What do you think is Avery Bradley's trade value?

[#1P4P]

Hilarious how one playoff series has supposedly devalued a 23 year old that was elected as one of the 2 guards elected to the 2nd All-Defensive team. His rankings on the defensive side of the ball were ridiculously good this season and GM's and coaches took note.

Avery's value is good. We'll see what type of contract Tony Allen is able to sign this summer. That will give us an idea of what Avery is in range of (at this point), but at 23 to TA's 31 and having room to improve offensively, his value is more than Allen's.

On the trade market though, offense reigns supreme (unless it's a center), so a young defensive specialist (which is what Avery is at this point) will only get you so much.

[LarBrd33]

From Chris Forsberg:

"As good as Bradley was defensively, he struggled just as mightily offensively. After shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor during the 2011-12 season, feasting on backdoor cuts and 3-point shots, Bradley's field goal percentage dipped to 40.2 percent this season and that included a pronounced drop from beyond the arc (dipping from 40.7 percent to 31.7 percent). The loss of Rondo undoubtedly hurt him, particularly with increased ball-handling responsibilities, but Bradley simply never found an offensive rhythm. According to Synergy Sports data, Bradley averaged just 0.803 points per play this season, ranking him in the 24th percentile among all league players. Put another way: Of all players with at least his 574 total offensive possessions, Bradley ranked 183rd out of 187 qualifying players (the only ones worse: Rondo, Michael Beasley, Alexey Shved, and Ricky Rubio). Here's two more [dang]ing stats to consider: The Celtics were plus-26 when Bradley was off the court, but minus-44 when he was on it. And despite his individual defensive efforts, Boston's defensive rating actually remained nearly static with (100.3) or without (100.4) him. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4705075/report-card-avery-bradley-3

[Celtics4ever]

We all know ESPN is unfailible.

Fans vote on that poll, it is about as empirical and factual as throwing a dart at a dart board blind.

I think he is a light's out defender.   He is a good athlete and cutter but his shooting his bad.

His 3p% as a HS senior was 38.6%.  His college 3P% was 37.5%.   It's quite reasonable to believe that 2011-2012 is closer to his true 3P shooting ability than 2012-2013.

I doubt it, the pro shot is a longer shot.   Good shooters shoot a helluva lot higher than that from 20 feet.   I have seen guys shoot 60 of them and hit 31 for the season that is over 51%.  Green tinted thinking.

[BballTim]

This comment is obviously not directed at everybody but It's amazing how fast some have soured on Bradley. I remember people saying not horribly long ago that a Bradley/Cousins swap was pretty fair.

Then if he comes out next year and gets off to a really hot start he will likely go back to being an elite prospect to some.

Gotta love New England sports.

It was predictable though.  It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see that his hype was generated by an insane month of hot shooting.  His shooting in high school, college, his rookie season, early 2012 and the playoffs all pointed to the very possible reality that his hot month during in a lockout shortened season was nothing more than a fluke... and people were ignoring the struggles he had on the defensive end against larger guards.

His popularity predictably fell to reality again when he struggled all season.  Still, there are some homers who refuse to let go of the dream... pointing to the absence of Rondo and the possibility of post-injury rust as the reason for Avery's lackluster season. 

He is what I always thought he was.  A poor man's Tony Allen with less offense and without the mental lapses.  Either that or Rich Man's Marcus Banks.  You could probably fetch a late 1st rounder for him.

  I'm somehow reminded of the thread you started comparing Bradley favorably to Rondo at the same point in their careers.

[hardlyyardley]

His worth is about where he was picked

[kozlodoev]

From Chris Forsberg:

"As good as Bradley was defensively, he struggled just as mightily offensively. After shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor during the 2011-12 season, feasting on backdoor cuts and 3-point shots, Bradley's field goal percentage dipped to 40.2 percent this season and that included a pronounced drop from beyond the arc (dipping from 40.7 percent to 31.7 percent). The loss of Rondo undoubtedly hurt him, particularly with increased ball-handling responsibilities, but Bradley simply never found an offensive rhythm. According to Synergy Sports data, Bradley averaged just 0.803 points per play this season, ranking him in the 24th percentile among all league players. Put another way: Of all players with at least his 574 total offensive possessions, Bradley ranked 183rd out of 187 qualifying players (the only ones worse: Rondo, Michael Beasley, Alexey Shved, and Ricky Rubio). Here's two more [dang]ing stats to consider: The Celtics were plus-26 when Bradley was off the court, but minus-44 when he was on it. And despite his individual defensive efforts, Boston's defensive rating actually remained nearly static with (100.3) or without (100.4) him. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4705075/report-card-avery-bradley-3

"dang-ing" stats to consider, really -- I'm sorry, but if our profanity filters alters something that was published in a national media outlet, then our profanity filter is just dumb. there, i said it.

also, Bradley was not simply poor offensively this season -- he was a catastrophe of epic proportions. and the main reason for that was that he was exposed for his complete inability to do anything offensively unless he's wide open.

yeah, all the feasting last year was great, but all the feasting came because no-one paid attention to him. he sure has value, but there's no reason to expect anyone will give you a top-tier player and/or pick for a package of Bradley and a first rounder. so he probably has more value to us than to anyone else, which makes him pretty much untradeable.

