the cap.

At this point the roster would be + #18 pick

PG Rondo, Pressey
SG Avery, Johnson
SF Green, Budinger, Wallace
PF Love, Olynyk
C  Faverani

At this point the make up of the team has come together. I titled this post flawed stars because both Rondo and Love have holes in major parts of there games. Love's is defence and Rondo's is outside shooting. This teams over all shooting ability will greatly mask Rondo's weakness but the lack of rim protection will make Love's weakness glaring.

The remaining 7.5 mill would have to be used to try to fill the hole at center. Some FA options would be Gasol,Gortat,Okafor (if healthy), Varejao,Dalembert, and Kaman. Gasol will likely command to much $$. Gortat may also be to much though his current deal is around 7.7mill. If healthy Okafor is a great fit and his health concerns should keep him relatively cheap. Maybe around dalemberts  current 3.7 mill. I will say Okafor passes physical and signs for 2yr 4.5 mill. Leaving the Cs with 3mill.

At this point the roster would be + #18 pick

PG Rondo, Pressey
SG Avery, Johnson
SF Green, Budinger, Wallace
PF Love, Olynyk
C  Okafor, Faverani

With the final 3mill + the 2.5 I believe is available with the Mid level exception ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap ). I would expect DA to look for an additional big and a 1/2 combo guard. At combo guard I would look at bringing Bayless back or maybe taking a shot at Jimmer. For the bigs I would look at Udoh, L Allen, Steimsma or E Brand in that order. That leaves 14 players on the roster. DA could also opt to bring Colton Iverson from overseas to fill the 15th spot.

2015 Roster + #18 pick

PG Rondo, Fredette,Pressey
SG Avery, Johnson
SF Green, Budinger, Wallace
PF Love, Olynyk, L Allen
C  Okafor, Faverani, Iverson

Like I said alot of assumptions but I think they are all conceivable. This teams weakness would still be the center position. The team would still have the rights to multiple 1st and could likely turn them into an upgrade at the 5 if needed.

I have likely made some errors in my knowledge of the CBA but who really has time to learn all that....

The final question can this team win a championship? How do they stack up with Miami (if still together) and the Pacers in the East? 

   

 
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2014, 07:11:28 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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couple of notes,

1. I based my trade package for Love on the package the Nets gave up for Deron Williams. The 5th pick should be smart or Randle so there is major value there coupled with Sully's Love-lite potential and future picks I think this is as good as any deal they can expect.


2. If Cs have #18 pick DA would go BPA, Hariston, Payne and Stauskas would all be available based on draftexpress.com and all could contribute as rookies. Another option would be draft and stash overseas Nurkic or Capela.


3. Avery situation could be a pivot point in the setup he could very easily be sign and traded with picks to upgrade the center or bring in a more traditional SG like afflalo.

 
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2014, 07:46:00 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Can that team win a championship?  In my opinion, no.  You've got borderline starters at the 2, the 3, and the 5. 

Rondo is a good distributor and defender and Love is a great scorer and rebounder, but they can't adequately cover up the weaknesses of the rest of that group.
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2014, 08:23:59 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Can that team win a championship?  In my opinion, no.  You've got borderline starters at the 2, the 3, and the 5. 

Rondo is a good distributor and defender and Love is a great scorer and rebounder, but they can't adequately cover up the weaknesses of the rest of that group.

He is inconsistent but Green is a legit starter, AB has grown into a legit starter his issue in my opinion will always be lack of size for position and injuries. This may ultimately lead to him being packaged in a S&T this summer.
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2014, 08:51:45 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Can that team win a championship?  In my opinion, no.  You've got borderline starters at the 2, the 3, and the 5. 

Rondo is a good distributor and defender and Love is a great scorer and rebounder, but they can't adequately cover up the weaknesses of the rest of that group.

  Throw in someone like Asik and you're a solid team. Upgrade one of the wings and you're cooking with gas. That team, as is, isn't great, but you've got time to add to it.


Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2014, 08:59:14 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I don't think I would give up Sullinger, #5, and other assets for Love without knowing full well I could bring in Asik (or someone similar) to play the center and that I could upgrade either wing spot. 
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2014, 08:59:31 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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thanks for the good thread. but my question is....

PF Love, Olynyk
C  Faverani

is THAT the starting frontline and rotation for the celtics? good luck in the playoffs and expect an early exit.

where is the defense? faverani is not a great defender from what i see. we all know about olly being defensively-challenged, and love's reputation is built on scoring and rebounds, not defense.

other front lines would have field day against the celtics. and in the playoffs, when defense rules, the celtics would face an early exit.

nope, dont like this front line at all and i hope that ainge will do better than this.
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2014, 09:04:59 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Can that team win a championship?  In my opinion, no. 

