Author Topic: Shoot first Point Guards  (Read 20959 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2013, 04:34:56 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4468
  • Tommy Points: 346
Noteworthy doesn't necessarily mean more than average. And I don't really agree about Westbrook, I don't think that it's generally a good thing when a fairly inefficient scorer leads your team in fga.
Generally it isn't. But the way I see it, Westbrook is inefficient so that everyone else, including Durant, doesn't have to be.

  That must be how he sees it as well.
Westbrook isn't even all that inefficient, even his chucking of 3s is roughly around break even line. He definitely plays ugly though.
Westbrook's career eFG% .452, which pretty much puts him right next to Brandon Jennings. Not the best association.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #31 on: November 25, 2013, 04:45:32 PM »

Offline Fafnir

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30859
  • Tommy Points: 1327
Noteworthy doesn't necessarily mean more than average. And I don't really agree about Westbrook, I don't think that it's generally a good thing when a fairly inefficient scorer leads your team in fga.
Generally it isn't. But the way I see it, Westbrook is inefficient so that everyone else, including Durant, doesn't have to be.

  That must be how he sees it as well.
Westbrook isn't even all that inefficient, even his chucking of 3s is roughly around break even line. He definitely plays ugly though.
Westbrook's career eFG% .452, which pretty much puts him right next to Brandon Jennings. Not the best association.
eFG% isn't a great measure of efficiency as scorer instead of a shooter it ignore turnovers and free throws. Westbrook gets to the line a lot and given his usage is pretty good at avoiding turnovers given his usage.

He's a pretty efficient scorer, just not a shooter and that's okay. His dribble penetration makes the Thunder go offensively as much as Durant does.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2013, 05:32:32 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2013, 05:38:01 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

History doesn't account for a whole lot moving forward, though.

Especially when all the potential superstars/up-and-coming players seem to be point guards and wings.

I agree with you, though, that you wouldn't necessarily pick a pass first PG as the initial building block for a championship team.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #34 on: November 25, 2013, 06:12:31 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • In The Rafters
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34023
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • Basketball is Newtonian Physics
You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.

  Since the early 80s there's been a fairly small number of players who have been the best player on the bulk of the title teams. Position-wise, the distribution is pretty even. There aren't really any positions that are inherently easier to build title teams around than others because the best way to build a title team is to get a superstar, not a player at a certain position.


I am talking best player on the team.



It is the easiest with a big man as the best player on the team.  (The Dream, Shaq, Duncan, KG, Gasol, Dirk)

Then a swing man that was the best player in the league (Jordan, Kobe and Lebron)

  I'm talking about the best player on the team as well. In what way is it easier to build around Shaq or Duncan or Hakeem than it was around Magic? How much easier was it to build around KG or Dirk than Isiah? And whichever Gasol you're talking about was only the best player on his team in Memphis.


Magic is a PF sized PG.


And he had Kareem.




So outside of Thomas, who else do we have?  Where was the title for Payton, Kidd, Stockton, Nash, Kevin Johnson, Paul, Deron Williams...




Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #35 on: November 25, 2013, 06:14:29 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • In The Rafters
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34023
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • Basketball is Newtonian Physics
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

History doesn't account for a whole lot moving forward, though.

Especially when all the potential superstars/up-and-coming players seem to be point guards and wings.

I agree with you, though, that you wouldn't necessarily pick a pass first PG as the initial building block for a championship team.


Why? 


There will be another great big man.  It is more likely one of them will emerge then another Lebron.  (heck, Lebron is the size of a PF already and plays a good amount of his time there)

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #36 on: November 25, 2013, 06:47:08 PM »

Offline mmmmm

  • NCE
  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5308
  • Tommy Points: 862
Noteworthy doesn't necessarily mean more than average. And I don't really agree about Westbrook, I don't think that it's generally a good thing when a fairly inefficient scorer leads your team in fga.
Generally it isn't. But the way I see it, Westbrook is inefficient so that everyone else, including Durant, doesn't have to be.

