Author Topic: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"  (Read 39478 times)

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Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« on: November 13, 2013, 11:45:10 AM »

Offline gpap

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Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2013, 11:50:13 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2013, 12:02:42 PM »

Offline TwinTower14

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Derrick Rose's Bulls, if he doesn't suffer a knee injury they may have a title.  the NBA is a super star driven league more than any other sport.  The only team I can remember that wasn't built with high lottery picks were the 2000's pistons.  Every title can be tied to a high pick.  The C's don't get Ray Allen without the 5 pick to trade and KG doesn't come to Boston if they don't have Ray Allen.  Lebron / Bosh don't go to Miami if Wade isn't there.  The Spurs / Rockets don't win titles without Duncan and The Dream, Kobe was a lottery pick. Yes, the Pistons won one title doing it without tanking and maybe the Pacers will prove us wrong? The evidence over the last few decades shows that securing lottery picks / with a competent GM is the path back to a title.  Not sure why people don't get this? 

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2013, 12:06:46 PM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.

What do you say about the countless teams who have swam in lottery water for years without ever getting significantly better?

*CB Miami Heat*
Kyle Lowry, Dwayne Wade, 13th pick in even numbered rounds, 18th pick in odd numbered rounds.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2013, 12:09:52 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.

What do you say about the countless teams who have swam in lottery water for years without ever getting significantly better?

I just think the premise of holding up the Bobcats as an example that tanking doesn't work is a bit of an incorrect syllogism.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2013, 12:11:14 PM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.

What do you say about the countless teams who have swam in lottery water for years without ever getting significantly better?

I just think the premise of holding up the Bobcats as an example that tanking doesn't work is a bit of an incorrect syllogism.

I agree. You can't draw direct comparisons like that but I also think it's often ignored when teams continually tank and continually suck.
*CB Miami Heat*
Kyle Lowry, Dwayne Wade, 13th pick in even numbered rounds, 18th pick in odd numbered rounds.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2013, 12:14:58 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Agreed, you need more of a long-term plan than "get bad and be bailed out by the lottery."
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2013, 12:19:14 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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It pretty much worked for the '06-'07 Celtics, too.

I think multiple seasons of tanking and poor management is the losing strategy. One season in the tank with a solid plan, that's another thing entirely.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2013, 12:27:43 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Pacers are the model I would like to follow.  They put the best team they could on the court every night.  They didn't always win, or even make the playoffs, but they never needed the ping pong balls to help.  They made good draft picks and signed free agents they could afford, and now they have a talented core and are legit title contenders.  Hiring Frank Vogel was a great decision too.  If we finish 10th and miss out on the best picks, all is not lost.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2013, 12:30:38 PM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

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Agreed, you need more of a long-term plan than "get bad and be bailed out by the lottery."

What is this!? A reasonable opinion on "tanking"?

Get outta town with that crap
*CB Miami Heat*
Kyle Lowry, Dwayne Wade, 13th pick in even numbered rounds, 18th pick in odd numbered rounds.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2013, 12:32:25 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.

What do you say about the countless teams who have swam in lottery water for years without ever getting significantly better?

They either drafted poorly, were run poorly, or got unlucky with how talented the drafts were in the years they tanked.

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2013, 12:34:36 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

The lottery in its current form makes tanking less mathematically sound than it was in 1984.  The Spurs, Warriors, and then-Sonics benefited from injuries to multiple key players, something that can't be planned. 

The Cavs were going to be a bad team even if completely healthy.  That sort of void of talent is the kind of scenario where I would approve of starting off the season with the tanking.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2013, 12:36:54 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.

What do you say about the countless teams who have swam in lottery water for years without ever getting significantly better?

They either drafted poorly, were run poorly, or got unlucky with how talented the drafts were in the years they tanked.
So in other words tanking words except when it doesn't. Well, that was insightful.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2013, 12:42:03 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Derrick Rose's Bulls, if he doesn't suffer a knee injury they may have a title.  the NBA is a super star driven league more than any other sport.  The only team I can remember that wasn't built with high lottery picks were the 2000's pistons.  Every title can be tied to a high pick.  The C's don't get Ray Allen without the 5 pick to trade and KG doesn't come to Boston if they don't have Ray Allen.  Lebron / Bosh don't go to Miami if Wade isn't there.  The Spurs / Rockets don't win titles without Duncan and The Dream, Kobe was a lottery pick. Yes, the Pistons won one title doing it without tanking and maybe the Pacers will prove us wrong? The evidence over the last few decades shows that securing lottery picks / with a competent GM is the path back to a title.  Not sure why people don't get this?

The lakers did it without tanking when they traded divac for Kobe and signed Shaq as a free agent. They then also traded Marc Gasol for pau Gasol , without tanking. Tanking has get low probability of workin out long term. The spurs team never tanked to get Duncan, they lost their star center for the season and got lucky when the odds were in the celtics favor to land Duncan

Re: Great Article by Chris Mannix on "Tanking"
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2013, 12:42:17 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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It worked for the '97 Spurs.
It worked for the '84 Rockets.
It worked for the '03 Cavs.
It worked for the '12 Warriors.
It worked for the Seattle SuperThunder.

He is right that "just tanking doesn't get the job done," though.

What do you say about the countless teams who have swam in lottery water for years without ever getting significantly better?

They either drafted poorly, were run poorly, or got unlucky with how talented the drafts were in the years they tanked.
So in other words tanking words except when it doesn't. Well, that was insightful.

Tanking doesn't succeed often enough for it to be a good strategy, so long as you have other options.  The Celtics have other options.  People who think that getting a high draft pick is the only chance for success are wrong.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference