2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Golden State(5)

[nickagneta]

Also Minnesotas lack of spacing really affects Lebrons ability to create. Compound that with my interior defense  and rim protection and Minnesota has a hard time scoring. More likely it's a lot if standing around and watching Lebron go iso.

Monta won't allow that. Works fine for me when he starts jacking shots up.

You're right; I think the lack of spacing cuts both ways.  This series is going to have some ugly basketball.

And ugly basketball usually means the better defensive team wins. I think that is Minny here.

[McHales Pits]

Okay - time to reply before Kane slanders my whole team...

Starting Lineup For Series vs GS

1 - Ellis
2 - Bradley
3 - James
4 - Ibaka
5 - Jordan

Strategy vs GS
-Pressure Ball to limit shot clock time in half-court sets
-Isolate and attack Hibbert on offense to draw fouls
-Body up Hibbert

Regarding GS Offense
As we have all seen in the last few seasons, Rondo-led offenses have the tendency to become stagnate when they are unable to get out in transition. When in half-court situations, Rondo generally pounds the ball and looks to make the last pass for the assist. GS has a dangerous pick-and-pop option with Rondo/LMA, but the other options underwhelm me. I don't see how DeRozan fits into this offense, Rush is one-dimensional, Lou Williams and Reggie Jackson are average-at-best, Bargnani is one-dimensional, and Hibbert is primarily a defense-first player. I don't believe that this half-court offense will be able to score enough points to win when Bradley hounds Rondo for the first 8 seconds of the possession and denies their offense a chance to set up with more than 16 seconds on the shot clock.

Regarding GS Defense
Hibbert is a tower and is a solid, young anchor to a defense - but he should not be mistaken for a LeBron stopper. They play different positions, have different skill levels, and are miles apart athletically. Although LeBron has a capable outside shot, I would expect him to isolate Hibbert on pick-and-rolls and drives to the hoop early in an attempt to draw fouls. The depth behind Hibbert is soft and would throw the GS rotation a curveball if Hibbert were to pick up two or three fouls early.

Regarding Minnesota Offense
As in my last matchup, I expect to get some easy baskets purely from turnovers and missed shots that lead to transition. In the half-court set, I plan to go right at Hibbert off-the-pick and off-the-dribble. Sure he may block a few shots, but he is big and not overly athletic which means LeBron, Monta, Ibaka, and Davis should be able to draw some fouls against him. Once he is off the floor, I will continue to drive to the paint to exploit the weak defense of Bargnani, the average defense of LMA, and the inexperience of his two backup centers. I disagree with Kane's statement that Minnesota has no floor spacers - Korver, Battier, Chalmers, Farmar, and James all shot above 40% from three-point range last season. Ibaka and Davis are great mid-range shooters. Bradley shot nearly 50/40 the season prior to having a double-shoulder surgery. When the GS defense starts to collapse to protect the paint is when the ball gets kicked out for momentum changing three pointers.

Regarding Minnesota Defense
As previously mentioned, I expect Bradley to play over 30 MPG in this series to make life for Rondo as tough as possible and to limit the amount of time GS has to set up their offense in half-court sets. I expect Ibaka and James to cover LMA and contest every shot he takes. I expect Jordan, Davis, Ibaka, and Stiemsma to body up Hibbert to keep him away from the offensive glass and not make it easy for him to get in position for easy close shots. Before I am criticized for Davis' height compared to Hibbert's - remember that Davis wields 285 pounds and is lower to the ground. If Davis can limit Howard, he can certainly limit Hibbert.

[Kane3387]

Also Minnesotas lack of spacing really affects Lebrons ability to create. Compound that with my interior defense  and rim protection and Minnesota has a hard time scoring. More likely it's a lot if standing around and watching Lebron go iso.

Monta won't allow that. Works fine for me when he starts jacking shots up.

You're right; I think the lack of spacing cuts both ways.  This series is going to have some ugly basketball.

And ugly basketball usually means the better defensive team wins. I think that is Minny here.

I don't think Deandre or Monta are good defenders. They're lazy and lack intelligence. Monta plays passing lanes and that about it. DJ tries to block everything and it leads him to leave his feet.

Derozan is a guy you can hate on for defense but the other four are top notch. I think these defenses are even.

I also have Rondo to control pace and I will employ the hack a Jordan technique to break any kind of rhythm Minnesota might have in the fourth qtr.

My interior play in the end gives me the edge. A lot of ugly basketball also means more missed shots and more rebounds. Both teams can board, but Hibbert and Aldridge are much better at second chance scoring. Rondo is terrific at offensive rebounding too and getting others looks.

I believe Rondo is ultimate the X factor. LeBron is the best player in the series. He will be in every series, but Rondo has shown on several occasions he can impact and dominate a series to almost the same level as LBJ. He's done it in series with LBJ in both 2010 and 2012.

