Author Topic: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"  (Read 39483 times)

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Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #105 on: November 16, 2013, 12:30:54 AM »

Offline chambers

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I assume "top three" means drafted with one of the top three picks... which would eliminate Bird and Kobe on a fairly weak technicality.

...but not Darko!

Extremely weak in Bird's case.

Even then, that's still nothing close to "all but a couple cases."

Most modern title winners have drafted their best player, regardless of the games one wants to play with labeling and technicalities. It's that simple.

  None of Shaq's teams drafted their top player, neither did the Pistons, the Heat or the Celts. Technically the last 2 Lakers teams didn't either. When you say "most modern title teams", consider that 8-10 of the last 14 title teams didn't fall into that category.

Shaqs Orlando team made the finals. The Lakers drafted Kobe who was a franchise player. The Heat winning with Wade and Shaq drafted Wade. Paul Pierce in 2008 was arguably co MVP for our 2008 championship team. 19.5, 4.5 and 5 vs KG's 18.8,9.2 and 3.4 when you consider he had to guard Lebron and Kobe and won finals MVP.


Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)


Getting the picture?
You can delude the argument all you want because you don't like tanking, but unfortunately you need lottery picks to win NBA championships. I'm not saying all these teams tanked to get their picks. I'm just saying that without these players they drafted and built around- they probably don't win titles.

KG doesn't come to Boston without Pierce.
Lebron and Shaq don't come to Miami without Wade.
Shaq doesn't go to LA without Kobe.

They add the free agents after they establish they have a legitimate top 5 to 10 player- a franchise level scorer they can rely on when the time comes.

  And the Celtics currently have Rondo, who's shown he can be one of the top performers in the playoffs and lead teams to deep playoff runs, and we've heard many of the top players in the league saying they'd like to play with him. Problem solved.

Rondo is not a top 10 NBA player. Of the top 15 ranked NBA players, could you name one NBA team that would trade their top 15 player for Rondo? It would be very difficult to find a trade partner.

He's possibly the second wheel on a championship team like Wade is currently to Lebron, but he doesn't fall into the same category of guys on that list other than Kenyon Martin or Allan Houston- bench all stars.

Plain and simple fact is that he's not a scorer. Championship teams need those ya know.

"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #106 on: November 16, 2013, 05:04:39 AM »

Offline BballTim

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I assume "top three" means drafted with one of the top three picks... which would eliminate Bird and Kobe on a fairly weak technicality.

...but not Darko!

Extremely weak in Bird's case.

Even then, that's still nothing close to "all but a couple cases."

Most modern title winners have drafted their best player, regardless of the games one wants to play with labeling and technicalities. It's that simple.

  None of Shaq's teams drafted their top player, neither did the Pistons, the Heat or the Celts. Technically the last 2 Lakers teams didn't either. When you say "most modern title teams", consider that 8-10 of the last 14 title teams didn't fall into that category.

Shaqs Orlando team made the finals. The Lakers drafted Kobe who was a franchise player. The Heat winning with Wade and Shaq drafted Wade. Paul Pierce in 2008 was arguably co MVP for our 2008 championship team. 19.5, 4.5 and 5 vs KG's 18.8,9.2 and 3.4 when you consider he had to guard Lebron and Kobe and won finals MVP.


Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)


Getting the picture?
You can delude the argument all you want because you don't like tanking, but unfortunately you need lottery picks to win NBA championships. I'm not saying all these teams tanked to get their picks. I'm just saying that without these players they drafted and built around- they probably don't win titles.

KG doesn't come to Boston without Pierce.
Lebron and Shaq don't come to Miami without Wade.
Shaq doesn't go to LA without Kobe.

They add the free agents after they establish they have a legitimate top 5 to 10 player- a franchise level scorer they can rely on when the time comes.

  And the Celtics currently have Rondo, who's shown he can be one of the top performers in the playoffs and lead teams to deep playoff runs, and we've heard many of the top players in the league saying they'd like to play with him. Problem solved.

Rondo is not a top 10 NBA player. Of the top 15 ranked NBA players, could you name one NBA team that would trade their top 15 player for Rondo? It would be very difficult to find a trade partner.

He's possibly the second wheel on a championship team like Wade is currently to Lebron, but he doesn't fall into the same category of guys on that list other than Kenyon Martin or Allan Houston- bench all stars.

Plain and simple fact is that he's not a scorer. Championship teams need those ya know.

  Referring to Rondo as a "bench all-star" seems to be quite a slight in your mind (I suppose because you feel that players like PP are a level or two below people who get voted onto the teams) in spite of the fact that Rondo was, as someone else pointed out, a starter in his last all-star game. But despite that "shortcoming", nothing you said really refuted my point. Did you happen to catch the playoffs in 2010 (game 7 of the finals)? If so, which of Rondo's teammates do you think played like LeBron?

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #107 on: November 17, 2013, 10:06:00 AM »

Offline chambers

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I assume "top three" means drafted with one of the top three picks... which would eliminate Bird and Kobe on a fairly weak technicality.

...but not Darko!

Extremely weak in Bird's case.

Even then, that's still nothing close to "all but a couple cases."

Most modern title winners have drafted their best player, regardless of the games one wants to play with labeling and technicalities. It's that simple.

  None of Shaq's teams drafted their top player, neither did the Pistons, the Heat or the Celts. Technically the last 2 Lakers teams didn't either. When you say "most modern title teams", consider that 8-10 of the last 14 title teams didn't fall into that category.

Shaqs Orlando team made the finals. The Lakers drafted Kobe who was a franchise player. The Heat winning with Wade and Shaq drafted Wade. Paul Pierce in 2008 was arguably co MVP for our 2008 championship team. 19.5, 4.5 and 5 vs KG's 18.8,9.2 and 3.4 when you consider he had to guard Lebron and Kobe and won finals MVP.


Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)


Getting the picture?
You can delude the argument all you want because you don't like tanking, but unfortunately you need lottery picks to win NBA championships. I'm not saying all these teams tanked to get their picks. I'm just saying that without these players they drafted and built around- they probably don't win titles.

KG doesn't come to Boston without Pierce.
Lebron and Shaq don't come to Miami without Wade.
Shaq doesn't go to LA without Kobe.

They add the free agents after they establish they have a legitimate top 5 to 10 player- a franchise level scorer they can rely on when the time comes.

  And the Celtics currently have Rondo, who's shown he can be one of the top performers in the playoffs and lead teams to deep playoff runs, and we've heard many of the top players in the league saying they'd like to play with him. Problem solved.

