Author Topic: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING ENDS 8:00PM EST TONIGHT  (Read 1001221 times)

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Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4260 on: September 06, 2013, 05:24:30 PM »

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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Much of Batum's "averageness" last season was a byproduct of being thrust into an impossible workload. He played a full 8 minutes more than the previous season, and was responsible for basically every fathomable role you can imagine on a team: defensive anchor, playmaker, perimeter threat, post player, so on. I like Thaddeus Young but he has nothing on Batum. Batum is one of the most versatile and underrated small forwards in the league.

Here are Batum and Young per 36 at age 23, two seasons ago, when Batum wasn't so worn out. Although worth noting Young's minutes similarly jumped between 11-12 and 12-13.

16.4 PTS 45.1 FG% 5.4 REB 1.7 AST 1.1 STL 1.2 BLK 11.2 TOV% 112 ORtg 1.4 DWS Batum
16.6 PTS 50.7 FG% 6.7 REB 1.5 AST 1.2 STL 0.8 BLK 6.8 TOV% 111 ORtg 2.9 DWS Young

It's just that Batum's best performances are so good they tend to stand out in people's minds.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4261 on: September 06, 2013, 05:32:06 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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absoletly i factored in "fit and depth"....u think i vote blindly or was naive?  injuries factored in multiple ways. whether they will be healthy to start season, severity of injury, injury prone history, and the quality player thats injured and their role on a team (someone that is a focal point of the team's success having an injury is more impactful than a smaller piece to a larger puzzle)

Thanks for the reply. There were a few rankings that appeared to be a bit inconsistent with what you were saying so I just had to make sure that legitimate thought was put into your lists. Obviously it was simply a case of differing perspectives. Thanks for the effort you've put in to the league!

Here are Batum and Young at 23, two seasons ago, when Batum wasn't so worn out. Although worth noting Young's minutes similarly jumped between 11-12 and 12-13.

16.4 PTS 45.1 FG% 5.4 REB 1.7 AST 1.1 STL 1.2 BLK 11.2 TOV% 112 ORtg 1.4 DWS Batum
16.6 PTS 50.7 FG% 6.7 REB 1.5 AST 1.2 STL 0.8 BLK 6.8 TOV% 111 ORtg 2.9 DWS Young

It's just that Batum's classic games tend to jump out in people's minds.

Inconsistency is definitely Batum's biggest weakness right now, but it's definitely not something I'm worried about. Let's keep in mind that this is a guy who not only had to transition into the NBA, but had to do so being thrust into a multitude of roles in his team thanks to his versatility. Young is a solid post player and rebounder, but he doesn't have the perimeter range, playmaking, or defense to be the all-around player Batum is.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4262 on: September 06, 2013, 05:33:38 PM »

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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i put in a lot of time breaking things down and thought into my vote.  u guys don't like my vote, too bad. u have a legit question or problem....pm me

Hey, don't take it the wrong way, most people that get involved, even if they're not GMs, are willing to talk some basketball. For instance I like Hinrich but I prefer my guy Ridnour. I'm willing to bet Love will appear in more games in 13-14 than 40 in Februrary, Steve Nash. I'd love to knock Eric Gordon's injury history some more, if it helps me and my guy Danny Granger. But I don't want to offend. (Usually.)

Of course, everybody appreciates the vote, myself included. Thanks for taking the time.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4263 on: September 06, 2013, 05:42:03 PM »

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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Here are Batum and Young per 36 at 23, two seasons ago, when Batum wasn't so worn out. Although worth noting Young's minutes similarly jumped between 11-12 and 12-13.

16.4 PTS 45.1 FG% 5.4 REB 1.7 AST 1.1 STL 1.2 BLK 11.2 TOV% 112 ORtg 1.4 DWS Batum
16.6 PTS 50.7 FG% 6.7 REB 1.5 AST 1.2 STL 0.8 BLK 6.8 TOV% 111 ORtg 2.9 DWS Young

It's just that Batum's classic games tend to jump out in people's minds.

