Author Topic: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)  (Read 57947 times)

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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #75 on: September 12, 2013, 01:07:41 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Gerald Wallace didn't take advantage of Nate Robinson on him in the playoffs this year. I don't think he'll able to exploit Avery or Monta either.

I didn't see that matchup, but the statistics say that Wallace had a much-improved playoff campaign (all games against the Bulls) over his regular season...

Reg season 7.7 ppg on .397 shooting and .282 from three, ,490 ts%
Playoffs 12 ppg on .463 shooting and .379 from three, .554 ts%

I was actually wondering what caused Wallace to have such a quick turnaround. Maybe it was Nate Rob.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #76 on: September 12, 2013, 01:11:19 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Gerald Wallace didn't take advantage of Nate Robinson on him in the playoffs this year. I don't think he'll able to exploit Avery or Monta either.

I didn't see that matchup, but the statistics say that Wallace had a much-improved playoff campaign (all games against the Bulls) over his regular season...

Reg season 7.7 ppg on .397 shooting and .282 from three, ,490 ts%
Playoffs 12 ppg on .463 shooting and .379 from three, .554 ts%

I was actually wondering what caused Wallace to have such a quick turnaround. Maybe it was Nate Rob.
He just shot 3s, barely posted Nate Rob up at all.

Had no plan to take advantage of him, Wallace is just a guy you can hide someone on defensively. Even more so than Tony Allen who would at least sneak in for a backdoor cut or rebound on you.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #77 on: September 12, 2013, 01:11:48 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Hey guys, Air is currently building all of the CB Draft teams on 2K13!

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #78 on: September 12, 2013, 01:16:07 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Gerald Wallace didn't take advantage of Nate Robinson on him in the playoffs this year. I don't think he'll able to exploit Avery or Monta either.

I didn't see that matchup, but the statistics say that Wallace had a much-improved playoff campaign (all games against the Bulls) over his regular season...

Reg season 7.7 ppg on .397 shooting and .282 from three, ,490 ts%
Playoffs 12 ppg on .463 shooting and .379 from three, .554 ts%

I was actually wondering what caused Wallace to have such a quick turnaround. Maybe it was Nate Rob.
He just shot 3s, barely posted Nate Rob up at all.

Had no plan to take advantage of him, Wallace is just a guy you can hide someone on defensively. Even more so than Tony Allen who would at least sneak in for a backdoor cut or rebound on you.

Well, he seemed to really improve in the playoffs, so how he got those points might be a bit moot. Regardless, less than half of his attempts against the Bulls were three pointers, so he was operating near the rim and "Crashing" about. In some cases, this will certainly bait LeBron to him. But if the actual result is that LeBron is out on the perimeter covering Ty and Ibaka is out covering Horford or KG, that basket is looking mighty open for Wallace, Crawford, Butler, Landry, and Allen (and the other guy out of KG and Horf).

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #79 on: September 12, 2013, 01:18:10 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Good idea or bad: Tony Allen occasionally guarding LeBron.
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #80 on: September 12, 2013, 01:19:45 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Good idea or bad: Tony Allen occasionally guarding LeBron.



Good idea.

(Ya can't really assume whether he got the steal here, but I'm gonna.)

I still don't really believe in head2head stats, but for those who do, LeBron has shot .372 in the playoffs against Tony Allen teams. Some of those are when Allen was playing minimal minutes on the C's, but he still shoots poorly in more recent games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=jamesle01&p2=allento01

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #81 on: September 12, 2013, 01:25:47 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Those are all from the 07-08 and 09-10 C's. So yeah moving on to the Memphis match ups...

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #82 on: September 12, 2013, 01:28:06 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Those are all from the 07-08 and 09-10 C's. So yeah moving on.....

Meh, still something to look at. Unless you have something else.

In his 2013 game against the Grizz, LeBron shot .286. LeBron did better in 2012, but the Grizz weren't nearly as good defensively then. And I think these Cavs are as good defensively as the 2013 Grizz.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #83 on: September 12, 2013, 01:37:47 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Keep 'em coming guys. I want to answer any questions you have.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #84 on: September 12, 2013, 01:52:58 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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I wonder if the Cavs have enough length at the rim to bother LeBron when he gets into the paint.

KG certainly does. He has fantastic size and length. However, Horford is only 6-9 with an 8-11 standing reach. Carl Landry is only 6-7/6-8 with a 8-6 standing reach. LeBron has had a lot of success against the Hawks in the past and I don't see Landry causing him any issues.

Outside of KG, I don't Cleveland's shot-blockers are going to cause LeBron many problems.

Which is a problem for me because KG is going to continue to decline.

Remember this is a one-year exercise. KG was rested during the regular season more than ever before in his career. And those are Horford and Landry's heights without shoes, just to clarify for those reading that and thinking they're both short for the position.

I'd like to congratulate AB & Air for making to the finals in their 1st go around.  That certainly is an accomplishment (much better than I did).

That said, and as nice of a guy as AB in particular is, I just don't see it.  Too weak in the wings.  I'm baffled they made it this far.  To me, wings are more important than bigs in today's NBA.

Likely leaning Minny in this series, because LeBron is LeBron.  Maybe if the Cavs had a Paul George type ;) they would have a chance.

Thanks for the kind words. I think we'll have to just disagree on wings vs. bigs though. I think team defense and rebounding are what wins in the NBA (especially in the playoffs) and you need bigs to be good at those things. And LeBron isn't a "win" button, as Lucky said.

