Author Topic: Tankers Rejoice  (Read 9076 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #90 on: January 05, 2014, 01:52:49 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7229
  • Tommy Points: 931
game to tomorrow

It would be really really helpful for  "The Cause " for the

Nets to beat the Hawks ......please please please let the Nets win.   LoLa :)

I'd rather the Hawks win that one.  I think with Horford out, the Hawks will start to fall, and every time the Nets win I worry that they'll put it together.  I want both of those teams to somehow miss the playoffs.

It's close to a no-lose, but I tend (for the time being) to agree with saltlover.  I think the Hawks will crash and the Nets will rise over the next few months.  Any Nets loss now will be good for later. 

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #91 on: January 05, 2014, 02:16:13 PM »

Offline ssspence

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • ****
  • Posts: 4594
  • Tommy Points: 264
  • James Naismith to Dickey Betts for the jam.....
I'd put perfect pizza up against a lobbie any day. Ever had the clam pie at Pepe's in New Haven? If i had a choice of one last meal before heading for the big house, that might be it...

Its funny, when I was typing all that in the back of my head my inner foodie was like.."Yeah, but remember that pizza you had in New York? The one where you froze the last slice so you could enjoy it later? That was pretty good pizza. And you've paid a lot more at prime rib joints for far less satisfaction."

Patsy's is good, but can't match some other NY pies. John's on Bleecker comes to mind. Lombardy's = strong. I love Arturo's on Houston St. None of them can touch Pepe's or Sally's in New Haven. Go!


Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #92 on: January 05, 2014, 02:26:50 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

  • Courtney Lee
  • Posts: 150
  • Tommy Points: 20
Rejoicing over losing streaks...counter intuitive.

Ainge set this team up for 30 wins or so....obviously. Looks like he will get his wish. I suggest that the draft pick will be traded. This is fine as I prefer not to watch too many rookies "develop."

This roster needs a lot. If a high pick helps meet those needs? At least the Patriots are killin' it.

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #93 on: January 05, 2014, 02:35:26 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8716
  • Tommy Points: 1125
Quote
You can land a good player at eight or you can land a good player at eighteen.  I think history has shown that the draft is nowhere near as exact a science as those rooting for ping pong balls would like it to be. 

If you go back and look at every draft from the last 30 years, this is true in the letter but not in implication, at least the implication I got from what you said.

True: You can land a player at pick 8 or pick 18
False: you have about as good a chance of landing a good player at 8 as you do at 18

There is actually a pretty big discrepancy between the odds of landing a good play at 8 compared with landing a good player at 18. That's a tangential argument, Id be pretty annoyed if we suffered through a rebuilding year and only got an 8th overall, but it's a commonly made, 'well player x was picked at 18, and that just proves there is still talent at 18', because while it's true, it doesn't acknowledge there is a much better chance of getting a dud there as well. The counterpoint to this is 'Kwame Brown was a first overall, how did that turn out?', and it's no less of a false equivalency.

I mean people always bring up Rondo and Big Al.  Technically Rondo wasn't even our draft pick... they were giving picks away for free that year.  We bought Rondo after the Suns drafted him.   

Pretty sure Boston has never drafted a superstar with a pick 15 and above.  They have drafted superstars in the Top 8, though.  ;)

You look over our list of guys taken 15 and over and you'll see names like Lucas Nogueira, Sullinger, Fab Melo, Marshon Brooks, Avery Bradley, JR Giddens, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Joe Forte, Acie Earl.  Sure there's some good players and good role players there, but lots of garbage too.

Boston's picks in the top 8 since 1970:

Dave Cowens, Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Len Bias, Antoine Walker, Chauncey Billups, Ron Mercer, Randy Foye, Jeff Green

Sure there's some duds in there too, but I like our track record.  Hah.

My point is that a vast majority of bona fide superstars are taken in the top five.  Once you get outside the top five, it is very rare that you get a "franchise type superstar."  Larry Bird, for example, is the only sixth pick taken since 1970 who makes Elrod Enchilada's much discussed list of superstars.

The seventh pick has yielded two lower level superstars, Bernard King and Chris Mullin, over that time period.

Robert Parish is the only one selected eighth.

Ninth did fairly well with Nowitzki, McGrady, and Stoudemire all selected there.

