The other thing is that Elrod's article doesn't address how these teams acquired their franchise superstars. I'd guess that the vast majority got them through the draft, and almost all of the remainder acquired them by trading lottery-level talents that they acquired in the draft. Still, the fantasy that the Celtics could sign a free agent or duplicate the Kevin Garnett trade, without a top pick in hand, will persist.
The "fantasy" exists because, by my rough count, close to half of the players in the "top players" lists since 2000 are outside of your "vast majority".
Yet still the vast majority that weren't acquired in the draft were acquired by trading draft assets.
Lakers --> I don't think the Celtics can hope to emulate the Lakers, due to a variety of factors.
Spurs --> Duncan
Pistons --> You have to get very lucky to assemble a collection of talent like that and have the more-talented teams run into bad luck / implode; I also think the new CBA militates against collecting multiple stars like that Pistons team did.
Celtics --> Pierce; Allen was acquired w/ the #5 pick; Garnett never agrees to the trade if not for Pierce + Allen.
Mavs --> Dirk
Heat --> LeBron + Bosh never come to Miami if Dwyane Wade isn't there already.
That's just the championship teams, of course.
Lakers --> Lakers won initial titles with Kobe as a key ingredient, however that's pretty much irrelevant because they never would have won those titles without Shaq, who (IIRC) was signed in free agency. The second run of titles wasn't achived until Gasol, Odom, Artest were added.
Spurs --> Duncan is one valid (and very rare) example of a team that won a title shortly after drafting a top prospect. It is the exception rather than the rule.
Pistons --> Bad luck? The Piston's were one of the elite teams in the league all season long and were one of the best defensive teams in recent history. Today's equivalent of their roster would be something like John Wall, JR Smith, Nicholas Batum, Lemarcus Aldridge, Omar Asik. Not a single superstar, but a couple of fringe All-Stars. They knocked off the Lakers Super-team which was about today's equivalent of the new-look Nets or Heat. Luck had nothing to do with it, that was a great team.
Celtics --> Pierce was drafted by Boston...about 10 years prior! The Celtics went through years of mediocrity with Pierce (their superstar draft pick) on the roster, and it wasn't until Ray and KG came along (via trades) that Boston became a serious contender. Ray's draft status is irrelevant...he had been though 2 or 3 teams before coming to Boston and his value was well known.
Mavs --> Dirk came to Dallas via the draft yes...but (as with Pierce in Boston) he was in Dallas for about a decade before they win that title. Once other guys (like JJ, Chandler, Terry, Kidd) were added it put them over the edge.
Heat --> Wade was drafted in Miami, the heat were garbage unti they managed to get Shaq, who was still in the last year or two of his prime dominance. Wade was the #2 player on that team, and after Shaq left they again fell back to mediocrity until they managed to pull Lebron and Bosh in (both via free agency, not by trading picks).
Truth is, there is really only one single case I can think of in the past decade where a team has drafted an elite player and won a title within a couple of years withing adding any other elite players - that was San Antonio with Duncan.
The Thunder are the next closest as they have made the finals through draft success, but it took them several consecutive successful drafts (and a LOT of luck with health, etc) to achieve that, and they still have no title.
Take a look at the teams who drafted in the top three for the past 10 years:
2012
1. New Orleans Hornets (Anthony Davis)
2. Charlotte Bobcats (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist)
3. Washington Wizards (Bradley Beal)
2011
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (Kyrie Irving)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (Derrick Williams)
3. Utah Jazz (Enes Kanter)
2010
1. Washington Wizards (John Wall)
2. Philadelphia 76ers (Evan Turner)
3. New Jersey Nets (Derrick Favors)
2009
1. Los Angeles Clippers (Blake Griffin)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (Hasheem Thabeet)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (James Harden)
2008
1. Chicago Bulls (Derrick Rose)
2. Miami Heat (Michael Beasley)
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (O.J. Mayo)
2007
1. Portland Trail Blazers (Greg Oden)
2. Seattle Supersonics (Kevin Durant)
3. Atlanta Hawks (Al Horford)
2006
1. Toronto Raptors (Andrea Bargnani)
2. Chicago Bulls (LaMarcus Aldridge)
3. Charlotte Bobcats (Adam Morrison)
2005
1. Milwaukee Bucks (Andrew Bogut)
2. Atlanta Hawks (Marvin Williams)
3. Utah Jazz (Deron Williams)
2004
1. Orlando Magic (Dwight Howard)
2. Charlotte Bobcats (Emeka Okafor)
3. Chicago Bulls (Ben Gordon)
2003
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (LeBron James)
2. Detroit Pistons (Darko Milicic)
3. Denver Nuggets (Carmelo Anthony)
Out of the past 10 years there have been 20 different teams which have drafted in the top 3:
Charlotte Bobcats (three times)
Chicago Bulls (three times)
Washington Wizards (two times)
Cleveland Cavaliers (two times)
Minnesota Timberwolves (two times)
Oklahoma City Thunder (Two times including Seattle/Durant)
Utah Jazz (two times)
Atlanta Hawks (two times)
New Orleans Hornets
Philadelphia 76ers
New Jersey Nets
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Portland Trail Blazers
Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee Bucks
Orlando Magic
Detroit Pistons
Denver Nuggets
Facts:
* Only 1/20 teams has won a championhip (Miami)
* Only 2/20 teams have made the NBA Finals (Miami, OKC)
* Only 4/20 teams made it past the first round of the playoffs last season (Miami, Chicago, Seattle/OKC, Memphis)
* Only 9/20 teams made the playoffs at all last season
This history suggests to me that if this year's Celtics are bad enough to get a top 3 lottery pick, we probably will not have a serious playoff team for at least the next 5 (maybe 10) years.
