Author Topic: Shavlik: Today is decision time  (Read 28510 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #60 on: August 01, 2013, 08:24:19 AM »

Offline slamtheking

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31869
  • Tommy Points: 10047
If we can't work out a trade, we are paying luxury tax anyway.  An extra million or two is not the issue, avoiding the luxury tax is. 

Payroll for the purpose of luxury tax isn't calculated until the final day of the regular season.  A trade deadline salary dump may be sufficient to avoid the tax, and the Celtics have several players who might be moved by then.

Might be moved by then. It's the repeater's tax in future years that they really want to avoid.

Which is why I don't think Wyc let's Danny go over budget, then try to get under it at a time in the season where he'd have to dump twice the salary he'd have to dump before the season starts.

I thought this would have been over six hours ago, but it's good news we've still got another day here.

I find it interesting that celtics.com is still posting stories referring to CI as an unsigned pick.  I wouldn't completely rule out a deal that gives them room for both SR and CI this year.
I wouldn't rule out a deal either but Celtics.com is the last place I'd go for a clue as to whether that may or may not happen.  They're not exactly up-to-the-moment with their updates. 

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #61 on: August 01, 2013, 08:33:15 AM »

Offline chambers

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7482
  • Tommy Points: 943
  • Boston Celtics= Championships, nothing less.
He's probably got potential to be a nice piece of trade bait if we deal Rondo+Wallace for a star or pick at the deadline.
Make him a legit back up Center and let him rebound his butt off and guard pick and rolls. He has some nice moves inside too and his game is so much better than his stats suggest after his time in China.
I seriously doubt he clears waivers though so it's win win for Shav. Hopefully we can bring him back. They may just cut Crawford but he's also a nice potential piece with less pressure this season.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #62 on: August 01, 2013, 09:35:27 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
Shavlik Randolph will be 32 in 2015-16.  My guess is he will still be an extremely productive vet. and a sought after trade chip by contenders.
Still? He has never been particularly productive to begin with.

Also, he may qualify as a veteran based on age, but given his career, considering him any sort of a solid NBA veteran is certainly a stretch.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #63 on: August 01, 2013, 09:39:39 AM »

Offline Chris

  • Global Moderator
  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18008
  • Tommy Points: 642
I hope they don't cut him, purely because that would indicate Danny has another deal brewing (or is at least determined to make one).  This team needs some more shuffling, big time.

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #64 on: August 01, 2013, 09:49:45 AM »

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
Still? He has never been particularly productive to begin with.
I think you are under estimating how productive Randolph was last year.  He only played 12.5 minutes a game, but per 36 he averaged 12.2p, 12.7r, 1.5s, 1.3b, 58.3% FG, 15.9PER, 110 ORtg and 99 DRtg.  Small sample size, but those are unbelievable numbers.
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #65 on: August 01, 2013, 10:00:25 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48120
  • Tommy Points: 8794
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
Still? He has never been particularly productive to begin with.
I think you are under estimating how productive Randolph was last year.  He only played 12.5 minutes a game, but per 36 he averaged 12.2p, 12.7r, 1.5s, 1.3b, 58.3% FG, 15.9PER, 110 ORtg and 99 DRtg.  Small sample size, but those are unbelievable numbers.
He also only played 16 games which makes his sample size so small as to make the numbers irrelevant.

He is what he is. An 8 MPG player that gives you 3 PPG and 3 RPG while being an almost non-factor when he is on the court. He's has borderline NBA talent at best and his skills are redundant given the players already on the roster(Sullinger, Bass, Olynyk, Faverani, Humphries, Melo). Save the $1.1 million he would have to be paid and the $1+ million he would cost you in luxury taxes if no deal can be made to move some other player(s).

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #66 on: August 01, 2013, 10:13:09 AM »

Offline clover

  • Front Page Moderator
  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6130
  • Tommy Points: 315
If we can't work out a trade, we are paying luxury tax anyway.  An extra million or two is not the issue, avoiding the luxury tax is. 

Payroll for the purpose of luxury tax isn't calculated until the final day of the regular season.  A trade deadline salary dump may be sufficient to avoid the tax, and the Celtics have several players who might be moved by then.

Might be moved by then. It's the repeater's tax in future years that they really want to avoid.

Which is why I don't think Wyc lets Danny go over budget, then try to get under it at a time in the season where he'd have to dump twice the salary he'd have to dump before the season starts.

I thought this would have been over six hours ago, but it's good news we've still got another day here.

I find it interesting that celtics.com is still posting stories referring to CI as an unsigned pick.  I wouldn't completely rule out a deal that gives them room for both SR and CI this year.
I wouldn't rule out a deal either but Celtics.com is the last place I'd go for a clue as to whether that may or may not happen.  They're not exactly up-to-the-moment with their updates.

I hear ya, but these are articles posted by Marc D'Amico as recently as yesterday.

Probably shouldn't get my hopes up, since it's likely they roll into the season without either guy on their roster.

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #67 on: August 01, 2013, 10:13:38 AM »

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
He is what he is. An 8 MPG player that gives you 3 PPG and 3 RPG while being an almost non-factor when he is on the court. He's has borderline NBA talent at best and his skills are redundant given the players already on the roster(Sullinger, Bass, Olynyk, Faverani, Humphries, Melo). Save the $1.1 million he would have to be paid and the $1+ million he would cost you in luxury taxes if no deal can be made to move some other player(s).

It is your opinion that he is a borderline NBA talent at best and he was a non-factor when he is on the court.  The numbers do not back up either one of those claims.  Even the numbers you provided (his career numbers) translate to 12p, 12r per 36. 

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9110337/let-shavlik-randolph-loose-see-do-boston-celtics
« Last Edit: August 01, 2013, 10:20:38 AM by Yogi »
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #68 on: August 01, 2013, 10:23:28 AM »

Offline Fafnir

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30859
  • Tommy Points: 1327
He is what he is. An 8 MPG player that gives you 3 PPG and 3 RPG while being an almost non-factor when he is on the court. He's has borderline NBA talent at best and his skills are redundant given the players already on the roster(Sullinger, Bass, Olynyk, Faverani, Humphries, Melo). Save the $1.1 million he would have to be paid and the $1+ million he would cost you in luxury taxes if no deal can be made to move some other player(s).

It is your opinion that he is a borderline NBA talent at best and he was a non-factor when he is on the court.  The numbers do not back up either one of those claims.  Even the numbers you provided (his career numbers) translate to 12p, 12r per 36. 

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9110337/let-shavlik-randolph-loose-see-do-boston-celtics
Opponents scored at a 112.6 ORTG when he was on the court. He couldn't maintain the level of defense the C's had to play to win. That's why he's a borderline NBA player.

Also his fouls per 36 were 6.9 meaning he fouls too often to stay on the court for more than spot minutes anyways. Fouls are very bad, not only do they keep you off the court but they translate into free points for the opposition very quickly.

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #69 on: August 01, 2013, 10:24:46 AM »

Online rocknrollforyoursoul

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9672
  • Tommy Points: 325
Still? He has never been particularly productive to begin with.
I think you are under estimating how productive Randolph was last year.  He only played 12.5 minutes a game, but per 36 he averaged 12.2p, 12.7r, 1.5s, 1.3b, 58.3% FG, 15.9PER, 110 ORtg and 99 DRtg.  Small sample size, but those are unbelievable numbers.
He also only played 16 games which makes his sample size so small as to make the numbers irrelevant.

He is what he is. An 8 MPG player that gives you 3 PPG and 3 RPG while being an almost non-factor when he is on the court. He's has borderline NBA talent at best and his skills are redundant given the players already on the roster(Sullinger, Bass, Olynyk, Faverani, Humphries, Melo). Save the $1.1 million he would have to be paid and the $1+ million he would cost you in luxury taxes if no deal can be made to move some other player(s).

I wouldn't say his skills are redundant. His best skill is rebounding, and out of all the other players you named, only Sully and Humphries have proved to be above-average NBA rebounders. And I don't think you can ever have too many good rebounders.
"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

"You don't have a soul. You are a Soul. You have a body."

— C.S. Lewis

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #70 on: August 01, 2013, 10:34:58 AM »

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
Quote
Opponents scored at a 112.6 ORTG when he was on the court. He couldn't maintain the level of defense the C's had to play to win. That's why he's a borderline NBA player.

Also his fouls per 36 were 6.9 meaning he fouls too often to stay on the court for more than spot minutes anyways. Fouls are very bad, not only do they keep you off the court but they translate into free points for the opposition very quickly.