Tenth has two stars named Paul, Pierce and George. There have been no stars picked eleventh.

Dr. J. was picked 12th.

Bryant and Karl Malone were both selected thirteenth.

Clyde Drexler and Tim Hardaway at 14.

Nash, Stockton, Shawn Kemp,  Joe Dumars, and Tiny Archibald were taken in the late teens from fifteen to nineteen.

Twentieth is Gus Williams, twenty-first, Rondo.

None taken at twenty-two.  Alex English at twenty-three.

The 24th, 25th, and 26th picks have yielded no Enchilada superstars since 1970.

Rodman was taken 27th, Tony Parker 28th, and Dennis Johnson 29th.  Spencer Haywood was taken 30th, and the Ice Man, George Gervin was taken 40th.

Finally, there's Ben Wallace, who went undrafted.

By my count, 38 of Enchilada's superstars drafted since 1970 were taken in the top five.  28 were taken outside of the top five.  Of the 28 superstars taken outside the top five, fourteen were selected at spots 6 through 14, the lower lottery.  The other fourteen were taken outside the lottery. 

Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

I guess my overall point here is that if you are really rooting for tanking, you should be rooting for a bottom five record and a top five pick.  There's no point in tanking for a mid-lottery pick. 

Rejoicing in the possibility of a pick somewhere in the 6 to 12 range seems pointless.  If that's where we are going to end up, I'd rather see the team maximize their win potential and hope for some good talent in the draft, regardless of where in the first round we end up picking. 

And, by the way, I'm still not rooting for a bottom five finish.  I simply don't think I can bear to see this team lose enough games to get that low, considering the competition for worst.  And, despite this rough West coast trip coming up, I just don't think we'll end up with enough losses to be in the bottom five.

I'm rooting for wins every time out.  I'm strong enough to deal with the losses. 
Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers  DKC General Manager

Dennis Schroeder/Ray McCallum
Tyreke Evans/Jeremy Lamb/R. Ledo
Giannis Antetokounpo/Darrell Arthur/V. Claver
Kelly Olynyk/Nerlens Noel/C. Jefferson
Brandan Wright/Timofey Mozgov/A. Nicholson

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #94 on: January 05, 2014, 02:38:52 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7229
  • Tommy Points: 931
Rejoicing over losing streaks...counter intuitive.

Ainge set this team up for 30 wins or so....obviously. Looks like he will get his wish. I suggest that the draft pick will be traded. This is fine as I prefer not to watch too many rookies "develop."

This roster needs a lot. If a high pick helps meet those needs? At least the Patriots are killin' it.

Since everything is about perspective -- not what IS happening but how we view what is happening, I offer that I (for one) am not rejoicing in losing streaks, but rather, am rejoicing in the prospect of a high draft pick and what I believe to be the best chance for remergence and lasting contention. 

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #95 on: January 05, 2014, 02:40:30 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11131
  • Tommy Points: 685
game to tomorrow

It would be really really helpful for  "The Cause " for the

Nets to beat the Hawks ......please please please let the Nets win.   LoLa :)

I'd rather the Hawks win that one.  I think with Horford out, the Hawks will start to fall, and every time the Nets win I worry that they'll put it together.  I want both of those teams to somehow miss the playoffs.

It's close to a no-lose, but I tend (for the time being) to agree with saltlover.  I think the Hawks will crash and the Nets will rise over the next few months.  Any Nets loss now will be good for later.
Don't forget that the Nets winning is also beneficial to our own pick.  We're currently the 9th worst record... the Nets going on a win streak and making the playoffs doesn't really impact us unless you REALLY think Atlanta is going to plummet.  All a Brooklyn win streak does is put us into the Top 8 of the draft.

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #96 on: January 05, 2014, 02:41:22 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

  • Global Moderator
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 39045
  • Tommy Points: 1971
  • You ain't the boss of the freakin' bedclothes.
Quote
Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

Alright. Alright fine. FINE!!!!

I'll go through the drafts of the last 20 years. Sonofabiscuit. Only cuz I have an obsessive need to be right that frustrates myself and those around me. BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THAT.

I shall...return.

