2013 CB Draft: Western Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Oklahoma City(2)

[nickagneta]

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Minnesota
Guards: Monta Ellis, Avery Bradley, C.J. Miles, Kyle Korver, Mario Chalmers, Jordan Farmar
Forwards: Lebron James, Serge Ibaka, Shane Battier, Glen Davis, Jae Crowder
Centers: DeAndre Jordan, Greg Stiemsma
Coach: Nate McMillen

Presser: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67440.msg1546544#msg1546544

Oklahoma City
Guards:  Derrick Rose, Iman Shumpert, Bem McLemore, Marco Belinelli, Eric Maynor, Dennis Schoeder, Ben Gordon
Forwards: Patrick Patterson, Taj Gibson, Udonis Haslem, Chase Budinger, Landry Fields
Centers: Dwight Howard, Iam Mahinmi
Coach: Mike Brown

Presser: http://forums.celticsblog.com

Polls open at 12 noon EST Sept. 11th. Close 11:59:59PM  Sept. 11th. Here are the voting guidelines for this round:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67476.msg1549103#msg1549103

[nickagneta]

Thread open

[Who]

OKC is an easy team for Minnesota to go small against. Taj Gibson isn't much of an offensive threat. Easy to hide a combo forward on him. Be it LeBron or Battier. Get extra shooting and floor spacing on the floor.

I think OKC has the (slight) advantage when both teams stay big. Both teams will defend each other very well but I think OKC have a bit more offense in their lineup than MIN does. Taj Gibson and Dwight Howard will make life very difficult for LeBron (and Monta) without more floor spacing on the floor to stretch the defense.

I think Minny's main rotation should look something like this.

PG - Avery Bradley, Mario Chalmers
SG - Monta Ellis, CJ Miles
SF - Shane Battier, Kyle Korver
PF - LeBron James, Serge Ibaka
 C - DeAndre Jordan, Glen Davis

I think Glen Davis is the only other big man who can defend Dwight Howard adequately after DeAndre Jordan. Serge Ibaka and Greg Stiemsma both too weak physically and too poor as post position defenders. Dwight would have a field day on Ibaka/Stiemsma.

They can move in Chalmers if they need more shooting but I would be very hesitant to lose Avery Bradley's defense on Derrick Rose. That is a big asset for MIN's defense.

I think this is a series where Oklahoma could be punished badly for it's lack of quality at SF. Not sure how best for them to matchup against those small ball lineups. Keep Taj Gibson on the floor? Or drop him and play Belinelli instead?

If Minnesota were to go small, in terms of bench + coaching, I Minnesota would have bench advantages at PG (Chalmers > Maynor), SF (Battier > Fields) and center (Ibaka > Mahinmi) + would be even at PF (Haslem = BBD) + a coaching advantage (N.McMillan > Mike Brown) while OKC has an advantage with Ben Gordon over CJ Miles. If the Wolves stay big, I would switch that Mahinmi vs Stiemsma battle in OKC's favour even out the bench battle.

[Who]

Although neither Shumpert or Budinger are enough of a threat to offensively that Minnesota couldn't put both of their undersized backucourt guards on them.

So they can stick LeBron on D-Rose since OKC's SG/SF/PF aren't good enough to punish MIN.

Defensive Matchups (MIN on defense, OKC on offense)

PG - Rose vs LeBron
SG - Shumpert vs Monta
SF - Budinger vs (any one of A.Bradley, Chalmers, Korver, Battier, CJ Miles)
PF - T.Gibson vs Ibaka (or Battier)
 C - Dwight vs D.Jordan

How well could OKC score against that Minnesota defense with LeBron covering Rose + two shot-blockers on the floor with Ibaka able to play free safety off of Taj Gibson forcing Gibson?

With LeBron containing D-Rose and double teams easy to throw at Dwight off of Taj Gibson, essentially forcing Taj Gibson to be the offense's bail-out option when other options are taken off the table. Multiple long two point jump-shots for Taj Gibson. The lowest efficiency shot in OKC's offense/lineup.

That is pretty nasty. I've changed my mind on OKC big lineup having the advantage against MIN's big lineup. I think Minnesota wins when they go big and wins when they go small. Tough matchup for OKC.

[Roy H.]

OKC is just so weak at SG, SF, and PF.  I don't see how they'd realistically win a game in this series.

I suppose conventional wisdom is that Howard will be putting up 60 points and 45 rebounds nightly against DeAndre Jordan, and Rose will be averaging a quintuple double against Chalmers or Bradley.

I can't see it.  I respect the job Lucky did in taking over a really messed up team, but this is a Minnesota sweep.

[McHales Pits]

I have to catch a flight for work in a few hours (and still haven't packed) so I will likely make one gameplan post before the flight at 12:30 and then will be back on around 5 to defend my team or answer questions.

Cheers All

[nickagneta]

So last round we were told to ignore the head to head stats between Howard and Jefferson that Howard would dominate him. Given the head to head stats show that Howard dominates DeAndre Jordan, I wonder if we are going to be told to pay attention to the stats.

