Author Topic: Imho, there is a huge drop off after Parker and Embiid. We need a top two pick.  (Read 13682 times)

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Offline wahz

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I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, nor does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.

If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?

Offline jambr380

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I haven't watched a ton of college basketball this year, but I think there are a LOT of people who would just as easily say that Wiggins and Randle are the top 2 with a huge drop off after them...Exum might even get some love.

Overall, we should be quite excited if we land in the top 6...ya know, if we aren't going to contend for a championship this year.

Offline moiso

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I'd be thrilled with a top 5 pick.  I think they will all be excellent.  Smart would be my guy if we got #6 but I'm not as thrilled with him as the first 5.

Offline LarBrd33

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I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, nor does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.

If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?
I'm going to ask you the same question I ask every sudden "expert".

Do you watch College basketball religiously every year?  Do you typically have a good eye for who will end up being stars in the NBA?  Or did you just watch a few games this year and make up your mind? 

Offline CFAN38

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From watching the top 6 (minus exum who I can only go by scouting reports) I can see most teams viewing the top 6 as two separate tiers. 1 Parker, wiggins, and embiid.  2 exum, smart and randle. 

Offline Neurotic Guy

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I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, no does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.

If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?

I am interested in your response to the following:

Some historical perspective on drop-offs.   Rate the drop off you predict in 2014 compared with others from 2001-2008:

Note: I'll stick to top picks -- I won't refer to steals down the list as these occur in every draft. But it seems true that you can see somewhat of a general drop-off (with obvious player exceptions) each year past the top picks. 

Which of the following drop-off scenarios do you think most closely resembles the 2014 draft or do you think the 2014 draft could be uniquely talented as compared with these drafts?

2001: (Omit Kwame Brown): 
From: Tyson Chandler (2) and Pao Gasol (3)
To: Eddie Curry (4), Jason Richardson (5), Shane Battier (6), Eddie Griffin (7), Dasagna Diop (8. 

2002:
From: Yao Ming
To: Jay Williams (2), Mike Dunleavy (3), Drew Gooden (4), Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5), Dujuan Wagner (6), Nene (7), Chris Wilcox (8

2003 (Omit Darko):
From Lebron (1), Carmelo (3), Bosh (4), Wade (5),
To: Kaman (6), Hinrich (7), TJ Ford (8, Sweetney (9), Jarvis Hayes (10), Pietrus (11)

2004:
From: Dwight Howard, Okafur (2), Ben Gordon (3)
To: Shaun Livingston, Devin Harris, Childress, Deng, Rafael Arujo, Iguadala

2005:
From: Bogut (1) Marvin Williams (2), DWill (3), CP3 (4)
To: Felton (5) Martell Webster (6), Villanueva (7), Frye (8, Diogu (9), Bynum (10)

2006:
From: Bargnani (1) and Aldridge (2)
To: Adam Morrison (3), Ty Thomas (4), Sheldon Willims (5), Roy (6), Foye (7), Gay (8, Patrick O'Bryant (9)

2007:
From: Oden (1), Durant (2), Horford (3)
To: Conley (4), Jeff Green (5), Jianlian (6), Corey Brewer (7), Brandon Wright (8, Noah (9)

2008:
From: Rose (1), Beasley (2), Mayo (3), Westbrook (4) Love (5)
To: Galinaro (6), Eric Gordon (7), Joe Alexander (8, DJ Augustin (9), B Lopez (10)


Going back a little further, the dropoff from Tim Duncan to Keith Van Horn and the rest (save the eventual emergence of Chuncey Billups) was astronomical.


What do you think the 2014 dropoff (as you say, after Parker and Embiid) will be using historical comparisons?

Offline Celtics4ever

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Speaking of Dropping off anyone see Parker choke yesterday and get crushed by ND?

2-10 Shooting
1-5 3P shooting

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400502771

He stunk up the joint and played horrible.  Hood looked better.

Offline LarBrd33

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Speaking of Dropping off anyone see Parker choke yesterday and get crushed by ND?

2-10 Shooting
1-5 3P shooting

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400502771

He stunk up the joint and played horrible.  Hood looked better.
I admittedly don't follow College ball... but I think all these brand new experts need to do themselves a service and take a look at the Freshman College stats for some of their favorite NBA stars.  They might be surprised to see guys like Paul Pierce averaging a mere 12 points on 41%/30%/60% shooting.  It might surprise them to see that Shaq averaged 14 points as  College freshman.   I really think people watch College games expecting NBA stats and then overreact when a stud like Wiggins is "only" averaging 15 (efficient) points as a College Freshman.

Also, I feel like a lot of these "brand new experts" don't understand the difference between putting up 20 points for Duke vs putting up 30 points for Washington State.

Parker is averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1 steal on 51%/43%/74% shooting ... Someone with knowledge of College ball should chime in here.  How are those stats for a Freshman playing at Duke.  Is that pretty common?

Offline BballTim

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I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, nor does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.

If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?
I'm going to ask you the same question I ask every sudden "expert".

Do you watch College basketball religiously every year?  Do you typically have a good eye for who will end up being stars in the NBA?  Or did you just watch a few games this year and make up your mind?

  Aside from the "sudden experts" there are the skeptics, who realize that the pundits and scouts who watch college hoops religiously aren't overly accurate in their predictions. Don't forget about us.

Offline LarBrd33

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Speaking of Dropping off anyone see Parker choke yesterday and get crushed by ND?

2-10 Shooting
1-5 3P shooting

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400502771

He stunk up the joint and played horrible.  Hood looked better.
I admittedly don't follow College ball... but I think all these brand new experts need to do themselves a service and take a look at the Freshman College stats for some of their favorite NBA stars.  They might be surprised to see guys like Paul Pierce averaging a mere 12 points on 41%/30%/60% shooting.  It might surprise them to see that Shaq averaged 14 points as  College freshman.   I really think people watch College games expecting NBA stats and then overreact when a stud like Wiggins is "only" averaging 15 (efficient) points as a College Freshman.

