Author Topic: Shoot first Point Guards  (Read 20967 times)

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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #60 on: November 26, 2013, 08:35:34 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.
I've been saying that for years on this board.  PG is the least successful position, even just based on all star appearances of the last 25 years or so, even among teams in the Finals (not just winners but losers as well).

I've hypothesized that.  First, the PG does the most work on both ends of the floor.  Thus, because they work harder they tire more quickly and thus are much less effective down the stretch, which is why you don't want that guy being your main scorer or best player.  Second, because they are so much smaller, they take a lot more damage proportionally than any other position.  That damage equates to lost time and inefficiency when playing.  They are just much more prone to getting hurt and therefore you can't rely on them to play 80+ games and be fully healthy for the playoffs when you need them.

Both of these, as well as some other minor things, lead to the conclusion that you should never build around a PG.  It is just too difficult and the results bear that out (Magic was a physical specimen like no other and Isiah was surrounded by HOFers and thus they are more the exception than the rule).   


All of this ignores the simple fact that the rules have changed.  You're using a sample size that is too large because it doesn't account for those changes.

The production at the point guard position, if not the actual talent, has exploded in recent years because of those changes.
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #61 on: November 26, 2013, 08:39:06 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.
I've been saying that for years on this board.  PG is the least successful position, even just based on all star appearances of the last 25 years or so, even among teams in the Finals (not just winners but losers as well).

I've hypothesized that.  First, the PG does the most work on both ends of the floor.  Thus, because they work harder they tire more quickly and thus are much less effective down the stretch, which is why you don't want that guy being your main scorer or best player.  Second, because they are so much smaller, they take a lot more damage proportionally than any other position.  That damage equates to lost time and inefficiency when playing.  They are just much more prone to getting hurt and therefore you can't rely on them to play 80+ games and be fully healthy for the playoffs when you need them.

Both of these, as well as some other minor things, lead to the conclusion that you should never build around a PG.  It is just too difficult and the results bear that out (Magic was a physical specimen like no other and Isiah was surrounded by HOFers and thus they are more the exception than the rule).   


All of this ignores the simple fact that the rules have changed.  You're using a sample size that is too large because it doesn't account for those changes.

The production at the point guard position, if not the actual talent, has exploded in recent years because of those changes.


Name the last few starting PGs that won a title.  How many of them were stars when they won?



Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #62 on: November 26, 2013, 09:02:56 AM »

Offline BballTim

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You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.
I've been saying that for years on this board.  PG is the least successful position, even just based on all star appearances of the last 25 years or so, even among teams in the Finals (not just winners but losers as well).

I've hypothesized that.  First, the PG does the most work on both ends of the floor.  Thus, because they work harder they tire more quickly and thus are much less effective down the stretch, which is why you don't want that guy being your main scorer or best player.  Second, because they are so much smaller, they take a lot more damage proportionally than any other position.  That damage equates to lost time and inefficiency when playing.  They are just much more prone to getting hurt and therefore you can't rely on them to play 80+ games and be fully healthy for the playoffs when you need them.

Both of these, as well as some other minor things, lead to the conclusion that you should never build around a PG.  It is just too difficult and the results bear that out (Magic was a physical specimen like no other and Isiah was surrounded by HOFers and thus they are more the exception than the rule).   


All of this ignores the simple fact that the rules have changed.  You're using a sample size that is too large because it doesn't account for those changes.

The production at the point guard position, if not the actual talent, has exploded in recent years because of those changes.


Name the last few starting PGs that won a title.  How many of them were stars when they won?

  From 1987 to 1998 we saw 10 of 12 teams win titles with guards being their best players, and you could argue the only reason it wasn't 12 out of 12 was because MJ was out of the league for a while. Did that mean that it was useless to build your team around non-guards? Did Shaq and Duncan taking over the league suddenly make players under 6-10 irrelevant? There are only a couple of superstars in their primes in the league at any one time and they drastically skew any conclusions you come to about the makeup of title teams.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #63 on: November 26, 2013, 09:14:55 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Name the last few starting PGs that won a title.  How many of them were stars when they won?

Tony Parker and the Spurs came awfully, awfully close this past season.  Close enough that it doesn't make sense to say that it wasn't a "championship caliber" team; it basically came down to a coin flip. Yes, Tim Duncan was a huge part of that effort.  But Tony Parker, arguably, was the most productive and best overall offensive player on that team.


