I think I have seen enough to be confident that there are two guys who will make a huge difference wherever they go and beyond them there are no sure stars. The difference between 2nd and 3rd is going to be large. And Embiid doesn't look like an old man, no does he look fragile. He is quick. He seems to be working very hard. Not much needs to be said about Parker. He is the most complete player already.
If we assume that the difference between the third and second draft position will be very large, what can we realistically do to move up without losing too much?
I am interested in your response to the following:
Some historical perspective on drop-offs. Rate the drop off you predict in 2014 compared with others from 2001-2008:
Note: I'll stick to top picks -- I won't refer to steals down the list as these occur in every draft. But it seems true that you can see somewhat of a general drop-off (with obvious player exceptions) each year past the top picks.
Which of the following drop-off scenarios do you think most closely resembles the 2014 draft or do you think the 2014 draft could be uniquely talented as compared with these drafts?
2001: (Omit Kwame Brown):
From: Tyson Chandler (2) and Pao Gasol (3)
To: Eddie Curry (4), Jason Richardson (5), Shane Battier (6), Eddie Griffin (7), Dasagna Diop (8.
From: Yao Ming
To: Jay Williams (2), Mike Dunleavy (3), Drew Gooden (4), Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5), Dujuan Wagner (6), Nene (7), Chris Wilcox (8
2003 (Omit Darko):
From Lebron (1), Carmelo (3), Bosh (4), Wade (5),
To: Kaman (6), Hinrich (7), TJ Ford (8, Sweetney (9), Jarvis Hayes (10), Pietrus (11)
From: Dwight Howard, Okafur (2), Ben Gordon (3)
To: Shaun Livingston, Devin Harris, Childress, Deng, Rafael Arujo, Iguadala
From: Bogut (1) Marvin Williams (2), DWill (3), CP3 (4)
To: Felton (5) Martell Webster (6), Villanueva (7), Frye (8, Diogu (9), Bynum (10)
From: Bargnani (1) and Aldridge (2)
To: Adam Morrison (3), Ty Thomas (4), Sheldon Willims (5), Roy (6), Foye (7), Gay (8, Patrick O'Bryant (9)
From: Oden (1), Durant (2), Horford (3)
To: Conley (4), Jeff Green (5), Jianlian (6), Corey Brewer (7), Brandon Wright (8, Noah (9)
From: Rose (1), Beasley (2), Mayo (3), Westbrook (4) Love (5)
To: Galinaro (6), Eric Gordon (7), Joe Alexander (8, DJ Augustin (9), B Lopez (10)
Going back a little further, the dropoff from Tim Duncan to Keith Van Horn and the rest (save the eventual emergence of Chuncey Billups) was astronomical.
What do you think the 2014 dropoff (as you say, after Parker and Embiid) will be using historical comparisons?