Author Topic: Unconventional Wisdom  (Read 8601 times)

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Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #30 on: October 14, 2013, 03:10:05 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Etch this in stone: this year their model predicts the Rockets to have the best record and go to the finals. I'm saying it here and now before the season starts that that is exactly what will happen (of course barring major injury to one of the key Rockets pieces). I have complete confidence in this prediction, and I will be sure to remind everyone that I called it after it happens.

This is definitely a ballsy prediction.

I'm honesty leaning towards either Miami or Brooklyn.  I think they'll end up facing each other in the 2nd round, with Brooklyn coming out ahead, and then moving on to the Finals.

Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2013, 06:01:41 PM »

Offline yoursweatersux

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Etch this in stone: this year their model predicts the Rockets to have the best record and go to the finals. I'm saying it here and now before the season starts that that is exactly what will happen (of course barring major injury to one of the key Rockets pieces). I have complete confidence in this prediction, and I will be sure to remind everyone that I called it after it happens.

This is definitely a ballsy prediction.

I'm honesty leaning towards either Miami or Brooklyn.  I think they'll end up facing each other in the 2nd round, with Brooklyn coming out ahead, and then moving on to the Finals.

Here's one more: the Lakers' franchise record for losses is 52. I think that they break that record this season.

Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2013, 08:34:38 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Etch this in stone: this year their model predicts the Rockets to have the best record and go to the finals. I'm saying it here and now before the season starts that that is exactly what will happen (of course barring major injury to one of the key Rockets pieces). I have complete confidence in this prediction, and I will be sure to remind everyone that I called it after it happens.

This is definitely a ballsy prediction.

I'm honesty leaning towards either Miami or Brooklyn.  I think they'll end up facing each other in the 2nd round, with Brooklyn coming out ahead, and then moving on to the Finals.

Here's one more: the Lakers' franchise record for losses is 52. I think that they break that record this season.

That's interesting. Depends on how much Bryant they get. Hard to see Gasol/Nash/Kaman being one of the 8 worst teams in the league, especially with a few known tankers locking down the bottom spots.

Teams with less than 30 wins last year were Detroit, Washington, Sac, NO, Phoenix, Cleveland, Charlotte, Orlando.

Not sure Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, or Sac from last year are better than the lakers from this year. Not sure they wil be much better this year, so they may just be giving easy wins to LA and everyone else. Add Philly, Utah, possilby boston in.

Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2013, 08:47:46 PM »

Offline BASS_THUMPER

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Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #34 on: October 15, 2013, 01:09:22 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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this draft is on a whole 'nother level.
multiple franchise caliber players.
plus if we lose but develop our young guys like sully and olynyk then we get something out of it.

How are you coming up with this conclusion?  I don't care if Wiggins has been scouted since he was a baby, he hasn't proven anything past HS yet.  I want to see him dominate college first. Lebron/KG are like one time exceptions

Take a look at the draft for the past 10 years and only 2003-2004 stands to contain 4 or 5 franchise calibre players. Every other year, you get 1 or maybe 2 if your lucky. Even at that 2003-2004 there was proof and excitement why these guys were going to do very well in the nba. James a risk/exception choice, Darko obviously a miss, then you got Melo who in his 1st year led syracuse to a championship title and Dwade out of nowhere took his marquette team to the elite 8.

In the projection of 2014 draft, out of the top 5 picks only one will have more than one year of college experience and that is Marcus Smart. And even though he has potential he has ways to go to prove he can play nba ball. Bottom line is, nobody know how the 2014 draft pick will fare at this point.

So i don't agree with you danny pulled off the KG/PP trade just at the right time. It could of been a coincidence. He could of kept both, if we went to the ECF again. Its hard to say.

Adorable.

None of these guys would even be in college if they weren't required to be one year out from high school, and they'd still be coveted by NBA teams.

Whats even cuter is that you think some of these guys are shoe ins for the nba hof without seeing their next steps after hs.
Where has D.o.s. ever said that?

Well, I don't believe that I have. ;D

All the teams know if a guy has the potential to play in the NBA. There's a lot that can go right or wrong, obviously, but the top picks in any given draft are very scrutinized before they even play a single NCAA game. There's no universe in which LeBron James was a risky pick because he didn't play a second of college hoops.

I don't know if many CB'ers are familiar with the documentary "Gunning for that #1 Spot," but it does a pretty good job showing how young these guys are prospected (I think Tyreke Evans is 14 in that doc? That's a future #4 pick).

Can a college career bolster or torpedo a player's draft stock? Absolutely. You don't need to go further back than Nerlens Noel (and his ACL) to see that. Do most NBA GM's ignore players until they're generating tons of revenue as "student-athletes?" Absolutely not.
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Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #35 on: October 15, 2013, 01:18:46 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Personally I use time travel for all my player projections. Doc thinks it's a totally petty use of the delorean, but I tell him over and over...it's not about me; it's about me being right on Celticsblog. Also, pro tip: when traveling into the future, newspapers and actual books are no longer a 'thing' as of 2015, so make sure to bring a pen (also no longer available for consumer purchase) and a composite notebook in any future foray. They'll come in handy. Also, learn mandarin.