Inconsistency is definitely Batum's biggest weakness right now, but it's definitely not something I'm worried about. Let's keep in mind that this is a guy who not only had to transition into the NBA, but had to do so being thrust into a multitude of roles in his team thanks to his versatility. Young is a solid post player and rebounder, but he doesn't have the perimeter range, playmaking, or defense to be the all-around player Batum is.

I agree about Batum's range and playmaking but the net gain offensively is a wash because Young finishes better and avoids turnovers and clanking long twos. You'll also note that in Nic's best season he and Thadd had nearly identical assist averages.

And defensively, Young posts nearly identical STOCK #s and scores consistently better in the various defensive metrics available. Counterpoint?

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4264 on: September 06, 2013, 05:46:50 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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I agree about Batum's range and playmaking. Although you'll note that in Nic's best season he and Thadd had nearly identical assist averages.

But defensively, Young posts nearly identical STOCK #s and scores consistently better in the various defensive metrics available. Counterpoint?

I'm not seeing a season where Thaddeus eclipses 2 assists per game, let alone 4. Furthermore, I'm not sure what stocks have to do with actual defensive ability, but if you are going to use them, I don't see a season where Thad Young has posted both 1+ steal and block, which is more impressive than simply racking about 2 in one of those categories IMO. As for defensive metrics, like I've discussed in a lengthy debate with Roy, the only one I really trust is Synergy, and I even have a few conditions with that. However, Synergy puts Batum and Young as defensive equals, but keep in mind that Batum gets tougher defensive assignments, covers more positions, and has to expend energy on a lot more facets of the game.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4265 on: September 06, 2013, 05:54:27 PM »

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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I agree about Batum's range and playmaking. Although you'll note that in Nic's best season he and Thadd had nearly identical assist averages.

But defensively, Young posts nearly identical STOCK #s and scores consistently better in the various defensive metrics available. Counterpoint?

I'm not seeing a season where Thaddeus eclipses 2 assists per game, let alone 4. Furthermore, I'm not sure what stocks have to do with actual defensive ability, but if you are going to use them, I don't see a season where Thad Young has posted both 1+ steal and block, which is more impressive than simply racking about 2 in one of those categories IMO. As for defensive metrics, like I've discussed in a lengthy debate with Roy, the only one I really trust is Synergy, and I even have a few conditions with that. However, Synergy puts Batum and Young as defensive equals, but keep in mind that Batum gets tougher defensive assignments, covers more positions, and has to expend energy on a lot more facets of the game.

Thaddeus didn't average over 2 assists but neither did Batum. Nic also turned the ball over almost twice as often. I went back a season for comparison's sake, to give some weight to your argument that Nic played too many minutes in 12-13 and struggled. But Young and Batum's #s are even more similar at 23 than at 24, where Nic posted 4+ assists per but Young otherwise outplayed Nic.

Agree that none of the defensive metrics are definitive, but I'm generally skeptical of any argument that can't find any statistical support. PPP, Defensive Rating, DWS all rate Young as equal or better defensively because he is Batum's equal or better on that end. As for versatility, wouldn't you rather have a guy that defends two positions well than three positions not so well? Also, Young has been drawing the 76ers toughest assignments since Iguodala was shipped to Denver.

EDIT - I mention STOCKS because I figure it's were Batum rates out well. He forces turnovers and blocks shots, he doesn't really lock anybody down.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4266 on: September 06, 2013, 06:11:16 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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West Playoff teams in no particular order:
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
OKC Thunder
GS Warriors
Houston Rockets
Portland Trailblazers
San Antonio Spurs

This is not my final decision so if your team is not up there you can try to convince me on why your team should be in the playoffs.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4267 on: September 06, 2013, 06:13:02 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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If Batum's defense was scaled down to where he'd guard SG/SFs he matches up well with, I'm willing to bet he'd put up numbers better than Thad. Blazers have Batum defend 3+ positions out of necessity; outside of Matthews, who also happens to be a SG/SF defender, the Blazers didn't have any other plus defenders at PG/PF - Aldridge primarily guarded centers, although I may be wrong. The Portland team as a whole was a bottom 5 defensive team though.

