Author Topic: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk  (Read 3924 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline jyyzzoel

  • Jared Sullinger
  • Posts: 311
  • Tommy Points: 39
A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« on: June 28, 2013, 05:54:30 AM »
Who do the NUMBERS say Kelly Olynyk compares to?  Notice I say numbers, not playing style.

First of all, not to get everyone down, but all of his measurements evened out compare VERY well with Brian Scalabrine.

Luckily, Olynyk is more skilled than Brian Scalabrine.

According to college PER, EFF/40, WS/40, adjusted for age, Olynyk compares to:

*  Tyler Zeller          x (closest)
*  Kyle O Quinn          x
*  Greg Smith            x
*  Spencer Hawes         x
*  Shelden Williams      x
*  Aaron Gray            x
*  Jason Thompson        x
*  Meyers Leonard        x
*  DJ White              ?
*  David Lee             x
*  Shavlik Randolph      ?
*  Channing Frye         x
*  Luc Mbah-A-Moute      x
*  Taj Gibson            x
*  Jordan Hill           x
*  Luis Scola            ?

Yes, I know there is a huge difference between David Lee and DJ White, but I will explain. 

The x's are for the players above that have a wingspan either matching or lower than Olynyk's.  That's right - nobody does.

So, so far we've established:
1. Other than the fact that he is about three inches taller than Scalabrine, Olynyk has the same physical abilities.

2.  Olynyk has a small wingspan.

Now, of the players listed above (who played at a US college) Olynyk did have the highest college PER of 37.  Meyers Leonard and Greg Smith did however have a higher PER than Olynyk did, if you compare their second years in college. Olynyk had a PER of 20.5.  Leonard 23.9, and Smith 21.6.

Of all the players above, Olynyk had the second best EFF/40 of 32.1.  The first and third were Shelden Williams with 32.3, and Jason Thompson with 31.1.

Olynyk also ranked fourth in terms of WS/40 with 15.7.  This was behind Gray 17.6, Williams 17.3, and Zeller 16.2.

Now everyone may say, "But you're drafting on potential.  Look at David Lee who had similar numbers than the rest of them in college!  He turned out to be great!"  True. 

But David Lee has a no step vertical of 30.5, and a max vertical of 32.5.  This is to go along with a 7 foot wingspan, lane agility of 10.8, and 3/4 sprint of 3.19. 

Olynyk on the other hand has a no step vert of 24.5 and a max vertical of 29.5.  He has a 6'9.75" wingspan, lane agility of 11.42, and a 3/4 sprint of 3.59.  Long story short, he doesnt have as much potential as David Lee did coming out of college.

He probably won't be as good as David Lee (or Meyers Leonard for that matter), so don't hope for that.

Professionally, his numbers should be:

A PER between 14 - 18 (18 being his ABSOLUTE maximum - head up in the clouds).  But throughout his career he will probably average a PER of around about 16.

A EFF/40 of about 20.

A WS/40 of between 11 - 12

The one thing that could allow Olynyk to hover in the upper tier of these projections would be his ability to shoot.  His 2PT% for his fourth year in college is 66% compared to David Lee's 53.2%.  Although Lee did have a year where it was 64.8%.

Because of his shooting ability I would guess that he'll get played at the power forward spot more than the center spot.

Lastly, I don't like the pick.  I really don't like it.  Danny could have traded down and grabbed two players even in the second round who could end up being as good as Olynyk.  It's my guess based on everything I've written in this post (and it is purely a guess), that Danny Ainge thought that due to his offensive game, and the fact that he is a 7 footer, Olynyk is the new David Lee, and for that reason traded up to grab his with the 13th pick.

But Olynyk is not David Lee.  It was a bad pick in my opinion.

Offline chambers

  • Bailey Howell
  • ***
  • Posts: 3081
  • Tommy Points: 331
  • Banner 18...all that matters.
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2013, 06:15:18 AM »
I think he's also promising because of how rapidly he progressed after redshirting and concentrating/working on his game.
I'm not so sure about the pick either, especially when Shabbaz was on the board among others.

Here's the summary from a positive perspective or Ainge's point of view...

*He's got excellent footwork
*He can shoot/stretch the floor
*He finishes around the rim with contact and is probably the best finishing 7 footer in the draft.
*Because of his footwork, Danny feels they can make him into a very good defenser. He's also very good at defending and running pick and rolls.

I was surprised at the pick but I don't completely hate it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?b=1&v=UWlJiz1X8q0

"Game 4: 4 minutes 28 seconds 87-81
Game 5:2 minutes 28 seconds 84-81
These are scores in the 4th period and time left in Games 4 and 5 in 2011 versus the Heat. The Celtics were ahead in both games and Rondo was hurt, playing with one arm."  -Pearl 131  So close, yet so far.

Offline CFAN38

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1717
  • Tommy Points: 92
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2013, 07:39:44 AM »
One thing that people need to keep in mind with Kelly is that DA projects him as a stretch 4. He obviously will have to prove in the summer league and his rookie year that he has the range to play this position. If he proves to have NBA 3pt range I could see him as a player in the Troy Murphy mold. I also am encouraged by the fact that he has a 9' standing reach despite a relatively short wingspan.

Offline PhoSita

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • ****
  • Posts: 4697
  • Tommy Points: 301
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2013, 07:49:08 AM »
I see him as something like a Ty Hansbrough / Spencer Hawes hybrid who shoots threes.
"You're never as good as you think you are, you're never as bad as you think you are, and you're never far from either."

- Brad Stevens, the Philosopher Coach.

Offline Snakehead

  • Bailey Howell
  • ***
  • Posts: 3453
  • Tommy Points: 177
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2013, 08:35:40 AM »
Kind of a confusing analysis.  You don't acknowledge any of his strengths.  He is a better low post scorer and jump shooter than almost all the players you compared him to coming in and you give him no credit for that.


"I really don't want people to understand me." - Jordan Crawford

Offline PhoSita

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • ****
  • Posts: 4697
  • Tommy Points: 301
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2013, 08:37:13 AM »
Kind of a confusing analysis.  You don't acknowledge any of his strengths.  He is a better low post scorer and jump shooter than almost all the players you compared him to coming in and you give him no credit for that.

Yup.  This looked like an extremely biased analysis from the get-go (Scalabrine comparisons) so I didn't even do much more than lightly skim it.
"You're never as good as you think you are, you're never as bad as you think you are, and you're never far from either."

- Brad Stevens, the Philosopher Coach.

Offline BballTim

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21168
  • Tommy Points: 945
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2013, 08:43:41 AM »
Who do the NUMBERS say Kelly Olynyk compares to?  Notice I say numbers, not playing style.

First of all, not to get everyone down, but all of his measurements evened out compare VERY well with Brian Scalabrine.

Luckily, Olynyk is more skilled than Brian Scalabrine.

According to college PER, EFF/40, WS/40, adjusted for age, Olynyk compares to:

*  Tyler Zeller          x (closest)
*  Kyle O Quinn          x
*  Greg Smith            x
*  Spencer Hawes         x
*  Shelden Williams      x
*  Aaron Gray            x
*  Jason Thompson        x
*  Meyers Leonard        x
*  DJ White              ?
*  David Lee             x
*  Shavlik Randolph      ?
*  Channing Frye         x
*  Luc Mbah-A-Moute      x
*  Taj Gibson            x
*  Jordan Hill           x
*  Luis Scola            ?

Yes, I know there is a huge difference between David Lee and DJ White, but I will explain. 

The x's are for the players above that have a wingspan either matching or lower than Olynyk's.  That's right - nobody does.

So, so far we've established:
1. Other than the fact that he is about three inches taller than Scalabrine, Olynyk has the same physical abilities.

2.  Olynyk has a small wingspan.

Now, of the players listed above (who played at a US college) Olynyk did have the highest college PER of 37.  Meyers Leonard and Greg Smith did however have a higher PER than Olynyk did, if you compare their second years in college. Olynyk had a PER of 20.5.  Leonard 23.9, and Smith 21.6.

Of all the players above, Olynyk had the second best EFF/40 of 32.1.  The first and third were Shelden Williams with 32.3, and Jason Thompson with 31.1.

Olynyk also ranked fourth in terms of WS/40 with 15.7.  This was behind Gray 17.6, Williams 17.3, and Zeller 16.2.

Now everyone may say, "But you're drafting on potential.  Look at David Lee who had similar numbers than the rest of them in college!  He turned out to be great!"  True. 

But David Lee has a no step vertical of 30.5, and a max vertical of 32.5.  This is to go along with a 7 foot wingspan, lane agility of 10.8, and 3/4 sprint of 3.19. 

Olynyk on the other hand has a no step vert of 24.5 and a max vertical of 29.5.  He has a 6'9.75" wingspan, lane agility of 11.42, and a 3/4 sprint of 3.59.  Long story short, he doesnt have as much potential as David Lee did coming out of college.

He probably won't be as good as David Lee (or Meyers Leonard for that matter), so don't hope for that.

Professionally, his numbers should be:

A PER between 14 - 18 (18 being his ABSOLUTE maximum - head up in the clouds).  But throughout his career he will probably average a PER of around about 16.

A EFF/40 of about 20.

A WS/40 of between 11 - 12

The one thing that could allow Olynyk to hover in the upper tier of these projections would be his ability to shoot.  His 2PT% for his fourth year in college is 66% compared to David Lee's 53.2%.  Although Lee did have a year where it was 64.8%.

Because of his shooting ability I would guess that he'll get played at the power forward spot more than the center spot.

Lastly, I don't like the pick.  I really don't like it.  Danny could have traded down and grabbed two players even in the second round who could end up being as good as Olynyk.  It's my guess based on everything I've written in this post (and it is purely a guess), that Danny Ainge thought that due to his offensive game, and the fact that he is a 7 footer, Olynyk is the new David Lee, and for that reason traded up to grab his with the 13th pick.

But Olynyk is not David Lee.  It was a bad pick in my opinion.

  I don't see anything in your post that would lead anyone to think Danny thinks he's the new David Lee.

Offline erisred

  • Jeff Green
  • Posts: 539
  • Tommy Points: 32
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2013, 03:54:45 PM »
Standing reach is 9'0", that's not bad, not great, but not bad. His wingspan *is* bad for his height, though. So, what does that mean?  I think it means he has narrow shoulders. Narrow shoulders might mean he'll have a hard time putting on a lot of upper body muscle...for better or worse.

He measured a pretty poor standing and one-step jump, but 9 + 2 feet is still 11 so he can dunk and block the occasional shot. No rim-protector, but with footwork and quick feet (which he has) he should be fine as a positional defender.

The big men in this draft were nothing to write home about, but Olynyk was still one of the top guys available...worth a 13th pick, I think. How good well he be? So, shoot me, but I think he'll be able good as Sullinger except a worse rebounder.

Online triboy16f

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • ****
  • Posts: 4621
  • Tommy Points: 155
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2013, 08:56:19 PM »


i thought i share this link. Sounds humble and talks pretty smart. But if you watch some of his workout clips while he interviews, he looks like he has more "snap" in his jump than we have seen from nbadraftexpress scouting videos.  Definitely promising to see.

His body like Sully is going to improve as the season goes along. We will see how much this elevates his game. His offense is there, we just need him to be in condition to not be a liability on the defensive end.
Surprising players happen all the time -- that's why they're called surprises.

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2013, 09:09:16 PM »
The Klynyk is solid.  I just don't understand how someone can not be happy with a 7ft with high basketball IQ, clean character, great work ethic and refined skill set.  He's been playing basketball since he was a kid and his father is a coach.  He also has been successful playing at the pro level with the Canadian team.  That is as much of a sure thing as we can have in the NBA.  He may never be a star, although it is certainly possible.  He will also not be a bust. 
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Offline Bankshot

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7491
  • Tommy Points: 631
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2013, 09:12:17 PM »
Standing reach is 9'0", that's not bad, not great, but not bad. His wingspan *is* bad for his height, though. So, what does that mean?  I think it means he has narrow shoulders. Narrow shoulders might mean he'll have a hard time putting on a lot of upper body muscle...for better or worse.

