Author Topic: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation  (Read 4277 times)

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Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« on: January 05, 2014, 08:27:24 PM »

Online nickagneta

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So after the Bayless for Lee swap let's look at where the Celtics stand for next off season regarding their salary.(all numbers from shamsports.com)


Rajon Rondo    $12,909,091
Gerald Wallace    $10,105,855
Jeff Green    $9,200,000
Brandon Bass    $6,900,000
Vitor Faverani    $2,090,000
Kelly Olynyk    $2,075,760
Jared Sullinger $1,424,520

That's 7 totally guaranteed contracts totaling $44,705,226

If every other non-guaranteed contract was let go and every free agents renounced the Celtics cap number would stand at approximately:

Guaranteed contracts: $44,705,226
Empty player slots holds: 3 x $507,336 = $1,522,008
First round pick holds: +/- $4,000,000(taking holds for the 7th and 16th positions this number could fluctuate greatly if the C's get a top 3 pick)

Total salary: $50,227,234

Assuming a salary cap of about $58 million that leaves a total salary cap space after this trade of a little less than $8 million or

Keith Bogans    $5,285,817
Phil Pressey    $816,482

Are both non-guaranteed contracts. I think its safe to say Bogans is history but Pressey might stick around another year. If he does that adds $816,482 to the guaranteed salary and eliminates an empty salary slot hold of $507,336 for a total change of salary to $50,536,380 which really doesn't change our available salary under the cap much.

Now the following players have cap holds because they are free agents

Kris Humphries  $18,000,000
Avery Bradley    $6,278,580
Jordan Crawford $5,406,048
Jerryd Bayless    $4,075,500
MarShon Brooks  $2,179,354

I think its fairly certain to say that Humphries, Bayless and Brooks would be certainties to be renounced if the Celtics decide to try to stay under or close to as possible the cap. Bradley and Crawford could be offered qualifying offers and if they do then their cap holds stay until they sign a contract with another team, sign a multi-year contract with the Celtics or accept the qualifying offer and sign that one year deal with the Celtics.

Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.

Now,of course, the situation is fluid. Trades will change this. The Celtics' draft positioning will change this. Their decision on who to renounce will change this(remember they can just as easily not renounce any of the free agents' rights and then sign and trade them) but as of right now, it looks pretty much like major free agent money will not be a part of the Celtic's next year without a team signing and trading that free agent to the Celtics.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2014, 08:36:46 PM by nickagneta »
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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2014, 08:47:55 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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nice breakdown Nick but it was pretty much a given that the C's wouldn't be players in the FA market next year.  The talent level on the team wouldn't justify adding a high-priced vet when we're looking for a lotto-rookie to boost the franchise and our promising youth still needs to develop into solid players or trade assets.  (preferably solid players since they'd presumably be more affordable and under team control for a while longer)

Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2014, 08:51:12 PM »

Online nickagneta

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nice breakdown Nick but it was pretty much a given that the C's wouldn't be players in the FA market next year.  The talent level on the team wouldn't justify adding a high-priced vet when we're looking for a lotto-rookie to boost the franchise and our promising youth still needs to develop into solid players or trade assets.  (preferably solid players since they'd presumably be more affordable and under team control for a while longer)
I wasn't saying the C's would be making a free agency move next year, just laying out what the staus quo was right now my friend. My guess is I will update this more when other trades happen in the future this year.
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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2014, 08:54:59 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Nice breakdown, nick.  One other "hold" is the trade exception.  If we want to use cap room, I believe we need to renounce that exception (or let it expire).

We've got two decent avenues of adding a free agent above the MLE:

1.  Via S&T through the trade exception;

2.  Via S&T utilizing Bogans and Pressey's non-guaranteed contracts.

Neither is enough for a max contract, but they're potentially large enough to land a couple of decent players.  In theory, we could use both and stay under the luxury tax.

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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2014, 08:55:36 PM »

Online Lucky17

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Nice breakdown, nick.

Only thing I would add is that the salary cap is projected to be a little higher than your estimate: at about $62 million.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/6/4/4394314/projected-nba-salary-cap-and-tax-threshold-established
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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2014, 09:02:03 PM »

Online BleedGreen1989

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Us cap nerds lol I just literally left Shamsports mapping this all out in my head.

Moving Lee's $15mill+ guaranteed is an awesome move in early January. I like the flexibility.

I could see Bass being moved for an expiring/sweetner.

Rolling further with dumping Bass, say Danny throws some team this summer the LAC pick and an additional pick to eat Wallace, he could have enough for a max free agent and then some.

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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2014, 09:03:34 PM »

Online nickagneta

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Nice breakdown, nick.

Only thing I would add is that the salary cap is projected to be a little higher than your estimate: at about $62 million.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/6/4/4394314/projected-nba-salary-cap-and-tax-threshold-established
Yeah the league has projected higher numbers in the past by millions only to have the audit come back and have the projects be off. Until the audit I think I will go with a lower estimate as things things tend to go flat once the real numbers come in.
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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2014, 09:03:53 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Wallace's salary ostensibly takes us out of the running for signing a max FA. I can't envision us being able to move him barring Magic Johnson taking over an NBA team. I'm fine with this. It's the pill we had to swallow for the Nets trade.

Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2014, 09:08:55 PM »

Offline VitorSullyandKOFan

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Wallace's salary ostensibly takes us out of the running for signing a max FA. I can't envision us being able to move him barring Magic Johnson taking over an NBA team. I'm fine with this. It's the pill we had to swallow for the Nets trade.

Yep we have maneuver around his contract because is terrible but if we made the right moves he could be a 7-8 guy on a competitive team next year.

Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2014, 11:30:52 PM »

Offline JSD

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This is the type of content and analysis I come to CB for. Thanks Nick.

The Celtics are going to be in a flexible financial situation for the first time since the very beginning of the Pitino era.

Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2014, 11:41:44 PM »

Offline Snakehead

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I am predicting Avery and Crawford both come back.  I'd like it to happen, assuming the rest of the year goes smoothly when Rondo comes back.  Crawford playing behind them seems like a great fit.

Hoping the numbers stay reasonable.  I feel pretty confident Crawford will but am a little worried about Avery getting some offers especially if his offense is consistent through the end of the year.


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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2014, 11:54:48 PM »

Offline IndeedProceed

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Normally Id say this is the 'first shoe to drop' due to the salary considerations but in this case I think Courtney Lee might have worn out his welcome some time ago.

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Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2014, 12:01:24 AM »

Offline freshinthehouse

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I am of the belief that Ainge isn't looking to make any major splashes in free agency this off-season.  I think next season is also going to be looked at as a rebuilding year.  If anything, I could see any cap room we do have being used as a trade chip a la the Utah Jazz this off-season.

Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #13 on: January 06, 2014, 12:11:59 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

Re: Post trade look at next year's salary cap situation
« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2014, 12:30:38 AM »

Online BballTim

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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...

but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick.  That dramatically changes our flexibility.  I assume we'll renounce Crawford.  If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.

Look, I actually like Bradley.  I think he's probably a long-term bench player though.  And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it.  I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.

  I'm still not sold on the idea of Avery getting $8M. Especially when he's a RFA.

 

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