Author Topic: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today  (Read 24081 times)

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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #300 on: March 05, 2014, 11:52:41 PM »

Offline RJ87

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Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season

7-11 is a "decent" shooting game? I guess 11-11 would've been more impressive....

TJ Warren is having a nice Linsanity-like run but if a team does draft him before the 20's, they're reaching.

Careful there triboy, your bias is showing.

Naw I think your the bias one. And like many over hyping this kid. A super prospect should be able to carry his team over an unseeded team. At least a few times

List some games this season where he literally carried his team onto a win.

This is why Danny is not excited. At least wiggins has had a few clutch games vs duke as one of them and embiids excuse is that he is a center and is still new to the game. Whats parkers excuse?

A couple of weeks ago against Syracuse immediately comes to mind, I don't have his exact stat line but he shook off a rough start and became a beast down the stretch of that game.

Tonight,  Coach K was having health issues in the second half - I can forgive the team for being a bit distracted.
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #301 on: March 06, 2014, 02:26:50 AM »

Offline chambers

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Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season

7-11 is a "decent" shooting game? I guess 11-11 would've been more impressive....

TJ Warren is having a nice Linsanity-like run but if a team does draft him before the 20's, they're reaching.

Careful there triboy, your bias is showing.

Naw I think your the bias one. And like many over hyping this kid. A super prospect should be able to carry his team over an unseeded team. At least a few times

List some games this season where he literally carried his team onto a win.

This is why Danny is not excited. At least wiggins has had a few clutch games vs duke as one of them and embiids excuse is that he is a center and is still new to the game. Whats parkers excuse?

College basketball is pretty tough for players that get their team going by breaking defenders down off the dribble because of the zone.
Parker is a far superior 1v1 player and his game translates to 'superstar' much more than TJ Warren.
He's a better shooter, has better footwork, and is two years younger.
He's carried that Duke team multiple times this season as a freshman. Wiggins is on a team of 'college stars' so he should be destroying his opponents more often than not.
TJ Warren is great, if I had a knock on him it's his shooting form and his slow release might hurt him being defended by NBA length. Could be like Harrison Barnes, with slightly less athleticism but better shooting touch and BBall IQ.

Just to add re. Parker...I don't know where you got the 'Danny's not interested' in Parker thing from but he's been interested in Parker since he was 14 years old, sitting next to his mom in multiple games.
Hard to see him taking anyone over Parker other than Embid.
We can use our Clippers pick on someone like Warren if they're the best player available at the late teens pick from the Nets.
Personally Id like Danny to trade the Brooklyn pick with a team around the 20-24 spot who'll give us a 2nd rounder so we can roll the dice on Chris Walker.
Danny Ainge tried to get CP3 & David West to add to KG, Pierce and Ray Allen. Just Imagine if the stars had aligned...

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #302 on: March 06, 2014, 03:27:28 PM »

Offline cman88

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people keep acting like the Bucks/76ers are a sure fire chance to get the #1 pick...hasnt it been years since the team with the worst record won the draft lottery?

we missed out on Duncan/durant(I cant bring myself to say oden)...maybe 3rd times the charm?

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #303 on: March 06, 2014, 03:40:01 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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people keep acting like the Bucks/76ers are a sure fire chance to get the #1 pick...hasnt it been years since the team with the worst record won the draft lottery?

we missed out on Duncan/durant(I cant bring myself to say oden)...maybe 3rd times the charm?
In the Duncan draft he was the only prize, in the Oden/Durant year there were two players considered elite in this year's version there are 3 players who are considered elite. So at least this year there is a greater chance to end up with one of the elite guys..
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #304 on: March 06, 2014, 03:55:25 PM »

Offline PaulPierce34G

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Just a question...Say we end up with the 4th worst record, do we have a greater chance of moving up in the draft or moving down and receiving a worse pick?  Also, under the same scenario (4th worst record), what is the worst possible lotto pick we could end up with, should we slide down?

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #305 on: March 06, 2014, 04:03:33 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Just a question...Say we end up with the 4th worst record, do we have a greater chance of moving up in the draft or moving down and receiving a worse pick?  Also, under the same scenario (4th worst record), what is the worst possible lotto pick we could end up with, should we slide down?
There is a greater chance we slide down.

37.8% chance to move up into one of the top 3
52.3% chance to move down 1 to 3 slots
 9.9% chance to stay in the 4th slot

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #306 on: March 06, 2014, 04:52:05 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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The worst that a team with the 4th-worst record can do is the 7th pick.  It breaks down like this:

11.9% - 1st
12.6% - 2nd
13.3% - 3rd
9.9% - 4th
35.1% - 5th
16.0% 6th
1.2% 7th
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #307 on: March 06, 2014, 05:05:05 PM »

Online Moranis

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The worst that a team with the 4th-worst record can do is the 7th pick.  It breaks down like this:

11.9% - 1st
12.6% - 2nd
13.3% - 3rd
9.9% - 4th
35.1% - 5th
16.0% 6th
1.2% 7th
I do think it is funny that the lowest percentage (aside from 7th) is 4th, which is in fact the slot by position.  Cracks me up a bit.  And I understand the math, it is just funny to me.
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #308 on: March 06, 2014, 05:07:52 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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The worst that a team with the 4th-worst record can do is the 7th pick.  It breaks down like this:

11.9% - 1st
12.6% - 2nd
13.3% - 3rd
9.9% - 4th
35.1% - 5th
16.0% 6th
1.2% 7th
I do think it is funny that the lowest percentage (aside from 7th) is 4th, which is in fact the slot by position.  Cracks me up a bit.  And I understand the math, it is just funny to me.

Well, the point of the lottery is to discourage tanking by making losses less valuable when compared to there not being a lottery.
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #309 on: March 07, 2014, 09:52:28 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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Welp tough win tonight. I expected to win one agaibst bkl or detroit. Lets go pistons!!!!

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #310 on: March 27, 2014, 08:45:10 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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as of this morning, C's in 5th slot. 

6 wins behind Cleveland in the 9th slot so that seems assuredly out of reach.

3 wins behind Detroit in the 8th spot--probably out of reach as well at this point.

2 wins behind Sac (7th) and 1 win behind LA (6th).  Tied with Utah in wins but one loss behind for 4th. still a chance we could end up with the 7th spot with Sac and LA playing in the west but I think we're pretty firmly somewhere in the 4th to 7th spot at this point.  With Utah also in the West, I don't see them climbing past us in the win column.

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #311 on: March 27, 2014, 09:03:22 AM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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as of this morning, C's in 5th slot. 

6 wins behind Cleveland in the 9th slot so that seems assuredly out of reach.

3 wins behind Detroit in the 8th spot--probably out of reach as well at this point.

2 wins behind Sac (7th) and 1 win behind LA (6th).  Tied with Utah in wins but one loss behind for 4th. still a chance we could end up with the 7th spot with Sac and LA playing in the west but I think we're pretty firmly somewhere in the 4th to 7th spot at this point.  With Utah also in the West, I don't see them climbing past us in the win column.

Utah and LA have a game together at the very end of the season, could be an interesting tank game with big draft  implications.

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #312 on: March 27, 2014, 09:38:55 AM »

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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #313 on: March 27, 2014, 09:54:58 AM »

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Come on Brad...start Johnson and Babb.

We can do this!  ;D

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #314 on: March 27, 2014, 10:02:44 AM »

Online saltlover

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http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-pm-another-2014-nba-mock-draft/

This would be awesome...

 ;D

It would be.  Loses a bit of credibility in my eyes for slotting our second pick in the wrong spot (i.e. giving us the Hawks pick at #15 instead of Brooklyn at #18, where they put Atlanta.)

 

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