Rondo is not a top 10 NBA player. Of the top 15 ranked NBA players, could you name one NBA team that would trade their top 15 player for Rondo? It would be very difficult to find a trade partner.

He's possibly the second wheel on a championship team like Wade is currently to Lebron, but he doesn't fall into the same category of guys on that list other than Kenyon Martin or Allan Houston- bench all stars.

Plain and simple fact is that he's not a scorer. Championship teams need those ya know.

  Referring to Rondo as a "bench all-star" seems to be quite a slight in your mind (I suppose because you feel that players like PP are a level or two below people who get voted onto the teams) in spite of the fact that Rondo was, as someone else pointed out, a starter in his last all-star game. But despite that "shortcoming", nothing you said really refuted my point. Did you happen to catch the playoffs in 2010 (game 7 of the finals)? If so, which of Rondo's teammates do you think played like LeBron?

Rondo started because Rose was injured- that doesn't make him starting All Star Material. All Stars are picked by fans and it's fair to say that Rondo is definitely the most entertaining player on the court in almost every game he plays.
Pierce plays the position that conveys the best basketball players and generally the most popular ones and to make the bench that many times is pretty unreal. I’d ask yourself how many All Star appearances Rondo makes without KG, Pierce and Ray around him- I think it's also fair to say there's a good chance that he won't get selected for a good few years until he's on a contender again.
That's the difference between Rondo and Chris Paul or a prime Steve Nash. They don't need guys around them to dominate- they can shoot, assist and control the game like Rondo without the leaks in their games.(Although I will mention Nash's defensive problems, even if they were generally overblown). Would Rondo make the All Star game if he were in Chris Paul's place in New Orleans? Or Nash's MVP and All Star place in Phoenix?
We’ll leave All Star appearances out of it then, because they’re really not important when looking at Rondo overall.
Talent wise, or results wise- he's averaged 12 points and 11 assists per game. He's shot less than 24% from 3 point land and 60% from the line over the last 3 seasons.
Yeah he's been great in some playoff series but he's also had Pierce and KG and Ray to pass to and finish.
Chris Paul has arguably never had anyone better than Blake Griffin to play with and has averaged 18.4 points and 9.6 assists in the last three seasons. In the playoffs he's averaged 20 points and 9.5 assists. His PER for the last three seasons is 26.86 and his playoff PER is over 27. His win shares per 48 minutes over the last three seasons are 28. Rondos are 11.8 wins per 48.
If you look at Steve Nash in his prime, his regular season numbers were actually very similar to Rondo's. The obvious difference that separates them as MVP material (like Chris Paul) is Nash's shooting. His superior shooting and free throws mean that his win shares in his MVP seasons were 20.3(2005) and 21.2(2006) with win shares of 23 and 22.
Nash's playoff stats are where you drop your jaw. His playoff AVERAGES were 24 points and 11 assists in 2005 with a PER of 23.4 in 2005 and 20 ppg and 11 with a PER of 21.3 in 2006.
Chris Paul has had some incredible numbers as well, the guys playoff PER over the last 3 seasons was 28 with his win shares at 20.7.
Why did Danny want Chris Paul so badly? As Danny Ainge stated when reflecting on the efforts to trade Rondo for CP3. ‘Chris Paul…well he's got the complete game.’
Rondo is VERY close, if not better at many aspects- but the shooting and lack of scoring on Rondo's behalf are the clear leaks that are preventing him from reaching Chris Paul's level. If he gets hot in a playoff series then yeah, he's on the Steve Nash/Chris Paul level- but he's not going to put up those numbers as much as CP3 is.
You've talked about Rondo's 2010 playoffs and his 2012 ECF run.
In 2010 he had that amazing 4th quarter in game 2 (among other highlights), and yeah he was great- but his averages for the series were 13.6 points,6.3 rebounds and 7.6 assists- nice numbers buts he's still got KG, Ray and Pierce all averaging at least 14 ppg around him.

Two memorable performances ?
1)
Let’s look at CP3's series against the Lakers in 2011 in his last run as a New Orleans Hornet.
22 pgg, 11.5 assists, 6.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals on a PER of 29 and true shooting percentage of 67% with an efficiency rating of 60 %!!! His Turnover percentage was 18%.
2) Rondo's 2012 ECF games were brilliant, 20.9 ppg, 11.3 assists and 6.3 rebounds with 1.9 steals per game with true shooting at 53 % and efficiency at 50%. Rondo's turnover rate was 25%.

Of course PER and Win shares don't mean everything but they tell a story of how much a particular player contributes to the overall success of their team- It's why  Danny picked all our rookies this season- they were all at the top of win shares for their position in the NCAA.
In the last three seasons during the playoffs Rondo's averaged 15 points and 10 assists. I mean they're great numbers but they're not franchise worthy. My point is that Rondo is not as good as Chris Paul or Steve Nash.
Which leads me to my most important point. The fact is that neither Nash nor Chris Paul are good enough to lead a team to the NBA finals- but they are/were both better players than Rondo. (at least up to this point in Rondo’s career)
 
Put Rondo on the Hornets and CP3 on the Celtics? Does he get that many assists without the elite players around him? Does Chris Paul get more points and more assists? The numbers say he definitely does because his usage is far more efficient- whether it be his shooting usage or his overall usage when on the floor.
In today’s modern NBA game, point guards are not the players to lead you to a championship. The last one that did it was Isiah
(I think?). Iverson tried hard- but he was a scoring guard. Rose might get close- but again he’s a scorer, not a ‘point’/facilitator guard.
What you’re also leaving out is Rondo’s regular season numbers which are hurting his team’s playoff position and home court advantage/seeding.
2012 NBA regular season? (his last full season)
Rajon Rondo 2011-12 regular season: 12 points, 11 assists and 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 3.6 turnovers per game.
PER of 17.5 and a win share of 12.1 games.


Compared to Chris Paul in the same year?

Chris Paul 2011-12 regular season: 19.8 ppg, 9.1 assists, 3.6 Rebounds, 2.4 steals, 2.1 turnovers.
PER of 27 with a win share of 27.8 games.


The triple doubles and 20 assist games are great- but the NBA and championships are built by consistency.
Consistency in effort, consistency in shooting, consistency in effectiveness and efficiency are just not there for Rondo.

CP3 might be good enough as the second fiddle on a championship team- we’re not sure yet. Plenty of basketball experts would say that Russell Westbrook is a better point guard/player than Rondo, and we know that they aren't winning anything in OKC unless Durant gets more help than Westbrook.