Any time you can successfully lock down Kobe Bryant in your rookie year, you can lock down anybody in my eyes. Again, if Batum didn't have to divert so much attention to other areas of the game, I'm sure he would have a lot more appealing defensive stats. Just being on a better defensive team that doesn't rank bottom 5 would be a plus (in case you're wondering, Philly was middle of the pack at 15th). However, at this point, my argument becomes more subjective than anything so this might be something where we have to agree to disagree.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4268 on: September 06, 2013, 06:17:33 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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West Playoff teams in no particular order:
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
OKC Thunder
GS Warriors
Houston Rockets
Portland Trailblazers
San Antonio Spurs

This is not my final decision so try to convince me on why your team should be in the playoffs or be ranked higher.

Los Angeles Lakers: When was the last time a team had a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense and still missed the playoffs? For reference, the only two teams with those stats last year were Oklahoma City and Miami.

And if you don't believe the Lakers are top 5 offense and top 10 defense, feel free to list 5 teams that outdo us on offense and 10 teams that outdo us on defense. Personally I have the Lakers at #1 offense and #6 defense.

Furthermore, the Lakers lack the injury concerns and/or chemistry/fit issues that some of the above teams do.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4269 on: September 06, 2013, 06:32:42 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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West Playoff teams in no particular order:
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
OKC Thunder
GS Warriors
Houston Rockets
Portland Trailblazers
San Antonio Spurs

This is not my final decision so try to convince me on why your team should be in the playoffs or be ranked higher.

Los Angeles Lakers: When was the last time a team had a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense and still missed the playoffs? For reference, the only two teams with those stats last year were Oklahoma City and Miami.

And if you don't believe the Lakers are top 5 offense and top 10 defense, feel free to list 5 teams that outdo us on offense and 10 teams that outdo us on defense. Personally I have the Lakers at #1 offense and #6 defense.

Furthermore, the Lakers lack the injury concerns and/or chemistry/fit issues that some of the above teams do.

Offensive teams I think are better in no particular order:
GS Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Portland Trailblazers (stopped at 5 as you ranked your team in top 5)

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4270 on: September 06, 2013, 06:44:24 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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Offensive teams I think are better in no particular order:
GS Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Portland Trailblazers (stopped at 5 as you ranked your team in top 5)

Warriors: Roy Hibbert is a center who has never eclipsed 50 FG% in his entire career. Derozan is one of the most inefficient scorers in the league. There is no clear timetable for Rondo's return.

Mavericks: Valid team, and I personally have them #3. The only difference is that the dropoff between Nash and Knight is huge, and you know Nash won't be exceeding 30 minutes a night and will need to take days off - if you're a pessimist, you also have the injury factor with him. The offense is also reliant on Eric Gordon, which is sort of self-explanatory. When fully healthy and Nash playing 30+, I do agree this offense will be better than LA. Problem is, there's 82 games to get through before the postseason. Oh, and Josh Smith...

Rockets: Another valid team. I have them at #2, and it's understandable why you could see them ahead of us.

Pacers: Ray Allen is largely a spot-up shooter right now. Williams is a great PG but his big men targets are a declining PF who is probably playing more minutes than he should, and a defensive-minded C. Stuckey is as inconsistent of a sixth man as they come. D-Will and Durant are good but they only go so far. Williams/Allen/Durant/Scola will ensure that this team's offense is good, but not great.

Blazers: [REDACTED] With Jennings, Johnson, and Melo on the team, they might be the best offensive team in terms of volume, but certainly not efficiency. Not even close. 

WARNING: This type of confrontational manner will get you kicked out of this game. You have been warned.


EDIT: How was that confrontational? I have been very conscious to make sure that nothing I have said is offensive, particularly with dark lord, and the statement in question here was hardly aggressive IMO - ronaldo certainly took no offense.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2013, 07:01:14 PM by rondoallaturca »

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4271 on: September 06, 2013, 06:58:03 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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Warriors: Roy Hibbert is a center who has never eclipsed 50 FG% in his entire career. Derozan is one of the most inefficient scorers in the league. There is no clear timetable for Rondo's return.

