Author Topic: Creating a New Draft Lottery System  (Read 5644 times)

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Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« on: July 08, 2013, 12:18:03 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Heading into a rebuilding period, there's been a lot of debate on these forums about the strategy that the Celtics should use to construct a contender.  Much of that debate boils down to the question -- To tank or not to tank?

The NBA's draft lottery and the perverse system of incentives that it creates for teams outside of the top tier of playoff contenders is at the heart of that debate.  As a fan, do you want to see your team do whatever it takes to get a top pick, or does that go against the spirit of competition?  Is it wrong as a fan to root for your team to lose, if it means a "win" in the long run in the form of a top lottery pick? 

I'm of the opinion that you can't blame fans or teams for doing what the system tells them to do; the bottom line is that neither teams nor fans should be put in this position in the first place.  The system is broken.
In response to that, I decided it would be interesting to come up with a new draft lottery system.

Goals of New Lottery System:

1. Lessen incentive to tank without punishing teams for being bad

2. Remove disincentive to make playoffs; anybody who doesn't host a playoff series has a chance to move up in the draft via the lottery.  This presumes hosting a playoff series is sufficient incentive to miss out on the lottery -- top 4 seeds tend to be contenders / psuedo-contenders.

3. Make draft positioning much more random so that it is substantially harder to "aim" for a specific part of the draft by tweaking your regular season record.  This militates against tanking to avoid giving up a protected pick (e.g. Warriors two seasons ago).

4. Give teams currently in "NBA purgatory" a real chance to get a nice pick in the draft each year.  This makes it more attractive to build on what you have instead of constantly selling off assets as soon as your talent base plateaus, because even a mediocre to average team can get a top pick.



My hope is that a system like this would reward teams for making the best of their current situation -- including the talent already on the roster and the picks they happen to get in the draft.  It doesn't reward teams for trying to be bad to get a guaranteed top pick. 

Whether you're a bad team or a pretty okay team, you could get a pick in the top 8 or you could end up in the late teens.  The draft becomes a bonus to your rebuilding effort, not the end-all be-all focus of what you try to do in any given season, because you can't depend on picking in a certain range.



In the system I've devised, the last 8 slots (23-30) are set in stone.  These are occupied by the top 4 seeds in each conference, arranged according to regular season record (i.e. best overall record gets #30).

To determine the order of slots 1-22, the system involves three sets of random rolls.

The four teams with the worst records in the league automatically get to pick in the top 8. 

The first set of rolls determines the other four teams that will be in the top 8, with odds ranging from approximately 10% for the team with the 5th worst record to approximately 2.5% for the team with the 22nd worst record.

The second set of rolls determines the order of the top 8.  The four worst regular season teams each get approximately 15% chance, while the other four teams selected to the top 8 get approximately 10% chance.

The third set of rolls determines the order of slots 9 through 22.  The odds for selection for the remaining teams ranges from approximately 10% for the team with the worst regular season record remaining to approximately 4.5% for the team with the best regular season record remaining.

For reference, the regular season standings for 2012-2013:
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/1

Note that because of playoff seeding, the teams in slots 23-30 are Brooklyn, Indiana, New York, LA Clippers, Denver, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Miami.

The bottom 4 teams (automatically in the top eight) are Orlando, Charlotte, Cleveland, and Phoenix.

In the first three replies to this post I will put up example draft lottery results to give a sense of how variable this can be.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 12:27:02 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2013, 12:18:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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First set of results:

1. Boston
2. Orlando
3. Cleveland
4. Charlotte
5. Phoenix
6. Milwaukee
7. LA Lakers
8. Sacramento

9. Toronto
10. Chicago
11. Portland
12. Minnesota
13. Golden State
14. Washington
15. New Orleans
16. Houston
17. Atlanta
18. Dallas
19. Memphis
20. Detroit
21. Philadelphia
22. Utah
23. Brooklyn
24. Indiana
25. New York
26. LA Clippers
27. Denver
28. San Antonio
29. Oklahoma City
30. Miami




Note:
Try not to overreact to this first set of results.  Wait to see at least three iterations before drawing conclusions about how extreme / unfair these results seem.

That said, I was surprised and amused by these results.  Boston getting the #1 overall was a fun result, but also one that totally vindicates the system -- a middling playoff team gets the #1 overall pick.  Perfect.

Notice also that Utah, by sheer bad luck, gets the #22 pick.  They aren't rewarded for just barely missing the playoffs.

