I think Garnett is going to have a fairly big drop-off next year. I am expecting him to average like 12ppg and 7rpg for the Brooklyn Nets.
1. I need some kind of argument to support this, otherwise it's just an unbased wild statement. KG has never played a season with the minutes and B2B restriction he's going to have next year. For all we know, he could improve from last year because of this added rest.
2. Even if he does drop off, there isn't a shred of doubt in my mind that he'll still show up huge in the playoffs like he did last year.
It is not entirely relevant to your team. It is specific to the Brooklyn Nets. Different team, different role. Partially relevant I suppose.
(1) Playing most of his minutes at PF
(2) I think KG's defense will drop-off considerably at four. I thought there was a fair bit of decline last season and it'll really show up now that he has to defend fours again. Doesn't have enough quickness.
(3) Offensively, he'll be playing alongside three high usage offensive players in Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson. Oh and Pierce. Forgot Pierce.
(4) Defending PFs will leave KG further away from the rim on rebounds and I don't think he has the physical capacity to rebound outside of his area anymore so I think he'll get less rebounds per game too.
On your team,
(1) He'll play both PF/C. Mostly center on defense to avoid areas where he is more vulnerable. He'll play center when C.Landry is in the game on both ends. Playing center on defense will help him a lot both on defense and in terms of rebounding.
(2) A more balanced offensive outlook mainly out of necessity because you don't have the shot-creators that Brooklyn have but that means KG will be more involved with his high post play a focal point of your team.
(3) Horford is a much better fit offensively next to KG than B.Lopez. Horford is much more mobile (v.important) and has a better high post game on offense. Lopez more of a plodder. Stays closer to the hoop. More stagnant offense. Less ball movement. Much easier to defend. Equals less good percentage FGAs for KG in Brooklyn. More and better quality attempts in Cleveland.
I am thinking 14/8 for Cleveland which is pretty much the same as the 15/8 he did in Boston. Small drop-off defensively as KG slows down some more.
If you drop him to 25 minutes -- did you say that earlier in the thread? -- then more like 10ppg and 5rpg.