Ibaka's main problem at the center position is that he doesn't have the physical size/toughness to matchup against the bigger bodies he faces at the C position vs PF position. KG lacks bulk (at C) too but he makes up for that with superb positional defense and greater length which Ibaka cannot do (yet?).

But when facing each other, it is a non-issue because Garnett doesn't have the type of profile / skill-set that causes Ibaka issues. Ibaka can cover him as an undersized C just as easily as when they matchup at PF.

I've hinted at this a few times, but Ibaka will be drawn out away from the basket by either KG or Horford, whoever he is put on. This will make him much less effective at shot-blocking, his best quality. So I'd say KG (or Horford) has a great skill-set to cause Ibaka's team issues. Both are great jump-shooters at the C spot.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #85 on: September 12, 2013, 01:57:15 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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k it's likely that KG will be hobbled at all.  AB indicated that KG sat out back to backs and was under a minutes restriction during the regular season.  I certainly don't think that there's a 60% chance that KG will be gimping around out there.

Quote
The only thing that can stop Minnesota from taking this in five games is Monta Ellis trying to get his.

Doesn't Monta Ellis always try to "get his"?

But Roy, Kevin Garnett will be 38 years old in the finals. This is charitable.

What percentage of 37-38 year old players make it through an NBA season, plus playoffs, at full strength? And what percentage of those that do are worth even half what they were the year before?

Studies I've seen (like http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/25/age-is-just-a-varible/) indicated that the WP/48 for players his age fall by more than half year over year, on average. That's for the guys who do manage to stay on the court, though! I don't know the attrition rate for 37-year-olds, but for 36-year-olds it's about 30%.

I don't mean to say that Garnett is fragile; I'm just pointing out that he has had several in-season injuries here in Boston and that he sat out the playoffs in '09. He's old, and he keeps in fantastic shape but he's not a Brett Favre never-miss-a-game iron man.

It's just not a good bet that he's going to factor significantly into this matchup.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #86 on: September 12, 2013, 02:00:42 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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However, judging from the playoffs so far, not many other people do. LeBron is turning into a "win button" in these drafts, regardless of the personnel around him. I simply can't buy Monta Ellis riding shotgun on a LeBron train trying to reach Titletown.

Agreed. 

Based upon a lot of the votes, you would think that Lebron was invincible.  He's not.  Heck, he came a couple of bricked FTs away from losing last year, despite having Wade and Bosh next to him.

Monta Ellis is not a good player.  He has no business being the second best player on a team hoping to win.

Why do people keep saying that Monta Ellis is the second best player on Minnesota? Serge Ibaka is the second best player on Minnesota.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #87 on: September 12, 2013, 02:04:02 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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What percentage of 37-38 year old players make it through an NBA season, plus playoffs, at full strength?

KG didn't play a full season. He sat out 18 games (over a fifth of the season... going by the IRL Cleveland's schedule) and played less than 30 minutes in the games he did play.

Why do people keep saying that Monta Ellis is the second best player on Minnesota? Serge Ibaka is the second best player on Minnesota.

I think they're talking about him as the second best scorer, which he is, and that's not good. Serge is good defensively, yes, but still overrated in my book.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #88 on: September 12, 2013, 03:49:42 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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If we keep LeBron smothered, which we intend to, who's gonna be left open for the clutch shot? Monta.

You won't keep LeBron smothered, that's the rub.  Nobody can (except for a very select few), and certainly not old man Wallace or Butler.  Putting TA on him would expose you in other areas, particularly in the backcourt.

Also, on the topic of Ibaka; sure, he is probably a bit overrated (I've stated this before in other threads), but he is still a star-ish type player.  You can't cheat off him too much, as he's extended his range to beyond the 3pt line.  I could see Ibaka playing the role of Bosh on this Minny team.  Maybe not quite as well, but reasonably close enough.

LeBron isn't a "win" button, as Lucky said.

"Win button", well sure, no.  But to beat a team with LeBron (that is competently built-as this Minny team is), you better be overwhelmingly better in almost all other aspects of the game.

You have a better frontcourt, but really, that's about it.  I just am not sold that will be enough.  Minny has the home court advantage as well.  That in and of itself isn't a  guarantee of anything, but it is a significant edge.

Here's a a simple, but true, mathematical inequality for you guys:  LeBron>(KG+Horford)

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #89 on: September 12, 2013, 03:50:11 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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k it's likely that KG will be hobbled at all.  AB indicated that KG sat out back to backs and was under a minutes restriction during the regular season.  I certainly don't think that there's a 60% chance that KG will be gimping around out there.

Quote
The only thing that can stop Minnesota from taking this in five games is Monta Ellis trying to get his.

Doesn't Monta Ellis always try to "get his"?

But Roy, Kevin Garnett will be 38 years old in the finals. This is charitable.

What percentage of 37-38 year old players make it through an NBA season, plus playoffs, at full strength? And what percentage of those that do are worth even half what they were the year before?

Studies I've seen (like http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/25/age-is-just-a-varible/) indicated that the WP/48 for players his age fall by more than half year over year, on average. That's for the guys who do manage to stay on the court, though! I don't know the attrition rate for 37-year-olds, but for 36-year-olds it's about 30%.

I don't mean to say that Garnett is fragile; I'm just pointing out that he has had several in-season injuries here in Boston and that he sat out the playoffs in '09. He's old, and he keeps in fantastic shape but he's not a Brett Favre never-miss-a-game iron man.

It's just not a good bet that he's going to factor significantly into this matchup.

But KG will get a full day of rest between games in the playoffs, and the Cavs are deep enough in the PF/C rotation that KG may not need to play much more than 30 minutes a night in this series.
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