Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation

[crimson_stallion]

Actually the Trade Machine says this wouldn't work - Knicks would be giving us $33,542,393 and we would only be giving them $28,555,855.

According to the TM we would need to add an additional $852,440 (at least) to make it work.

If we throw in Bogans than that makes it a perfect match.  Probably makes it more tempting for the Knicks as well...they get back $17M in expiring contracts (Hump + Bogans) and only have to take on $17M in long term contracts (Wallace + Bass).  Bass' deal is only for two years, so that's no worse off than the Amare/Andrea deals.  That means the only part they will get stuck with for longer is the extra year at $10M for Wallace.  That's basically a $17M saving for them come the end of this season, giving them the flexibility to makes some deals to improve the team and convince Carmello to return.

In addition to that they get four extra players on their roster.  The combination of Bass+Hump is probably more productive for them than Amare+Bargnani (if they want to make a Playoff run) and they could probably use defensive energy-guys like Wallace and Bogans on the bench.   

They would need to clear two roster spots to make it happen though (as this would put them at 17 players under contract).  I'd be happy enough to take Kenyon Martin and Toure Murray back...we could either keep them or buy them out for instant cap space.

So the end result would look something like this:

Knicks send:
------------
Amare Stoudemire
Andre Bargnani
Kenon Martin
Toure' Murray

Celtics send:
-------------
Kris Humphreys
Gerald Wallace
Brandon Bass
Keith Bogans 

How is that?

[Moranis]

I ran Amare/Bargs for Hump/Bass/Wallace through trade machine and it worked just fine.

[nickagneta]

Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.

No, it doesn't. 

The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing. 

It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks.  How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?

Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.

I think you may have stopped reading the original post as soon as it came to that part. Here, let me re-post what I said at the end of the post

Now,of course, the situation is fluid. Trades will change this. The Celtics' draft positioning will change this. Their decision on who to renounce will change this(remember they can just as easily not renounce any of the free agents' rights and then sign and trade them) but as of right now, it looks pretty much like major free agent money will not be a part of the Celtic's next year without a team signing and trading that free agent to the Celtics.

[obnoxiousmime]

I understand the motivation behind this, but I feel like Bass is already a tradeable guy for an expiring on his own. Assuming that is true, wouldn't a much simpler deal be Humphries and Wallace for Stoudemire alone?

The way the deal is now we're giving up two good players on expiring or inexpensive deals (Humphries and Bass) for two guys who are overrated and on horrible deals just for that one year of Wallace cap relief.

I guess the difference is I just don't see Stoudemire and Bargnani as having much on-court value. Having the Humphries deal off is good flexibility this offseason even if that space is not used on outside free agents.

[ssspence]

Nicely done Nick. I'd say there's a very high % that Bass is traded. I suspect the next most likely to go would be Green. A package of the two could be fairly attractive to a number of teams.

If the Cs traded those two for expiring(s) + a pick (hello Cleveland?) or expiring(s) + a rookie contract player, then they could re-sign Bradley, renounce or S&T Crawford, and yet still would be a player in FA this summer. Agreed?

If that turns out to be the case, the Cs could also choose to part with a pick or two (along with Bogans or PP trade exception) to bring back a nice vet to go with whoever they sign.

Example:

• Trade for Afflalo during the draft (Bogans + 2014 Atlanta pick + 2015 Clips pick);
• Draft a Center with our pick;
• Sign Chandler Parsons to a giant offer sheet, OR;
• (hate this idea) convince Melo to come to play with his boy Rajon.

Rondo
Afflalo
Parsons or Melo
Sully / KO
2014 Draft Pick at C
Bradley 6th man

[LooseCannon]

Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.

No, it doesn't. 

The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing. 

It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks.  How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?

Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.

I think you may have stopped reading the original post as soon as it came to that part. Here, let me re-post what I said at the end of the post

Now,of course, the situation is fluid. Trades will change this. The Celtics' draft positioning will change this. Their decision on who to renounce will change this(remember they can just as easily not renounce any of the free agents' rights and then sign and trade them) but as of right now, it looks pretty much like major free agent money will not be a part of the Celtic's next year without a team signing and trading that free agent to the Celtics.

It's a mistake to see things as a series of discrete transactions.  The Celtics will probably not make a move to free up cap space and then figure out who can be signed with that cap space.  Creating cap space with the hope that you will find a way to use it is often a bad strategy.  If Ainge signs a big free agent, it will probably involve reaching a tentative deal with a free agent, then figuring out what deals are necessary to free up cap space (which he may have already negotiated on a conditional basis).

I expect Ainge to make a courtesy call to the agents of players he covets to see if their asking price is worth making moves to clear cap space.

[BleedGreen1989]

So what does this look like after the Crawford/Brooks trade?

[mgent]

So what does this look like after the Crawford/Brooks trade?

Crawford and Brooks are free agents whose expirings contracts were coming off the books.  Joel Anthony is owed 3.8 mil next year, so instead of having around 7 mil in cap space if we renounced all our FAs (including Bradley), we'd only have ~3 million.

The first round pick would take away another 1-2mil if Philly makes the playoffs.  The second round pick doesn't affect anything because it's Miami's and will be #60 (never be signed).