You're right that in recent years the point guards winning titles have been far from spectacular.  But with the growing number of highly productive players at the position, I think it's only a matter of time.  My point is that it doesn't make sense to use the last 25-30 years as evidence that point guard driven teams can't win it all because you can't compare the league 15-20+ years ago to the league now.
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #64 on: November 26, 2013, 09:30:02 AM »

Offline ssspence

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    I think Chris Paul will be an interesting proof point for this discussion. Historically, he's swimming against the tide. But:

    • He's their franchise player, the best PG in the NBA and he's getting well up the lists of best PGs ever
    • He's their second leading scorer
    • He's an excellent two-way player, and a game-changer on each end
    • He's playing for a championship coach
    • He has a talented supporting cast, including pure scorers, shooters, and one of the best frontcourts in the league that doesn't include the team's respective franchise player

    I don't see the Clips as a championship team, but I guess my point is: if Paul can't do it under these conditions, who can?
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #65 on: November 26, 2013, 09:33:39 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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    I think Chris Paul will be an interesting proof point for this discussion. Historically, he's swimming against the tide. But:

    • He's their franchise player, the best PG in the NBA and he's getting well up the lists of best PGs ever
    • He's their second leading scorer
    • He's an excellent two-way player, and a game-changer on each end
    • He's playing for a championship coach/li]
      • He has a talented supporting cast, including pure scorers, shooters, and one of the best frontcourts in the league that doesn't include the team's respective franchise player

      I don't see the Clips as a championship team, but I guess my point is: if Paul can't do it under these conditions, who can?

I think Paul can.  (though I do not like his C)



I think a team built around a PG can win.  It is just looks like the hardest player on the court to build a winner around.



They couldn't build a title winner around Stockton, Kidd, Payton, Tim Hardaway, Nash, AI...


Not since Isaih Thomas.[/list]

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #66 on: November 26, 2013, 09:41:10 AM »

Offline ssspence

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    I think Chris Paul will be an interesting proof point for this discussion. Historically, he's swimming against the tide. But:

    • He's their franchise player, the best PG in the NBA and he's getting well up the lists of best PGs ever
    • He's their second leading scorer
    • He's an excellent two-way player, and a game-changer on each end
    • He's playing for a championship coach/li]
      • He has a talented supporting cast, including pure scorers, shooters, and one of the best frontcourts in the league that doesn't include the team's respective franchise player

      I don't see the Clips as a championship team, but I guess my point is: if Paul can't do it under these conditions, who can?

I think Paul can.  (though I do not like his C)



I think a team built around a PG can win.  It is just looks like the hardest player on the court to build a winner around.



They couldn't build a title winner around Stockton, Kidd, Payton, Tim Hardaway, Nash, AI...


Not since Isaih Thomas.[/list]

Historically, if you want to win built around a PG, you need "supporting" HOFers. Magic played with 4, Isaih played with 3. There might be 1 on the Clips, and he's got a very long way to go before he gets there.
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #67 on: November 26, 2013, 09:52:34 AM »

Online Moranis

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You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.
I've been saying that for years on this board.  PG is the least successful position, even just based on all star appearances of the last 25 years or so, even among teams in the Finals (not just winners but losers as well).

I've hypothesized that.  First, the PG does the most work on both ends of the floor.  Thus, because they work harder they tire more quickly and thus are much less effective down the stretch, which is why you don't want that guy being your main scorer or best player.  Second, because they are so much smaller, they take a lot more damage proportionally than any other position.  That damage equates to lost time and inefficiency when playing.  They are just much more prone to getting hurt and therefore you can't rely on them to play 80+ games and be fully healthy for the playoffs when you need them.

Both of these, as well as some other minor things, lead to the conclusion that you should never build around a PG.  It is just too difficult and the results bear that out (Magic was a physical specimen like no other and Isiah was surrounded by HOFers and thus they are more the exception than the rule).   

  The results don't bear that out at all. You're looking at all the teams in the finals and marking down which positions the better players play and deciding that the positions that you see the most of is the most valuable. That would make sense if you accounted for the impact transcendent players had on the teams getting to the finals, but you don't.

  For instance, did Pippen enjoy more playoff success than Isiah because he's a SF and not a PG or because his teammate was Jordan? The answer's fairly obvious, but it's exactly the opposite of what your study claims. All you're figuring out is that the players who have the most success are the teammates of superstars.

  What you should look at is the makeup of teams that get to the finals (or conference finals if you need more teams) that *don't* have Bird/Magic/MJ/Shaq/TD/Isiah/Kobe/LeBron. If most of those teams generally have weak point guards then you'll have a point. I don't think you'll find that to be true, though. What you said about the shortcomings of having a pg being one of your best players is probably somewhat true but the benefit of having one of your best players control the ball the most and run the offense is greater than you think.
Well the most recent championship team on that list, had an ancient Jason Kidd as its starting PG who was at best the 4th best player on his team.  Before that you had the Celtics with a 2nd year PG that was at best the 4th best player on the team.  Before that the Pistons and while Billups won the Finals MVP, he was the 3rd or 4th best player on that team throughout the regular season (at least after the wallace trade). 