Mavericks: Valid team, and I personally have them #3. The only difference is that the dropoff between Nash and Knight is huge, and you know Nash won't be exceeding 30 minutes a night and will need to take days off - if you're a pessimist, you also have the injury factor with him. The offense is also reliant on Eric Gordon, which is sort of self-explanatory. When fully healthy and Nash playing 30+, I do agree this offense will be better than LA. Problem is, there's 82 games to get through before the postseason. Oh, and Josh Smith...

Rockets: Another valid team. I have them at #2, and it's understandable why you could see them ahead of us.

Pacers: Ray Allen is largely a spot-up shooter right now. Williams is a great PG but his big men targets are a declining PF who is probably playing more minutes than he should, and a defensive-minded C. Stuckey is as inconsistent of a sixth man as they come. D-Will and Durant are good but they only go so far. Williams/Allen/Durant/Scola will ensure that this team's offense is good, but not great.

Blazers: Can you say they'll be a top 5 offensive team with Jennings, Johnson, and Melo with a straight face? They might be the best offensive team in terms of volume, but certainly not efficiency. Not even close.

Warriors: Derozan shot .445% FG last season.

Pacers: A team led by KD and D-Will will always be better than one led by Dirk, Gasol, and Calderon and it's not close.

Blazers: Take out Jennings and yes I could. Melo shot .449 last season and led the league in scoring.

Also rebounding is an issue with your team. (Part of the reason why I have them at #9 in the West)
« Last Edit: September 06, 2013, 07:03:46 PM by ronaldo943 »

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4272 on: September 06, 2013, 07:05:04 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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44.5 FG% is average but his TS% has been in the low .500s for three straight seasons. He has no perimeter game which means that floor spacing will be difficult with a Rondo/Derozan backcourt.

I think you're severely underrating the potency of an offense led by Dirk, Gasol, and Calderon, but I don't blame you; KD and D-Will are flashier names. But even counting them, that's three teams including Dallas and Houston.

And I'd have an easier time believing in Portland's offense if they didn't have Jennings, too. Unfortunately, they do.

To put it in another perspective: 4 of our 5 starters have career TS% above 57%. In Pondexter's breakout year last season, his TS% was 56.5%. 4 of our starters are lethal perimeter threats and our center can take his jumper right below the three-point line. Calderon put up a 4.11 AST/TO in two bottom 10 offenses, and now he's working with a competent offense that features two of the best bigs off the pick in addition to some of the best three-point shooters in the game.

I definitely agree that rebounding is a weakness for our team, but rebounding hasn't correlated with success in recent years. Obviously, Boston wasn't a strong rebounding team with Bass/KG. Last year's Finalists, San Antonio and Miami, were both in the bottom half of the league in rebounding.

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4273 on: September 06, 2013, 07:23:18 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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I've made my final changes, Nick where do I send?

Re: 2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING THRU TOMORROW 8:00PM EST
« Reply #4274 on: September 06, 2013, 07:27:14 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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West
(Lakers)
1. Thunder
2. Rockets
3. Timberwolves
4. Spurs
5. Mavericks
6. Grizzlies
7. Nuggets
8. Suns
9. Warriors
10. Blazers
11. Clippers

East
1. Heat
2. Knicks
3. Bucks
4. Cavaliers
5. Magic
6. Wizards
7. Celtics
8. Pacers
9. Hawks
10. Bulls
11. Nets
12. 76ers
13. Pistons

- Admittedly, the Phoenix ranking was based more on a lack of a presser than anything else. I would easily have ranked this a playoff team otherwise.

- The East was actually harder to rank than the West for me. It's less competitive but so is the disparity between teams. The Bucks and Cavaliers can easily be interchanged, and I probably spent more time on the Eastern rankings from #5 onward than I did for everything else.

Warriors out of the playoffs? With rondo and la?


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