Anyway, Rondo is a fair way behind CP3 and I doubt he’ll ever reach CP3’s greatness.
With one season after this one remaining on his contract- perhaps it’s easy to see why some of us would prefer to trade him for a draft pick before he is potentially exposed- exposed in the sense that he doesn't have All Star team mates now. Sure he could blossom, but his pathetic shooting from range and pathetic free throw shooting aren't showing enough consistent improvement to make me see the light in such a prediction.

He's coming back from a serious injury. He's got one more year on his contract after this season. He's lost his All Star team mates and now more than ever is the chance he'll be exposed as a one dimensional player that NEEDS shooters around him.

Trade him for a nice pick or asset or watch him walk away in frustration to free agency for the bright lights of New York or any other contending team with the elite team mates he’s used to playing with his whole career.

Kid's freakin awesome, but unfortunately we are stuck between a rock and a hard place with his contract and the unknown dimension of any decent players around him.
He is not a top 10 player. He's not a top 15 player. He's an amazingly good point guard who's probably top 5 in the league at his position. Problem is he can't shoot and probably won't ever be able to shoot.

I guess the good outcome could be that without good players around him, his value plummets and no one else is willing to pay him the big $$$ as a free agent, leaving us to scoop him up for another bargain contract. I feel there are just too many teams in the NBA that would over pay him for his jersey sales/marketing appeal alone.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #108 on: November 17, 2013, 11:48:00 AM »

Offline BballTim

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I assume "top three" means drafted with one of the top three picks... which would eliminate Bird and Kobe on a fairly weak technicality.

...but not Darko!

Extremely weak in Bird's case.

Even then, that's still nothing close to "all but a couple cases."

Most modern title winners have drafted their best player, regardless of the games one wants to play with labeling and technicalities. It's that simple.

  None of Shaq's teams drafted their top player, neither did the Pistons, the Heat or the Celts. Technically the last 2 Lakers teams didn't either. When you say "most modern title teams", consider that 8-10 of the last 14 title teams didn't fall into that category.

Shaqs Orlando team made the finals. The Lakers drafted Kobe who was a franchise player. The Heat winning with Wade and Shaq drafted Wade. Paul Pierce in 2008 was arguably co MVP for our 2008 championship team. 19.5, 4.5 and 5 vs KG's 18.8,9.2 and 3.4 when you consider he had to guard Lebron and Kobe and won finals MVP.


Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)


Getting the picture?
You can delude the argument all you want because you don't like tanking, but unfortunately you need lottery picks to win NBA championships. I'm not saying all these teams tanked to get their picks. I'm just saying that without these players they drafted and built around- they probably don't win titles.

KG doesn't come to Boston without Pierce.
Lebron and Shaq don't come to Miami without Wade.
Shaq doesn't go to LA without Kobe.

They add the free agents after they establish they have a legitimate top 5 to 10 player- a franchise level scorer they can rely on when the time comes.

  And the Celtics currently have Rondo, who's shown he can be one of the top performers in the playoffs and lead teams to deep playoff runs, and we've heard many of the top players in the league saying they'd like to play with him. Problem solved.

Rondo is not a top 10 NBA player. Of the top 15 ranked NBA players, could you name one NBA team that would trade their top 15 player for Rondo? It would be very difficult to find a trade partner.

He's possibly the second wheel on a championship team like Wade is currently to Lebron, but he doesn't fall into the same category of guys on that list other than Kenyon Martin or Allan Houston- bench all stars.

Plain and simple fact is that he's not a scorer. Championship teams need those ya know.

  Referring to Rondo as a "bench all-star" seems to be quite a slight in your mind (I suppose because you feel that players like PP are a level or two below people who get voted onto the teams) in spite of the fact that Rondo was, as someone else pointed out, a starter in his last all-star game. But despite that "shortcoming", nothing you said really refuted my point. Did you happen to catch the playoffs in 2010 (game 7 of the finals)? If so, which of Rondo's teammates do you think played like LeBron?

Rondo started because Rose was injured- that doesn't make him starting All Star Material. All Stars are picked by fans and it's fair to say that Rondo is definitely the most entertaining player on the court in almost every game he plays.
Pierce plays the position that conveys the best basketball players and generally the most popular ones and to make the bench that many times is pretty unreal. I’d ask yourself how many All Star appearances Rondo makes without KG, Pierce and Ray around him- I think it's also fair to say there's a good chance that he won't get selected for a good few years until he's on a contender again.
That's the difference between Rondo and Chris Paul or a prime Steve Nash. They don't need guys around them to dominate- they can shoot, assist and control the game like Rondo without the leaks in their games.(Although I will mention Nash's defensive problems, even if they were generally overblown). Would Rondo make the All Star game if he were in Chris Paul's place in New Orleans? Or Nash's MVP and All Star place in Phoenix?
We’ll leave All Star appearances out of it then, because they’re really not important when looking at Rondo overall.
Talent wise, or results wise- he's averaged 12 points and 11 assists per game. He's shot less than 24% from 3 point land and 60% from the line over the last 3 seasons.
Yeah he's been great in some playoff series but he's also had Pierce and KG and Ray to pass to and finish.
Chris Paul has arguably never had anyone better than Blake Griffin to play with and has averaged 18.4 points and 9.6 assists in the last three seasons. In the playoffs he's averaged 20 points and 9.5 assists. His PER for the last three seasons is 26.86 and his playoff PER is over 27. His win shares per 48 minutes over the last three seasons are 28. Rondos are 11.8 wins per 48.
If you look at Steve Nash in his prime, his regular season numbers were actually very similar to Rondo's. The obvious difference that separates them as MVP material (like Chris Paul) is Nash's shooting. His superior shooting and free throws mean that his win shares in his MVP seasons were 20.3(2005) and 21.2(2006) with win shares of 23 and 22.
Nash's playoff stats are where you drop your jaw. His playoff AVERAGES were 24 points and 11 assists in 2005 with a PER of 23.4 in 2005 and 20 ppg and 11 with a PER of 21.3 in 2006.
Chris Paul has had some incredible numbers as well, the guys playoff PER over the last 3 seasons was 28 with his win shares at 20.7.
Why did Danny want Chris Paul so badly? As Danny Ainge stated when reflecting on the efforts to trade Rondo for CP3. ‘Chris Paul…well he's got the complete game.’
Rondo is VERY close, if not better at many aspects- but the shooting and lack of scoring on Rondo's behalf are the clear leaks that are preventing him from reaching Chris Paul's level. If he gets hot in a playoff series then yeah, he's on the Steve Nash/Chris Paul level- but he's not going to put up those numbers as much as CP3 is.
You've talked about Rondo's 2010 playoffs and his 2012 ECF run.
In 2010 he had that amazing 4th quarter in game 2 (among other highlights), and yeah he was great- but his averages for the series were 13.6 points,6.3 rebounds and 7.6 assists- nice numbers buts he's still got KG, Ray and Pierce all averaging at least 14 ppg around him.

