Also, I like Taj Gibson on Josh Smith. Historically, Smith has scored over 20 points against Gibson's Bulls once, in 13 games.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=smithjo03&p2=gibsota01
In three of those meetings, the woeful Gibson has outscored or matched Josh Smith's point totals.
I think those stats show a fairly significant advantage for Josh Smith myself.
15.8 PPG vs 10.1 PPG
8.7 RPG vs 7.2 RPG
3.5 APG vs 1.2 APG
1.4 SPG vs 0.5 SPG
2.1 BPG vs 1.5 BPG
Smith getting to the line 4 times a game vs 1 for Gibson.
Gibson only outscore Smith once, 10 points to 8 on a horrific shooting night from Smith, things he tends to have every once in a while against everyone because he falls in love with the outside shot.
In their playoff matchups the difference becomes even greater in Smiths favor, so say the stats on that page you provided.
Except Dallas' reliance on Smith's offensive production is so much greater than OKC's on Gibson.
If you told me that the net difference is 5-6 points a night in Dallas' favor, I'd take it. Especially when Smith is shooting below 40% from the field to get those points.
Is that true?
Big Al will play Howard evenly on the scoreboard. History has proven this.
Deng can outscore Budinger by 7 to 10 per night.
LinkSmith can outscore Gibson by 5 to 6 per night, by your own admission.
Gordon can outscore Shumpert by 5 to 7 per night.
Dallas' bench will play your bench, at the very least, evenly.
So, that means that Rose has to outscore Nash by between 17 and 23 point per night for you to win, on the conservative side.
I just don't see that happening, especially with Deng, Gordon and Smith helping on defense.