You've got borderline starters at the 2, the 3, and the 5. 

Rondo is a good distributor and defender and Love is a great scorer and rebounder, but they can't adequately cover up the weaknesses of the rest of that group.

He is inconsistent but Green is a legit starter, AB has grown into a legit starter his issue in my opinion will always be lack of size for position and injuries. This may ultimately lead to him being packaged in a S&T this summer.
Green is a low-end starter but has shown he's more likely 6th man material.
AB's not starting material.  Granted that's your opinion but my opinion is that he's not.  His D isn't what it used to be, his ballhandling is weak and his shot, while improved, is not what you need from a starting SG.  He's a 3rd guard in a rotation where you have a starting SG that can play point.

I disagree with your basic premise that Danny's primary trade target is Love.  You're proposing to give up a pretty hefty package, better than the one for KG IMO, for a player that's not nearly on KG's level.  I wouldn't mind having Love on the team but not while sacrifing a bunch of assets.  His D is not nearly good enough to justify that kind of payment.

I'd rather let the expiring deals roll off the the next 2 years and take a shot at signing him as a FA in 2015.  pair him with Rondo and hopefully 2 good picks in 2014 and 2015 and see what we have. 

Hump, Bass, Bogans, Bayless are all gone.

PG: Rondo, Pressey
SG: Exum (wishful thinking this year), Johnson  (I think AB is gone in a S&T for an expiring deal and pick in order to keep financial flexibility for 2015)
SF: Green, Wallace (both expiring deals in 2016 that would movable assets--theoretically)
PF: Love (as a FA signing.), Sully, KO
C: 2015 First round Pick (C's will still be bad and have a high pick in a draft loaded with big men), Fav

The later first round picks Danny gets this year and next will be used on BPAs at that time.  Looking at who's left on the C's roster for the 2015 cap, only Rondo, Green and Wallace will be making serious money.  Everyone else is on rookie deals or playing out qualifying offers.  If a little bit more cap room is needed to sign a FA like Love, CJ will probably be let go as well.

I think this is more feasible and leaves the C's in much better position to rise quickly in the East.  In this set up there's enough offense to not rely heavily on Green to score and enough D (assuming big man in 2015 is more likely a solid defender and just a competent scorer).  that lineup could contend in the East for 4-5 years or more not to mention the restocking of the talent pool with those 5 first rounders from 2016-2018 (3 of them Nets picks-->I highly anticipate those picks to be in the lottery whereas the C's picks won't be).

Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2014, 12:14:28 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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thanks for the good thread. but my question is....

PF Love, Olynyk
C  Faverani

is THAT the starting frontline and rotation for the celtics? good luck in the playoffs and expect an early exit.

where is the defense? faverani is not a great defender from what i see. we all know about olly being defensively-challenged, and love's reputation is built on scoring and rebounds, not defense.

other front lines would have field day against the celtics. and in the playoffs, when defense rules, the celtics would face an early exit.

nope, dont like this front line at all and i hope that ainge will do better than this.

I broke out the roster at 3 points the point your are referencing with Love, KO and Fav was just the first step post love trade. Not a finished product.
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2014, 12:30:28 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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Can that team win a championship?  In my opinion, no. 

You've got borderline starters at the 2, the 3, and the 5. 

Rondo is a good distributor and defender and Love is a great scorer and rebounder, but they can't adequately cover up the weaknesses of the rest of that group.

He is inconsistent but Green is a legit starter, AB has grown into a legit starter his issue in my opinion will always be lack of size for position and injuries. This may ultimately lead to him being packaged in a S&T this summer.
Green is a low-end starter but has shown he's more likely 6th man material.
AB's not starting material.  Granted that's your opinion but my opinion is that he's not.  His D isn't what it used to be, his ballhandling is weak and his shot, while improved, is not what you need from a starting SG.  He's a 3rd guard in a rotation where you have a starting SG that can play point.

I disagree with your basic premise that Danny's primary trade target is Love.  You're proposing to give up a pretty hefty package, better than the one for KG IMO, for a player that's not nearly on KG's level.  I wouldn't mind having Love on the team but not while sacrifing a bunch of assets.  His D is not nearly good enough to justify that kind of payment.