Two memorable performances ?
1)
Let’s look at CP3's series against the Lakers in 2011 in his last run as a New Orleans Hornet.
22 pgg, 11.5 assists, 6.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals on a PER of 29 and true shooting percentage of 67% with an efficiency rating of 60 %!!! His Turnover percentage was 18%.
2) Rondo's 2012 ECF games were brilliant, 20.9 ppg, 11.3 assists and 6.3 rebounds with 1.9 steals per game with true shooting at 53 % and efficiency at 50%. Rondo's turnover rate was 25%.

Of course PER and Win shares don't mean everything but they tell a story of how much a particular player contributes to the overall success of their team- It's why  Danny picked all our rookies this season- they were all at the top of win shares for their position in the NCAA.
In the last three seasons during the playoffs Rondo's averaged 15 points and 10 assists. I mean they're great numbers but they're not franchise worthy. My point is that Rondo is not as good as Chris Paul or Steve Nash.
Which leads me to my most important point. The fact is that neither Nash nor Chris Paul are good enough to lead a team to the NBA finals- but they are/were both better players than Rondo. (at least up to this point in Rondo’s career)
 
Put Rondo on the Hornets and CP3 on the Celtics? Does he get that many assists without the elite players around him? Does Chris Paul get more points and more assists? The numbers say he definitely does because his usage is far more efficient- whether it be his shooting usage or his overall usage when on the floor.
In today’s modern NBA game, point guards are not the players to lead you to a championship. The last one that did it was Isiah
(I think?). Iverson tried hard- but he was a scoring guard. Rose might get close- but again he’s a scorer, not a ‘point’/facilitator guard.
What you’re also leaving out is Rondo’s regular season numbers which are hurting his team’s playoff position and home court advantage/seeding.
2012 NBA regular season? (his last full season)
Rajon Rondo 2011-12 regular season: 12 points, 11 assists and 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 3.6 turnovers per game.
PER of 17.5 and a win share of 12.1 games.


Compared to Chris Paul in the same year?

Chris Paul 2011-12 regular season: 19.8 ppg, 9.1 assists, 3.6 Rebounds, 2.4 steals, 2.1 turnovers.
PER of 27 with a win share of 27.8 games.


The triple doubles and 20 assist games are great- but the NBA and championships are built by consistency.
Consistency in effort, consistency in shooting, consistency in effectiveness and efficiency are just not there for Rondo.

CP3 might be good enough as the second fiddle on a championship team- we’re not sure yet. Plenty of basketball experts would say that Russell Westbrook is a better point guard/player than Rondo, and we know that they aren't winning anything in OKC unless Durant gets more help than Westbrook.

Anyway, Rondo is a fair way behind CP3 and I doubt he’ll ever reach CP3’s greatness.
With one season after this one remaining on his contract- perhaps it’s easy to see why some of us would prefer to trade him for a draft pick before he is potentially exposed- exposed in the sense that he doesn't have All Star team mates now. Sure he could blossom, but his pathetic shooting from range and pathetic free throw shooting aren't showing enough consistent improvement to make me see the light in such a prediction.

He's coming back from a serious injury. He's got one more year on his contract after this season. He's lost his All Star team mates and now more than ever is the chance he'll be exposed as a one dimensional player that NEEDS shooters around him.

Trade him for a nice pick or asset or watch him walk away in frustration to free agency for the bright lights of New York or any other contending team with the elite team mates he’s used to playing with his whole career.

Kid's freakin awesome, but unfortunately we are stuck between a rock and a hard place with his contract and the unknown dimension of any decent players around him.
He is not a top 10 player. He's not a top 15 player. He's an amazingly good point guard who's probably top 5 in the league at his position. Problem is he can't shoot and probably won't ever be able to shoot.

I guess the good outcome could be that without good players around him, his value plummets and no one else is willing to pay him the big $$$ as a free agent, leaving us to scoop him up for another bargain contract. I feel there are just too many teams in the NBA that would over pay him for his jersey sales/marketing appeal alone.

  That's quite a long post. A few points though:

  You talk about how Rondo's numbers would have gone down if he'd been on the Hornets and how Paul's would have gone up if he'd been on the Celts. You hear this a lot, but it's pretty unlikely. It's hard to find cases of top players who's numbers are worse when they're teamed with worse players and better when they're put on teams with stars. Case in point, Chris Paul. If you ignore his first two years in the league, he had more ppg and more apg on the Hornets than he does on the Clips. It's not that complicated that having better teammates means you carry less of the load.

  Secondly, I'd like to point out your discussion about their "memorable performances". It's worth pointing out that Paul's signature playoff series came in the first round against a Lakers team that was promptly swept in the next round while Rondo's came in the ECF against a team that won the title. That's fairly emblematic of the situation, since Rondo generally shines against the best competition while Paul's advantage over Rondo is much more pronounced during the regular season than it is when the going gets tougher.

  You seem to think that Paul has a huge statistical advantage over Rondo in the playoffs, I don't agree. Since the 2009 playoffs began, including nba.com's efficiency rating(which doesn't favor scoring as much as PER):

Paul: 19.5/5.1/8.8, 24.8 ER
Rondo: 16.2/6.8/10.2, 22.7 ER

  So, slight advantage to Paul, but if you figure in the fact that playoff teams in the East are generally better defensively than the more offensive West and that playing on better teams tends to lower your stats the difference is very thin.

  Also, you mentioned Steve Nash. One of your comments was about how much better than Rondo Nash was at this point in Rondo's career. Just for fun, let's look at Nash's playoff numbers at the same point in *his* career:

Rondo: 16.2/6.8/10.2, 22.7 ER
Nash: 9.1/2.4/4.0, 8.9 ER

  You also mention Nash at his absolute prime. Since Rondo played 4 years in the playoffs in the time I looked at, let's compare that to the best 4 year statistical stretch of Nash's career:

Rondo: 16.2/6.8/10.2, 22.7 ER
Nash: 20.7/3.8/11.0, 24.2 ER

  So, bottom line, since 2009, while Paul's been significantly better in the regular season than Rondo he's had a slight statistical advantage in the playoffs over that time in spite of having generally worse opponents and being more the focus of his team's offense. Nash, who's won multiple MVPs and was widely seen as the best pg in the league for a decent period of time, has exactly 1 4 year stretch of playoff performance better than Rondo's last 4 playoffs (excluding defense, of course).  And Nash obviously wasn't close to Rondo at the same point in their careers. 