Our future first round picks from Brooklyn, LAC and ourselves already have value. Worst-case scenario (from a draft perspective) we end up a fringe playoff team and choosing at around 12-20 n the draft. That gives us the potential to draft players like Kylly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley - guys who all have pretty solid trade value right now, epecially as part of a package. If we can draft 3 or 4 guys of that calibre over the next few seasons then that potentially gives us 6-7 young, talented players who we could either:
1. Use to fill holes on our team
2, Package in a sign-and-trade for a star player entering free agency
3. Package in a trade for a high lottery pick
4. Package in return for cap relief that could be used to sign star players
All of those options are IMO better than gambling everything on a lottery pick, and one of them requires having to endure the unplesant nature of being a losing team.
But we don't have a star player already in place like your list above.
All the teams you listed such as Lakers, Dirk, Celtics etc had a top 10 NBA player on their squads already.
We don't have a top 10 player. We have a player who might be in the top 25-30 players in the NBA- and he isn't a scorer.
How do we acquire the guy that Shaq wants to go play with?
Tell us?
Your list shows how hard it is to win a championship in the NBA- it highlights how easy it is to be mediocre even with a top 10 NBA player.
We don't even have a top 20 NBA player. You say 'don't gamble everything on a draft pick that has a slim chance of working out'.
All roads to a championship have a slim chance of working out. You seem to think the odds of signing the pieces to make us a true contender like a combo of Aldridge and Carmelo Anthony are better than drafting Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker or Julius Randle.
What are the real odds of us signing two guys that are good enough to take us past the Heat, Bulls, Nets, Pacers, OKC, Memphis, Houston etc in the next 2 seasons while Rondo is on the Celtics and locked in?
Are they higher than 10 percent?
We have some nice assets and young guys but our best player is a 27 year old point guard that can't shoot, coming off major ACL surgery. We need a BOATLOAD of help.
We need at least two more All Star Caliber players to pair with Rondo.
Again, look at your list of teams above who won championships and other than the Pistons-which one doesn't have a top 10 pick they drafted themselves? Who was then joined by another top 10 player or All Star Level wing or big man?
Second question is where do you think the next NBA superstar is coming from?
The next platinum/gold level player in the NBA to reach the Hall of Fame and win multiple championships?
Where do you think the next gold level guy like Howard, Wade in his prime or Paul Pierce in his prime is coming from?
He's coming from a top 5-10 pick in the NBA draft.
Whoever drafts him still needs to help him with smart roster decisions but if they do it right they should be contending for 10 seasons.
You're argument is completely ironic because you want to trade for an NBA superstar(which no teams will give up), and when you can't trade for him you want to sign him as a free agent.
Yet to attempt to draft one is completely out of the question and the odds of that happening are just not realistic. You think the odds of pulling the crap that the Rockets pulled with Howard are better- They'll still have a hard time contending in the West. Howard already took the Magic to the finals once- they just never put enough pieces around him so he eventually left. Same with Lebron. All superstars need help in some form, but to get that help you first need a legitimate superstar which the Boston Celtics currently do not have and will not get until they acquire such a star through the NBA draft.
This upcoming draft appears to be the best opportunity in the last 10 years to acquire such a player and build a true title contender with a franchise changer.
Rajon Rondo is the kind of guy you need to support legitimate triple threat NBA stars on their way to a championship. He is the kind of guy that supports the Kevin Garnetts and Paul Pierces. He's like Ray Allen in that he's an extremely talented star with an extremely valuable skill set for any contending team- but you do not build a team around a point guard that can't shoot- you do whatever you can to get your hands on the player or prospect with the best chance to carry you towards and NBA title.
We don't know if Wiggins or Parker or Randle will be even 25% of their hype, but in the small chance they do reach or exceed their hype and their teams give them the right support cast, they'll be leading their teams through the playoffs as legitimate contenders for years to come.