Avery Bradley rejected a four-year extension, worth 24 mil

[Sketch5]

6 Mill is pretty nice for a undersized SG that hasn't been healthy for a full season. I love Bradley, and he's been playing really well, but he's not a cornerstone, he's a complementary player. At least right now.

Also with the new CBA, Rondo's contract coming I could see DA not wanting to just pay guys what ever. The thing is with the new CBA your going to see a lot of GM's not over paying guys like they've done in the past. So while 8 Mill a  year is the norm for a guy like Bradley now, 6 will mist likely be the norm with in a few years.

I know DA really talks highly of AB, so it kinda makes you wonder also if the slightly under the norm payday is because of a future possible move.
 

$8 mill is the norm for a guy like Bradley now?  I am not sure there is a norm.  He is a pretty unique player IMO.

I think Bradley is a 5-6 million a year player, and I think that is what he will end up getting when he eventually signs.  Players just don't sign for market value, if they are giving up the chance to hit free agency, which is why it didn't happen this past summer.

Im not sure why you're arguing my statement. I said he should be around 66 mill, but if you look around the league there are players not as good or slightly better getting between 7 and 8.

I'm arguing with it, because I disagree with it.  I don't think $8 million is the norm for players similar to him. 

He has a pretty unique skillset, but IMO his closest comparables would be guys like Sefolosha or Tony Allen, and both of them are actually making less than the MLE.  Both of them also are more versatile defenders, so in theory may be more valuable, although I think you can pay a little bit of a premium for the remaining potential that Bradley brings to the table. 

Now, if you are just saying that there are some overpaid guys in the league, then I won't argue with you.  But I don't think the overall market value of defensive oriented guards is anywhere close to $8 million per year. 

Who are you thinking of that are similar and make about $8 million?

Stucky,Lin,Butler,Teauge,Mayo,Jennings,Ariza, just to name a few that are SG/SF making 7 to 8 a year. AB has shown flashes of scoring like any one else on the list, and plays better D then any of them.

I'm not saying what so ever he should get their money, some of them shouldn't be getting their money. Your right he should be in the Tony Allen 5 to 6 a year range, a bit hire because he can shoot better.

So you can see why him or his agent would push the 8 mill mark, because they are going to speculation that he will be as good as anyone making that kind of money. Were realistically he should be around 6 a year.

[More Banners]

While we still don't have a #1 or 2 guy, I don't spend above the MLE on anybody.  This is the time to control the money until it's time to spend.

Trade him to a contender, perhaps with Wallace, to clear the decks.  Whatever.

There's no reason we can't let Lee get extended run rather than gum up the cap.

[Mr October]

While we still don't have a #1 or 2 guy, I don't spend above the MLE on anybody.  This is the time to control the money until it's time to spend.

Trade him to a contender, perhaps with Wallace, to clear the decks.  Whatever.

There's no reason we can't let Lee get extended run rather than gum up the cap.

Yeah, I agree for the most part. You just don't want to end up being so stubborn with this rule that you get stuck in a loosing team mentality for years or even a decade.

This thought does really make me hesitate on going above 24/4 for Bradley though. The celtics need to keep cap room to swing trades for disgruntled stars or picks, or free agent deals for stars.

If the team gets bogged down with middle class contracts (between the MLE and max), i think they will just get stuck in middle class land, winning 35-45 games per year with no room for improvement.

[Chris]

6 Mill is pretty nice for a undersized SG that hasn't been healthy for a full season. I love Bradley, and he's been playing really well, but he's not a cornerstone, he's a complementary player. At least right now.

Also with the new CBA, Rondo's contract coming I could see DA not wanting to just pay guys what ever. The thing is with the new CBA your going to see a lot of GM's not over paying guys like they've done in the past. So while 8 Mill a  year is the norm for a guy like Bradley now, 6 will mist likely be the norm with in a few years.

I know DA really talks highly of AB, so it kinda makes you wonder also if the slightly under the norm payday is because of a future possible move.
 

$8 mill is the norm for a guy like Bradley now?  I am not sure there is a norm.  He is a pretty unique player IMO.

I think Bradley is a 5-6 million a year player, and I think that is what he will end up getting when he eventually signs.  Players just don't sign for market value, if they are giving up the chance to hit free agency, which is why it didn't happen this past summer.

Im not sure why you're arguing my statement. I said he should be around 66 mill, but if you look around the league there are players not as good or slightly better getting between 7 and 8.

I'm arguing with it, because I disagree with it.  I don't think $8 million is the norm for players similar to him. 

He has a pretty unique skillset, but IMO his closest comparables would be guys like Sefolosha or Tony Allen, and both of them are actually making less than the MLE.  Both of them also are more versatile defenders, so in theory may be more valuable, although I think you can pay a little bit of a premium for the remaining potential that Bradley brings to the table. 

Now, if you are just saying that there are some overpaid guys in the league, then I won't argue with you.  But I don't think the overall market value of defensive oriented guards is anywhere close to $8 million per year. 

