Would you do this trade with Cleveland?

[freshinthehouse]

Drop Sullinger off the deal and I'd definitely be interested.  They could keep the Miami pick.

[BballTim]

  If you sent them Bradley, Green and Sully and they already had Irving, Deng and Varajao then they'd be good enough that the draft pick wouldn't be worth it.

They still have Mike Brown coaching, so maybe it would be. 

  I'd still expect them to under-perform, just be somewhat better than they are now.

[Depalma2002]

When you break it down...

Bradley for 2015 Miami #1 is fair enough, if we intend to let him walk.

Green for 2015 Grizzlies #1, plus cap relief, is decent value

Sully for 2014 Cleveland #1...  That's the sticking point, I think.  If Cleveland makes the playoffs, this pick is 15th or lower, and that's just not great value.

  Health aside (I know, that's a big aside) if Cleveland ended up with a pick outside the top 10 the odds of that pick performing as well as Sully is at the same point in his career are pretty poor. I'd also say Bradley's worth more than an end of the round draft pick.

The question is, is Miami's pick really going to be at the end of the first round.  If Bosh and James both leave, Miami might not even make the playoffs (the pick is top 10 protected for a couple of years and then unproteced in 2017).  If one of them leaves then it is probably a low 20's type pick.  If Boston isn't going to re-sign Bradley, I think that value is probably about right.

As for Sullinger and the late lottery or early playoffs pick  of Cleveland, I guess it depends what Boston does with it.  Maybe they package the Cleveland and Brooklyn pick and move up into the late top 10, or package it with Boston's own pick to move up a spot or two to get the guy they really want.  Or maybe a Paul George type player is available.  Draftexpress has Dario Saric at 11.  He very well might be the best player in this draft.  I agree there is a lot of uncertainty, but by the middle of his second year, I could certainly see a late lottery or early playoff pick this year turning into a very inconsistent 13/8 type player (which is what Sullinger is)

  Sullinger isn't that inconsistent for a 2nd year player. Also, your expectations for miod 1st rounders is awfully unrealistic. In the last 15 years there have been a total of 28 players who averaged at least 12/7 in their 2nd year, and the bulk of them were high draft picks. Only 6 players in the last 15 years who played 1000+ minutes in their 2nd years averaged as many points and rebounds per36 as Sully has this year, and Sully's the only one drafted outside the top 10.

  Before his hand injury Sully was averaging 20/10 per 36. The only players among those 6 players who averaged that were Griffin, Davis and  Cousins. If Sully was on another team you'd be saying his GM would immediately hang up the phone if we offered a late lottery (or worse) pick for him.

+1

The only way we should trade Sully is in as part of the package for a proven superstar.

[Moranis]

When you break it down...

Bradley for 2015 Miami #1 is fair enough, if we intend to let him walk.

Green for 2015 Grizzlies #1, plus cap relief, is decent value

Sully for 2014 Cleveland #1...  That's the sticking point, I think.  If Cleveland makes the playoffs, this pick is 15th or lower, and that's just not great value.

  Health aside (I know, that's a big aside) if Cleveland ended up with a pick outside the top 10 the odds of that pick performing as well as Sully is at the same point in his career are pretty poor. I'd also say Bradley's worth more than an end of the round draft pick.

The question is, is Miami's pick really going to be at the end of the first round.  If Bosh and James both leave, Miami might not even make the playoffs (the pick is top 10 protected for a couple of years and then unproteced in 2017).  If one of them leaves then it is probably a low 20's type pick.  If Boston isn't going to re-sign Bradley, I think that value is probably about right.

As for Sullinger and the late lottery or early playoffs pick  of Cleveland, I guess it depends what Boston does with it.  Maybe they package the Cleveland and Brooklyn pick and move up into the late top 10, or package it with Boston's own pick to move up a spot or two to get the guy they really want.  Or maybe a Paul George type player is available.  Draftexpress has Dario Saric at 11.  He very well might be the best player in this draft.  I agree there is a lot of uncertainty, but by the middle of his second year, I could certainly see a late lottery or early playoff pick this year turning into a very inconsistent 13/8 type player (which is what Sullinger is)

  Sullinger isn't that inconsistent for a 2nd year player. Also, your expectations for miod 1st rounders is awfully unrealistic. In the last 15 years there have been a total of 28 players who averaged at least 12/7 in their 2nd year, and the bulk of them were high draft picks. Only 6 players in the last 15 years who played 1000+ minutes in their 2nd years averaged as many points and rebounds per36 as Sully has this year, and Sully's the only one drafted outside the top 10.

