Author Topic: Creating a New Draft Lottery System  (Read 2215 times)

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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2013, 01:05:25 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.

The system wouldn't appear rigged if there is a lot of variability.

And a system like this hopefully would give teams more incentive to actually try to make the playoffs and be entertaining, since it'd be harder to bank on getting a nice marketable star on the cheap if you just tank for a season or two.

So you'd hopefully have fewer fans that would be incensed by this because they could legitimately hope that the same kind of good fortune befalls their own team.

I'd rather see the occasional solid playoff team get a nice top pick (e.g. the Hawks get Wiggins) as opposed to having fans cheering for their team to be god-awful so they can pick the next big thing.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2013, 01:10:05 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.

The system wouldn't appear rigged if there is a lot of variability.

Find me a method where the Lakers or Knicks can barely make the playoffs and end up with the #1 pick without people complaining around here that the system is rigged.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2013, 01:16:27 PM »

Offline furball

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No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

That alone would be a big step forward in my opinion.

I never understand why people complain about this.  They do it for the drama.  There are reps of the teams in the room when they do the lottery.  If they were fixing it the other teams would have to agree with it.  So if the Lakers and Celtics are both in the lottery next season and the league wants to give L.A. Wiggins, the Celtics would have to agree to it. 
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2013, 01:17:58 PM »

Offline Casperian

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My concern would be that some general managers would hurt their franchises by hoarding points over several seasons and declining to make high picks in the hopes that they can blow it all on one star at the top of a "loaded" draft -- e.g. Wiggins.

I guess that just means that your system rewards better management and punishes worse management, which is a good thing.  It might be too harsh, though.  Even more so than the current draft system -- or even my proposed system -- it means that having a bad GM could screw your franchise over for years and years.

Thank you for reading it.

I´ve heard that argument before, but I´m not sure it´s entirely correct. While there´s certainly the possibility to "game" the system, I find it hard to believe that any fanbase would accept it if their GM decides to wait several seasons before cashing in. One season, maybe, but I have to assume skipping two drafts (and thus, be bad for three seasons) would be just too much for any fanbase to bear.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #19 on: July 08, 2013, 01:26:03 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.

The system wouldn't appear rigged if there is a lot of variability.

Find me a method where the Lakers or Knicks can barely make the playoffs and end up with the #1 pick without people complaining around here that the system is rigged.

good thread. in response to the point directly above... could we create brackets for ALL teams and members could only move up/down WITHIN their bracket?

brackets such as ...

worst regular season record
- teams 1-5, and the lottery only moves them within that bracket, and movement is weighted with worse record having higher odds at best pick.

- teams 6-10, only these teams move within this braket, and movement is weighted.

and so on. the actually bracket size could be changed (say 1-7 instead of 1 to 5), but the point is to allow ALL teams to join a form of lottery.

just a thought to try and help an interesting discussion.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #20 on: July 08, 2013, 01:31:56 PM »

Offline JJones1090

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No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

That alone would be a big step forward in my opinion.

I never understand why people complain about this.  They do it for the drama.  There are reps of the teams in the room when they do the lottery.  If they were fixing it the other teams would have to agree with it.  So if the Lakers and Celtics are both in the lottery next season and the league wants to give L.A. Wiggins, the Celtics would have to agree to it.

Regardless of how it's done...if it's done behind closed doors, no one in the public actually knows how it's being done. They just know how they are told it's being done. Not saying it isn't perfectly legit...but that's why people think it's a conspiracy all the time.

And why not make it a big event? More money. People would watch that. Make it an hour long program...I'm sure it's kind of exciting to watch. And if it's not, then make it exciting to watch.

Show us Laker tears. I'll watch it.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2013, 01:41:32 PM »

Offline furball

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No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

That alone would be a big step forward in my opinion.

I never understand why people complain about this.  They do it for the drama.  There are reps of the teams in the room when they do the lottery.  If they were fixing it the other teams would have to agree with it.  So if the Lakers and Celtics are both in the lottery next season and the league wants to give L.A. Wiggins, the Celtics would have to agree to it.

Regardless of how it's done...if it's done behind closed doors, no one in the public actually knows how it's being done. They just know how they are told it's being done. Not saying it isn't perfectly legit...but that's why people think it's a conspiracy all the time.

And why not make it a big event? More money. People would watch that. Make it an hour long program...I'm sure it's kind of exciting to watch. And if it's not, then make it exciting to watch.

Show us Laker tears. I'll watch it.