Quick take on this is that I thing both teams are top heavy in talent and weak thereafter but that the TWolves have better experience and better talent and better complimentary talent than the Thunder.

Rose should have a real tough time with Bradley. And even if Howard beats up on Jordan, I think Big Baby and Ibaka will frustrate Howard once Jordan gets into his nightly foul trouble. The advantages OKC has with their two stars I think will be mitigated and I think Lebron, Ellis, Ibaka, Korver and Battier will thrive against the relatively poor grouping of Gibson, Budinger, Patterson, Shumpert and Gordon

I have Minny in 5 games. Gonna take some fairly persuasive points to make me see this otherwise.

[rondoallaturca]

Min exploits many of Okc's weaknesses here. Two great teams but I think Min will take the series.

[KGs Knee]

Same as last series involving Minny, OKC just has no answer for LeBron.  While Minny should be able to at least reasonably contain Howard/Rose with Jordan/Ibaka/AB.

Minny in 5.

[dark_lord]

Rose should have a real tough time with Bradley. And even if Howard beats up on Jordan, I think Big Baby and Ibaka will frustrate Howard once Jordan gets into his nightly foul trouble. The advantages OKC has with their two stars I think will be mitigated and I think Lebron, Ellis, Ibaka, Korver and Battier will thrive against the relatively poor grouping of Gibson, Budinger, Patterson, Shumpert and Gordon

pretty much how I see it at this point.  im leaning towards minny.  but lucky is really good at breaking things down so I will see what he says, but admittedly it will take a lot to change my initial thoughts

[Lucky17]

Although neither Shumpert or Budinger are enough of a threat to offensively that Minnesota couldn't put both of their undersized backucourt guards on them.

So they can stick LeBron on D-Rose since OKC's SG/SF/PF aren't good enough to punish MIN.

Defensive Matchups (MIN on defense, OKC on offense)

PG - Rose vs LeBron
SG - Shumpert vs Monta
SF - Budinger vs (any one of A.Bradley, Chalmers, Korver, Battier, CJ Miles)
PF - T.Gibson vs Ibaka (or Battier)
 C - Dwight vs D.Jordan

How well could OKC score against that Minnesota defense with LeBron covering Rose + two shot-blockers on the floor with Ibaka able to play free safety off of Taj Gibson forcing Gibson?

With LeBron containing D-Rose and double teams easy to throw at Dwight off of Taj Gibson, essentially forcing Taj Gibson to be the offense's bail-out option when other options are taken off the table. Multiple long two point jump-shots for Taj Gibson. The lowest efficiency shot in OKC's offense/lineup.

That is pretty nasty. I've changed my mind on OKC big lineup having the advantage against MIN's big lineup. I think Minnesota wins when they go big and wins when they go small. Tough matchup for OKC.

I'm conducting draft proceedings for much of the morning, so I'll have to respond in depth later.

But, I plan to bring in another SG this series (Maynor for help running the offense, or Gordon when more firepower is needed), as I'm not concerned too much about containing Avery Bradley. Rose will contain Ellis quite easily, I think.

Shumpert will see more time at SF. If LeBron slides to PF and goes small, Taj Gibson will have that defensive assignment.

As with the other series, I'll force LeBron's supporting cast to beat me. LeBron will get his, but with Rose on Ellis, and Taj (or Dwight when Wolves go small) on Ibaka, we'll make Minnesota's co-stars work for points.

[Lucky17]

Also, this may be a series where Patrick Patterson may see a slight increase in minutes, for his ability to spread the floor a bit (and draw Ibaka out). Debating how best to employ/complement his skill set.

[Lucky17]

Lastly, I wish we had some direct first-hand evidence as to how Avery Bradley would fare against Derrick Rose (they only faced each other once).

Folks assume Avery would contain Rose, but I am not so sure. I think Bradley could end up picking up some quick fouls at the outset of the game.

[Lucky17]

So last round we were told to ignore the head to head stats between Howard and Jefferson that Howard would dominate him.

I don't think I ever said that. I did tell folks to look more closely at the stats, to see whether Big Al ever "neutralized" Howard. Scoring was close when Al was a primary offensive option for his teams (and I disputed whether he'd be as efficient while having to work hard one defense vs. Dwight, and whether he'd continue to play a primary role in the Dallas offense), but in all other facets of the game, Dwight had an edge, sometimes a significant one.

[Who]

Also, this may be a series where Patrick Patterson may see a slight increase in minutes, for his ability to spread the floor a bit (and draw Ibaka out). Debating how best to employ/complement his skill set.

I think that would work extremely well (Patterson vs Ibaka).

Edit: Hmm, maybe not. I would be worried about how you contain LeBron without a 2nd shot-blocker alongside Dwight Howard. Howard by himself hasn't slowed down LeBron much in the past. Unsure. How well could Shumpert defend LeBron?