DKC Portland Trailblazers Team Card
Questions about the DKC? Ask here: LINK
Free Agency Tracker: Link

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #97 on: January 05, 2014, 02:42:26 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11131
  • Tommy Points: 685
Quote
You can land a good player at eight or you can land a good player at eighteen.  I think history has shown that the draft is nowhere near as exact a science as those rooting for ping pong balls would like it to be. 

If you go back and look at every draft from the last 30 years, this is true in the letter but not in implication, at least the implication I got from what you said.

True: You can land a player at pick 8 or pick 18
False: you have about as good a chance of landing a good player at 8 as you do at 18

There is actually a pretty big discrepancy between the odds of landing a good play at 8 compared with landing a good player at 18. That's a tangential argument, Id be pretty annoyed if we suffered through a rebuilding year and only got an 8th overall, but it's a commonly made, 'well player x was picked at 18, and that just proves there is still talent at 18', because while it's true, it doesn't acknowledge there is a much better chance of getting a dud there as well. The counterpoint to this is 'Kwame Brown was a first overall, how did that turn out?', and it's no less of a false equivalency.

I mean people always bring up Rondo and Big Al.  Technically Rondo wasn't even our draft pick... they were giving picks away for free that year.  We bought Rondo after the Suns drafted him.   

Pretty sure Boston has never drafted a superstar with a pick 15 and above.  They have drafted superstars in the Top 8, though.  ;)

You look over our list of guys taken 15 and over and you'll see names like Lucas Nogueira, Sullinger, Fab Melo, Marshon Brooks, Avery Bradley, JR Giddens, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Joe Forte, Acie Earl.  Sure there's some good players and good role players there, but lots of garbage too.

Boston's picks in the top 8 since 1970:

Dave Cowens, Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Len Bias, Antoine Walker, Chauncey Billups, Ron Mercer, Randy Foye, Jeff Green

Sure there's some duds in there too, but I like our track record.  Hah.

My point is that a vast majority of bona fide superstars are taken in the top five.  Once you get outside the top five, it is very rare that you get a "franchise type superstar."  Larry Bird, for example, is the only sixth pick taken since 1970 who makes Elrod Enchilada's much discussed list of superstars.

The seventh pick has yielded two lower level superstars, Bernard King and Chris Mullin, over that time period.

Robert Parish is the only one selected eighth.

Ninth did fairly well with Nowitzki, McGrady, and Stoudemire all selected there.

Tenth has two stars named Paul, Pierce and George. There have been no stars picked eleventh.

Dr. J. was picked 12th.

Bryant and Karl Malone were both selected thirteenth.

Clyde Drexler and Tim Hardaway at 14.

Nash, Stockton, Shawn Kemp,  Joe Dumars, and Tiny Archibald were taken in the late teens from fifteen to nineteen.

Twentieth is Gus Williams, twenty-first, Rondo.

None taken at twenty-two.  Alex English at twenty-three.

The 24th, 25th, and 26th picks have yielded no Enchilada superstars since 1970.

Rodman was taken 27th, Tony Parker 28th, and Dennis Johnson 29th.  Spencer Haywood was taken 30th, and the Ice Man, George Gervin was taken 40th.

Finally, there's Ben Wallace, who went undrafted.

By my count, 38 of Enchilada's superstars drafted since 1970 were taken in the top five.  28 were taken outside of the top five.  Of the 28 superstars taken outside the top five, fourteen were selected at spots 6 through 14, the lower lottery.  The other fourteen were taken outside the lottery. 

Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

I guess my overall point here is that if you are really rooting for tanking, you should be rooting for a bottom five record and a top five pick.  There's no point in tanking for a mid-lottery pick. 

Rejoicing in the possibility of a pick somewhere in the 6 to 12 range seems pointless.  If that's where we are going to end up, I'd rather see the team maximize their win potential and hope for some good talent in the draft, regardless of where in the first round we end up picking. 

And, by the way, I'm still not rooting for a bottom five finish.  I simply don't think I can bear to see this team lose enough games to get that low, considering the competition for worst.  And, despite this rough West coast trip coming up, I just don't think we'll end up with enough losses to be in the bottom five.

I'm rooting for wins every time out.  I'm strong enough to deal with the losses.
I realize that by bringing up that stuff (our track record with picks), I was being hypocritical.  Bottom line is it's a lot of history that has nothing to do with the 2014 draft. 

If the experts say this draft is 8 players deep... we're best served drafting in the Top 8.  Nuff said.