Rondo is the second best player in the series. Aldridge the third. Hibbert the fourth. I think James is being asked to do a little too much and doesn't have the help he needs to overcome Rajon, LA, and Big Roy.

[fairweatherfan]

Also Minnesotas lack of spacing really affects Lebrons ability to create. Compound that with my interior defense  and rim protection and Minnesota has a hard time scoring. More likely it's a lot if standing around and watching Lebron go iso.

Monta won't allow that. Works fine for me when he starts jacking shots up.

You're right; I think the lack of spacing cuts both ways.  This series is going to have some ugly basketball.

And ugly basketball usually means the better defensive team wins. I think that is Minny here.

This is my inclination; I think Minnesota's lack of spacing will hurt them down the line, but I'm not sold that Golden State has the personnel to take advantage of it.

[Kane3387]

Regarding GS Offense
As we have all seen in the last few seasons, Rondo-led offenses have the tendency to become stagnate when they are unable to get out in transition. When in half-court situations, Rondo generally pounds the ball and looks to make the last pass for the assist. GS has a dangerous pick-and-pop option with Rondo/LMA, but the other options underwhelm me. I don't see how DeRozan fits into this offense, Rush is one-dimensional, Lou Williams and Reggie Jackson are average-at-best, Bargnani is one-dimensional, and Hibbert is primarily a defense-first player. I don't believe that this half-court offense will be able to score enough points to win when Bradley hounds Rondo for the first 8 seconds of the possession and denies their offense a chance to set up with more than 16 seconds on the shot clock.

Lou Williams was a 6th man of the year two years ago. He's an abover average bench player. Rondo held the ball often waiting on Ray Allen to curl off screens. In the pick and pop game he was fantastic with LG. He will be with LA. When he had Shaq, Rondo was great at feeding him for open baskets. The same goes with LA. Derozan is being defended by Monta Ellis. An undersized and lazy defender. Back cuts ala AB will be an effective way to get him involved.

Again in reference to AB. As your PG I think you will be wearing him out and his defense will suffer as a result. Just look at the Knicks series with Felton.

Regarding GS Defense
Hibbert is a tower and is a solid, young anchor to a defense - but he should not be mistaken for a LeBron stopper. They play different positions, have different skill levels, and are miles apart athletically. Although LeBron has a capable outside shot, I would expect him to isolate Hibbert on pick-and-rolls and drives to the hoop early in an attempt to draw fouls. The depth behind Hibbert is soft and would throw the GS rotation a curveball if Hibbert were to pick up two or three fouls early.

You have no one in the post or on the perimeter from a big man perspective to make Roy work on D. No one on your team can score like Bosh outside James. But hes at SF and constantly on the perimeter. I already provided evidence that no one deters Lebron at the rim like Roy.

If he was to get in foul trouble I already displayed LA's talents as an interior defender on the first page. I also have a plethora of 7 footers to come in and do nothing but focus on protecting the basket. However you really have no inside presence to draw fouls on Roy.

As in my last matchup, I expect to get some easy baskets purely from turnovers and missed shots that lead to transition. In the half-court set, I plan to go right at Hibbert off-the-pick and off-the-dribble. Sure he may block a few shots, but he is big and not overly athletic which means LeBron, Monta, Ibaka, and Davis should be able to draw some fouls against him. Once he is off the floor, I will continue to drive to the paint to exploit the weak defense of Bargnani, the average defense of LMA, and the inexperience of his two backup centers. I disagree with Kane's statement that Minnesota has no floor spacers - Korver, Battier, Chalmers, Farmar, and James all shot above 40% from three-point range last season. Ibaka and Davis are great mid-range shooters. Bradley shot nearly 50/40 the season prior to having a double-shoulder surgery. When the GS defense starts to collapse to protect the paint is when the ball gets kicked out for momentum changing three pointers. 

How much are they playing? Who are you taking out to get these guys in? I hope Lebron bails me out by shooting threes all game.

As previously mentioned, I expect Bradley to play over 30 MPG in this series to make life for Rondo as tough as possible and to limit the amount of time GS has to set up their offense in half-court sets. I expect Ibaka and James to cover LMA and contest every shot he takes. I expect Jordan, Davis, Ibaka, and Stiemsma to body up Hibbert to keep him away from the offensive glass and not make it easy for him to get in position for easy close shots. Before I am criticized for Davis' height compared to Hibbert's - remember that Davis wields 285 pounds and is lower to the ground. If Davis can limit Howard, he can certainly limit Hibbert.

AB at pg is a mistake. But go ahead. He will get tired guarding a PG wizard like Rondo and being full court pressed when he brings it up. Asking LEBron to guard LA will be asking alot considering all the pressure there is on him offensively. Big Baby will get hooked shot to death by Roy.

And who is your 4th qtr Center?

[Kane3387]

Also Minnesotas lack of spacing really affects Lebrons ability to create. Compound that with my interior defense  and rim protection and Minnesota has a hard time scoring. More likely it's a lot if standing around and watching Lebron go iso.

Monta won't allow that. Works fine for me when he starts jacking shots up.

You're right; I think the lack of spacing cuts both ways.  This series is going to have some ugly basketball.

And ugly basketball usually means the better defensive team wins. I think that is Minny here.

This is my inclination; I think Minnesota's lack of spacing will hurt them down the line, but I'm not sold that Golden State has the personnel to take advantage of it.

Again my argument is look at the real life Lebron team and real life Hibbert team. Miami had an advantage with James at PF. That is not the case here. They also had superior talent in Wade and Bosh and were still taken to 7 games.

Hibbert played on a team with horrible spacing.

George - .327
Hill - .358
Stephenson - .281
Hibbert - .000
West - .000

Those were the 3 pt shooting averages for Indiana. That is worse spacing then I have. And they took Lebron to 7. Theyre a worse team then GS and Miami is a better one then Minnesota.

Rondo can find people and get them shots. He can get people looks they don't otherwise get and put them in position to score.

Minnesota not having a true PG makes life against Rajon Rondo insanely difficult.

[Kane3387]

Also Minnesotas lack of spacing really affects Lebrons ability to create. Compound that with my interior defense  and rim protection and Minnesota has a hard time scoring. More likely it's a lot if standing around and watching Lebron go iso.

Monta won't allow that. Works fine for me when he starts jacking shots up.

You're right; I think the lack of spacing cuts both ways.  This series is going to have some ugly basketball.

Ultimately I think the superstar players will be the reason a team wins. Mnnesota has one and don't even have another All-Star amazingly. They have the best player though.

But this is like Cleveland again. With Nate McMillan as coach who was famous in Portland for playing slow. He's just like Mike Brown. No fast paced system. All defense. Isolation basketball with Brandon Roy.

Whereas the best next three players are all on GS and one of them is Rajon Rondo. I say that he because he loves competing with James.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndyfsS0bFK8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLBsgfvhcho

[Kane3387]

McMillan is a poor fit for this personnel. You say you'll get out and run and get easy baskets. He has never coached that way. He's exactly Mike Brown.

McMillan’s teams play a very slow, controlled kind of style — this isn’t going to be ShowTime.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/23/report-pistons-interested-in-nate-mcmillan-as-coach/

[fitzhickey]

Also Minnesotas lack of spacing really affects Lebrons ability to create. Compound that with my interior defense  and rim protection and Minnesota has a hard time scoring. More likely it's a lot if standing around and watching Lebron go iso.

Monta won't allow that. Works fine for me when he starts jacking shots up.

You're right; I think the lack of spacing cuts both ways.  This series is going to have some ugly basketball.

And ugly basketball usually means the better defensive team wins. I think that is Minny here.

This is my inclination; I think Minnesota's lack of spacing will hurt them down the line, but I'm not sold that Golden State has the personnel to take advantage of it.

Again my argument is look at the real life Lebron team and real life Hibbert team. Miami had an advantage with James at PF. That is not the case here. They also had superior talent in Wade and Bosh and were still taken to 7 games.

Hibbert played on a team with horrible spacing.

George - .327
Hill - .358
Stephenson - .281
Hibbert - .000
West - .000

Those were the 3 pt shooting averages for Indiana. That is worse spacing then I have. And they took Lebron to 7. Theyre a worse team then GS and Miami is a better one then Minnesota.

Rondo can find people and get them shots. He can get people looks they don't otherwise get and put them in position to score.

Minnesota not having a true PG makes life against Rajon Rondo insanely difficult.

disagree with your last statement regarding life being hard for minny
Bradley will D rondo and Lebron is an amazing point forward.

[fairweatherfan]

Hibbert played on a team with horrible spacing.

George - .327
Hill - .358
Stephenson - .281
Hibbert - .000
West - .000

Those were the 3 pt shooting averages for Indiana. That is worse spacing then I have. And they took Lebron to 7. Theyre a worse team then GS and Miami is a better one then Minnesota.

Are those averages from the Miami series?  The season averages were a good bit higher:

George: .362
Hill: .368
Stephenson: .330


I think you're making a fair argument, but it's misleading to equate your team's season averages, which came at a lower intensity and against a broad range of defenses, with another team's averages in a much smaller sample against an elite D in the playoffs. 

I'd expect a top defense to lower your guys' shooting numbers, just as Miami's defense hurt Indiana's shooting in the real NBA.

[Kane3387]

Hibbert played on a team with horrible spacing.

George - .327
Hill - .358
Stephenson - .281
Hibbert - .000
West - .000

Those were the 3 pt shooting averages for Indiana. That is worse spacing then I have. And they took Lebron to 7. Theyre a worse team then GS and Miami is a better one then Minnesota.

Are those averages from the Miami series?  The season averages were a good bit higher:

George: .362
Hill: .368
Stephenson: .330


I think you're making a fair argument, but it's misleading to equate your team's season averages, which came at a lower intensity and against a broad range of defenses, with another team's averages in a much smaller sample against an elite D in the playoffs. 

I'd expect a top defense to lower your guys' shooting numbers, just as Miami's defense hurt Indiana's shooting in the real NBA.

Season

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/ind/indiana-pacers

[Kane3387]

When it comes to scoring Rondo is gonna be able to get guys points.

LeBron knows.

MIAMI — LeBron James said Thursday that Rajon Rondo is no Derrick Rose. He meant it as a compliment.

That became evident moments later when the Miami Heat forward compared the Celtics point guard to NFL legend Barry Sanders.

Asked to define what it takes to at least attempt to defend Rondo, James said it is an experience that transcends typical NBA defense.

"For a point guard like Rondo there's not many plays," James said. "It's crazy. He doesn't get many plays called for him, but he makes all the right plays, if that makes any sense.

"There's a lot of point guards, like Derrick Rose, he gets a lot of plays called for him, a lot of pick-and-roll sets, he comes off pin-downs or floppy actions. But Rondo, he's either running pick-and-rolls, or he's improvising on the break."

"You try to meet him before he gets his speed up," James said. "But you don't want to be up on him too much because he's so fast. He'll run around anybody in this league. You have to be aggressive but you also have to be smart.

"He's like Barry Sanders. You wouldn't want to run up on him all crazy in the backfield back in the day, either. He'll spin you around and get a touchdown. So you've got to be smart with it."

A ton of respect there.

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-05-05/sports/sfl-miami-heat-rajon-rondo-s050511_1_rajon-rondo-lebron-james-celtics

[fairweatherfan]

Season

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/ind/indiana-pacers

Well, now I'm just confused in general - Basketball Reference has totally different numbers:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=georgpa01&y1=2013&p2=hillge01&y2=2013&p3=stephla01&y3=2013

Anybody have any idea why the numbers are so different?  Does BR not count end-of-quarter chucks or something?

EDIT: Figured it out - Kane's link is for the postseason, not the regular season.  Bigger sample size than one series but the other criticisms are still valid - playoff shooting is often lower due to facing better defenses playing harder.

[McHales Pits]

I am not sure why everyone believes Minnesota's floor spacing is so poor. James, Battier,and Korver - who all play significant minutes in my rotation - shot over 40 % from 3-pt land last season. CJ Miles and Farmar - who will get a few minutes here and there - also shot over (Farmar's case) or near (Miles 0.387) 40 %. Bradley shot near 40 % in the season prior to have both shoulders operated on. Both Ibaka and Glen Davis are proficient mid-range shooters. Even Crowder - who will be my 13th man - can knock down threes at a respectable clip (0.320).

Jordan has no range, but that's not his job. His job is to finish at the rim, protect the rim, and rebound.

Stiemsma is my backup center and is there to play defense, body up, and provide 5 fouls. And for the record, he is capable of stepping out and dropping in a 8-12 foot jumper.

It seems to me that this idea that Minnesota doesn't have floor spacers is due to a bias against Monta Ellis. Monta does not shoot a great percentage from range, but that's not his strong suit, nor his role on this team. With all of the spacing I do have, it opens up countless lanes for him to slash into to get to the rim.

[McHales Pits]

In response to Kane's numerous comments...

-Bradley will be guarding PGs, not playing one on offense. James, Ellis, and Chalmers are Minnesota's primary ball-handlers

-I laid out my general rotation in the Presser thread. Korver, Battier, Chalmers get roughly 16-20 MPG.

-Nate McMillan was chosen as the coach because of his disciplined mentality, attention to defense, and his reputation of being a well-rounded player. The roster he coached in real-life Portland or almost-coached in Detroit were not defensive-minded teams capable of forcing turnovers and running the floor like the one I have constructed in Minnesota.

-Howard didn't find hook shots over Davis to be that easy and he is a superior player to Hibbert in every facet of the game (minus FTs).

-I'm comfortable giving Jordan some minutes early in the 4th, but to avoid the stigma he provides - I would say Ibaka, Davis, and Stiemsma will collect the remaining 8-10 4th quarter center minutes.

-While I don't think Ellis is a lock-down defender one-on-one, I think you underestimate his defense. His passing lane defense pairs well with Avery's on-ball defense. He is an elite athlete and has the ability to move laterally to stay in front of players. He possesses a basketball IQ capable of placing him in the top-5 steals category in NBA regularly over the last few seasons. Stealing the basketball is all about anticipation and timing so I'm not sure your low BB IQ argument will stick.