But it's not exciting.  They do it the way they do to make it exciting.  To do it live they would pull the first number, everyone would check, the winning team would celebrate.  The next number they pull could belong to the team that already won, then they have to pull another number and so on until they get the second pick and again for the third.  If I am not mistaken, they only pick the first three picks, so after that there is nothing to see.  Unlike now, where you sit nervously through all 11 (or 12 I forget) lottery picks waiting to see if someone moved up. 

As far as conspiracy theorists, they are always going to be there.  They did the Patrick Ewing lottery on live tv and everyone insists it was fixed.  So how does live tv help?
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2013, 01:44:46 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.

The system wouldn't appear rigged if there is a lot of variability.

Find me a method where the Lakers or Knicks can barely make the playoffs and end up with the #1 pick without people complaining around here that the system is rigged.

Let them complain.  All that matters is that it fixes the system of perverse incentives currently at play in the league.

People are still going to watch the league.  People watch the league now even though many believe the lottery is 'rigged.'

If anything, major markets getting big stars would increase viewership, not hurt it.  I don't see how this is a bad thing for the NBA.

As others have said, you can just be very transparent and up-front about the random drawings for position instead of the behind-closed-doors thing they have now.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2013, 01:46:36 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

That alone would be a big step forward in my opinion.

I never understand why people complain about this.  They do it for the drama.  There are reps of the teams in the room when they do the lottery.  If they were fixing it the other teams would have to agree with it.  So if the Lakers and Celtics are both in the lottery next season and the league wants to give L.A. Wiggins, the Celtics would have to agree to it.

Regardless of how it's done...if it's done behind closed doors, no one in the public actually knows how it's being done. They just know how they are told it's being done. Not saying it isn't perfectly legit...but that's why people think it's a conspiracy all the time.

And why not make it a big event? More money. People would watch that. Make it an hour long program...I'm sure it's kind of exciting to watch. And if it's not, then make it exciting to watch.

Show us Laker tears. I'll watch it.

But it's not exciting.  They do it the way they do to make it exciting.  To do it live they would pull the first number, everyone would check, the winning team would celebrate.  The next number they pull could belong to the team that already won, then they have to pull another number and so on until they get the second pick and again for the third.  If I am not mistaken, they only pick the first three picks, so after that there is nothing to see.  Unlike now, where you sit nervously through all 11 (or 12 I forget) lottery picks waiting to see if someone moved up. 

As far as conspiracy theorists, they are always going to be there.  They did the Patrick Ewing lottery on live tv and everyone insists it was fixed.  So how does live tv help?

someone please check of my belief here, but i believe that it takes multiple picks to get the "winners." it is tied into a very complex set of formulas that need multiple picks to resolve it.

so rather than increased transparency and excitement, it seems as if it would be much less interesting.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #24 on: July 08, 2013, 01:47:10 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.

The system wouldn't appear rigged if there is a lot of variability.

Find me a method where the Lakers or Knicks can barely make the playoffs and end up with the #1 pick without people complaining around here that the system is rigged.

good thread. in response to the point directly above... could we create brackets for ALL teams and members could only move up/down WITHIN their bracket?

brackets such as ...

worst regular season record
- teams 1-5, and the lottery only moves them within that bracket, and movement is weighted with worse record having higher odds at best pick.

- teams 6-10, only these teams move within this braket, and movement is weighted.

and so on. the actually bracket size could be changed (say 1-7 instead of 1 to 5), but the point is to allow ALL teams to join a form of lottery.

just a thought to try and help an interesting discussion.


I'd be happy with a system that functions in the way you describe.

I'd also be happy with a system that just gives everybody in the league, with the exception, perhaps, of the very best teams in each conference, a set chance at getting a pick.  Then you just select spots 1-22 (or whatever) randomly.

I think you could go either way and have it be a bit simpler than the hybrid system I've thought up.

Anything is better than what we've got now.
Quote from: BBallTim
Parker isn't going to score 30 ppg and rebuilds generally take longer than 1 year. Relax.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #25 on: July 08, 2013, 01:48:41 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

That alone would be a big step forward in my opinion.

I never understand why people complain about this.  They do it for the drama.  There are reps of the teams in the room when they do the lottery.  If they were fixing it the other teams would have to agree with it.  So if the Lakers and Celtics are both in the lottery next season and the league wants to give L.A. Wiggins, the Celtics would have to agree to it.

Regardless of how it's done...if it's done behind closed doors, no one in the public actually knows how it's being done. They just know how they are told it's being done. Not saying it isn't perfectly legit...but that's why people think it's a conspiracy all the time.

And why not make it a big event? More money. People would watch that. Make it an hour long program...I'm sure it's kind of exciting to watch. And if it's not, then make it exciting to watch.

Show us Laker tears. I'll watch it.

