Which draft spots have yielded the best players?

[Celtics18]

I set about trying to find the answer to this question.  So, I went to BasketballReference and did a little research.

I looked at the win share totals for all players selected at given spots in the 20 drafts between 1991 and 2010.  I then added up the total win shares for each draft spot from 1 to 28 to see which spots have yielded the most successful players over that time period.

Here are the results, listed in order of most successful draft spot to least from picks 1 to 28:

Rank           Draft position         total win shares

1                       1st                                  1,354.1

2                       5th                                  1,056.8

3                       3rd                                  1,055.1

4                       4th                                  1,030.8

5                       2nd                                    987.8

6                       9th                                     837.9

7                      10th                                   815.4

8                      13th                                   658.4

9                       7th                                     596.5

10                   14th                                   523.8

11                     8th                                     499.6

12                   24th                                   484.1

13                   15th                                   460.2

14                   21st                                   457.0

15                   17th                                  418.5

16                     6th                                    413.2

17                   11th                                  368.1

18                   23rd                                  353.5

19                   18th                                   343.6

20                   16th                                   334.2

21                   26th                                  315.5

22                   12th                                  296.9

23                   20th                                  293.3

24                   25th                                  258.6

25                   19th                                  246.2

26                   27th                                   203.3

27                   28th                                  203,1

28                   22nd                                  202.1

[pokeKingCurtis]

Here's a relevant compilation of misc. stats for the past 30 years of drafts.

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1htd3x/nba_draft_history_the_first_30_picks_of_the_last/

Going 2nd is surprisingly bad.

Edit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1htd3x/nba_draft_history_the_first_30_picks_of_the_last/caxpuyc

Here's one with more details, though no objective stats, just more misc. stats.

[lightspeed5]

i feel like 4-6 is a sweet spot, then pick 60 usually has an interesting story

[the_Bird]

i feel like 4-6 is a sweet spot, then pick 60 usually has an interesting story

Except that, interestingly, #6 has only been sixteenth-best!

It's an inherently small sample size, so a couple of "lucky" picks (Pierce at #10) are going to skew the data, and a couple notable busts at #2 are going to do the same.  You still obviously want to have the highest pick possible, but it just shows that it's not always a guarantee that #4 is going to be better than #8....  but it's a gamble, so of course.

The only thing I wonder with a pick like #5 or #6; is that maybe when you see teams start to gamble a little more?  Like, there's usually 3-4 no-brainer selections, but by the time you get to the middle of the lottery...   you've got a high enough pick where you WANT to come away with an impact player, but at that point it's more feast-or-famine guys?  Like, if you're picking at #15, you're OK with just getting a rotation guy, so you're content with taking a lower risk guy - but getting a rotation player at #5 or #6 (i.e. Jeff Green) is considered a miss so you're more apt to take a chance?

[nickagneta]

Why win shares? Why not PER or advanced +/-, or simple ratings, or ORTG/DRTG differential or an aggregate of PER36 stats or whatever?

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances. Yes, being voted onto these teams and getting to the Finals is a bit subjective but I think the amount of times a position in the draft would appear in these stats makes the overall way of viewing the impact the position had relative to their teams extremely relevant.

I will say, TP for the excellent thought process and collection of stats. The win share data does confirm some things I thought, which was, picking first and third was awesome and that way too many teams reached at #2. Also, I felt there was a couple of positions in the teens that yielded top ten results which I interpret as, if you have good scouting, drafting at 13-17 is really not all that much different than drafting at 7-10. Of course the main caveat there is you have zero shot at turning a 13-17 position into a top 3 position prior to the draft whereas 7-10 does have a slight chance of upgrading to a top three position.

[pokeKingCurtis]

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances.

The links I posted above have All NBA and All Star appearances. As well as years in the league as well as "busts" determined by a 5 year cutoff in experience. Unfortunately, no All defense I think (and no finals appearance, at least I think not).

The stuff above is summarized in the graphs below:
http://i.imgur.com/jsXSlmz.png

Credit goes to the guy who did all this, of course.

[nickagneta]

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances.

The links I posted above have All NBA and All Star appearances. As well as years in the league as well as "busts" determined by a 5 year cutoff in experience. Unfortunately, no All defense I think (and no finals appearance, at least I think not).

The stuff above is summarized in the graphs below:
http://i.imgur.com/jsXSlmz.png

Credit goes to the guy who did all this, of course.

TP...that's some good stuff but I wish whoever did that put together a comprehensive report detailing the value of each position relative to the others rather than just color coding and leaving it up to the viewer to determine

[Cman]

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances.

The links I posted above have All NBA and All Star appearances. As well as years in the league as well as "busts" determined by a 5 year cutoff in experience. Unfortunately, no All defense I think (and no finals appearance, at least I think not).

The stuff above is summarized in the graphs below:
http://i.imgur.com/jsXSlmz.png

Credit goes to the guy who did all this, of course.

Very cool graphs.
Sweet spot looks to be 1-5. Interesting that 2, 3, 4, 5 are all pretty similar.

[More Banners]

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances.

The links I posted above have All NBA and All Star appearances. As well as years in the league as well as "busts" determined by a 5 year cutoff in experience. Unfortunately, no All defense I think (and no finals appearance, at least I think not).

The stuff above is summarized in the graphs below:
http://i.imgur.com/jsXSlmz.png

Credit goes to the guy who did all this, of course.

Very cool graphs.
Sweet spot looks to be 1-5. Interesting that 2, 3, 4, 5 are all pretty similar.

What I noticed too: 

Tier 1:  1st overall pick
Tier 2: #2-5
Tier 3: #6-7
Tier 4: Steadily declining from there

Or something close to that without running the numbers.

One take might be that outside of a top 5-7 pick, a team/GM might as well forget about draft standings or standing still through the season/until the draft.

The competition for the bottom is among the bottom 7 or so teams?

[LarBrd33]

This backs it up... Top 5 pick or bust.


The lucky 5 teams who end up drafting in the top 5 this year will probably land franchise players.  They still have to put a team around the guy, of course.   But this year with how lopsidded the conferences are, we're going to see 5 western conference teams in the lotto with better records than some Eastern Conference teams that make the playoffs.

Right now for instance... Golden State, Minnesota, Lakers, Pelicans have a shot to add a franchise player via the lotto... and those teams are pretty solid as-is. 

Heaven help us if the Pelicans land a superstar.   They already have Anthony Davis... well on his way to being a franchise superstar in his own right.   They currently have the 11th best odds.  The ping pong balls need to end up in the Top 3, though... because the pick is sent to Philly if it falls out of the top 5.   

[hwangjini_1]

Why win shares? Why not PER or advanced +/-, or simple ratings, or ORTG/DRTG differential or an aggregate of PER36 stats or whatever?

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances. Yes, being voted onto these teams and getting to the Finals is a bit subjective but I think the amount of times a position in the draft would appear in these stats makes the overall way of viewing the impact the position had relative to their teams extremely relevant.

I will say, TP for the excellent thought process and collection of stats. The win share data does confirm some things I thought, which was, picking first and third was awesome and that way too many teams reached at #2. Also, I felt there was a couple of positions in the teens that yielded top ten results which I interpret as, if you have good scouting, drafting at 13-17 is really not all that much different than drafting at 7-10. Of course the main caveat there is you have zero shot at turning a 13-17 position into a top 3 position prior to the draft whereas 7-10 does have a slight chance of upgrading to a top three position.

beat me to it nk. yep, it also shows that there is good talent even into the late teens in normal drafts. given this upcoming draft depth danny stands a very good chance of reeling in a pair of decent players.

oh, and of course a tp to celtics18 for great work.

[hwangjini_1]

One stat I would like to see that might be as relevant as the one you chose is the sum of All-NBA teams, All-Defense team, All-Star teams and Finals appearances.

The links I posted above have All NBA and All Star appearances. As well as years in the league as well as "busts" determined by a 5 year cutoff in experience. Unfortunately, no All defense I think (and no finals appearance, at least I think not).

The stuff above is summarized in the graphs below:
http://i.imgur.com/jsXSlmz.png

Credit goes to the guy who did all this, of course.

Very cool graphs.
Sweet spot looks to be 1-5. Interesting that 2, 3, 4, 5 are all pretty similar.

What I noticed too: 

Tier 1:  1st overall pick
Tier 2: #2-5
Tier 3: #6-7
Tier 4: Steadily declining from there

Or something close to that without running the numbers.

One take might be that outside of a top 5-7 pick, a team/GM might as well forget about draft standings or standing still through the season/until the draft.

The competition for the bottom is among the bottom 7 or so teams?

maybe i am missing something, but looked more a case after the top 5, then numbers 9, 10, 13, & 14 out performed expectations.

i was also pleased to see the early 20s out performed expectations as well. while each draft is unique and there is no certainty, historically ainge has been better than most GMs at picking in that range.

[BballTim]

This backs it up... Top 5 pick or bust.


The lucky 5 teams who end up drafting in the top 5 this year will probably land franchise players.  They still have to put a team around the guy, of course.   But this year with how lopsidded the conferences are, we're going to see 5 western conference teams in the lotto with better records than some Eastern Conference teams that make the playoffs.

Right now for instance... Golden State, Minnesota, Lakers, Pelicans have a shot to add a franchise player via the lotto... and those teams are pretty solid as-is. 

Heaven help us if the Pelicans land a superstar.   They already have Anthony Davis... well on his way to being a franchise superstar in his own right.   They currently have the 11th best odds.  The ping pong balls need to end up in the Top 3, though... because the pick is sent to Philly if it falls out of the top 5.

  What's 11th best odds? Under or over 1%?