Who do the NUMBERS say Kelly Olynyk compares to? Notice I say numbers, not playing style.
First of all, not to get everyone down, but all of his measurements evened out compare VERY well with Brian Scalabrine.
Luckily, Olynyk is more skilled than Brian Scalabrine.
According to college PER, EFF/40, WS/40, adjusted for age, Olynyk compares to:
* Tyler Zeller x (closest)
* Kyle O Quinn x
* Greg Smith x
* Spencer Hawes x
* Shelden Williams x
* Aaron Gray x
* Jason Thompson x
* Meyers Leonard x
* DJ White ?
* David Lee x
* Shavlik Randolph ?
* Channing Frye x
* Luc Mbah-A-Moute x
* Taj Gibson x
* Jordan Hill x
* Luis Scola ?
Yes, I know there is a huge difference between David Lee and DJ White, but I will explain.
The x's are for the players above that have a wingspan either matching or lower than Olynyk's. That's right - nobody does.
So, so far we've established:
1. Other than the fact that he is about three inches taller than Scalabrine, Olynyk has the same physical abilities.
2. Olynyk has a small wingspan.
Now, of the players listed above (who played at a US college) Olynyk did have the highest college PER of 37. Meyers Leonard and Greg Smith did however have a higher PER than Olynyk did, if you compare their second years in college. Olynyk had a PER of 20.5. Leonard 23.9, and Smith 21.6.
Of all the players above, Olynyk had the second best EFF/40 of 32.1. The first and third were Shelden Williams with 32.3, and Jason Thompson with 31.1.
Olynyk also ranked fourth in terms of WS/40 with 15.7. This was behind Gray 17.6, Williams 17.3, and Zeller 16.2.
Now everyone may say, "But you're drafting on potential. Look at David Lee who had similar numbers than the rest of them in college! He turned out to be great!" True.
But David Lee has a no step vertical of 30.5, and a max vertical of 32.5. This is to go along with a 7 foot wingspan, lane agility of 10.8, and 3/4 sprint of 3.19.
Olynyk on the other hand has a no step vert of 24.5 and a max vertical of 29.5. He has a 6'9.75" wingspan, lane agility of 11.42, and a 3/4 sprint of 3.59. Long story short, he doesnt have as much potential as David Lee did coming out of college.
He probably won't be as good as David Lee (or Meyers Leonard for that matter), so don't hope for that.
Professionally, his numbers should be:
A PER between 14 - 18 (18 being his ABSOLUTE maximum - head up in the clouds). But throughout his career he will probably average a PER of around about 16.
A EFF/40 of about 20.
A WS/40 of between 11 - 12
The one thing that could allow Olynyk to hover in the upper tier of these projections would be his ability to shoot. His 2PT% for his fourth year in college is 66% compared to David Lee's 53.2%. Although Lee did have a year where it was 64.8%.
Because of his shooting ability I would guess that he'll get played at the power forward spot more than the center spot.
Lastly, I don't like the pick. I really don't like it. Danny could have traded down and grabbed two players even in the second round who could end up being as good as Olynyk. It's my guess based on everything I've written in this post (and it is purely a guess), that Danny Ainge thought that due to his offensive game, and the fact that he is a 7 footer, Olynyk is the new David Lee, and for that reason traded up to grab his with the 13th pick.
But Olynyk is not David Lee. It was a bad pick in my opinion.