Now if you look at the finals losers.  2 years ago you had OKC with Westbrook as the 2nd best player (though some might argue that it was Harden, though Harden was awful in the finals).  2010 you had Boston, Rondo was much better than when Boston won (and was an all star) but still the 4th best player on that team.  2009 you had the Magic with Rafer Alston.  2002 and 2003 you had the Nets with Kidd very much in his prime.  2001 you had the Sixers with Snow (though you could argue Iverson as well). 2000 you had the Pacers with Mark Jackson well past his prime (probably 5th or 6th best player on that team).  1999 you had the Knicks with Charlie Ward.


In other words, PG's don't mean a whole heck of a lot even on the teams without the transcendent players.
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #68 on: November 26, 2013, 09:57:32 AM »

Offline ssspence

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Moranis, you're going to be told that Rondo was not the 4th best player on that team, with no regard for the fact that 3 veteran HOFers were brought together that year to win a championship, and Rondo was fortunate enough to land in an ideal situation for talented young passer & defender. Wait for it....
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #69 on: November 26, 2013, 10:22:31 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson did not lead their teams in scoring or hog the ball nearly as much.

I'm not sure if this was pointed out, but Isiah led the Pistons in scoring in their second championship season, and was only 0.2 points behind leading scorer Adrian Dantley during their first title season.

Magic was the Lakers' leading scorer in the 1987 title season.

Bob Cousy (the ultimate "pass first" point guard) led the Celtics in scoring multiple times.

There's nothing wrong with having a point guard who is also a really good scorer.  That point guard just needs to make sure that his teammates are equally involved in the offense.


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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #70 on: November 26, 2013, 10:36:16 AM »

Online Moranis

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Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson did not lead their teams in scoring or hog the ball nearly as much.

I'm not sure if this was pointed out, but Isiah led the Pistons in scoring in their second championship season, and was only 0.2 points behind leading scorer Adrian Dantley during their first title season.

Magic was the Lakers' leading scorer in the 1987 title season.

Bob Cousy (the ultimate "pass first" point guard) led the Celtics in scoring multiple times.

There's nothing wrong with having a point guard who is also a really good scorer.  That point guard just needs to make sure that his teammates are equally involved in the offense.
I consider a shoot first PG to be one in which he scores more points than assists x2.  So Russell Wesbrook at 19.9 points with 6.9 assists for his career is one while Magic Johnson and his 19.5 points with 11.2 assists for his career is not one.  Similar points scored, but much different assists which paints a different picture.  Some PG's, like Rondo, go to the extreme the other way i.e. they don't score enough to truly maximize their overall potential.  You just need to find the right balance.  Chris Paul is the guy that has found the right mix and consistently does so.  That is why he is by far the best PG in the league at the moment.
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Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #71 on: November 26, 2013, 10:39:05 AM »

Offline BballTim

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You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.
I've been saying that for years on this board.  PG is the least successful position, even just based on all star appearances of the last 25 years or so, even among teams in the Finals (not just winners but losers as well).

I've hypothesized that.  First, the PG does the most work on both ends of the floor.  Thus, because they work harder they tire more quickly and thus are much less effective down the stretch, which is why you don't want that guy being your main scorer or best player.  Second, because they are so much smaller, they take a lot more damage proportionally than any other position.  That damage equates to lost time and inefficiency when playing.  They are just much more prone to getting hurt and therefore you can't rely on them to play 80+ games and be fully healthy for the playoffs when you need them.

Both of these, as well as some other minor things, lead to the conclusion that you should never build around a PG.  It is just too difficult and the results bear that out (Magic was a physical specimen like no other and Isiah was surrounded by HOFers and thus they are more the exception than the rule).   

  The results don't bear that out at all. You're looking at all the teams in the finals and marking down which positions the better players play and deciding that the positions that you see the most of is the most valuable. That would make sense if you accounted for the impact transcendent players had on the teams getting to the finals, but you don't.

  For instance, did Pippen enjoy more playoff success than Isiah because he's a SF and not a PG or because his teammate was Jordan? The answer's fairly obvious, but it's exactly the opposite of what your study claims. All you're figuring out is that the players who have the most success are the teammates of superstars.