I'd rather let the expiring deals roll off the the next 2 years and take a shot at signing him as a FA in 2015.  pair him with Rondo and hopefully 2 good picks in 2014 and 2015 and see what we have. 

Hump, Bass, Bogans, Bayless are all gone.

PG: Rondo, Pressey
SG: Exum (wishful thinking this year), Johnson  (I think AB is gone in a S&T for an expiring deal and pick in order to keep financial flexibility for 2015)
SF: Green, Wallace (both expiring deals in 2016 that would movable assets--theoretically)
PF: Love (as a FA signing.), Sully, KO
C: 2015 First round Pick (C's will still be bad and have a high pick in a draft loaded with big men), Fav

The later first round picks Danny gets this year and next will be used on BPAs at that time.  Looking at who's left on the C's roster for the 2015 cap, only Rondo, Green and Wallace will be making serious money.  Everyone else is on rookie deals or playing out qualifying offers.  If a little bit more cap room is needed to sign a FA like Love, CJ will probably be let go as well.

I think this is more feasible and leaves the C's in much better position to rise quickly in the East.  In this set up there's enough offense to not rely heavily on Green to score and enough D (assuming big man in 2015 is more likely a solid defender and just a competent scorer).  that lineup could contend in the East for 4-5 years or more not to mention the restocking of the talent pool with those 5 first rounders from 2016-2018 (3 of them Nets picks-->I highly anticipate those picks to be in the lottery whereas the C's picks won't be).

I understand what your saying but I have a few issues.

Green is a starter I truck DA as a talent evaluator and he paid him starter money.

AB has been starting and was good enough to take Ray job from him. I agree he isn't elite but he is a passable starter.

You wishfully project that the Cs land Exum in the draft. If this happens the plan would likely change. One of my major assumptions is that the celtics fail to get a top 4 pick.

Waiting for Love to be a FA is great in principle but after two years of tanking I don't see him coming to Boston (never been a FA hotspot). By getting him before he hits FA the Cs gain some leverage in him resigning. They can give more $$$$. Waiting it out to 2015 also brings Rondo's free agency into play. It becomes a real all or nothing off season.
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Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2014, 12:39:32 PM »

Offline ManUp

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Love
Pekovic

Green
Bass
Bogans
Sullinger
Olynyk
Celtics 2014 draft choice
Celtics 2015 pick
Brooklyn 2014 1st


After such a deal we'd be set for starters everywhere except at small forward. Love and Pekovic would dominate east front-lines (except the Pacers) and Rondo and Bradley would terrorize back courts. That's a top 3 team in the east. However, to become a front runner in contention we would still need a capable scoring wing at SF (Hayward?). Does Utah say no to Wallace and Brooklyn's 2016 1st?

So then we could have

Rondo
Bradley
Hayward
Love
Pekovic

Fill out the rest of the bench with MLE/Vet min guys.

See this is why i hate trade hypotheticals I get carried away, lol.

Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2014, 12:40:57 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Can that team win a championship?  In my opinion, no.  You've got borderline starters at the 2, the 3, and the 5. 

Rondo is a good distributor and defender and Love is a great scorer and rebounder, but they can't adequately cover up the weaknesses of the rest of that group.

  Throw in someone like Asik and you're a solid team. Upgrade one of the wings and you're cooking with gas. That team, as is, isn't great, but you've got time to add to it.

Agreed on both counts. Bradley and Green as a pair are far too anemic offensively for us to be a real contender IMO. And, we need a defensive-minded C to pair with Love.

We'd still have a bunch of picks...if we could move them for a solid defensive C and an All-Star SF or SG, we'd be in business.  I'd prefer to move Green.

I think that's feasible. The good thing is that if Danny moves quickly, the current going rate for even very good wing players is pretty low. Look at the Deng and Iggy deals.

Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2014, 12:48:10 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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I don't think after trading the package for Love suggested we'd be a contender next season. With that said, I'd still make that trade and just hope for something fortunate to happen in the future. Possibilities for unexpected fortune would be something like

1 Our other pick blossoms into an above average starter.

2 Some combination of our assets bringing another key piece

FWIW, I actually think a Rondo/Bradley/Green starting 1-2-3 could work in the right circumstances. For one thing, that's a really good trio defensively, better than most on the perimeter.




Re: Building a Contender around flawed Stars (hypothetical)
« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2014, 12:54:32 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Love needs a defensive big next to him. It would be fun to see how he does paired with a Howard, gasol, hibbert, Duncan, Noah, Drummond, cousins, asik, chandler, Embiid, favors, jordan, bogut, sanders, Noel, etc.