  Rondo's not a top 10 player in the regular season, although you could easily argue he's top 20. But when he's healthy in the playoffs he's top 5 or so. I'd say that how you perform in the playoffs has quite a bit to do with your postseason success. Case in point Rondo, who's led teams on deep playoff runs.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2013, 01:40:26 PM by BballTim »

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #109 on: November 17, 2013, 12:37:41 PM »

Offline cman88

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regardless of whether he is a starter all star or not, the fact is that Rondo is an allstar calibar player...heck he carried us through the playoffs in 2010 and 2012

Heck, even Kobe Bryant said that if "boston fans dont want him" he'll take him easily

to be honest, all this "trade rondo for garbage" is rediculous...every rebuilding team needs to start somewhere..and then build from there..its much easier when you have 1 all-star to rebuild than "hoping" to find one.

say you grab a wiggins, parker or randle...they would look alot nicer next to Rondo, sullinger, olynyk than just next to sullinger and olynyk

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #110 on: November 17, 2013, 12:40:49 PM »

Offline Eja117

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.
i contend that the 03 Cavs are a poor example of tanking working unless the goal was to get a superstar and lose him in free agency. The team it worked for that year was the Heat.  It didn't work for the Raptors, nor the Nuggets.  The Nuggets got Melo. They aren't any closer or further away now than they were a decade ago

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #111 on: November 17, 2013, 12:45:24 PM »

Offline BballTim

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.
i contend that the 03 Cavs are a poor example of tanking working unless the goal was to get a superstar and lose him in free agency. The team it worked for that year was the Heat.  It didn't work for the Raptors, nor the Nuggets.  The Nuggets got Melo. They aren't any closer or further away now than they were a decade ago

  I'm still curious about how it worked for the Warriors, who I don't think got a franchise player in 2012 and who I don't currently see as a threat to win the title. I'm somewhat reminded of a list of teams expected to win 54+ games this year that included the Cavs.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #112 on: November 17, 2013, 12:46:13 PM »

Offline Eja117

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I assume "top three" means drafted with one of the top three picks... which would eliminate Bird and Kobe on a fairly weak technicality.

...but not Darko!

Extremely weak in Bird's case.

Even then, that's still nothing close to "all but a couple cases."

Most modern title winners have drafted their best player, regardless of the games one wants to play with labeling and technicalities. It's that simple.

  None of Shaq's teams drafted their top player, neither did the Pistons, the Heat or the Celts. Technically the last 2 Lakers teams didn't either. When you say "most modern title teams", consider that 8-10 of the last 14 title teams didn't fall into that category.

Shaqs Orlando team made the finals. The Lakers drafted Kobe who was a franchise player. The Heat winning with Wade and Shaq drafted Wade. Paul Pierce in 2008 was arguably co MVP for our 2008 championship team. 19.5, 4.5 and 5 vs KG's 18.8,9.2 and 3.4 when you consider he had to guard Lebron and Kobe and won finals MVP.


Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)


Getting the picture?
You can delude the argument all you want because you don't like tanking, but unfortunately you need lottery picks to win NBA championships. I'm not saying all these teams tanked to get their picks. I'm just saying that without these players they drafted and built around- they probably don't win titles.

KG doesn't come to Boston without Pierce.
Lebron and Shaq don't come to Miami without Wade.
Shaq doesn't go to LA without Kobe.

They add the free agents after they establish they have a legitimate top 5 to 10 player- a franchise level scorer they can rely on when the time comes.
This represents a small percentage of the lottery picks made over that time. If you're going to list these guys you gotta list the others that were taken

Where's Eddy Curry, and Tyson Chandler, and Darko, and Kwame Brown, and Bogut and Marvin Williams?

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #113 on: November 17, 2013, 01:05:09 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.
i contend that the 03 Cavs are a poor example of tanking working unless the goal was to get a superstar and lose him in free agency. The team it worked for that year was the Heat.  It didn't work for the Raptors, nor the Nuggets.  The Nuggets got Melo. They aren't any closer or further away now than they were a decade ago

  I'm still curious about how it worked for the Warriors, who I don't think got a franchise player in 2012 and who I don't currently see as a threat to win the title. I'm somewhat reminded of a list of teams expected to win 54+ games this year that included the Cavs.

Again, the idea that the only way tanking "works" is if you win a championship in the following years isn't one that I subscribe to.

The Warriors tanked to protect their draft pick, which was top 7 protected but headed to Utah if they finished any better. They traded Ellis for Bogut, who was already out for the season. Then they shut down Steph Curry. David Lee was shut down in the first week of April. They were giving big minutes to guys like Mikki Moore, who they signed expressly to play 20+ minutes in losses. They started Charles Jenkins ahead of Nate Robinson.

Because of that, they were able to draft Harrison Barnes, who has gone on to be a fairly important contributor to their team, especially in last year's playoffs. Tanking absolutely worked for the Dubs, and frankly it was embarrassing to watch and a shame that it worked--and I dig Golden State.

As for the Cav's, I think you need to reread some of my other posts in the thread, or even the bottom of that post--just tanking isn't going to get the job done. The Cav's absolutely tanked for LeBron, and they ended up getting him. The fact that the management and front-office weren't able to surround him with many, if any, quality teammates is a different matter entirely.

But, to reiterate my original point, to say that tanking doesn't work because otherwise the Bobcats would be the best team in the league is shortsighted and silly. Because there are examples of teams that lost on purpose in order to bolster their rosters with high draft picks. That's tanking, and it's worked.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #114 on: November 17, 2013, 01:07:37 PM »

Offline cman88

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even if you subscribe to the fact that you dont agree with tanking because that player may not end up being a star..

keep in mind that even acquiring a star player in a trade, those lottery picks are valuable..

it was a lottery pick that netted us Ray allen...which in turn allowed KG to agree to come here.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #115 on: November 17, 2013, 01:30:23 PM »

Offline BballTim

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.
i contend that the 03 Cavs are a poor example of tanking working unless the goal was to get a superstar and lose him in free agency. The team it worked for that year was the Heat.  It didn't work for the Raptors, nor the Nuggets.  The Nuggets got Melo. They aren't any closer or further away now than they were a decade ago

  I'm still curious about how it worked for the Warriors, who I don't think got a franchise player in 2012 and who I don't currently see as a threat to win the title. I'm somewhat reminded of a list of teams expected to win 54+ games this year that included the Cavs.