  What you should look at is the makeup of teams that get to the finals (or conference finals if you need more teams) that *don't* have Bird/Magic/MJ/Shaq/TD/Isiah/Kobe/LeBron. If most of those teams generally have weak point guards then you'll have a point. I don't think you'll find that to be true, though. What you said about the shortcomings of having a pg being one of your best players is probably somewhat true but the benefit of having one of your best players control the ball the most and run the offense is greater than you think.
Well the most recent championship team on that list, had an ancient Jason Kidd as its starting PG who was at best the 4th best player on his team.  Before that you had the Celtics with a 2nd year PG that was at best the 4th best player on the team.  Before that the Pistons and while Billups won the Finals MVP, he was the 3rd or 4th best player on that team throughout the regular season (at least after the wallace trade). 

Now if you look at the finals losers.  2 years ago you had OKC with Westbrook as the 2nd best player (though some might argue that it was Harden, though Harden was awful in the finals).  2010 you had Boston, Rondo was much better than when Boston won (and was an all star) but still the 4th best player on that team.  2009 you had the Magic with Rafer Alston.  2002 and 2003 you had the Nets with Kidd very much in his prime.  2001 you had the Sixers with Snow (though you could argue Iverson as well). 2000 you had the Pacers with Mark Jackson well past his prime (probably 5th or 6th best player on that team).  1999 you had the Knicks with Charlie Ward.


In other words, PG's don't mean a whole heck of a lot even on the teams without the transcendent players.

  Billups was the best player on that Pistons team, at least in the playoffs. Same with Rondo in 2010. If you're looking at players that are at worst arguably the best or 2nd best player on those teams you had Billups on the winner and Rondo, Billups, Westbrook, Kidd (twice) and AI, a 6-1 guard who was the primary ballhandler on his team. That's 6-7 players, I doubt that the other 4 positions will *all* yield more.

  And, just out of curiosity, did you notice how convenient it was that you cut off your search when the next 3 years would yield Payton and Stockton (twice)? Add in those three and (by my count) you'd have 9-10 point guards that were at least arguably best or 2nd best on the last 16 teams that went to the finals since 1996. You'll have a hard time beating that with the other positions.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #72 on: November 26, 2013, 10:47:22 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Moranis, you're going to be told that Rondo was not the 4th best player on that team, with no regard for the fact that 3 veteran HOFers were brought together that year to win a championship, and Rondo was fortunate enough to land in an ideal situation for talented young passer & defender. Wait for it....

  Rondo was the 4th best player on the 2008 title team. In 2010 KG was far from healthy. Look at the stats for the 4 players in the playoffs:

PP: 19/6/3
RA: 16/3/3
KG: 15/7/3
RR: 16/6/9

  Considering that Rondo (iirc) had the best +/- of the four as well, it's probably easier to make a case he was the best and not the worst. Also, his play dropped somewhat after the middle of the Magic series when he picked up an injury, before that all of the numbers were skewed more  in his direction (he was probably something like 17/7/11).

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #73 on: November 26, 2013, 11:21:39 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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Moranis, you're going to be told that Rondo was not the 4th best player on that team, with no regard for the fact that 3 veteran HOFers were brought together that year to win a championship, and Rondo was fortunate enough to land in an ideal situation for talented young passer & defender. Wait for it....

  Rondo was the 4th best player on the 2008 title team. In 2010 KG was far from healthy. Look at the stats for the 4 players in the playoffs:

PP: 19/6/3
RA: 16/3/3
KG: 15/7/3
RR: 16/6/9

  Considering that Rondo (iirc) had the best +/- of the four as well, it's probably easier to make a case he was the best and not the worst. Also, his play dropped somewhat after the middle of the Magic series when he picked up an injury, before that all of the numbers were skewed more  in his direction (he was probably something like 17/7/11).


And they didn't win that year.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #74 on: November 26, 2013, 11:38:12 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Moranis, you're going to be told that Rondo was not the 4th best player on that team, with no regard for the fact that 3 veteran HOFers were brought together that year to win a championship, and Rondo was fortunate enough to land in an ideal situation for talented young passer & defender. Wait for it....

  Rondo was the 4th best player on the 2008 title team. In 2010 KG was far from healthy. Look at the stats for the 4 players in the playoffs:

PP: 19/6/3
RA: 16/3/3
KG: 15/7/3
RR: 16/6/9

  Considering that Rondo (iirc) had the best +/- of the four as well, it's probably easier to make a case he was the best and not the worst. Also, his play dropped somewhat after the middle of the Magic series when he picked up an injury, before that all of the numbers were skewed more  in his direction (he was probably something like 17/7/11).


And they didn't win that year.

  That's true. Rondo picked up a leg injury during the Magic series. Up until that point they had dispatched the best team in the league (with the best player in the league) and were in the process of sweeping the Magic. After that they weren't the same team.