He measured a pretty poor standing and one-step jump, but 9 + 2 feet is still 11 so he can dunk and block the occasional shot. No rim-protector, but with footwork and quick feet (which he has) he should be fine as a positional defender.

The big men in this draft were nothing to write home about, but Olynyk was still one of the top guys available...worth a 13th pick, I think. How good well he be? So, shoot me, but I think he'll be able good as Sullinger except a worse rebounder.

I remember this was in Joakim Noah's college profile.
"If somebody would have told you when he was playing with the Knicks that Nate Robinson was going to change a big time game and he was going to do it mostly because of his defense, somebody would have got slapped."  Mark Jackson

Offline jaketwice

  • Rajon Rondo
  • Posts: 953
  • Tommy Points: 72
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2013, 09:15:35 PM »
Who does what he does? He is an easy guy to make into an asset. Lots of sloppy thinking on this board abou what is really going on here. This guy will light it the f*** up on a bad team, and is a positional nightmare for the defense. 

How does serge ibaka get a rebound from the perimeter?

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2013, 09:22:28 PM »
Who does what he does? He is an easy guy to make into an asset. Lots of sloppy thinking on this board abou what is really going on here. This guy will light it the f*** up on a bad team, and is a positional nightmare for the defense. 

How does serge ibaka get a rebound from the perimeter?
I agree with your sentiment that Olynyk is a nice player.  But I have some trouble understanding your question. 

How does a guy that dunked from the free throw line (Ibaka) get a rebound over a much less athletic guy (Olynyk) shooting from further out in the perimeter?  I believe the answer is: easily. 
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Offline jaketwice

  • Rajon Rondo
  • Posts: 953
  • Tommy Points: 72
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2013, 09:28:11 PM »
Who does what he does? He is an easy guy to make into an asset. Lots of sloppy thinking on this board abou what is really going on here. This guy will light it the f*** up on a bad team, and is a positional nightmare for the defense. 

How does serge ibaka get a rebound from the perimeter?
I agree with your sentiment that Olynyk is a nice player.  But I have some trouble understanding your question. 

How does a guy that dunked from the free throw line (Ibaka) get a rebound over a much less athletic guy (Olynyk) shooting from further out in the perimeter?  I believe the answer is: easily.

Ibaka is not getting a rebound over Green, or whoever else is on the block if he is guarding Olynyk on the perimeter. Olynyk is not getting that reboud either - too true! But many PFs serve as the primary defensive rebounder for their teams. Getting those guys out of position is valuable.

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1606
  • Tommy Points: 255
Re: A thorough ANALYSIS and career projection of Kelly Olynyk
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2013, 09:32:18 PM »
Who does what he does? He is an easy guy to make into an asset. Lots of sloppy thinking on this board abou what is really going on here. This guy will light it the f*** up on a bad team, and is a positional nightmare for the defense. 

How does serge ibaka get a rebound from the perimeter?
I agree with your sentiment that Olynyk is a nice player.  But I have some trouble understanding your question. 

How does a guy that dunked from the free throw line (Ibaka) get a rebound over a much less athletic guy (Olynyk) shooting from further out in the perimeter?  I believe the answer is: easily.

Ibaka is not getting a rebound over Green, or whoever else is on the block if he is guarding Olynyk on the perimeter. Olynyk is not getting that reboud either - too true! But many PFs serve as the primary defensive rebounder for their teams. Getting those guys out of position is valuable.

I understand what you said, but in your hypothetical Green would be guarding Kevin Durant who happens to be a much better rebounder than Green. 

The benefit of dragging Ibaka to the perimeter is not to get the rebound, but to draw the shot blocker away from the paint opening lines of attack for Rondo, Bradley and Green.
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

 

Hello! Guest

Welcome to the CelticsBlog Forums.

Welcome to CelticsBlog