  That must be how he sees it as well.
Westbrook isn't even all that inefficient, even his chucking of 3s is roughly around break even line. He definitely plays ugly though.
Westbrook's career eFG% .452, which pretty much puts him right next to Brandon Jennings. Not the best association.
eFG% isn't a great measure of efficiency as scorer instead of a shooter it ignore turnovers and free throws. Westbrook gets to the line a lot and given his usage is pretty good at avoiding turnovers given his usage.

He's a pretty efficient scorer, just not a shooter and that's okay. His dribble penetration makes the Thunder go offensively as much as Durant does.

While I agree that eFG% by itself is not a perfect measure of efficiency, its is definitely an important one because inefficient shooting results in excess misses.  And around 70% of all misses are essentially turnovers.

By getting to the line and hitting the occasional 3PT shot, Westbrook generates about 1.23 points per shot.  That's decent, though it's not great by any means.  That rate has been fairly constant throughout his career.   Durant, of course, generates an astounding 1.5 points per shot.   Durant also misses far less often.  Durant should be taking more shots on that team.

In overall point creation, through assists and direct scoring, Westbrook is responsible for just a hair above 36 points per 36 minutes.  Again, he's been around that most of his career.   He misses about 10 shots per 36.

For comparisons (since I know y'all want 'em), Rondo also creates around 36 points per 36, though on fewer shots and more assists.   Chris Paul creates about 40 points per 36. 

Rondo's shooting results in about 5 misses per 36, while CP3 misses just over 7 shots per 36.

Through missed shots, Westbrook is putting the ball in the hands of the defense about 2 more times per 36 than Paul is, and about 3.5 more times per 36 than Rondo is.   

He also turns the ball over otherwise about once per 36 more than either of those guys.

That's essentially like having Rondo's point creation production ... but about 4.5 extra turnovers per game!!  Yikes!

The net-net of all that is that, Westbrook is a pretty decent point producer, but hurts his team more than Paul or Rondo do with his inefficient shooting (Paul has an eFG% typically just over .500 and Rondo is typically just under .500). 

And he doesn't create any more points than they do (despite having one of the greatest shooters in the game to dish to).

Good player.  But not up there, imho, with CP3 (clear #1) and Rondo.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #37 on: November 25, 2013, 07:00:42 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

History doesn't account for a whole lot moving forward, though.

Especially when all the potential superstars/up-and-coming players seem to be point guards and wings.

I agree with you, though, that you wouldn't necessarily pick a pass first PG as the initial building block for a championship team.


Why? 


There will be another great big man.  It is more likely one of them will emerge then another Lebron.  (heck, Lebron is the size of a PF already and plays a good amount of his time there)

Looking around the league landscape right now, a majority of the under-30 budding stars seem to be guards. So while there will be another great big man, I don't think he's on the horizon, while the odds of a PG-lead team ending up on top are much higher now than they've ever been (based on rule changes and the staggering depth at the point).

Noteworthy doesn't necessarily mean more than average. And I don't really agree about Westbrook, I don't think that it's generally a good thing when a fairly inefficient scorer leads your team in fga.
Generally it isn't. But the way I see it, Westbrook is inefficient so that everyone else, including Durant, doesn't have to be.

  That must be how he sees it as well.
Westbrook isn't even all that inefficient, even his chucking of 3s is roughly around break even line. He definitely plays ugly though.
Westbrook's career eFG% .452, which pretty much puts him right next to Brandon Jennings. Not the best association.
eFG% isn't a great measure of efficiency as scorer instead of a shooter it ignore turnovers and free throws. Westbrook gets to the line a lot and given his usage is pretty good at avoiding turnovers given his usage.

He's a pretty efficient scorer, just not a shooter and that's okay. His dribble penetration makes the Thunder go offensively as much as Durant does.

While I agree that eFG% by itself is not a perfect measure of efficiency, its is definitely an important one because inefficient shooting results in excess misses.  And around 70% of all misses are essentially turnovers.

