Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation

[indeedproceed]

I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

  I'm still not sold on the idea of Avery getting $8M. Especially when he's a RFA.

I agree with this. It would take a desperate small market team with space and a gaping hole at the 2 to make a 'they won't possibly match it' offer. Did they close the loophole Morey used?

[nickagneta]

I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

Even if the Celtics Trade Bass, Crawford and Bradley for an expiring deal the best case scenario of a $62 million cap number, leaves maybe enough for a max level guy but it also means renouncing every free agent and the Pierce trade exception and means trying to attract a max level guy to come play here with

Rondo
Green
Wallace
Faverani
Sullinger
Olynyk
2 first round picks
1 mimi mid level exception guy
4-5 minimum salaried players

I gotta think that with the Boston weather, the Massachusetts state tax situation, this roster outlook and the lack of options moving forward and it would be a real tough sell getting ANY free agent to sign here.

[LarBrd33]

I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

Even if the Celtics Trade Bass, Crawford and Bradley for an expiring deal the best case scenario of a $62 million cap number, leaves maybe enough for a max level guy but it also means renouncing every free agent and the Pierce trade exception and means trying to attract a max level guy to come play here with

Rondo
Green
Wallace
Faverani
Sullinger
Olynyk
2 first round picks
1 mimi mid level exception guy
4-5 minimum salaried players

I gotta think that with the Boston weather, the Massachusetts state tax situation, this roster outlook and the lack of options moving forward and it would be a real tough sell getting ANY free agent to sign here.

Probably true.  But you never know... maybe keeping Rondo would attract some other stars.  Josh Smith, for instance, was keen on joining Boston.   

If you're getting a pick or a rookie-scale contract for Bradley... that's basically a wash.   Sacrificing Crawford and Bass isn't an issue, imho.  Those two are easily replaceable. 

But hey... change of subject.  Someone can clarify here.  Even if Boston doesn't make a trade from here on out... with our existing cap space (8 mil if we renounce everyone?) ... Would Boston be a player in sign-and-trades this summer?

For example... say we had 8 mil in cap space.  Say Melo has decided to flee the Knicks and has Clippers, Lakers, Bulls and Celtics on his list.   Couldn't you trade Green (9 mil) and Oly (2 mil) to the Knicks in a sign-and-trade and use your 8 mil in cap space to absorb Melo's starting salary (say 19 mil a year)?  Boston says yes, because they want Melo.  Knicks say yes, because they get Green and Oly instead of letting Melo walk for nothing.  Is that theoretically possible?   

[obnoxiousmime]

I am predicting Avery and Crawford both come back.  I'd like it to happen, assuming the rest of the year goes smoothly when Rondo comes back.  Crawford playing behind them seems like a great fit.

Hoping the numbers stay reasonable.  I feel pretty confident Crawford will but am a little worried about Avery getting some offers especially if his offense is consistent through the end of the year.

Define "reasonable." 15 million/year for two guards who are probably bench players on a good team? Is Crawford even going to want to return to the bench when there's probably a bad team out there that would promise him money/minutes? Re-signing both will tie up a big chunk of cap for the next 3-4 years.

I think Ainge would be willing to sign one at a fair price (6-7 million) but not both. Personally I'd trade both if the right deal came along.

[LooseCannon]

Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.

No, it doesn't. 

The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing. 

It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks.  How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?

Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.

[JSD]

I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

Even if the Celtics Trade Bass, Crawford and Bradley for an expiring deal the best case scenario of a $62 million cap number, leaves maybe enough for a max level guy but it also means renouncing every free agent and the Pierce trade exception and means trying to attract a max level guy to come play here with

Rondo
Green
Wallace
Faverani
Sullinger
Olynyk
2 first round picks
1 mimi mid level exception guy
4-5 minimum salaried players

I gotta think that with the Boston weather, the Massachusetts state tax situation, this roster outlook and the lack of options moving forward and it would be a real tough sell getting ANY free agent to sign here.

Probably true.  But you never know... maybe keeping Rondo would attract some other stars.  Josh Smith, for instance, was keen on joining Boston.   

If you're getting a pick or a rookie-scale contract for Bradley... that's basically a wash.   Sacrificing Crawford and Bass isn't an issue, imho.  Those two are easily replaceable. 

But hey... change of subject.  Someone can clarify here.  Even if Boston doesn't make a trade from here on out... with our existing cap space (8 mil if we renounce everyone?) ... Would Boston be a player in sign-and-trades this summer?

For example... say we had 8 mil in cap space.  Say Melo has decided to flee the Knicks and has Clippers, Lakers, Bulls and Celtics on his list.   Couldn't you trade Green (9 mil) and Oly (2 mil) to the Knicks in a sign-and-trade and use your 8 mil in cap space to absorb Melo's starting salary (say 19 mil a year)?  Boston says yes, because they want Melo.  Knicks say yes, because they get Green and Oly instead of letting Melo walk for nothing.  Is that theoretically possible?   

From my understanding that's absolutely possible...

If we did that clearing trade you mentioned before the last one, we would also have enough in 'chips' and cap space, to offer a player like Melo Bird Right type money because we have picks the Knicks would want. We could outbid, say the Lakers, anyway.

[LarBrd33]

Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.

No, it doesn't. 

The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing. 

It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks.  How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?

Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.

Same amount of people who would trade Bass, Green and three unprotected picks for Carmelo Anthony.  Probably a lot.

[obnoxiousmime]

Probably true.  But you never know... maybe keeping Rondo would attract some other stars.  Josh Smith, for instance, was keen on joining Boston.   
 

I'm impressed that you snuck this in there without drawing any guffaws (until now).

[crimson_stallion]

I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

I have to agree, I'm a bit 50/50 on this.

I really like Bradley and I would hate to see him leave, but I do feel like $8M is a bit steep for somebody who has still yet to show signs of any real consistency.

But...

Then I think about the fact that we effectively 'signed' Courtney Lee $5M/3 last season, and this was universally considered a golden deal.  Lee was 27 years old at the time so his upside was minimal, and his career averages per 36 minutes (13 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2 assists, 45% FG, 39$ 3PT, 84% FT) are hardly mind blowing.  Those are pure 'role player' numbers.  Plus defensively he has never been on an "All Defensive team" elite level, as Bradley is right now.  Also Lee was always a good athlete, but I wouldn't say he was an exceptional one.

By comparison, Avery Bradley right now is averaging averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds and 1.5 assists per 36 minutes.  He's also putting up nice shooting percentages for a guard (45% FG, 41%3PT, 71% FT).  Those are at least on par with Lee's numbers over his career, only Bradley is younger, has more upside, and is a far better defensive player. 

When you consider that Bradley is scoring an efficient 16 points per 36 minutes, while also playing elite defense...$8M a year doesn't seem that unrealistic.  Definately on the upper limit of what he's worth, but not unrealistic.  I can understand why he turned down the $6M extension - it's a reasonable offer, but at the same time he has justification for arguing that he's worth more. 

To put it into perspective O.J. Mayo recently signed a deal for what...$10M?  His career averages per-36 minutes are 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists along with 43% FG and 38% 3PT.  That's right around what Bradley is averaging this season, yet Mayo 3 years older than Bradley and is nowhere near as good defensively.

Bradley will get his money...I'd like to wait this season out and see if he continues to put up these types of numbers, but if he does then he's probably worth an $8M deal.  May well turn out to become a bargain (like the Rondo deal did - it was considered crazy at first).

[BleedGreen1989]

Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.

No, it doesn't. 

The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing. 

It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks.  How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?

Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.

I personally don't think you'd have to pay a team to take Bass. Wallace is obviously a different story. What would it take though? Clippers pick and an additional pick (either BOS 1st or one of the BRK firsts?)

If Lee can essentially be traded for an expiring without compensating the other team, then Bass should be able to fetch slightly better as he has a shorter deal and is probably the "better" player.

[Fafnir]

The poison pill Morey used on Asik and Lin only applies to Gilbert arenas RFAs who have 2 years service time. Avery will have 3 years and is a first round pick. So it isn't an option for other teams though there are other poison pill provisions. Mostly involving front loading and balloon payments. (Ie hurt the owners wallet and not your cap and tax)

[PhoSita]

I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

  I'm still not sold on the idea of Avery getting $8M. Especially when he's a RFA.

I agree with this. It would take a desperate small market team with space and a gaping hole at the 2 to make a 'they won't possibly match it' offer. Did they close the loophole Morey used?

I could see Avery getting a deal in the 4 year / 28-30 million range.  That might be too rich for the Celtics.  Avery brings some nice things to the table, but he's still a role player who's undersized for his position.

[Moranis]

How about Stoudemire & Bargnani for Humphries, Bass, Wallace

Boston shaves the year off of Wallace, but takes on more salary next year when I don't see Boston as a free agent player anyway and still keeps all of the picks.  Also gets a look at Bargnani and Stoudemire who might be useful bench players going forward (on greatly reduced salaries the next time around).

[crimson_stallion]

How about Stoudemire & Bargnani for Humphries, Bass, Wallace

Boston shaves the year off of Wallace, but takes on more salary next year when I don't see Boston as a free agent player anyway and still keeps all of the picks.  Also gets a look at Bargnani and Stoudemire who might be useful bench players going forward (on greatly reduced salaries the next time around).

Hmm...I would have to seriously consider this. 

Bass and Wallace is a no brainer, Hump is the only one I'd have to think about because he's playing so well.

Still, I think I'd have to say yes to this.  Amare (in limited minutes) is starting to look like his old self again, and as much as I dislike Bargnani he does have his uses...and we could really use a shooter like him to stretch the floor. 

I actually think a duo of Bargnani + Sully would work very well together because Bargnani would spread the floor with his shooting, giving Sully the space he needs to operate around the basket...while Sully would make up for Bargnani's rebounding limitations.

I also think that Olynyk + Amare would make a nice pair.  Both can score inside or out, both are decent rebounders, and both are more or less 7 footers.  That would make for a pretty nice front court to bring off the bench. 

Plus once Rondo comes back, the thought of a Rondo + Amare pick and roll makes me smile.

Hump isn't getting the minutes he deserves here anyway, and we are unlikely to be any good next year regardless.  The duo of Amare + Bargnani combined have two years (and $33M) on the books, so this puts us in a VERY good financial position after next season ends.

AND we get to keep all of our picks.

Yeh, if I were DA I would have to say yes to this.   

[pokeKingCurtis]

We should steal another one of the Knicks' firsts while we're at it.

That dude is just GIVING them away.