Who are you thinking of that are similar and make about $8 million?

Stucky,Lin,Butler,Teauge,Mayo,Jennings,Ariza, just to name a few that are SG/SF making 7 to 8 a year. AB has shown flashes of scoring like any one else on the list, and plays better D then any of them.

I'm not saying what so ever he should get their money, some of them shouldn't be getting their money. Your right he should be in the Tony Allen 5 to 6 a year range, a bit hire because he can shoot better.

So you can see why him or his agent would push the 8 mill mark, because they are going to speculation that he will be as good as anyone making that kind of money. Were realistically he should be around 6 a year.

OK, here is where the disconnect is.  To me, all of those guys showed significantly more than Bradley has before they got their contract and/or were better fits for their position.

Just to go through them one by one (because I am bored):

Butler was one of the best 2-way SFs in the game a few years ago.  He was a guy who was coveted by a lot of teams.  He became overpaid because he got old.  Not really a good comparison IMO.

Jennings is one of the better scoring PGs in the league, and has shown the potential to be an All-star caliber player.  Bradley isn't in his league.

Teague - see Jennings, although I think Jennings has more potential.  Last year Teague averaged 15 and 7, and has been a primary offensive option for a decent team for a couple years.

Mayo got overpaid after a good contract year, but even then, he still has been a much more productive player than Bradley.

Stuckey was a consistent two-way player who has been Detriots primary perimeter threat for a number of years. 

Lin - OK, you got me there, they overpaid a guy because they thought he could sell tickets. 

Ariza - now we're talking.  I think Ariza is the closest thing to Bradley on this list.  He is a strong defender who is limited offensively.  But the fact that he is a 6'7" (or maybe bigger) SF makes a big difference.  Bradley is at a major disadvantage being a 6'2" SG. 

The overall point though, is that while perimeter players do get paid $8 million a year, even if they are not All-stars, DEFENSIVE perimeter players are very rarely given that kind of contract.  The guys you listed in my opinion are not comparables to Bradley.  Most of them are versatile offensive players, who were paid because of their ability to score.  In general, that is what gets perimeter players paid, putting the ball in the hoop.

Guys whose greatest strength is defense just don't get paid big money, unless they are big men.  Tony Allen, James Posey, Mikael Pietrus, Thabo Sefolosha, Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier, Raja Bell.  Most of these guys maxed out at MLE money.  And most of them would actually be seen as MORE valuable than Bradley, because they were all able to cover bigger wings, which tends to be the most common position for elite scorers in the NBA.

[317]

I do think that some people underestimate Bradley's value because they can't get past his (lack of) height.

I think his record shows that if you don't make him play point guard, he's a guy who is very likely to be named first or second team All-Defensive and could score 14-15 ppg with 40% shooting on threes.

If you believed Bradley is likely to play at that level over the next four years with some potential to be better, how much is he worth?  How much more would you be willing to give him if he had the same numbers but was three inches taller?

i said already that as of today i would go as high as 4/29. if he was 3 inches taller i would up that to 4/29.5 or maybe 4/30

Ok, now I'm curious as to the actual barrier between 4/29 and 4/29.5

Is it based on anything to do with the luxury tax ceiling, or is it just a comfort level thing (AB is worth ~7.25 but not ~7.37 a year?)

just a comfort level. i actually changed my mind on what i would pay him thought as i had thought the mid level was worth more.

the non tax payer mid level for next off season is $5.150 million(i thought it was up over 6) for up to 4 years. it can have raises up to 4.5% of the first years(i had assumed it was 4.5% of year 1, then of year 2 and so on) salary.

so the most a team can offer him (unless there more then $5.150 million under the cap) is 4 years and a total of $21,295,250 for ~$5.33 million per year.

lets assume the cap goes up from $58.679 million to $62 million next year to be on the safe side. for the sake of this post im going to consider player options as being used by the player unless the option is clearly below market value. im also going to not count non guaranteed contracts, but i am going to count qualifying offers on restricted free agents.

Philly, Toronto, Utah, Cleavland, Detroit, Lakers, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Washington and Dallas can all hypothetically be far enough under the cap to offer Avery $6 million

Milwaukee if they dont make a qualifying offer on Udoh can also be far enough under. however there draft pick probably will push them to close to the cap, depending how high it is and how much the cap actual goes up.

i figure the teams that could realistically be under the cap and who would also be interested in Bradly are Toronto, Detroit, Phoenix, and Dallas.

im stating to think he was stupid to turn down 4/24. very few teams will be able to offer him even that much. granted a sign and trade opens things up but since hes a restricted free agent we have no incentive to do that unless we feel were getting a(imo far)superior deal

[Fafnir]

He didn't turn down 4/24. He turned down 3/18 with team option. Big difference in having 3 years locked in and four years.

[nickagneta]

He didn't turn down 4/24. He turned down 3/18 with team option. Big difference in having 3 years locked in and four years.

That sounds more like it...is there a link?