By getting to the line and hitting the occasional 3PT shot, Westbrook generates about 1.23 points per shot.  That's decent, though it's not great by any means.  That rate has been fairly constant throughout his career.   Durant, of course, generates an astounding 1.5 points per shot.   Durant also misses far less often.  Durant should be taking more shots on that team.


If you want to play the questionable conclusions game, it could be easily said that Durant misses less because of Westbrook's play. We saw that in the difference between his numbers during the 2011-12 playoffs and 2012-13: where he went from 57% eFG to a flat 50%, because he was forced to take more bad shots while the defense ignored the rest of his teammates.

Or, if you don't like advanced stats, he went from a .51/.37/.86 to a .45/.31/.83, while taking only 4 more shots a game (again, without Westbrook allegedly monopolizing Durant's shot attempts).
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #38 on: November 25, 2013, 07:03:21 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
You have to go back to the 80's to find teams winning titles with the best player being a PG. 


Parker, while a great PG, played with Duncan. 




It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.

  Since the early 80s there's been a fairly small number of players who have been the best player on the bulk of the title teams. Position-wise, the distribution is pretty even. There aren't really any positions that are inherently easier to build title teams around than others because the best way to build a title team is to get a superstar, not a player at a certain position.


I am talking best player on the team.



It is the easiest with a big man as the best player on the team.  (The Dream, Shaq, Duncan, KG, Gasol, Dirk)

Then a swing man that was the best player in the league (Jordan, Kobe and Lebron)

  I'm talking about the best player on the team as well. In what way is it easier to build around Shaq or Duncan or Hakeem than it was around Magic? How much easier was it to build around KG or Dirk than Isiah? And whichever Gasol you're talking about was only the best player on his team in Memphis.


Magic is a PF sized PG.


And he had Kareem.




So outside of Thomas, who else do we have?  Where was the title for Payton, Kidd, Stockton, Nash, Kevin Johnson, Paul, Deron Williams...

  Magic had Kareem, sure, but the list of players that won titles alone is basically empty. Claiming Magic doesn't count as a point guard is nonsense. And I'm sure that most of the people here could come up with a list of bigs who never won titles.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #39 on: November 25, 2013, 07:10:27 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11833
  • Tommy Points: 950
It is really hard to build a title contender around the smallest position on the court.

But not so impossible that it should never be attempted.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #40 on: November 25, 2013, 07:23:35 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

 If you look at the "modern" (Bird/Magic era forward) nba, there have been a small amount of players that led teams to multiple titles. Bird, Magic, Isiah, MJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, LeBron. For those keeping score, that's 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards, 2 small forwards, a power forward and 2 centers. If you look at the other 4 titles you'd have Moses, Dirk, KG and Billups. So`that's about as even a split as you can possibly have.  All 5 positions have accounted for between 5 and 8 titles over a 34 or so year period. There's no pattern. There's no dominant position. Only dominant players.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #41 on: November 25, 2013, 07:30:42 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • In The Rafters
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34023
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • Basketball is Newtonian Physics
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

 If you look at the "modern" (Bird/Magic era forward) nba, there have been a small amount of players that led teams to multiple titles. Bird, Magic, Isiah, MJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, LeBron. For those keeping score, that's 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards, 2 small forwards, a power forward and 2 centers. If you look at the other 4 titles you'd have Moses, Dirk, KG and Billups. So`that's about as even a split as you can possibly have.  All 5 positions have accounted for between 5 and 8 titles over a 34 or so year period. There's no pattern. There's no dominant position. Only dominant players.


Kobe won nothing without a big man.  (Gasol should have been the finals MVP after the job the Celtics defense did on him)



In fact, he missed the playoffs.


As for the rest, Bird played with Mchale and Parrish.  Magic had Kareem.  Hall of fame big men.  Top 50 NBA players of all time big men. 


And Detroit wins because of the addition of Wallace to Wallace.


Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #42 on: November 25, 2013, 07:54:57 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

 If you look at the "modern" (Bird/Magic era forward) nba, there have been a small amount of players that led teams to multiple titles. Bird, Magic, Isiah, MJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, LeBron. For those keeping score, that's 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards, 2 small forwards, a power forward and 2 centers. If you look at the other 4 titles you'd have Moses, Dirk, KG and Billups. So`that's about as even a split as you can possibly have.  All 5 positions have accounted for between 5 and 8 titles over a 34 or so year period. There's no pattern. There's no dominant position. Only dominant players.


Kobe won nothing without a big man.  (Gasol should have been the finals MVP after the job the Celtics defense did on him)



In fact, he missed the playoffs.


As for the rest, Bird played with Mchale and Parrish.  Magic had Kareem.  Hall of fame big men.  Top 50 NBA players of all time big men. 


And Detroit wins because of the addition of Wallace to Wallace.

  Bird also played with a HOF point guard. It's true that you need a top level big man to win a title. But start naming teams that didn't have top level players that weren't big. You might find a few, just like you'll find some MJ teams without those HOF big men.

  Also, one thing about those bigs that the stars couldn't win without. Players like Parrish, McHale, the Wallaces, Gasol, or Kareem in his 30s. Try and build a team with that big as your best player, your chances of winning a title would be slim at best.

Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #43 on: November 25, 2013, 08:30:14 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • In The Rafters
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34023
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • Basketball is Newtonian Physics
Big men and scorers win championships.   Great distributors are always secondary to big men and scoring.  There's been instances where the best player on a championship team was a PG (Isiah and Magic), but they were also elite scorers.  Magic always averaged 18+ and had a dominant big man/scorer by his side every championship.  Isiah was his team's top scorer on both title teams.

Historically if you had a choice of one position to build around, you'd pick a dominant C.  History shows you can build a contender with very little as long as you have a dominant big man.   

If you're building around an elite passer (like a Rondo), you're going to need several other all-star players on the same level.  If you have a choice, you don't build around a distributor.  Much more important to have a guy who can put the ball in a hoop... rather than having a guy who can pass to a guy who can put the ball in the hoop.

 If you look at the "modern" (Bird/Magic era forward) nba, there have been a small amount of players that led teams to multiple titles. Bird, Magic, Isiah, MJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, LeBron. For those keeping score, that's 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards, 2 small forwards, a power forward and 2 centers. If you look at the other 4 titles you'd have Moses, Dirk, KG and Billups. So`that's about as even a split as you can possibly have.  All 5 positions have accounted for between 5 and 8 titles over a 34 or so year period. There's no pattern. There's no dominant position. Only dominant players.


Kobe won nothing without a big man.  (Gasol should have been the finals MVP after the job the Celtics defense did on him)



In fact, he missed the playoffs.


As for the rest, Bird played with Mchale and Parrish.  Magic had Kareem.  Hall of fame big men.  Top 50 NBA players of all time big men. 


And Detroit wins because of the addition of Wallace to Wallace.

  Bird also played with a HOF point guard. It's true that you need a top level big man to win a title. But start naming teams that didn't have top level players that weren't big. You might find a few, just like you'll find some MJ teams without those HOF big men.

  Also, one thing about those bigs that the stars couldn't win without. Players like Parrish, McHale, the Wallaces, Gasol, or Kareem in his 30s. Try and build a team with that big as your best player, your chances of winning a title would be slim at best.


The only player on the list to win without someone else is the Dream.  Unless you think Mad Max was a great player. 



And of course there can be all-star PGs on title teams.  No one said they couldn't. 



The point is, title teams are not built around them.  They are built around the big men unless you can get Jordan or Lebron.   



Re: Shoot first Point Guards
« Reply #44 on: November 25, 2013, 08:34:00 PM »

Offline Surferdad

  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14480
  • Tommy Points: 976
  • "He fiddles...and diddles..."
M
« Last Edit: November 25, 2013, 08:47:08 PM by Surferdad »