Again, the idea that the only way tanking "works" is if you win a championship in the following years isn't one that I subscribe to.

The Warriors tanked to protect their draft pick, which was top 7 protected but headed to Utah if they finished any better. They traded Ellis for Bogut, who was already out for the season. Then they shut down Steph Curry. David Lee was shut down in the first week of April. They were giving big minutes to guys like Mikki Moore, who they signed expressly to play 20+ minutes in losses. They started Charles Jenkins ahead of Nate Robinson.

Because of that, they were able to draft Harrison Barnes, who has gone on to be a fairly important contributor to their team, especially in last year's playoffs. Tanking absolutely worked for the Dubs, and frankly it was embarrassing to watch and a shame that it worked--and I dig Golden State.

As for the Cav's, I think you need to reread some of my other posts in the thread, or even the bottom of that post--just tanking isn't going to get the job done. The Cav's absolutely tanked for LeBron, and they ended up getting him. The fact that the management and front-office weren't able to surround him with many, if any, quality teammates is a different matter entirely.

But, to reiterate my original point, to say that tanking doesn't work because otherwise the Bobcats would be the best team in the league is shortsighted and silly. Because there are examples of teams that lost on purpose in order to bolster their rosters with high draft picks. That's tanking, and it's worked.

  The Cavs comment was about another thread and not about your post. Sorry about that. As for GS, tanking always works in terms of getting better draft picks but, even if you don't win a title, it should at least have to give you a franchise cornerstone to have worked IMO.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #116 on: November 17, 2013, 01:38:27 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Yeah, that bit was in response to eja's post, not yours.

I guess it remains to be seen whether Barnes will become an essential piece of the Warriors' puzzle--he looked great last year, but his foot's kept him off the floor for most of this season.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #117 on: November 18, 2013, 04:16:45 AM »

Offline chambers

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I assume "top three" means drafted with one of the top three picks... which would eliminate Bird and Kobe on a fairly weak technicality.

...but not Darko!

Extremely weak in Bird's case.

Even then, that's still nothing close to "all but a couple cases."

Most modern title winners have drafted their best player, regardless of the games one wants to play with labeling and technicalities. It's that simple.

  None of Shaq's teams drafted their top player, neither did the Pistons, the Heat or the Celts. Technically the last 2 Lakers teams didn't either. When you say "most modern title teams", consider that 8-10 of the last 14 title teams didn't fall into that category.

Shaqs Orlando team made the finals. The Lakers drafted Kobe who was a franchise player. The Heat winning with Wade and Shaq drafted Wade. Paul Pierce in 2008 was arguably co MVP for our 2008 championship team. 19.5, 4.5 and 5 vs KG's 18.8,9.2 and 3.4 when you consider he had to guard Lebron and Kobe and won finals MVP.


Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)


Getting the picture?
You can delude the argument all you want because you don't like tanking, but unfortunately you need lottery picks to win NBA championships. I'm not saying all these teams tanked to get their picks. I'm just saying that without these players they drafted and built around- they probably don't win titles.

KG doesn't come to Boston without Pierce.
Lebron and Shaq don't come to Miami without Wade.
Shaq doesn't go to LA without Kobe.

They add the free agents after they establish they have a legitimate top 5 to 10 player- a franchise level scorer they can rely on when the time comes.

  And the Celtics currently have Rondo, who's shown he can be one of the top performers in the playoffs and lead teams to deep playoff runs, and we've heard many of the top players in the league saying they'd like to play with him. Problem solved.

Rondo is not a top 10 NBA player. Of the top 15 ranked NBA players, could you name one NBA team that would trade their top 15 player for Rondo? It would be very difficult to find a trade partner.

He's possibly the second wheel on a championship team like Wade is currently to Lebron, but he doesn't fall into the same category of guys on that list other than Kenyon Martin or Allan Houston- bench all stars.

Plain and simple fact is that he's not a scorer. Championship teams need those ya know.

  Referring to Rondo as a "bench all-star" seems to be quite a slight in your mind (I suppose because you feel that players like PP are a level or two below people who get voted onto the teams) in spite of the fact that Rondo was, as someone else pointed out, a starter in his last all-star game. But despite that "shortcoming", nothing you said really refuted my point. Did you happen to catch the playoffs in 2010 (game 7 of the finals)? If so, which of Rondo's teammates do you think played like LeBron?

Rondo started because Rose was injured- that doesn't make him starting All Star Material. All Stars are picked by fans and it's fair to say that Rondo is definitely the most entertaining player on the court in almost every game he plays.
Pierce plays the position that conveys the best basketball players and generally the most popular ones and to make the bench that many times is pretty unreal. I’d ask yourself how many All Star appearances Rondo makes without KG, Pierce and Ray around him- I think it's also fair to say there's a good chance that he won't get selected for a good few years until he's on a contender again.
That's the difference between Rondo and Chris Paul or a prime Steve Nash. They don't need guys around them to dominate- they can shoot, assist and control the game like Rondo without the leaks in their games.(Although I will mention Nash's defensive problems, even if they were generally overblown). Would Rondo make the All Star game if he were in Chris Paul's place in New Orleans? Or Nash's MVP and All Star place in Phoenix?
We’ll leave All Star appearances out of it then, because they’re really not important when looking at Rondo overall.
Talent wise, or results wise- he's averaged 12 points and 11 assists per game. He's shot less than 24% from 3 point land and 60% from the line over the last 3 seasons.
Yeah he's been great in some playoff series but he's also had Pierce and KG and Ray to pass to and finish.
Chris Paul has arguably never had anyone better than Blake Griffin to play with and has averaged 18.4 points and 9.6 assists in the last three seasons. In the playoffs he's averaged 20 points and 9.5 assists. His PER for the last three seasons is 26.86 and his playoff PER is over 27. His win shares per 48 minutes over the last three seasons are 28. Rondos are 11.8 wins per 48.
If you look at Steve Nash in his prime, his regular season numbers were actually very similar to Rondo's. The obvious difference that separates them as MVP material (like Chris Paul) is Nash's shooting. His superior shooting and free throws mean that his win shares in his MVP seasons were 20.3(2005) and 21.2(2006) with win shares of 23 and 22.
Nash's playoff stats are where you drop your jaw. His playoff AVERAGES were 24 points and 11 assists in 2005 with a PER of 23.4 in 2005 and 20 ppg and 11 with a PER of 21.3 in 2006.
Chris Paul has had some incredible numbers as well, the guys playoff PER over the last 3 seasons was 28 with his win shares at 20.7.
Why did Danny want Chris Paul so badly? As Danny Ainge stated when reflecting on the efforts to trade Rondo for CP3. ‘Chris Paul…well he's got the complete game.’
Rondo is VERY close, if not better at many aspects- but the shooting and lack of scoring on Rondo's behalf are the clear leaks that are preventing him from reaching Chris Paul's level. If he gets hot in a playoff series then yeah, he's on the Steve Nash/Chris Paul level- but he's not going to put up those numbers as much as CP3 is.
You've talked about Rondo's 2010 playoffs and his 2012 ECF run.
In 2010 he had that amazing 4th quarter in game 2 (among other highlights), and yeah he was great- but his averages for the series were 13.6 points,6.3 rebounds and 7.6 assists- nice numbers buts he's still got KG, Ray and Pierce all averaging at least 14 ppg around him.

