Author Topic: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)  (Read 55141 times)

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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2013, 08:15:42 AM »

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PF: Kevin Garnett = Serge Ibaka

Nah.  KG still trumps Ibaka.  As has been noted previously, Ibaka is a poor man-to-man defender.  He doesn't help a defense in nearly the same way that KG does.

Statistically, KG is better offensively (I'd buy that), he's certainly a better passer, and he's dominated Ibaka head to head.

I definitely don't rate this one as even.

I think KG's defense has been declining and will drop-off considerably more once he transitions back to PF. So as defenders, I think they are comparable. I would actually give Ibaka the edge at PF (but KG at C).

I give KG a small edge on offense due to his passing ability (Ibaka limited passer, KG a great passer). However, as scorers + jump-shooters, I think they are even. And, I don't think KG can score in the post consistently against Ibaka which is KG's only possible shot-creation advantage over a player like Ibaka.

As possession creators, I think Ibaka forces far more turnovers and can rebound outside his area which KG can no longer do (increasingly important when rebounding as a PF vs C when you have to cover more ground to rebounds). Advantage Ibaka.
KG will be playing center
advantage KG
With Horford at forward? Guarding Ibaka when Minny is big and guarding Battier at the three point line when Minny go small?

Okay.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2013, 08:19:09 AM »

Offline fitzhickey

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Quote
PF: Kevin Garnett = Serge Ibaka

Nah.  KG still trumps Ibaka.  As has been noted previously, Ibaka is a poor man-to-man defender.  He doesn't help a defense in nearly the same way that KG does.

Statistically, KG is better offensively (I'd buy that), he's certainly a better passer, and he's dominated Ibaka head to head.

I definitely don't rate this one as even.

I think KG's defense has been declining and will drop-off considerably more once he transitions back to PF. So as defenders, I think they are comparable. I would actually give Ibaka the edge at PF (but KG at C).

I give KG a small edge on offense due to his passing ability (Ibaka limited passer, KG a great passer). However, as scorers + jump-shooters, I think they are even. And, I don't think KG can score in the post consistently against Ibaka which is KG's only possible shot-creation advantage over a player like Ibaka.

As possession creators, I think Ibaka forces far more turnovers and can rebound outside his area which KG can no longer do (increasingly important when rebounding as a PF vs C when you have to cover more ground to rebounds). Advantage Ibaka.
KG will be playing center
advantage KG
With Horford at forward? Guarding Ibaka when Minny is big and guarding Battier at the three point line when Minny go small?

Okay.
I'm just going by the depth chart
I'll let AB defend his team  ;D
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2013, 08:24:11 AM »

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Ibaka's main problem at the center position is that he doesn't have the physical size/toughness to matchup against the bigger bodies he faces at the C position vs PF position. KG lacks bulk (at C) too but he makes up for that with superb positional defense and greater length which Ibaka cannot do (yet?).

But when facing each other, it is a non-issue because Garnett doesn't have the type of profile / skill-set that causes Ibaka issues. Ibaka can cover him as an undersized C just as easily as when they matchup at PF. 

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2013, 08:28:07 AM »

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My initial reaction is to lean toward Cleveland.  I think they've got the personnel and the defensive philosophy to limit Lebron.  If Lebron isn't scoring 35+ per night, I don't think that Minnesota can win this series.

I've made my opinion of Gerald Wallace The Celtic widely known.  Gerald Wallace The Defender, though, is a completely different player.  Since you don't have to worry about his contract in this game, Wallace is a very valuable piece.

I think that Gerald Wallace has the potential to replicate what Shawn Marion did to Lebron in the 2011 Finals.  He only averaged around 13 points per game, but he was arguably the MVP of that series, because he hassled Lebron at every turn.  I can see that here.  In fact, I do see that here.

Yeah, I think this is a much better lineup to use than starting Caron Butler. Sticking Gerald Wallace in there to defend LeBron frees up TA to stay on Monta Ellis who would have been a big matchup problem otherwise. That is a much stronger lineup.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2013, 08:37:53 AM »

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I wonder if the Cavs have enough length at the rim to bother LeBron when he gets into the paint.

KG certainly does. He has fantastic size and length. However, Horford is only 6-9 with an 8-11 standing reach. Carl Landry is only 6-7/6-8 with a 8-6 standing reach. LeBron has had a lot of success against the Hawks in the past and I don't see Landry causing him any issues.

Outside of KG, I don't Cleveland's shot-blockers are going to cause LeBron many problems.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2013, 09:07:21 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I wonder if the Cavs have enough length at the rim to bother LeBron when he gets into the paint.

KG certainly does. He has fantastic size and length. However, Horford is only 6-9 with an 8-11 standing reach. Carl Landry is only 6-7/6-8 with a 8-6 standing reach. LeBron has had a lot of success against the Hawks in the past and I don't see Landry causing him any issues.

Outside of KG, I don't Cleveland's shot-blockers are going to cause LeBron many problems.
Which is a problem for me because KG is going to continue to decline.

Cleveland needs him on the court an awful lot to contain LeBron. I also think that because their best two defenders are Allen/Wallace that they are going to struggle to score. Especially if they use Tony on Ellis when he's not on LeBron as Who suggests.

Edit: Allen and Wallace on the floor at the same time is going to be make it awfully tough to score is what I'm saying.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2013, 09:14:38 AM by Fafnir »

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2013, 09:20:03 AM »

Offline dark_lord

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I like the cavs team, and f they were a team in real life, I would be a big fan for their style.  BUT, I think minny takes this one. lbj is on another level and he has pieces around him that are an excellent fit.  one other factor....the refs love them some lbj ;)

holding off on my vote and will read the discussion, but as of now, I say minny

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2013, 09:20:32 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I wonder if the Cavs have enough length at the rim to bother LeBron when he gets into the paint.

KG certainly does. He has fantastic size and length. However, Horford is only 6-9 with an 8-11 standing reach. Carl Landry is only 6-7/6-8 with a 8-6 standing reach. LeBron has had a lot of success against the Hawks in the past and I don't see Landry causing him any issues.

Outside of KG, I don't Cleveland's shot-blockers are going to cause LeBron many problems.
Which is a problem for me because KG is going to continue to decline.

Cleveland needs him on the court an awful lot to contain LeBron. I also think that because their best two defenders are Allen/Wallace that they are going to struggle to score. Especially if they use Tony on Ellis when he's not on LeBron as Who suggests.

Defintiely an aspect that needs attention drawn to it.

While I just do not believe Wallace is capable of limiting James at this point in his career, even if he somehow can, how many points can he realistically be counted on to score?

I see Cleveland having a hard time scoring in this series.  Lawson and Crawford are going to be asked to carry a pretty large burden on offense, yet Minny seemingly has pretty good answers on the defensive end to stifle both.  If Allen sees major minutes, this becomes an even greater problem.

This seems like an uphill battle for the Cavs, in my mind.  Horford will probable get his 20 pts, KG his typical 15 or so and Lawson in the high teens.  Even if Crawford can average near 20 pts (unlikely), that still leaves an awful lot of pts to be made up, with not a lot of good offensive options remaining.

Cleveland's best hope seems to be to keep this series low scoring, maybe in the mid 80's.  I'm not sure they can do that consistently over the course of the entire series.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2013, 09:46:15 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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This seems like an uphill battle for the Cavs, in my mind.  Horford will probable get his 20 pts, KG his typical 15 or so and Lawson in the high teens.  Even if Crawford can average near 20 pts (unlikely), that still leaves an awful lot of pts to be made up, with not a lot of good offensive options remaining.

Cleveland's best hope seems to be to keep this series low scoring, maybe in the mid 80's.  I'm not sure they can do that consistently over the course of the entire series.

If those four players combine for 73 points or so, Minnesota is cooked. Wallace, Tony, Butler and Landry should be able to add another 30 or so, at minimum.

With Cleveland's defense, they will win this series if they score 90+ per night.


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2013, 09:51:41 AM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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I'm wondering, if Cleveland starts Gerald Wallace to contain LeBron in a way, will it shift the balance of power?

It's seems like Minny is running with this simply because there's no answer for James, even with the loaded defensive front court. But with Wallace pestering him, maybe, just maybe it can slow him down. Slow him enough that Cleveland can go toe to toe scoring wise.

I think while LeBron will still get his 20+ points, the Wallace factor may take away the double team aspect so the rest of the Cavs' lineup can stay honest with LeBron's shooters. And TBH, i'd be fine with LBJ scoring 30 as long as his supporting cast is shut down completely.

Assuming that LBJ runs Iso's and Pick and rolls, Mysynergy has Wallace allowing 0.77 PPP on iso's and 0.84 PPP on PnR Ball Handlers. Not sure if it will be good enough. But if he can at least contain LBJ one on one without getting any help, then Tony Allen shuts down Monta, the Cavs will have a fighting chance, a ton of it IMO.

« Last Edit: September 12, 2013, 09:57:33 AM by Yoki_IsTheName »
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2013, 09:52:23 AM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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KG at full strength is superior to Ibaka. Play this season out 10 times, though, and Garnett is limping through the playoffs in at least six of them while Ibaka is at full strength. We've already seen it happen and Garnett is even older now.