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Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #36 on: October 15, 2013, 01:21:44 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Personally I use time travel for all my player projections. Doc thinks it's a totally petty use of the delorean, but I tell him over and over...it's not about me; it's about me being right on Celticsblog. Also, pro tip: when traveling into the future, newspapers and actual books are no longer a 'thing' as of 2015, so make sure to bring a pen (also no longer available for consumer purchase) and a composite notebook in any future foray. They'll come in handy. Also, learn mandarin.

... That paints your picture of Al Swearengen in a whole new light!
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #37 on: October 15, 2013, 08:11:08 AM »

Offline BballTim

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this draft is on a whole 'nother level.
multiple franchise caliber players.
plus if we lose but develop our young guys like sully and olynyk then we get something out of it.

How are you coming up with this conclusion?  I don't care if Wiggins has been scouted since he was a baby, he hasn't proven anything past HS yet.  I want to see him dominate college first. Lebron/KG are like one time exceptions

Take a look at the draft for the past 10 years and only 2003-2004 stands to contain 4 or 5 franchise calibre players. Every other year, you get 1 or maybe 2 if your lucky. Even at that 2003-2004 there was proof and excitement why these guys were going to do very well in the nba. James a risk/exception choice, Darko obviously a miss, then you got Melo who in his 1st year led syracuse to a championship title and Dwade out of nowhere took his marquette team to the elite 8.

In the projection of 2014 draft, out of the top 5 picks only one will have more than one year of college experience and that is Marcus Smart. And even though he has potential he has ways to go to prove he can play nba ball. Bottom line is, nobody know how the 2014 draft pick will fare at this point.

So i don't agree with you danny pulled off the KG/PP trade just at the right time. It could of been a coincidence. He could of kept both, if we went to the ECF again. Its hard to say.

Adorable.

None of these guys would even be in college if they weren't required to be one year out from high school, and they'd still be coveted by NBA teams.

Whats even cuter is that you think some of these guys are shoe ins for the nba hof without seeing their next steps after hs.
Where has D.o.s. ever said that?

Well, I don't believe that I have. ;D

All the teams know if a guy has the potential to play in the NBA. There's a lot that can go right or wrong, obviously, but the top picks in any given draft are very scrutinized before they even play a single NCAA game. There's no universe in which LeBron James was a risky pick because he didn't play a second of college hoops.

  There's no universe in which LeBron was a risky pick, but there's a universe in which many of the top picks fail to live up to their projected level of play. We all live in it.

Re: Unconventional Wisdom
« Reply #38 on: October 15, 2013, 09:00:56 AM »

Offline bucknersrevenge

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this draft is on a whole 'nother level.
multiple franchise caliber players.
plus if we lose but develop our young guys like sully and olynyk then we get something out of it.

How are you coming up with this conclusion?  I don't care if Wiggins has been scouted since he was a baby, he hasn't proven anything past HS yet.  I want to see him dominate college first. Lebron/KG are like one time exceptions

Take a look at the draft for the past 10 years and only 2003-2004 stands to contain 4 or 5 franchise calibre players. Every other year, you get 1 or maybe 2 if your lucky. Even at that 2003-2004 there was proof and excitement why these guys were going to do very well in the nba. James a risk/exception choice, Darko obviously a miss, then you got Melo who in his 1st year led syracuse to a championship title and Dwade out of nowhere took his marquette team to the elite 8.

In the projection of 2014 draft, out of the top 5 picks only one will have more than one year of college experience and that is Marcus Smart. And even though he has potential he has ways to go to prove he can play nba ball. Bottom line is, nobody know how the 2014 draft pick will fare at this point.

So i don't agree with you danny pulled off the KG/PP trade just at the right time. It could of been a coincidence. He could of kept both, if we went to the ECF again. Its hard to say.

Adorable.

None of these guys would even be in college if they weren't required to be one year out from high school, and they'd still be coveted by NBA teams.

Whats even cuter is that you think some of these guys are shoe ins for the nba hof without seeing their next steps after hs.
Where has D.o.s. ever said that?

Well, I don't believe that I have. ;D

All the teams know if a guy has the potential to play in the NBA. There's a lot that can go right or wrong, obviously, but the top picks in any given draft are very scrutinized before they even play a single NCAA game. There's no universe in which LeBron James was a risky pick because he didn't play a second of college hoops.

I don't know if many CB'ers are familiar with the documentary "Gunning for that #1 Spot," but it does a pretty good job showing how young these guys are prospected (I think Tyreke Evans is 14 in that doc? That's a future #4 pick).

Can a college career bolster or torpedo a player's draft stock? Absolutely. You don't need to go further back than Nerlens Noel (and his ACL) to see that. Do most NBA GM's ignore players until they're generating tons of revenue as "student-athletes?" Absolutely not.

This doesn't answer the original question though. Who says there are multiple franchise-level players in this draft? I think there might be 1 or 2 guys people might view as potential franchise players. The rest will be either complementary players or 50/50 that they even come out next year. I'm not even sure Parker comes out next year. What's his motivation to? I think anyone pitching a pants tent over a few Youtube videos on DraftExpress needs to calm down about who's actually gonna be in this draft. I think there could be decent depth past the first 2 guys but you don't tank for "decent depth".
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