Two memorable performances ?
1)
Let’s look at CP3's series against the Lakers in 2011 in his last run as a New Orleans Hornet.
22 pgg, 11.5 assists, 6.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals on a PER of 29 and true shooting percentage of 67% with an efficiency rating of 60 %!!! His Turnover percentage was 18%.
2) Rondo's 2012 ECF games were brilliant, 20.9 ppg, 11.3 assists and 6.3 rebounds with 1.9 steals per game with true shooting at 53 % and efficiency at 50%. Rondo's turnover rate was 25%.

Of course PER and Win shares don't mean everything but they tell a story of how much a particular player contributes to the overall success of their team- It's why  Danny picked all our rookies this season- they were all at the top of win shares for their position in the NCAA.
In the last three seasons during the playoffs Rondo's averaged 15 points and 10 assists. I mean they're great numbers but they're not franchise worthy. My point is that Rondo is not as good as Chris Paul or Steve Nash.
Which leads me to my most important point. The fact is that neither Nash nor Chris Paul are good enough to lead a team to the NBA finals- but they are/were both better players than Rondo. (at least up to this point in Rondo’s career)
 
Put Rondo on the Hornets and CP3 on the Celtics? Does he get that many assists without the elite players around him? Does Chris Paul get more points and more assists? The numbers say he definitely does because his usage is far more efficient- whether it be his shooting usage or his overall usage when on the floor.
In today’s modern NBA game, point guards are not the players to lead you to a championship. The last one that did it was Isiah
(I think?). Iverson tried hard- but he was a scoring guard. Rose might get close- but again he’s a scorer, not a ‘point’/facilitator guard.
What you’re also leaving out is Rondo’s regular season numbers which are hurting his team’s playoff position and home court advantage/seeding.
2012 NBA regular season? (his last full season)
Rajon Rondo 2011-12 regular season: 12 points, 11 assists and 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 3.6 turnovers per game.
PER of 17.5 and a win share of 12.1 games.


Compared to Chris Paul in the same year?

Chris Paul 2011-12 regular season: 19.8 ppg, 9.1 assists, 3.6 Rebounds, 2.4 steals, 2.1 turnovers.
PER of 27 with a win share of 27.8 games.


The triple doubles and 20 assist games are great- but the NBA and championships are built by consistency.
Consistency in effort, consistency in shooting, consistency in effectiveness and efficiency are just not there for Rondo.

CP3 might be good enough as the second fiddle on a championship team- we’re not sure yet. Plenty of basketball experts would say that Russell Westbrook is a better point guard/player than Rondo, and we know that they aren't winning anything in OKC unless Durant gets more help than Westbrook.

Anyway, Rondo is a fair way behind CP3 and I doubt he’ll ever reach CP3’s greatness.
With one season after this one remaining on his contract- perhaps it’s easy to see why some of us would prefer to trade him for a draft pick before he is potentially exposed- exposed in the sense that he doesn't have All Star team mates now. Sure he could blossom, but his pathetic shooting from range and pathetic free throw shooting aren't showing enough consistent improvement to make me see the light in such a prediction.

He's coming back from a serious injury. He's got one more year on his contract after this season. He's lost his All Star team mates and now more than ever is the chance he'll be exposed as a one dimensional player that NEEDS shooters around him.

Trade him for a nice pick or asset or watch him walk away in frustration to free agency for the bright lights of New York or any other contending team with the elite team mates he’s used to playing with his whole career.

Kid's freakin awesome, but unfortunately we are stuck between a rock and a hard place with his contract and the unknown dimension of any decent players around him.
He is not a top 10 player. He's not a top 15 player. He's an amazingly good point guard who's probably top 5 in the league at his position. Problem is he can't shoot and probably won't ever be able to shoot.

I guess the good outcome could be that without good players around him, his value plummets and no one else is willing to pay him the big $$$ as a free agent, leaving us to scoop him up for another bargain contract. I feel there are just too many teams in the NBA that would over pay him for his jersey sales/marketing appeal alone.

  That's quite a long post. A few points though:

  You talk about how Rondo's numbers would have gone down if he'd been on the Hornets and how Paul's would have gone up if he'd been on the Celts. You hear this a lot, but it's pretty unlikely. It's hard to find cases of top players who's numbers are worse when they're teamed with worse players and better when they're put on teams with stars. Case in point, Chris Paul. If you ignore his first two years in the league, he had more ppg and more apg on the Hornets than he does on the Clips. It's not that complicated that having better teammates means you carry less of the load.

  Secondly, I'd like to point out your discussion about their "memorable performances". It's worth pointing out that Paul's signature playoff series came in the first round against a Lakers team that was promptly swept in the next round while Rondo's came in the ECF against a team that won the title. That's fairly emblematic of the situation, since Rondo generally shines against the best competition while Paul's advantage over Rondo is much more pronounced during the regular season than it is when the going gets tougher.

  You seem to think that Paul has a huge statistical advantage over Rondo in the playoffs, I don't agree. Since the 2009 playoffs began, including nba.com's efficiency rating(which doesn't favor scoring as much as PER):

Paul: 19.5/5.1/8.8, 24.8 ER
Rondo: 16.2/6.8/10.2, 22.7 ER

  So, slight advantage to Paul, but if you figure in the fact that playoff teams in the East are generally better defensively than the more offensive West and that playing on better teams tends to lower your stats the difference is very thin.