But it's not exciting.  They do it the way they do to make it exciting.  To do it live they would pull the first number, everyone would check, the winning team would celebrate.  The next number they pull could belong to the team that already won, then they have to pull another number and so on until they get the second pick and again for the third.  If I am not mistaken, they only pick the first three picks, so after that there is nothing to see.  Unlike now, where you sit nervously through all 11 (or 12 I forget) lottery picks waiting to see if someone moved up. 

As far as conspiracy theorists, they are always going to be there.  They did the Patrick Ewing lottery on live tv and everyone insists it was fixed.  So how does live tv help?

someone please check of my belief here, but i believe that it takes multiple picks to get the "winners." it is tied into a very complex set of formulas that need multiple picks to resolve it.

so rather than increased transparency and excitement, it seems as if it would be much less interesting.

Yeah, I mean, when I was coming up with my sample results it often took a lot of rolls to get all of the numbers for each of the teams.  Unless you just came up with an algorithm and created a computer program to spit out the results, it would be a long and boring process watching them take lottery balls out of a tumbler.
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Parker isn't going to score 30 ppg and rebuilds generally take longer than 1 year. Relax.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2013, 02:12:57 PM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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My suggestion is to toss out performance in the league altogether and weight the draft odds entirely on what draft picks a team would have had minus trades over the past 5 years. That way the longer a team goes without a high draft pick, the more likely they are to land one in the next draft. How would this league wide lottery work? Basically the numbers of the draft picks which a team would have had minus trades over the preceding 5 years would be added up and divided by the sum of draft picks across the league to establish the  percentage chance that team has in winning the next league wide lottery.  To illustrate it with an example. If, for example the Bobcats picks over the last 5 years were 1, 3, 6, 2 and 3, then their chances of winning the next draft lottery would be 15 divide by the sum of all the teams picks over 5 years x 100   
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #27 on: July 08, 2013, 02:15:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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My suggestion is to toss out performance in the league altogether and weight the draft odds entirely on what draft picks a team would have had minus trades over the past 5 years. That way the longer a team goes without a high draft pick, the more likely they are to land one in the next draft. How would this league wide lottery work? Basically the numbers of the draft picks which a team would have had minus trades over the preceding 5 years would be added up and divided by the sum of draft picks across the league to establish the  percentage chance that team has in winning the next league wide lottery.  To illustrate it with an example. If, for example the Bobcats picks over the last 5 years were 1, 3, 6, 2 and 3, then their chances of winning the next draft lottery would be 15 divide by the sum of all the teams picks over 5 years x 100

I'd need a clearer illustration of what you mean, because I really don't follow.
Quote from: BBallTim
Parker isn't going to score 30 ppg and rebuilds generally take longer than 1 year. Relax.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2013, 02:24:01 PM »

Offline bdm860

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.

The system wouldn't appear rigged if there is a lot of variability.

Find me a method where the Lakers or Knicks can barely make the playoffs and end up with the #1 pick without people complaining around here that the system is rigged.

good thread. in response to the point directly above... could we create brackets for ALL teams and members could only move up/down WITHIN their bracket?

brackets such as ...

worst regular season record
- teams 1-5, and the lottery only moves them within that bracket, and movement is weighted with worse record having higher odds at best pick.

- teams 6-10, only these teams move within this braket, and movement is weighted.

and so on. the actually bracket size could be changed (say 1-7 instead of 1 to 5), but the point is to allow ALL teams to join a form of lottery.

just a thought to try and help an interesting discussion.

Personally I think this would be changing the system just for the sake of changing it.

How would this proposed system not encourage tanking?  Huge incentive to tank to get into the best bracket, plus incentive to tank for better odds at the best pick in your bracket, plus incentive to tank if you’re borderline between 2 brackets.  Same problems, just formatted differently.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 02:34:32 PM by bdm860 »

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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2013, 02:25:44 PM »

Offline bfrombleacher

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My suggestion is to toss out performance in the league altogether and weight the draft odds entirely on what draft picks a team would have had minus trades over the past 5 years. That way the longer a team goes without a high draft pick, the more likely they are to land one in the next draft. How would this league wide lottery work? Basically the numbers of the draft picks which a team would have had minus trades over the preceding 5 years would be added up and divided by the sum of draft picks across the league to establish the  percentage chance that team has in winning the next league wide lottery.  To illustrate it with an example. If, for example the Bobcats picks over the last 5 years were 1, 3, 6, 2 and 3, then their chances of winning the next draft lottery would be 15 divide by the sum of all the teams picks over 5 years x 100

I'd need a clearer illustration of what you mean, because I really don't follow.

Rather than the lottery odds being based on the performance of a team in 1 year, he wants it to be based on the performance of a team over the past 5 years is my understanding of what he's trying to say.

 

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