I do think that some people underestimate Bradley's value because they can't get past his (lack of) height.
I think his record shows that if you don't make him play point guard, he's a guy who is very likely to be named first or second team All-Defensive and could score 14-15 ppg with 40% shooting on threes.
If you believed Bradley is likely to play at that level over the next four years with some potential to be better, how much is he worth? How much more would you be willing to give him if he had the same numbers but was three inches taller?
i said already that as of today i would go as high as 4/29. if he was 3 inches taller i would up that to 4/29.5 or maybe 4/30
Ok, now I'm curious as to the actual barrier between 4/29 and 4/29.5
Is it based on anything to do with the luxury tax ceiling, or is it just a comfort level thing (AB is worth ~7.25 but not ~7.37 a year?)
just a comfort level. i actually changed my mind on what i would pay him thought as i had thought the mid level was worth more.
the non tax payer mid level for next off season is $5.150 million(i thought it was up over 6) for up to 4 years. it can have raises up to 4.5% of the first years(i had assumed it was 4.5% of year 1, then of year 2 and so on) salary.
so the most a team can offer him (unless there more then $5.150 million under the cap) is 4 years and a total of $21,295,250 for ~$5.33 million per year.
lets assume the cap goes up from $58.679 million to $62 million next year to be on the safe side. for the sake of this post im going to consider player options as being used by the player unless the option is clearly below market value. im also going to not count non guaranteed contracts, but i am going to count qualifying offers on restricted free agents.
Philly, Toronto, Utah, Cleavland, Detroit, Lakers, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Washington and Dallas can all hypothetically be far enough under the cap to offer Avery $6 million
Milwaukee if they dont make a qualifying offer on Udoh can also be far enough under. however there draft pick probably will push them to close to the cap, depending how high it is and how much the cap actual goes up.
i figure the teams that could realistically be under the cap and who would also be interested in Bradly are Toronto, Detroit, Phoenix, and Dallas.
im stating to think he was stupid to turn down 4/24. very few teams will be able to offer him even that much. granted a sign and trade opens things up but since hes a restricted free agent we have no incentive to do that unless we feel were getting a(imo far)superior deal
You've got the MLE numbers for this year. Next year the first-year is $5.305 million, and over four years is $22,652,350. If that's his rock bottom floor of a contract (and I think it is), and his ceiling for a contract is probably Aaron Afflalo, ($37.5 mil over 5 years), then he was certainly right to turn down $24 mil over 4 years. And as a restricted free agent, Danny was probably right to not offer much more, because he knows Bradley's ceiling on an offer too, and can always match it if he wants.
I could very easily see Atlanta offering in the $7-8 million range. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas and Phoenix also make similar offers. I could also see no one offering Bradley a contract because they didn't want their cap space held for a few days during the offseason while the Celtics debated matching it. But I don't think Bradley or his agent were crazy not to go for $24 mil/4 years. The way AB has played since being moved to SG, that offer isn't going away.