Similarly, New Orleans ends up at #15 despite having the 5th worst record.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 12:24:21 PM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2013, 12:18:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Second set of results:

1. Dallas
2. Atlanta
3. Cleveland
4. Phoenix
5. Chicago
6. Charlotte
7. Orlando
8. Portland

9. New Orleans
10. Sacramento
11. LA Lakers
12. Minnesota
13. Golden State
14. Utah
15. Detroit
16. Boston
17. Houston
18. Memphis
19. Milwaukee
20. Washington
21. Philadelphia
22. Toronto
23. Brooklyn
24. Indiana
25. New York
26. LA Clippers
27. Denver
28. San Antonio
29. Oklahoma City
30. Miami


« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 12:48:35 PM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2013, 12:18:44 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Reserved for results #3
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2013, 12:42:02 PM »

Offline JJones1090

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I think I like the sentiment behind this. However, I see one issue. It still gives incentive to tank, it just makes teams have to go ALL OUT for the tank to secure a top draft pick (i.e. be a bottom four team).

Other than that it creates a lot of uncertainty. If I was a bottom tier team (particularly if I was bottom tier not by choice) then I would be pretty upset if someone who made it to the playoffs and performed relatively well drafted in front of me. I think in some ways it is necessary for crappy teams to draw first.

To me tanking is a strategy for management to speed up a rebuild. I think disallowing tanking and causing relative uncertainty for establishing draft order would do one of two things: 1) make teams REALLY tank...like try to lose every game for a bottom 4 team spot...which would alienate fan bases and erode the NBA, or 2) make it nearly impossible for some teams to ever do a timely rebuild.


I think draft order is just a lose-lose. Unless you win haha.

Edit: I'm reserving my overall judgment for when I see multople trials of how the picks play out. Those were just my initial thoughts. Also, TP.


Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2013, 12:44:11 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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It would be a tough sell, but I can see its merits. For all your hard work, TP.

I like the fact that the 22nd team can sneak into what was previously the lottery. That really does incentivize teams to play better. Although, two straight years of getting lucky for one fringe-playoff team and you've created a dynasty :P

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2013, 12:51:27 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think I like the sentiment behind this. However, I see one issue. It still gives incentive to tank, it just makes teams have to go ALL OUT for the tank to secure a top draft pick (i.e. be a bottom four team).

Other than that it creates a lot of uncertainty. If I was a bottom tier team (particularly if I was bottom tier not by choice) then I would be pretty upset if someone who made it to the playoffs and performed relatively well drafted in front of me. I think in some ways it is necessary for crappy teams to draw first.

To me tanking is a strategy for management to speed up a rebuild. I think disallowing tanking and causing relative uncertainty for establishing draft order would do one of two things: 1) make teams REALLY tank...like try to lose every game for a bottom 4 team spot...which would alienate fan bases and erode the NBA, or 2) make it nearly impossible for some teams to ever do a timely rebuild.


I think draft order is just a lose-lose. Unless you win haha.

Edit: I'm reserving my overall judgment for when I see multople trials of how the picks play out. Those were just my initial thoughts. Also, TP.


I see what you're saying here, but I don't really think that it's worse than the current system.  As it stands, if you can get one of the very worst records in the league, you're ensured of at least picking in the top 4 or 5 spots.  In this system, you could have the worst record and pick 8th.

Many people on these forums have articulated the reasons that all-out tanking is bad for your franchise and for fans.  You said it yourself -- you run the risk of alienating the fanbase.

I don't think many teams would be willing to go all-out to do that if there was a real chance they'd end up with the 6th, 7th, or 8th pick.

Especially since they could actually try to make the playoffs and entertain their fans and still have a decent chance at a top 8 pick.


Aside from that, I should note that I came up with numbers and ranges for this system kind of off-the-cuff.  I want to convey that the basic principles behind the system I've made up are what I think are most important.  A system like this could use different numbers.  It could guarantee only that the 4 worst teams pick in the top 10, instead of the top 8, and then randomly select from there.

The important thing to me is that the very worst teams can be assured of getting some quality help in the draft, but they can't count on getting a star to save them just because they were at the bottom of the league.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2013, 12:53:50 PM »

Offline Casperian

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I´ve tried something similar a few years ago.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=33676.0

What do you think?
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2013, 12:54:09 PM »

Offline dreamgreen

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IMO all non playoff teams should have equal chance, just 1 ball per team, wherever that lands is it. No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2013, 12:54:50 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Also, wouldn't this incentivize teams to try to "barely" make the playoffs? In other words, tank for the middle? That way, they can try their hardest come playoff time but still have a shot at the lottery.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2013, 12:55:42 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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After Orlando won the 1993 lottery, the NBA tweaked the formula to make it harder for the best non-playoff teams to win.  This idea is toast the moment some big-market team with one of the worst chances to win ends up with the #1 pick, leading everyone to cry that the system is rigged.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2013, 12:57:45 PM »

Offline JJones1090

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I think I like the sentiment behind this. However, I see one issue. It still gives incentive to tank, it just makes teams have to go ALL OUT for the tank to secure a top draft pick (i.e. be a bottom four team).

Other than that it creates a lot of uncertainty. If I was a bottom tier team (particularly if I was bottom tier not by choice) then I would be pretty upset if someone who made it to the playoffs and performed relatively well drafted in front of me. I think in some ways it is necessary for crappy teams to draw first.

To me tanking is a strategy for management to speed up a rebuild. I think disallowing tanking and causing relative uncertainty for establishing draft order would do one of two things: 1) make teams REALLY tank...like try to lose every game for a bottom 4 team spot...which would alienate fan bases and erode the NBA, or 2) make it nearly impossible for some teams to ever do a timely rebuild.


I think draft order is just a lose-lose. Unless you win haha.

Edit: I'm reserving my overall judgment for when I see multople trials of how the picks play out. Those were just my initial thoughts. Also, TP.


I see what you're saying here, but I don't really think that it's worse than the current system.  As it stands, if you can get one of the very worst records in the league, you're ensured of at least picking in the top 4 or 5 spots.  In this system, you could have the worst record and pick 8th.

Many people on these forums have articulated the reasons that all-out tanking is bad for your franchise and for fans.  You said it yourself -- you run the risk of alienating the fanbase.

I don't think many teams would be willing to go all-out to do that if there was a real chance they'd end up with the 6th, 7th, or 8th pick.

Especially since they could actually try to make the playoffs and entertain their fans and still have a decent chance at a top 8 pick.


Aside from that, I should note that I came up with numbers and ranges for this system kind of off-the-cuff.  I want to convey that the basic principles behind the system I've made up are what I think are most important.  A system like this could use different numbers.  It could guarantee only that the 4 worst teams pick in the top 10, instead of the top 8, and then randomly select from there.

The important thing to me is that the very worst teams can be assured of getting some quality help in the draft, but they can't count on getting a star to save them just because they were at the bottom of the league.

Good point. That's what I meant by it's a lose-lose. No matter what you do to the draft system it won't fix the problems people have with it. It'll just create new ones or be a moderate relief from the old ones. Like the poster below me said, if a fringe playoff team gets lucky twice they have a dynasty on their hands.

I do like your system though. I think it's well thought-out.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2013, 01:00:04 PM »

Offline JJones1090

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No more behind closed doors fixed BS. Do it on national TV and get rid of tanking.

That alone would be a big step forward in my opinion.

Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2013, 01:00:59 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I´ve tried something similar a few years ago.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=33676.0

What do you think?

I like the reasoning and goals behind your system a lot.  I agree that we seem to be on the same page there.

I think your system is much more creative than mine, but also represents an even more radical change from how the system currently works.

I guess I'd have to see your system in action over the course of a season or two (to see how teams strategize and function in response to having these chips).

I like that your system prevents teams from purposefully being bad for a single season and getting a top pick (e.g. the Spurs).  My concern would be that some general managers would hurt their franchises by hoarding points over several seasons and declining to make high picks in the hopes that they can blow it all on one star at the top of a "loaded" draft -- e.g. Wiggins.

I guess that just means that your system rewards better management and punishes worse management, which is a good thing.  It might be too harsh, though.  Even more so than the current draft system -- or even my proposed system -- it means that having a bad GM could screw your franchise over for years and years.
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Re: Creating a New Draft Lottery System
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2013, 01:03:47 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Also, wouldn't this incentivize teams to try to "barely" make the playoffs? In other words, tank for the middle? That way, they can try their hardest come playoff time but still have a shot at the lottery.

Read through the post again (I know it's long and maybe convoluted).

There's barely any difference in your chances if you make the playoffs or just manage to make the playoffs.

The only real major cutoffs are between the 4th worst record and the 5th worst record, and between the 4th seeded teams and the 5th seeded teams.

The first cutoff presents a problem, but is arguably not nearly as bad as what we have now; the second cutoff I am assuming wouldn't be so bad because getting to host a playoff series is a pretty strong incentive.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain