So, with the easy question out of the way, on to the broader strategy. First, Cleveland is a very similar team to Orlando, with lots of older veterans and a focus on D. They're a fine team and a tough matchup for anyone. But here's what separates us from them, starting with the intangibles and D:
Championship and Playoff Experience: The Cavs seem to think this is an advantage for them - and against some teams it might be. But not when facing Orlando. Kobe, of course, has more rings than the entire Cleveland roster.
But in addition, we also have far more players who have made deep playoff runs. 8 of our 9 top rotation guys, as well as Ronnie Brewer, have been rotation players in a conference finals. Among Cleveland's top 9, only KG and TA can make that claim. Despite similar age breakdowns, our top 9 has, on average, 18 more games of playoff experiences than Cleveland's top 9. We didn't get those extra appearances by just making it to the playoffs, we got them by knowing how to win when we got there.
Perimeter defense: With most of the Cavs' top players up front, it's essential that Ty Lawson play well to create opportunities. Unfortunately, Lawson is known for struggling against longer PGs, and Hill is no exception. Head-to-head with Hill Lawson
has only scored 9 pts on 39% shooting with 4 assists. Only twice has Lawson scored 15 or more pts vs Hill.
We expect George to give Ty fits all series long, and indirectly reduce the quality looks Horford and KG will get by disrupting the offensive sets before they even begin. And if Lawson's ineffective, who becomes the primary tablesetter for Cleveland? Crawford is a chucker who, as noted below, has consistently struggled in the playoffs. The only other option is a 34-year-old Steve Blake. Take out Ty and the Cavs' offense, already not their strong suit, sputters to a halt.
"Tony Allen, Kobe-stopper" is a myth: In 10 playoff matchups,
Kobe has outscored TA 26.4-3, with 7 reb, 4 ast and 2.5 stl. Not exactly getting shut down there. Now, you may be saying "That's not fair! Tony barely played in a lot of those games!" But that's precisely the point. TA didn't play because his defense on Kobe wasn't nearly enough to overcome his offensive deficiencies.
It's a little silly to see Allen as some kind of Kobe-nullifier when a team with the opportunity to use him that way in the most high-stakes environment possible passed on the chance - twice! - to use him in that role. And even in the regular season when they matched up more often, Kobe still had a huge edge. Unless we want to pretend Tony's a sharply different player now, there's just not much of an argument there.
Interior defense: We already have Hill clamping down on Lawson, but he's coupled with an elite P+R defender on the other end, Omer Asik. Asik will match up with Horford and prevent penetration by Lawson and rolls to the basket by Al, forcing him into lower percentage midrange jump shots. Al will also have tremendous trouble posting against the bigger Asik, one of the stoutest post defenders in the league. KG is no longer a pick and roll threat, or much of a post guy, and Millsap is mobile enough to challenge the occasional pick and pop action, and force KG to do his work in the post. Already stymied on the perimeter, Cleveland will have trouble feeding its talented bigs as well.
Balanced disruption. With Hill smothering Lawson, Kobe and Carter/MWP attacking passing lanes, and Asik and Millsap forcing Horford and KG to play in their lowest-percentage areas (midrange and post, respectively), absolutely nothing is going to come easy for Cleveland on offense, which is already their weak suit.
Offense strategy to come...