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #98 on: January 05, 2014, 02:47:26 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11131
  • Tommy Points: 685
Quote
Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

Alright. Alright fine. FINE!!!!

I'll go through the drafts of the last 20 years. Sonofabiscuit. Only cuz I have an obsessive need to be right that frustrates myself and those around me. BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THAT.

I shall...return.
Pretty sure someone did an extensive study in a thread a month or two ago that basically proved your chances of landing a star in the Top 6 was dramatically higher than landing a star later in the draft.  There are rare exceptions that people love to bring up (Rondo at 21), but generally if you're goal is to land an impact player through the draft, you're obviously better off picking with a Top pick.   There's countless guys picked 15-30 who were horrible.

And again... none of this is all that relevant.  What matters is the 2014 draft.  If experts say this draft is 8 players deep, I want a Top 8 pick.  In 2007 they said it was a 2 player draft... I wanted a Top 2 pick.   This year, there's a lot more options.  Sounds like Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid, Smart and Exum are the consensus top picks in some order... and by the end of March we might be throwing a couple more names into the fire.

The drooling over this draft by experts scares some fans who fear a League-changing draft that might not involve their team... so it's caused some backlash where fans say "no way it's that good... they are all overrated".  We're seeing a post about that once a week with someone who has watched 2 college games and thinks they are an expert now. 

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #99 on: January 05, 2014, 02:50:33 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8716
  • Tommy Points: 1125
Quote
Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

Alright. Alright fine. FINE!!!!

I'll go through the drafts of the last 20 years. Sonofabiscuit. Only cuz I have an obsessive need to be right that frustrates myself and those around me. BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THAT.

I shall...return.

I've already done it, but only because I have the same obsessive need that you do.  I actually posted a thread about it elsewhere. 

I eagerly await your findings. 
Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers  DKC General Manager

Dennis Schroeder/Ray McCallum
Tyreke Evans/Jeremy Lamb/R. Ledo
Giannis Antetokounpo/Darrell Arthur/V. Claver
Kelly Olynyk/Nerlens Noel/C. Jefferson
Brandan Wright/Timofey Mozgov/A. Nicholson

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #100 on: January 05, 2014, 02:52:56 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8716
  • Tommy Points: 1125
Quote
You can land a good player at eight or you can land a good player at eighteen.  I think history has shown that the draft is nowhere near as exact a science as those rooting for ping pong balls would like it to be. 

If you go back and look at every draft from the last 30 years, this is true in the letter but not in implication, at least the implication I got from what you said.

True: You can land a player at pick 8 or pick 18
False: you have about as good a chance of landing a good player at 8 as you do at 18

There is actually a pretty big discrepancy between the odds of landing a good play at 8 compared with landing a good player at 18. That's a tangential argument, Id be pretty annoyed if we suffered through a rebuilding year and only got an 8th overall, but it's a commonly made, 'well player x was picked at 18, and that just proves there is still talent at 18', because while it's true, it doesn't acknowledge there is a much better chance of getting a dud there as well. The counterpoint to this is 'Kwame Brown was a first overall, how did that turn out?', and it's no less of a false equivalency.

I mean people always bring up Rondo and Big Al.  Technically Rondo wasn't even our draft pick... they were giving picks away for free that year.  We bought Rondo after the Suns drafted him.   

Pretty sure Boston has never drafted a superstar with a pick 15 and above.  They have drafted superstars in the Top 8, though.  ;)

You look over our list of guys taken 15 and over and you'll see names like Lucas Nogueira, Sullinger, Fab Melo, Marshon Brooks, Avery Bradley, JR Giddens, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Joe Forte, Acie Earl.  Sure there's some good players and good role players there, but lots of garbage too.

Boston's picks in the top 8 since 1970:

Dave Cowens, Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Len Bias, Antoine Walker, Chauncey Billups, Ron Mercer, Randy Foye, Jeff Green

Sure there's some duds in there too, but I like our track record.  Hah.

My point is that a vast majority of bona fide superstars are taken in the top five.  Once you get outside the top five, it is very rare that you get a "franchise type superstar."  Larry Bird, for example, is the only sixth pick taken since 1970 who makes Elrod Enchilada's much discussed list of superstars.

The seventh pick has yielded two lower level superstars, Bernard King and Chris Mullin, over that time period.

Robert Parish is the only one selected eighth.

Ninth did fairly well with Nowitzki, McGrady, and Stoudemire all selected there.

Tenth has two stars named Paul, Pierce and George. There have been no stars picked eleventh.

Dr. J. was picked 12th.

Bryant and Karl Malone were both selected thirteenth.

Clyde Drexler and Tim Hardaway at 14.

Nash, Stockton, Shawn Kemp,  Joe Dumars, and Tiny Archibald were taken in the late teens from fifteen to nineteen.

Twentieth is Gus Williams, twenty-first, Rondo.

None taken at twenty-two.  Alex English at twenty-three.

The 24th, 25th, and 26th picks have yielded no Enchilada superstars since 1970.

Rodman was taken 27th, Tony Parker 28th, and Dennis Johnson 29th.  Spencer Haywood was taken 30th, and the Ice Man, George Gervin was taken 40th.

Finally, there's Ben Wallace, who went undrafted.

By my count, 38 of Enchilada's superstars drafted since 1970 were taken in the top five.  28 were taken outside of the top five.  Of the 28 superstars taken outside the top five, fourteen were selected at spots 6 through 14, the lower lottery.  The other fourteen were taken outside the lottery. 

Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

I guess my overall point here is that if you are really rooting for tanking, you should be rooting for a bottom five record and a top five pick.  There's no point in tanking for a mid-lottery pick. 

Rejoicing in the possibility of a pick somewhere in the 6 to 12 range seems pointless.  If that's where we are going to end up, I'd rather see the team maximize their win potential and hope for some good talent in the draft, regardless of where in the first round we end up picking. 

And, by the way, I'm still not rooting for a bottom five finish.  I simply don't think I can bear to see this team lose enough games to get that low, considering the competition for worst.  And, despite this rough West coast trip coming up, I just don't think we'll end up with enough losses to be in the bottom five.

I'm rooting for wins every time out.  I'm strong enough to deal with the losses.
I realize that by bringing up that stuff (our track record with picks), I was being hypocritical.  Bottom line is it's a lot of history that has nothing to do with the 2014 draft. 

If the experts say this draft is 8 players deep... we're best served drafting in the Top 8.  Nuff said.

Nuff said, nothing.  If you have managed to convince yourself that there are 8 superduperstars in this year's draft, then congratulations.  Whatever helps you sleep at night. 
Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers  DKC General Manager

Dennis Schroeder/Ray McCallum
Tyreke Evans/Jeremy Lamb/R. Ledo
Giannis Antetokounpo/Darrell Arthur/V. Claver
Kelly Olynyk/Nerlens Noel/C. Jefferson
Brandan Wright/Timofey Mozgov/A. Nicholson

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #101 on: January 05, 2014, 02:53:09 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

  • Global Moderator
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 39045
  • Tommy Points: 1971
  • You ain't the boss of the freakin' bedclothes.
I found a few things before I started burning away my Sunday.

This one seems the most in line with the question being raised (what is the value of a pick by number?)

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

This one is a little harder to read but is more raw:

http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/22/ranking-thirty-years-of-draft-picks/


DKC Portland Trailblazers Team Card
Questions about the DKC? Ask here: LINK
Free Agency Tracker: Link

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #102 on: January 05, 2014, 02:57:31 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8716
  • Tommy Points: 1125
Quote
Of course, there have been a lot of very good to great players who aren't on Enchilada's list of superstars.  Often times, these very good players are selected outside the lottery.  Some have been taken later in the lottery. 

Alright. Alright fine. FINE!!!!

I'll go through the drafts of the last 20 years. Sonofabiscuit. Only cuz I have an obsessive need to be right that frustrates myself and those around me. BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THAT.

I shall...return.
Pretty sure someone did an extensive study in a thread a month or two ago that basically proved your chances of landing a star in the Top 6 was dramatically higher than landing a star later in the draft.  There are rare exceptions that people love to bring up (Rondo at 21), but generally if you're goal is to land an impact player through the draft, you're obviously better off picking with a Top pick.   There's countless guys picked 15-30 who were horrible.

And again... none of this is all that relevant.  What matters is the 2014 draft.  If experts say this draft is 8 players deep, I want a Top 8 pick.  In 2007 they said it was a 2 player draft... I wanted a Top 2 pick.   This year, there's a lot more options.  Sounds like Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid, Smart and Exum are the consensus top picks in some order... and by the end of March we might be throwing a couple more names into the fire.

The drooling over this draft by experts scares some fans who fear a League-changing draft that might not involve their team... so it's caused some backlash where fans say "no way it's that good... they are all overrated".  We're seeing a post about that once a week with someone who has watched 2 college games and thinks they are an expert now.

That was me, and it's top five, not top six.  The sixth pick has actually historically yielded surprisingly mediocre results compared to many of the picks later in the draft.

I'm all for this draft being "historically good."  I guess nothing's impossible, so eight superstars could happen, but based on history, it just seems highly, highly unlikely, even if it is a draft that rivals--even surpasses--the likes of '84, '96, and '03.
Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers  DKC General Manager

Dennis Schroeder/Ray McCallum
Tyreke Evans/Jeremy Lamb/R. Ledo
Giannis Antetokounpo/Darrell Arthur/V. Claver
Kelly Olynyk/Nerlens Noel/C. Jefferson
Brandan Wright/Timofey Mozgov/A. Nicholson

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #103 on: January 05, 2014, 03:12:27 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

  • Global Moderator
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 39045
  • Tommy Points: 1971
  • You ain't the boss of the freakin' bedclothes.
That was me, and it's top five, not top six.  The sixth pick has actually historically yielded surprisingly mediocre results compared to many of the picks later in the draft.

The sixth pick is worse than the top 5 but better than most of the picks after it (predictably) but the dropoff from 5 to 6 is worth remembering.

Basically if you want more than 50% chance of a star, you need a top 5 pick.

If you want at-worst a solid player, you're best off taking 12 or higher, but you've got a decent chance of landing one in the picks 13-20 although there are some outliers (picks that for whatever reason are usually bad..like 11, 15, 12).

As always there are no guarantees, but I stand by my statement, if you want a good player, the earlier the pick the better. SCIENCE!

DKC Portland Trailblazers Team Card
Questions about the DKC? Ask here: LINK
Free Agency Tracker: Link

Re: Tankers Rejoice
« Reply #104 on: January 05, 2014, 03:21:42 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8716
  • Tommy Points: 1125
I found a few things before I started burning away my Sunday.

This one seems the most in line with the question being raised (what is the value of a pick by number?)

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

This one is a little harder to read but is more raw:

http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/22/ranking-thirty-years-of-draft-picks/

I did the same things as the guy from 82games.  My twenty year span was from 1991 to 2010.  Instead of taking averages, I simply added up the total winshares for each draft position over that time span. 

Here are my results:

Total Winshares   Draft Position

1,354.1                   1st
1,056.8                   5th
1,055.1                   3rd
1,030.8                   4th
987.8                      2nd
837.9                      9th
815.4                     10th
658.4                     13th
596.5                      7th
499.6                      8th
484.1                     24th
460.2                     15th
457.0                     21st
418.5                     17th
413.2                       6th
368.1                     11th
353.5                     23rd
343.6                     18th
334.2                     16th
320.4                     14th
315.5                     26th
296.9                     12th
293.3                     20th
258.6                     25th
246.2                     19th
203.3                     27th
203.1                     28th
202.2                     22nd

Note:  I stopped at the 28th pick.  Partially because for many of those years, there were only 28 first round picks, and partially because I simply ran out of gas. 

I realize that total Winshares is far from a perfect measurement of a given player's NBA contributions, but I like it better than the method used by 82games, because it seems to me that the averages of players taken early in the draft could very well be inflated by high draft picks playing for lousy teams getting big minutes early in their careers, and therefore putting up decent numbers.  While, on the other hand, ultimately better players, drafted later by better teams, aren't getting those kinds of minutes from the start, but ultimately end up having much better careers. 
Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers  DKC General Manager

Dennis Schroeder/Ray McCallum
Tyreke Evans/Jeremy Lamb/R. Ledo
Giannis Antetokounpo/Darrell Arthur/V. Claver
Kelly Olynyk/Nerlens Noel/C. Jefferson
Brandan Wright/Timofey Mozgov/A. Nicholson

 

Hello! Guest

Welcome to the CelticsBlog Forums.

Welcome to CelticsBlog