Let's talk about picks

[Boris Badenov]

Some food for thought in terms of strategy and the outlook over the next few years.

Ainge is an above average drafter. This has been established pretty conclusively as others have stated above.

We have a slew of picks over the next several years. So, how to best use those to rebuild?

What Danny's history suggests to me is that in terms of creating value - assets - for building the team going forward, Danny should not trade the picks.

He should draft players, given that in his hands those picks will be more likely to turn out to be valuable beyond their draft position. Then, he can package those players for greater assets (ideally a la the KG trade - in which the centerpiece was a 15th pick in the draft by Ainge).

This actually makes his strategy of acquiring picks - even late 1st picks - seem more sensible. They're worth more in his hands than in the hands of others.

[danglertx]

I will make a prediction, no way do we actually use all of those picks.  That is how perpetually bad teams stay perpetually bad, loading up the roster with rookies on guaranteed contracts.  We'd be like Charlotte x2 because not only would we have our picks clogging up our roster, we'd have an extra pick as well.

Even if 33% of those players turned out to be quality starters, we'd still have 77% of those guys on guaranteed contracts who were busts.  You can pick up quality players (not superstars but quality guys) every year in free agency.  Melo is as big a bust as there could be and we are still dragging his corpse around on our roster.

[hwangjini_1]

I will make a prediction, no way do we actually use all of those picks.  That is how perpetually bad teams stay perpetually bad, loading up the roster with rookies on guaranteed contracts.  We'd be like Charlotte x2 because not only would we have our picks clogging up our roster, we'd have an extra pick as well.

Even if 33% of those players turned out to be quality starters, we'd still have 77% of those guys on guaranteed contracts who were busts.  You can pick up quality players (not superstars but quality guys) every year in free agency.  Melo is as big a bust as there could be and we are still dragging his corpse around on our roster.

just a small note on labeling melo and other players chosen in the draft where he was. i am not sure if the word "bust" is appropriate here. i mean what sort of expectations could anyone realistically have for players picked in the 20s? bust is usually reserved for players whom we expect to be good to great and is drafted high, but they turn out to be duds. THAT is a bust.

remember, for players in the lower half of the draft, 49% washed out of the nba within a few years. only 21% became starters or stars.

with that as context we can say melo stinks all we want. that is fair. but to inflate the attacks by tossing in "da bum is a bust too!" misses a key point. almost anyone taken in that range is slated for failure, not success.

a small point, but just one i wanted to make. 

[Boris Badenov]

I will make a prediction, no way do we actually use all of those picks.  That is how perpetually bad teams stay perpetually bad, loading up the roster with rookies on guaranteed contracts.  We'd be like Charlotte x2 because not only would we have our picks clogging up our roster, we'd have an extra pick as well.

Even if 33% of those players turned out to be quality starters, we'd still have 77% of those guys on guaranteed contracts who were busts.  You can pick up quality players (not superstars but quality guys) every year in free agency.  Melo is as big a bust as there could be and we are still dragging his corpse around on our roster.

just a small note on labeling melo and other players chosen in the draft where he was. i am not sure if the word "bust" is appropriate here. i mean what sort of expectations could anyone realistically have for players picked in the 20s? bust is usually reserved for players whom we expect to be good to great and is drafted high, but they turn out to be duds. THAT is a bust.

remember, for players in the lower half of the draft, 49% washed out of the nba within a few years. only 21% became starters or stars.

with that as context we can say melo stinks all we want. that is fair. but to inflate the attacks by tossing in "da bum is a bust too!" misses a key point. almost anyone taken in that range is slated for failure, not success.

a small point, but just one i wanted to make. 

It's too early to tell for sure, but he's definitely underperforming his draft range based on one year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html

It's a crude measure but the easiest thing is just to sort by minutes played. Melo was taken 22nd of 60 guys, and 44 of them played more minutes than him last year. Most of the remainder were international stashes.

I think this year will tell the tale. My guess is that the team commits to giving him 10mpg or so early in the year. If he doesn't show signs of growth, that could be it.