I am not sure where you got that number from, but Randolph has an individual Drtg of 99.  His excellent defensive synergy stats on defense are listed in the link I posted.  Combined with his phenomenal, steal, block and rebound rates I don't see how anyone can claim he was a poor defender.  He fouls a lot but that's why he's there.  He's a physical guy who can get you rebounds, hard fouls and hustle points. 
« Last Edit: August 01, 2013, 10:49:06 AM by Yogi »
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #71 on: August 01, 2013, 10:52:55 AM »

Offline Fafnir

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30859
  • Tommy Points: 1327
Quote
Opponents scored at a 112.6 ORTG when he was on the court. He couldn't maintain the level of defense the C's had to play to win. That's why he's a borderline NBA player.

Also his fouls per 36 were 6.9 meaning he fouls too often to stay on the court for more than spot minutes anyways. Fouls are very bad, not only do they keep you off the court but they translate into free points for the opposition very quickly.

I am not sure where you got that number from, but Randolph has an individual Drtg of 99.  His excellent defensive synergy stats on defense are listed in the link I posted.  Combined with his phenomenal, steal, block and rebound rates I don't see how anyone can claim he was a poor defender.  He fouls a lot but that's why he's there.  He's a physical guy who can get you rebounds, hard fouls and hustle points.
Basketball reference on/off court lineups.

Our team defense was terrible when he was on the court. Defensive rating is a far cruder measure that makes several normally assumptions based on box score statistics. These assumptions are flawed overall (but not crippling) and even more flawed in the case of a limited minutes big man.

I also don't trust synergy defensive stats when it comes to team defense. This is because if he fails to rotate or starts the chain of events to cover for his poor hedge then he won't get "discredit" in synergy numbers which are best at evaluating isolation and man to man defense.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2013, 10:58:12 AM by Fafnir »

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #72 on: August 01, 2013, 11:10:40 AM »

Offline JBcat

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3642
  • Tommy Points: 512
Still? He has never been particularly productive to begin with.
I think you are under estimating how productive Randolph was last year.  He only played 12.5 minutes a game, but per 36 he averaged 12.2p, 12.7r, 1.5s, 1.3b, 58.3% FG, 15.9PER, 110 ORtg and 99 DRtg.  Small sample size, but those are unbelievable numbers.
He also only played 16 games which makes his sample size so small as to make the numbers irrelevant.

He is what he is. An 8 MPG player that gives you 3 PPG and 3 RPG while being an almost non-factor when he is on the court. He's has borderline NBA talent at best and his skills are redundant given the players already on the roster(Sullinger, Bass, Olynyk, Faverani, Humphries, Melo). Save the $1.1 million he would have to be paid and the $1+ million he would cost you in luxury taxes if no deal can be made to move some other player(s).

I don't think it's completely fair to use career numbers for Randolph.  Early in his career he had a Joe Theisman like injury with his ankle, and I believe he had some hip issues as well.  I remember him saying last year was the best he felt in a long long time. Combined with naturally getting a little stronger as he's aged, he's probably a much better player than he was early in his career.

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #73 on: August 01, 2013, 11:20:16 AM »

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
Quote
Basketball reference on/off court lineups.

Our team defense was terrible when he was on the court. Defensive rating is a far cruder measure that makes several normally assumptions based on box score statistics. These assumptions are flawed overall (but not crippling) and even more flawed in the case of a limited minutes big man.

I also don't trust synergy defensive stats when it comes to team defense. This is because if he fails to rotate or starts the chain of events to cover for his poor hedge then he won't get "discredit" in synergy numbers which are best at evaluating isolation and man to man defense.

What you fail to mention is that our own offensive rating was 113.9 for a net +1.3.  When he was off the court we were -0.6.  We also out rebounded opponents by 2% with him on the court as opposed to getting out rebounded by 5% when he was off the court.  Your own numbers show that we were a much better team when he was on the court than when he was off the court. 
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Re: Shavlik: Today is decision time
« Reply #74 on: August 01, 2013, 11:33:56 AM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3845
  • Tommy Points: 257
Wow.  One minute the guy is playing in China because no NBA team wants him, and after a couple of 10 days and a few games with the Celtics, he suddenly becomes a valuable chip to a contender?

When exactly did he become anything but a marginal scrub player in the NBA?