  Also, you mentioned Steve Nash. One of your comments was about how much better than Rondo Nash was at this point in Rondo's career. Just for fun, let's look at Nash's playoff numbers at the same point in *his* career:

Rondo: 16.2/6.8/10.2, 22.7 ER
Nash: 9.1/2.4/4.0, 8.9 ER

  You also mention Nash at his absolute prime. Since Rondo played 4 years in the playoffs in the time I looked at, let's compare that to the best 4 year statistical stretch of Nash's career:

Rondo: 16.2/6.8/10.2, 22.7 ER
Nash: 20.7/3.8/11.0, 24.2 ER

  So, bottom line, since 2009, while Paul's been significantly better in the regular season than Rondo he's had a slight statistical advantage in the playoffs over that time in spite of having generally worse opponents and being more the focus of his team's offense. Nash, who's won multiple MVPs and was widely seen as the best pg in the league for a decent period of time, has exactly 1 4 year stretch of playoff performance better than Rondo's last 4 playoffs (excluding defense, of course).  And Nash obviously wasn't close to Rondo at the same point in their careers. 

  Rondo's not a top 10 player in the regular season, although you could easily argue he's top 20. But when he's healthy in the playoffs he's top 5 or so. I'd say that how you perform in the playoffs has quite a bit to do with your postseason success. Case in point Rondo, who's led teams on deep playoff runs.


Tim, you're highlighting the exact argument I'm trying to get across here. When has Chris Paul ever had anyone like Pierce, KG and Ray Allen on his team for the playoffs?

Player are interchanging parts that make each other better.
You're basically saying that Rondo and CP3 are on an even playing field because Rondo's been able to go deeper in the playoffs with his far superior team mates.
The fact that Rondo has NEVER posted a regular season better than Paul is not enough for you. The fact that CP3 has NEVER had team mates anywhere near the caliber of players as a collective sum of parts as Rondo's Celtics were for at least 4 of his best seasons.
The guy is a 25% 3 point shooter, and shoots 60% from the line on a good day- and you're claiming he's a top 10 player in the NBA. We just don't agree on this.
There's nothing that anyone can argue that will make you even consider that Rondo's simply not the number one or two guy on a contender- but that's fine, it's your opinion.

To me, CP3's win shares and true shooting percentages simply destroy Rondo whether it's playoffs or regular season. I guess the only way to see how Rondo goes in a situation like CP3 was in New Orleans is to wait until this season is over- even then he'll still be recovering from his injury. Lets see if he can keep or improve his numbers from before the injury. I sincerely doubt he can- and if he does, can he contribute similar win shares and true shooting percentages?
We'll just have to agree to disagree- although I do respect your opinion and appreciate that you do the same for me.
We'll let the numbers play themselves out because it could go either way- I just beleive the odds are stacked against him about 75-25 and you seem to be at about 50/50 or a slight edge to Rondo, if I'm correct?

PS.
Do you remember this?

http://nesn.com/2013/09/danny-ainge-tried-trading-rajon-rondo-for-chris-paul-to-get-over-the-hump-offensively/


« Last Edit: November 18, 2013, 04:44:28 AM by chambers »
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #118 on: November 18, 2013, 07:32:58 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Tim, you're highlighting the exact argument I'm trying to get across here. When has Chris Paul ever had anyone like Pierce, KG and Ray Allen on his team for the playoffs?

  Griffin's been 2nd team all-nba for the last 2 seasons and is widely regarded as a superstar. When's the last time you'd have said similar things about one of Rondo's teammates?

Player are interchanging parts that make each other better.
You're basically saying that Rondo and CP3 are on an even playing field because Rondo's been able to go deeper in the playoffs with his far superior team mates.

  Rondo used to have far superior teammates. Then they got older. It happens. It's been fairly noticeable.

The fact that Rondo has NEVER posted a regular season better than Paul is not enough for you. The fact that CP3 has NEVER had team mates anywhere near the caliber of players as a collective sum of parts as Rondo's Celtics were for at least 4 of his best seasons.

  I've said repeatedly that Rondo, while being one of the better players in the league during the season, is much more of an elite player in the postseason. So, no, the fact that CP3 outplays Rondo in the regular season isn't enough for me. And you're definitely giving too much credit to Rondo's aging teammates.

The guy is a 25% 3 point shooter, and shoots 60% from the line on a good day- and you're claiming he's a top 10 player in the NBA. We just don't agree on this.
There's nothing that anyone can argue that will make you even consider that Rondo's simply not the number one or two guy on a contender- but that's fine, it's your opinion.

  Trying to claim that Rondo wasn't even the second best player on any of our contending teams is fairly ridiculous. Claiming he's "simply not the number one or two guy on a contender" when he has been in the past is worse. I've seen him dominate many playoff games and some playoff series, you seem to feel that fg% and ft% are deciding factors.

To me, CP3's win shares and true shooting percentages simply destroy Rondo whether it's playoffs or regular season.

  If Rondo had Paul's TS% he'd probably average 2-3 more ppg in the playoffs. I think "destroy" is quite an overstatement.

PS.
Do you remember this?

http://nesn.com/2013/09/danny-ainge-tried-trading-rajon-rondo-for-chris-paul-to-get-over-the-hump-offensively/

  Sure. Everybody does. A few things from the article you quoted though:

  "Over the last few years, our biggest weakness was scoring in the last six minutes of games,” Ainge said. “Even with Ray and Paul and KG, we couldn’t get over the hump". - Sounds like Danny was able to figure out by 2010 that PP/KG/RA had already declined quite a bit. You seem to have overlooked that.

  "We thought his offense at the time was better than Rondo’s" - It's clear that Danny felt Paul was a better offensive player in 2010, it's not clear he still feels that way.

  "We’re excited to still have Rondo. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.” - Sounds like he's glad he didn't trade Rondo, he also states that they're not interested in trading Rondo anymore.

  And just for kicks, the article that links back to has Danny talking about Rondo being a top 10 player in the league.



Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #119 on: November 29, 2013, 09:17:11 PM »

Offline Eja117

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The Cleveland Cavs are a great example tonight of how tanking works. Or actually doesn't. You could not possibly tank better than this team did over a 3 draft period. They didn't just pick high once. They picked high 3 times. A total mess. They also got respectable free agents like Jarrett Jack and had a decent player in Varajao already. Even their later first rounder Zeller was all-rookie 2nd team.

Tanking. Ask the Cavs how it works.