I'm rooting for Cleveland, but this is a mismatch.

Minnesota is going to dictate the pace of this game, Cleveland will have to chose between playing a lineup that can keep up with the pace and defend but can't penetrate the Bradley-James-Ibaka shell in order to capitalize on the soft-Jordan-underbelly, or a lineup that simply can't keep up and will get murdered in transition.

The only thing that can stop Minnesota from taking this in five games is Monta Ellis trying to get his.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2013, 11:19:59 AM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Morning everyone. Glad to see that there's been a good amount of discussion and that people are giving Cleveland a fighting chance.

I just want to post some strategical points...

Quote
Defense:
- LeBron James will always be defended by one of Tony Allen or Gerald Wallace. Both are skilled enough and tough enough to slow him down
- The much-less-efficient Monta Ellis will be defended by Caron Butler or Jamal Crawford (or Tony Allen if Wallace is on the floor). We want Monta taking more shots than LeBron
- We may also go with a starting lineup of Lawson-Butler-Wallace-Horford-Garnett. This will keep defensive pressure on LeBron, keep 3pt shooting in the starting lineup, and further bait Monta to chuck. Hollins will make the call on that
- Serge Ibaka will be defended by the Al Horford. Ibaka can spread the floor, but the quick-footed Horford can keep up with him
- DeAndre Jordan will be defended by Kevin Garnett. Jordan, while athletic, cannot do much else on offense other than dunk. With Garnett on him, those dunks won't come easily
- Avery Bradley will be defended by Ty Lawson. Ty is more than quick enough to keep up with Bradley, and that's really all you have to do to stop him offensively: stay with him on his cuts and contest his jumpers

Offense:
- Whenever Serge Ibaka is on the floor, Kevin Garnett and Al Horford will be as well. Ibaka will have to guard one of them, and whomever he is guarding will be told to pull him out towards the 3pt line (both are good long-range jump shooters), opening up the basket for Lawson, Crawford, and the other big man
- If LeBron is put on Lawson, then either 6'2" Avery Bradley or 6'3" Monta Ellis is guarding 6'7" (and much stronger) Gerald Wallace, who will post up like crazy
- If Bradley is put on Lawson, well, as much as I hate to be hypocritical, I'll just leave this here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=lawsoty01&p2=bradlav01
- Horford or Garnett should both be able to score on DeAndre Jordan with ease. While Jordan is strong and a good shot-blocker, his team defense is quite poor

Bottom line:
LeBron James is the best player in the world. I don't deny it and I don't think anyone else does. But this LeBron team does not have enough firepower at the other positions to win a title. It is closer to his Cleveland teams than to his Miami teams (through no fault of McHP). My Cleveland squad was constructed for the playoffs and for clutch situations. They will pull out this series win and give KG his second title.

I'm around for a bit to answer questions. Go Cavs.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #27 on: September 12, 2013, 11:26:00 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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KG at full strength is superior to Ibaka. Play this season out 10 times, though, and Garnett is limping through the playoffs in at least six of them while Ibaka is at full strength. We've already seen it happen and Garnett is even older now.

I'm curious about this, even outside the context of this game.

I've been pretty vocal that I'm still a believer in KG (and Pierce).  I was disappointed to see him traded.

When you talk about him being likely to "limp through the playoffs", what specifically are you talking about?

He was obviously banged up in 2009.  In 2010 - 2013, though, KG has been the least of our problems from my perspective. 

In 2012, he averaged 19 points and 10+ rebounds.  In 2013, he averaged 13 points and 14 rebounds (which led the league).  He was excellent against Miami in 2012, averaging approximately those same 19 points and 10 rebounds, including games where he scored 26 and 24 points.

I don't think it's likely that KG will be hobbled at all.  AB indicated that KG sat out back to backs and was under a minutes restriction during the regular season.  I certainly don't think that there's a 60% chance that KG will be gimping around out there.

Quote
The only thing that can stop Minnesota from taking this in five games is Monta Ellis trying to get his.

Doesn't Monta Ellis always try to "get his"?


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #28 on: September 12, 2013, 11:27:32 AM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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The only thing that can stop Minnesota from taking this in five games is Monta Ellis trying to get his.

Doesn't Monta Ellis always try to "get his"?

He does, and we're gonna let him. If Monta takes more shots than LeBron, our defense has done its job.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #29 on: September 12, 2013, 11:37:39 AM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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The only thing that can stop Minnesota from taking this in five games is Monta Ellis trying to get his.

Doesn't Monta Ellis always try to "get his"?

He does, and we're gonna let him. If Monta takes more shots than LeBron, our defense has done its job.

But Monta Ellis have it all. What else is there to get?  ;D
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