  Before his hand injury Sully was averaging 20/10 per 36. The only players among those 6 players who averaged that were Griffin, Davis and  Cousins. If Sully was on another team you'd be saying his GM would immediately hang up the phone if we offered a late lottery (or worse) pick for him.

well SF and SG aren't going to average a second stat of 7 at all (except all timers) and PG's need to be in the right situation (and then rarely do they develop quick enough in the 2nd year).  So in other words you really only have PF's and C's to look at.

And if you look at Sullinger's draft there are more than 1 guy in his general range taken outside of the lottery (none the less in it).

John Henson 12/8
Terrence Jones 12/7.5 (and a lot higher since starting)
Miles Plumlee 9.5/8.5 (better rebounder, not as many shots, but much more efficient)

It seems Sullinger isn't all that unique.

[BballTim]

When you break it down...

Bradley for 2015 Miami #1 is fair enough, if we intend to let him walk.

Green for 2015 Grizzlies #1, plus cap relief, is decent value

Sully for 2014 Cleveland #1...  That's the sticking point, I think.  If Cleveland makes the playoffs, this pick is 15th or lower, and that's just not great value.

  Health aside (I know, that's a big aside) if Cleveland ended up with a pick outside the top 10 the odds of that pick performing as well as Sully is at the same point in his career are pretty poor. I'd also say Bradley's worth more than an end of the round draft pick.

The question is, is Miami's pick really going to be at the end of the first round.  If Bosh and James both leave, Miami might not even make the playoffs (the pick is top 10 protected for a couple of years and then unproteced in 2017).  If one of them leaves then it is probably a low 20's type pick.  If Boston isn't going to re-sign Bradley, I think that value is probably about right.

As for Sullinger and the late lottery or early playoffs pick  of Cleveland, I guess it depends what Boston does with it.  Maybe they package the Cleveland and Brooklyn pick and move up into the late top 10, or package it with Boston's own pick to move up a spot or two to get the guy they really want.  Or maybe a Paul George type player is available.  Draftexpress has Dario Saric at 11.  He very well might be the best player in this draft.  I agree there is a lot of uncertainty, but by the middle of his second year, I could certainly see a late lottery or early playoff pick this year turning into a very inconsistent 13/8 type player (which is what Sullinger is)

  Sullinger isn't that inconsistent for a 2nd year player. Also, your expectations for miod 1st rounders is awfully unrealistic. In the last 15 years there have been a total of 28 players who averaged at least 12/7 in their 2nd year, and the bulk of them were high draft picks. Only 6 players in the last 15 years who played 1000+ minutes in their 2nd years averaged as many points and rebounds per36 as Sully has this year, and Sully's the only one drafted outside the top 10.

  Before his hand injury Sully was averaging 20/10 per 36. The only players among those 6 players who averaged that were Griffin, Davis and  Cousins. If Sully was on another team you'd be saying his GM would immediately hang up the phone if we offered a late lottery (or worse) pick for him.

well SF and SG aren't going to average a second stat of 7 at all (except all timers) and PG's need to be in the right situation (and then rarely do they develop quick enough in the 2nd year).  So in other words you really only have PF's and C's to look at.

And if you look at Sullinger's draft there are more than 1 guy in his general range taken outside of the lottery (none the less in it).

John Henson 12/8
Terrence Jones 12/7.5 (and a lot higher since starting)
Miles Plumlee 9.5/8.5 (better rebounder, not as many shots, but much more efficient)

It seems Sullinger isn't all that unique.

  Yes, it's mainly PFs and Cs but the fact that it doesn't happen very often for those players is significant. But, even though Henson and Jones don't seem to be quite the scorers Sully is, are you fairly confident we could pick up either of them if we offered the 15th or so pick in the draft?

[Moranis]

When you break it down...

Bradley for 2015 Miami #1 is fair enough, if we intend to let him walk.

Green for 2015 Grizzlies #1, plus cap relief, is decent value

Sully for 2014 Cleveland #1...  That's the sticking point, I think.  If Cleveland makes the playoffs, this pick is 15th or lower, and that's just not great value.

  Health aside (I know, that's a big aside) if Cleveland ended up with a pick outside the top 10 the odds of that pick performing as well as Sully is at the same point in his career are pretty poor. I'd also say Bradley's worth more than an end of the round draft pick.

The question is, is Miami's pick really going to be at the end of the first round.  If Bosh and James both leave, Miami might not even make the playoffs (the pick is top 10 protected for a couple of years and then unproteced in 2017).  If one of them leaves then it is probably a low 20's type pick.  If Boston isn't going to re-sign Bradley, I think that value is probably about right.

As for Sullinger and the late lottery or early playoffs pick  of Cleveland, I guess it depends what Boston does with it.  Maybe they package the Cleveland and Brooklyn pick and move up into the late top 10, or package it with Boston's own pick to move up a spot or two to get the guy they really want.  Or maybe a Paul George type player is available.  Draftexpress has Dario Saric at 11.  He very well might be the best player in this draft.  I agree there is a lot of uncertainty, but by the middle of his second year, I could certainly see a late lottery or early playoff pick this year turning into a very inconsistent 13/8 type player (which is what Sullinger is)

  Sullinger isn't that inconsistent for a 2nd year player. Also, your expectations for miod 1st rounders is awfully unrealistic. In the last 15 years there have been a total of 28 players who averaged at least 12/7 in their 2nd year, and the bulk of them were high draft picks. Only 6 players in the last 15 years who played 1000+ minutes in their 2nd years averaged as many points and rebounds per36 as Sully has this year, and Sully's the only one drafted outside the top 10.

  Before his hand injury Sully was averaging 20/10 per 36. The only players among those 6 players who averaged that were Griffin, Davis and  Cousins. If Sully was on another team you'd be saying his GM would immediately hang up the phone if we offered a late lottery (or worse) pick for him.

well SF and SG aren't going to average a second stat of 7 at all (except all timers) and PG's need to be in the right situation (and then rarely do they develop quick enough in the 2nd year).  So in other words you really only have PF's and C's to look at.

And if you look at Sullinger's draft there are more than 1 guy in his general range taken outside of the lottery (none the less in it).

John Henson 12/8
Terrence Jones 12/7.5 (and a lot higher since starting)
Miles Plumlee 9.5/8.5 (better rebounder, not as many shots, but much more efficient)

It seems Sullinger isn't all that unique.

  Yes, it's mainly PFs and Cs but the fact that it doesn't happen very often for those players is significant. But, even though Henson and Jones don't seem to be quite the scorers Sully is, are you fairly confident we could pick up either of them if we offered the 15th or so pick in the draft?

I have no idea, but it isn't the 15th pick we would be offering, it is an unprotected 1st round pick for a bad team (which I think Houston and Milwaukee very well might sign up for).  That pick might end up the 1st pick in the draft or maybe around 20, just no idea.  And there are also other picks and players involved in the trade. 

I think you overestimating a great deal Sullinger's value.  He isn't a 20/10 player or a picture of health.  He is a second year player, but he is not a monster.

[BballTim]

When you break it down...

Bradley for 2015 Miami #1 is fair enough, if we intend to let him walk.

Green for 2015 Grizzlies #1, plus cap relief, is decent value

Sully for 2014 Cleveland #1...  That's the sticking point, I think.  If Cleveland makes the playoffs, this pick is 15th or lower, and that's just not great value.

  Health aside (I know, that's a big aside) if Cleveland ended up with a pick outside the top 10 the odds of that pick performing as well as Sully is at the same point in his career are pretty poor. I'd also say Bradley's worth more than an end of the round draft pick.

The question is, is Miami's pick really going to be at the end of the first round.  If Bosh and James both leave, Miami might not even make the playoffs (the pick is top 10 protected for a couple of years and then unproteced in 2017).  If one of them leaves then it is probably a low 20's type pick.  If Boston isn't going to re-sign Bradley, I think that value is probably about right.

As for Sullinger and the late lottery or early playoffs pick  of Cleveland, I guess it depends what Boston does with it.  Maybe they package the Cleveland and Brooklyn pick and move up into the late top 10, or package it with Boston's own pick to move up a spot or two to get the guy they really want.  Or maybe a Paul George type player is available.  Draftexpress has Dario Saric at 11.  He very well might be the best player in this draft.  I agree there is a lot of uncertainty, but by the middle of his second year, I could certainly see a late lottery or early playoff pick this year turning into a very inconsistent 13/8 type player (which is what Sullinger is)

  Sullinger isn't that inconsistent for a 2nd year player. Also, your expectations for miod 1st rounders is awfully unrealistic. In the last 15 years there have been a total of 28 players who averaged at least 12/7 in their 2nd year, and the bulk of them were high draft picks. Only 6 players in the last 15 years who played 1000+ minutes in their 2nd years averaged as many points and rebounds per36 as Sully has this year, and Sully's the only one drafted outside the top 10.

  Before his hand injury Sully was averaging 20/10 per 36. The only players among those 6 players who averaged that were Griffin, Davis and  Cousins. If Sully was on another team you'd be saying his GM would immediately hang up the phone if we offered a late lottery (or worse) pick for him.

well SF and SG aren't going to average a second stat of 7 at all (except all timers) and PG's need to be in the right situation (and then rarely do they develop quick enough in the 2nd year).  So in other words you really only have PF's and C's to look at.

And if you look at Sullinger's draft there are more than 1 guy in his general range taken outside of the lottery (none the less in it).

John Henson 12/8
Terrence Jones 12/7.5 (and a lot higher since starting)
Miles Plumlee 9.5/8.5 (better rebounder, not as many shots, but much more efficient)

It seems Sullinger isn't all that unique.

  Yes, it's mainly PFs and Cs but the fact that it doesn't happen very often for those players is significant. But, even though Henson and Jones don't seem to be quite the scorers Sully is, are you fairly confident we could pick up either of them if we offered the 15th or so pick in the draft?

I have no idea, but it isn't the 15th pick we would be offering, it is an unprotected 1st round pick for a bad team (which I think Houston and Milwaukee very well might sign up for).  That pick might end up the 1st pick in the draft or maybe around 20, just no idea.  And there are also other picks and players involved in the trade. 

I think you overestimating a great deal Sullinger's value.  He isn't a 20/10 player or a picture of health.  He is a second year player, but he is not a monster.

   You were talking about a late lottery or worse pick. Cleveland's won 16 games and there's 13 teams with 20 or fewer wins. They just added Deng and you'd be giving them Green, Bradley and Sully. Try convincing the Rockets that there's a reasonable chance that team's pick ends up #1 in the draft.

  Sully isn't a 20/10 guy but he was averaging that per36 before his injury. It's not out of the question he'll be relatively close to that, he's only 21 or so. He's got the back thing but you'd be crazy to give him up for a late lottery pick.

[LilRip]

When you break it down...

Bradley for 2015 Miami #1 is fair enough, if we intend to let him walk.

Green for 2015 Grizzlies #1, plus cap relief, is decent value

Sully for 2014 Cleveland #1...  That's the sticking point, I think.  If Cleveland makes the playoffs, this pick is 15th or lower, and that's just not great value.

  Health aside (I know, that's a big aside) if Cleveland ended up with a pick outside the top 10 the odds of that pick performing as well as Sully is at the same point in his career are pretty poor. I'd also say Bradley's worth more than an end of the round draft pick.

The question is, is Miami's pick really going to be at the end of the first round.  If Bosh and James both leave, Miami might not even make the playoffs (the pick is top 10 protected for a couple of years and then unproteced in 2017).  If one of them leaves then it is probably a low 20's type pick.  If Boston isn't going to re-sign Bradley, I think that value is probably about right.

As for Sullinger and the late lottery or early playoffs pick  of Cleveland, I guess it depends what Boston does with it.  Maybe they package the Cleveland and Brooklyn pick and move up into the late top 10, or package it with Boston's own pick to move up a spot or two to get the guy they really want.  Or maybe a Paul George type player is available.  Draftexpress has Dario Saric at 11.  He very well might be the best player in this draft.  I agree there is a lot of uncertainty, but by the middle of his second year, I could certainly see a late lottery or early playoff pick this year turning into a very inconsistent 13/8 type player (which is what Sullinger is)

  Sullinger isn't that inconsistent for a 2nd year player. Also, your expectations for miod 1st rounders is awfully unrealistic. In the last 15 years there have been a total of 28 players who averaged at least 12/7 in their 2nd year, and the bulk of them were high draft picks. Only 6 players in the last 15 years who played 1000+ minutes in their 2nd years averaged as many points and rebounds per36 as Sully has this year, and Sully's the only one drafted outside the top 10.

  Before his hand injury Sully was averaging 20/10 per 36. The only players among those 6 players who averaged that were Griffin, Davis and  Cousins. If Sully was on another team you'd be saying his GM would immediately hang up the phone if we offered a late lottery (or worse) pick for him.

well SF and SG aren't going to average a second stat of 7 at all (except all timers) and PG's need to be in the right situation (and then rarely do they develop quick enough in the 2nd year).  So in other words you really only have PF's and C's to look at.

And if you look at Sullinger's draft there are more than 1 guy in his general range taken outside of the lottery (none the less in it).

John Henson 12/8
Terrence Jones 12/7.5 (and a lot higher since starting)
Miles Plumlee 9.5/8.5 (better rebounder, not as many shots, but much more efficient)

It seems Sullinger isn't all that unique.

I would trade our nets pick (I assume they'll make the playoffs and end up in the 15-20 range) for John Henson or Terrence jones. Absolute no brainer. That's a steal.