Also, I feel like a lot of these "brand new experts" don't understand the difference between putting up 20 points for Duke vs putting up 30 points for Washington State.

Parker is averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1 steal on 51%/43%/74% shooting ... Someone with knowledge of College ball should chime in here.  How are those stats for a Freshman playing at Duke.  Is that pretty common?

I'll just answer the question myself.  What Parker is doing right now at Duke is unprecedented.  He's easily the best Duke freshman in history.   Possibly the best player that school has ever had.   Grant Hill is typically regarded as one of the 3 best players in that school's history... he averaged 11 points and 5 rebounds as a freshman.  Compare Hill's senior year to Parker's Freshman year and you might have a discussion. Hill averaged 17 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and a block in 36 minutes per game.  Again, Parker is averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds 2 assist, 1 block and 1 steal in 29 minutes. 

Should have little trouble averaging 25-30 in the league.

Offline slamtheking

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I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, nor does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.

If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?
I'm going to ask you the same question I ask every sudden "expert".

Do you watch College basketball religiously every year?  Do you typically have a good eye for who will end up being stars in the NBA?  Or did you just watch a few games this year and make up your mind?

  Aside from the "sudden experts" there are the skeptics, who realize that the pundits and scouts who watch college hoops religiously aren't overly accurate in their predictions. Don't forget about us.
don't mind him.  he's just upset that if the Wahz is right, LB's whole tanking philosophy for this year becomes a pipe dream and rooting for this team to lose has been fool's errand.

Offline LarBrd33

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I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, nor does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.

If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?
I'm going to ask you the same question I ask every sudden "expert".

Do you watch College basketball religiously every year?  Do you typically have a good eye for who will end up being stars in the NBA?  Or did you just watch a few games this year and make up your mind?

  Aside from the "sudden experts" there are the skeptics, who realize that the pundits and scouts who watch college hoops religiously aren't overly accurate in their predictions. Don't forget about us.
don't mind him.  he's just upset that if the Wahz is right, LB's whole tanking philosophy for this year becomes a pipe dream and rooting for this team to lose has been fool's errand.
Wahz is right?... that there's a massive dropoff after Parker and Embiid?

Funny... draftexpress has Wiggins and Randle going #1 and #2.  Chad Ford had Wiggins and Randle #1 and #2 until recently when he moved up Parker to #2.

Also, I love the leap that "wahtz being right" means LarBrd33's wrong.  I asked if wahtz had some basis for his minority view.. apparently that makes me "wrong".   ::)

Also, scouts/pundits and draft experts have a better track record than the skeptics would like you to believe. There are some hits and misses, but typically when they say a guy is "can't miss", he usually doesn't miss.

Online Smartacus

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I've been a draft fiend for about three years now and I can at least say that the top 7 of this draft has higher potential than any one in last year's draft save for Antetokunmpo(who I was high on since the moment I saw him and was hoping we'd draft him).

Credentials:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=63261.0 (back before anyone even knew how to spell his name 8))

Follow that with solid B+ prospects like Rodney Hood, James Young, Jerami Grant, Willey Caullie Stein (I think Rondo could turn him into a player- former QB to former wide reciever) and we're looking like we're in business. Not to mention there's athletes availible in the mid to late first round like Zack LaVine, Montrezl Harrel, Gary Harris and Glenn Robinson III.

Sorry but no matter how much folks want to discount the talent in this draft it's still miles ahead of most years. Even the hype factory Andrew Wiggins is beginning to be considered so overrated that he's becoming vastly underrated. People always forget that he kills the U.S. team in international play. I'll go on record and say that I'd still take him over Jabari Parker since I think his game will translate to the spacing of the NBA and Parker is probably at greater risk of injury.

Offline BballTim

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Also, scouts/pundits and draft experts have a better track record than the skeptics would like you to believe. There are some hits and misses, but typically when they say a guy is "can't miss", he usually doesn't miss.

  Sure, that's what they say. You just have to rely on their ever-changing definition of what constitutes a miss.

Offline nickagneta

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Having watched college basketball pretty religiously I know that comparing college stats for freshmen the last couple few years to freshmen from years ago is like comparing apples and oranges.

First for decades, freshmen were not even eligible to play varsity sports in college. I believe it was the Marshal tragedy in college football that changed that in the 70's. Even after that it took many many yuears for some old school coaches to even play freshmen, as they would rather sit them and have them learn. But even when they did get playing time, for the most part they were playing players 2-3 years older than them and just as talented. Most players even with great talent stay four years in college.

But the 80's and 90's and 00's slowly started a trend where underclassmen started declaring for the draft and the most talented of talented possible incoming freshmen just ignored college and went straight to the pros. Slowly over time the college game has gotten watered down to the point where modern college basketball is no where near the quality of the game it was years ago.

Freshmen in the past didn't put up big numbers because they weren't allowed to play, didn't play as they earned their stripes behind upper classmen, played against very talented teams filled with pro level players that stayed in school, or had the best of the best freshmen declare for the NBA and so never played in college as freshmen.

Today's freshmen rule college basketball in a watered down game. The current freshmen are the stars whereas the stars of years ago were talented upper classmen that had stayed in a system for years and become excellent pro level players.

Its just unfair to compare numbers from pro's who had a freshmen season years and years ago to today's current freshmen who play a different role in a much different game.

And besides, as I have said so many times before, you don't judge future NBA prospects by their stats, you judge them on their abilities and mental makeups. People make the same mistake when players go off in the Summer League and expect similar professional results in the NBA.


 

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