[BudweiserCeltic]

He didn't turn down 4/24. He turned down 3/18 with team option. Big difference in having 3 years locked in and four years.

That sounds more like it...is there a link?

It's the information that the OP posted and everyone has based this thread on.

[D.o.s.]

I do think that some people underestimate Bradley's value because they can't get past his (lack of) height.

I think his record shows that if you don't make him play point guard, he's a guy who is very likely to be named first or second team All-Defensive and could score 14-15 ppg with 40% shooting on threes.

If you believed Bradley is likely to play at that level over the next four years with some potential to be better, how much is he worth?  How much more would you be willing to give him if he had the same numbers but was three inches taller?

i said already that as of today i would go as high as 4/29. if he was 3 inches taller i would up that to 4/29.5 or maybe 4/30

Ok, now I'm curious as to the actual barrier between 4/29 and 4/29.5

Is it based on anything to do with the luxury tax ceiling, or is it just a comfort level thing (AB is worth ~7.25 but not ~7.37 a year?)

just a comfort level. i actually changed my mind on what i would pay him thought as i had thought the mid level was worth more.

the non tax payer mid level for next off season is $5.150 million(i thought it was up over 6) for up to 4 years. it can have raises up to 4.5% of the first years(i had assumed it was 4.5% of year 1, then of year 2 and so on) salary.

so the most a team can offer him (unless there more then $5.150 million under the cap) is 4 years and a total of $21,295,250 for ~$5.33 million per year.

lets assume the cap goes up from $58.679 million to $62 million next year to be on the safe side. for the sake of this post im going to consider player options as being used by the player unless the option is clearly below market value. im also going to not count non guaranteed contracts, but i am going to count qualifying offers on restricted free agents.

Philly, Toronto, Utah, Cleavland, Detroit, Lakers, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Washington and Dallas can all hypothetically be far enough under the cap to offer Avery $6 million

Milwaukee if they dont make a qualifying offer on Udoh can also be far enough under. however there draft pick probably will push them to close to the cap, depending how high it is and how much the cap actual goes up.

i figure the teams that could realistically be under the cap and who would also be interested in Bradly are Toronto, Detroit, Phoenix, and Dallas.

im stating to think he was stupid to turn down 4/24. very few teams will be able to offer him even that much. granted a sign and trade opens things up but since hes a restricted free agent we have no incentive to do that unless we feel were getting a(imo far)superior deal

Yeah, I think you're right--even at 3/18 with a player option seems like it's about as good of a deal as he's going to get. And based on your list of potential teams (I think Detroit might be the strongest suitor, based on how their rookie SG pans out), I don't really see him leaving for greener pastures.

[PhoSita]

I'd say that the deal Ainge offered him represents the maximum amount I'd want to invest in him.

Bradley is a nice enough player, but he's a role player.  Unless Ainge thinks this team is just a piece or two away from a contender, it makes very little sense to invest a lot of money into a role player like Bradley.  Chances are, the team will just end up viewing him as a middling sort of piece who they'd prefer to move in a deal for an expiring and a pick, similar to the situation this year with Bass and Lee.

Isn't Bradley rather comparative to Bass, actually?  He's a great individual defender and a solid team defender, he's undersized for his position, and he gets by offensively with one or two pretty good skills (in Bass's case, it's one elite skill) and by having above average athleticism. 

Similar to Bass, I think Bradley is a guy who can be an okay starter in the absence of a more well-rounded player, but in an ideal situation he's a bench guy.

[317]

so i asked a good friend of mine who pays very close attention to NBA rosters and contracts what he thought about Bradly and his free agency. he said he thinks Bradly may end up in the same situation Gerald Henderson found himself in last year. Gerald rejected a similar extension only to end up with no better offers in free agency.he ended up signing for less then the extension he had previously declined.

[timpiker]

this is why he's been chucking so much more this year

[jambr380]

this is why he's been chucking so much more this year

He is actually considerably more efficient this year than last. His fg% is up from 40% to almost 45% and his 3p% is up from 32% to 40%. His 1.3 apg is something you may want to be concerned about, but the reason he is shooting more this year is because KG/PP/JT are gone, not because he is just 'chucking'.

That being said, I agree with those that think he should be maxed out at 4/24; however, we do need to clear Lee off the books if we do this extension.

[TripleOT]

Those $8m a year long term deals usually are bad for the team, but great for the player.   AB is a very good defender, but it takes him 12.7 shots a game to score 13.2 points.  Since he never gets to the line, I don't see him ever being a very efficient scorer, since his game is based on the least valued shot in today's game, the mid-range 2 pointer. 

AB has no off the dribble game at all, and even if his three point shooting continues to improve, his inability to create offense and his size for a SG will never make him anything more than a solid role player.  The four year, $24m deal was the right number. By not taking it, Ab might have forced Ainge to
perk him out of town.   

[LooseCannon]

Chris Mannix ‏@ChrisMannixSI 2h

Avery Bradley playing his way into a nice new contract. Several execs peg him in four-year, $30 million range.