2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[Who]

This is going to be a tough one. I think OKC has an edge with Rose and Howard over Nash and Big Al (even if Roy's stats say otherwise).

And aren't those stats important to consider?

I focused on the last five games so that folks couldn't say I cherry-picked, or was relying on games from many years ago that don't matter.  However, for their careers, Big Al has held D12 to 15.9 points, so it isn't a fluke.

Big Al vs. Howard is neutral.

If you ignore their defense (and rebounding).

Big Al is a major liability on team defense and Dwight Howard is one of the best help + interior defenders in the league ... if not the very best once again next season.

Big Al can score with D-Howard -- heck Big Al is better offensively with his abundance of post moves and superior jump-shooting -- but he cannot match what Dwight Howard gives his team on the other end of the floor (or on the boards).

[Fafnir]

Yeah Big Al/Dwight Howard isn't a neutral match up at all.

[fitzhickey]

I would probably play Gordon on Rose. all shump can do is dunk.
big al, as previously stated holds D12 to worse stats than usual. as close as neutral a match up as many would get at C. as his stats are lowered his impact will be lowered. his help D is still good but Big Al can hit that mid range shot. so if Gordon drives and D12 rushes over just kick it to big al.
and then OKC is blown out of the water at 2/3/4 and a pretty even bench
the only real advantage is PG, and that advantage would be negated slightly

[Roy H.]

This is going to be a tough one. I think OKC has an edge with Rose and Howard over Nash and Big Al (even if Roy's stats say otherwise).

And aren't those stats important to consider?

I focused on the last five games so that folks couldn't say I cherry-picked, or was relying on games from many years ago that don't matter.  However, for their careers, Big Al has held D12 to 15.9 points, so it isn't a fluke.

Big Al vs. Howard is neutral.

If you ignore their defense (and rebounding).

Big Al is a major liability on team defense and Dwight Howard is one of the best help + interior defenders in the league ... if not the very best once again next season.

Big Al can score with D-Howard -- heck Big Al is better offensively with his abundance of post moves and superior jump-shooting -- but he cannot match what Dwight Howard gives his team on the other end of the floor (or on the boards).

But isn't most of the defense head-to-head?  As for team defense, that advantage for Howard hasn't amounted to much, since Big Al's teams have won the majority of games they've played in.  Plus, Smith and Deng are really, really good (elite) team defenders.

[Roy H.]

Yeah Big Al/Dwight Howard isn't a neutral match up at all.

It is head to head.  It's certainly not some huge advantage for OKC.  Maybe there's a theoretical advantage, but not in reality.

[fitzhickey]

I think people are forgetting the help defense abilities of two former all defensive 2nd team players in Smith and Deng

[Who]

This is going to be a tough one. I think OKC has an edge with Rose and Howard over Nash and Big Al (even if Roy's stats say otherwise).

And aren't those stats important to consider?

I focused on the last five games so that folks couldn't say I cherry-picked, or was relying on games from many years ago that don't matter.  However, for their careers, Big Al has held D12 to 15.9 points, so it isn't a fluke.

Big Al vs. Howard is neutral.

If you ignore their defense (and rebounding).

Big Al is a major liability on team defense and Dwight Howard is one of the best help + interior defenders in the league ... if not the very best once again next season.

Big Al can score with D-Howard -- heck Big Al is better offensively with his abundance of post moves and superior jump-shooting -- but he cannot match what Dwight Howard gives his team on the other end of the floor (or on the boards).

But isn't most of the defense head-to-head? 

I would say (guess!) as a general guideline, in the league today (different from other eras), that defensive responsibility for a center (as opposed to other positions) is about 70% team defense and only 30% man-to-man defensive sequences.

The difference between center and other positions being the role of defensive anchor (basket protector) and also the lower number of offensive talent at the center position relative to other positions.

If you look or think about the number of plays someone like Kevin Garnett is asked to make as a defensive anchor for Boston showing on help defense coverages vs the number of times he is asked to do something one-on-one defensively with his own check ... the number of help defense sequences far outweighs the number of one-on-one sequences. 70-30 or something like that is just a guess at the difference.

----------------------------------------

Although, that is not quite true in this specific matchup.

One of the reasons for such a large difference in team defense + man defense situations is the low number of centers who are high level offensive threats. In this case, Big Al and D-Howard, they are both 20ppg threats. Two of the best scoring centers in the league. So man-to-man defensive responsibilities a lot higher and closer to 50-50 team D vs man D.

[fitzhickey]

smith would be my preferred rim protector for team D
leaving the oh so deadly Taj Gibson by himself shouldn't hurt that much.
then al can focus on dwight primarily

[Fafnir]

Yeah Big Al/Dwight Howard isn't a neutral match up at all.

It is head to head.  It's certainly not some huge advantage for OKC.  Maybe there's a theoretical advantage, but not in reality.

Team rebounding and team defense are the two attributes that make Howard an all-nba caliber player. I don't think comparing up their H2H PPG and RPG is going to measure that.

Even as bad, for him, of a year as Howard had he had roughly the same defensive impact as KG, and I expect him to be better next year.

Big Al can score with Howard at roughly the same efficiency (or a bit better) due to low turnovers and better foul shooting. But in the other areas of the game its not close.

[Fafnir]

smith would be my preferred rim protector for team D
leaving the oh so deadly Taj Gibson by himself shouldn't hurt that much.
then al can focus on dwight primarily

That'll help on some sets certainly. But putting Big Al into the play with screens and forcing him to help contain Rose is going to be challenging for him to say the least.

[fitzhickey]

Yeah Big Al/Dwight Howard isn't a neutral match up at all.

It is head to head.  It's certainly not some huge advantage for OKC.  Maybe there's a theoretical advantage, but not in reality.

Team rebounding and team defense are the two attributes that make Howard an all-nba caliber player. I don't think comparing up their H2H PPG and RPG is going to measure that.

Even as bad, for him, of a year as Howard had he had roughly the same defensive impact as KG, and I expect him to be better next year.

Big Al can score with Howard at roughly the same efficiency (or a bit better) due to low turnovers and better foul shooting. But in the other areas of the game its not close.

if Big Al can limit dwight to 15 and 10 I would consider this an easy win
there is no way, even with all his ability, dwights team D can stop all these scoring options

[Fafnir]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

[fitzhickey]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

step forward Eric Gordon

and to KC's point how is my huge advantage at 2, 3 and 4 not a difference at all?

[Rondo2287]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

Getting creative, can deng or Jsmoothe defend rose?

[fitzhickey]

smith would be my preferred rim protector for team D
leaving the oh so deadly Taj Gibson by himself shouldn't hurt that much.
then al can focus on dwight primarily

That'll help on some sets certainly. But putting Big Al into the play with screens and forcing him to help contain Rose is going to be challenging for him to say the least.

if al and gordon contain rose as best as anyone can, smith can move to dwight stop easy dunks with his athleticism