[mmmmm]

It was predictable though.  It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see that his hype was generated by an insane month of hot shooting.  His shooting in high school, college, his rookie season, early 2012 and the playoffs all pointed to the very possible reality that his hot month during in a lockout shortened season was nothing more than a fluke... and people were ignoring the struggles he had on the defensive end against larger guards.

His 3p% as a HS senior was 38.6%.  His college 3P% was 37.5%.  It's quite reasonable to believe that 2011-2012 is closer to his true 3P shooting ability than 2012-2013.

Expanding on this, Avery shot 37% from 3PT range in the D-League.

The one 'insane month' criticism should be looked at in detail:  In Avery's NBA career, since he finally became a 'regular' mid-way through last season, he has the following monthly splits:

Year	Month	G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%
2012	Jan	15	31	77	40%	1	11	9%
2012	Feb	13	30	56	54%	0	1	0%
2012	Mar	17	46	86	54%	3	9	33%
2012	April	15	93	179	52%	18	33	55%
2013	Jan	14	48	118	41%	15	46	33%
2013	Feb	12	54	128	42%	6	25	24%
2013	Mar	16	56	154	36%	11	32	34%
2013	April	8	34	78	44%	8	23	35%

His total line for that span is:

G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%
110	392	876	45%	62	180	34%

It seems to me that the criticism that his supporters are skewed by one month of hot shooting (april, 2012) are sort of balanced by the counter that he's only had one month of truly atrocious shooting (February, 2013).

The truth is he's not likely to be a 55% 3PT shooter OR a 24% shooter long term.

I've always maintained that his longer term numbers are likely to settle somewhere close to his long term H.S, College and D-League numbers.  I.E, he'll likely be somewhere around a 35-38% 3PT shooter.   He's sitting just below that right now, coming off a year where he clearly was not all the way back from double-shoulder surgery.

I am pretty confident that next year he'll finally start to settle in as an overall 3PT shooter somewhere around the 37% range.

And at that level, he should be very valuable.

[fantankerous]

Hilarious how one playoff series has supposedly devalued a 23 year old that was elected as one of the 2 guards elected to the 2nd All-Defensive team. His rankings on the defensive side of the ball were ridiculously good this season and GM's and coaches took note.

Avery's value is good. We'll see what type of contract Tony Allen is able to sign this summer. That will give us an idea of what Avery is in range of (at this point), but at 23 to TA's 31 and having room to improve offensively, his value is more than Allen's.

On the trade market though, offense reigns supreme (unless it's a center), so a young defensive specialist (which is what Avery is at this point) will only get you so much.

So somehow the very same GMs who note Avery's supreme defensive abilities (and currently value him more than Tony Allen!) magically forget this when they pick up the phone?

Pure nonsense. 

[kozlodoev]

I've always maintained that his longer term numbers are likely to settle somewhere close to his long term H.S, College and D-League numbers.  I.E, he'll likely be somewhere around a 35-38% 3PT shooter.   He's sitting just below that right now, coming off a year where he clearly was not all the way back from double-shoulder surgery.

If you throw out the two extremes (and even if you don't, for that matter), he's clearly shaping out to be a 33-34% three-point shooter. I have no idea why you think he'll ever be able to sustain 38%. 33%, for the record, is nothing to write home about -- the average NBA SG is a 36% three-point shooter these days.

[Boris Badenov]

The killer for Bradley, as this thread indicates, is the ambiguity. Three years in, and we do not have definitive answers to some very basic questions:

Can he consistently guard SGs?
Can he consistently guard bigger PGs?
What position should he play most often?
Can he ever become an adequate enough ball-handler to play PG, even in spurts?
Can he be a starter at either position?
Will he ever be an average or better 3 point shooter?
Can he develop a jumper, or some other offensive weapon?

Right now we know that he can create absolute havoc as an on-the-ball defender of opposing PGs. That seems, to me, undisputable.

But the unknowns, about critical aspects of his game, far outweigh the knowns. The injury plays a role, but I think that can be overstated - he's missed half a season out of 3.

One other comment, about trade value specifically: AB's probably varies tremendously from team to team. I think CLE or GSW would jump for joy to have him, because he can play alongside Irving/Curry, who have enough offensive firepower all on their own, and AB frees them up by defending the best backcourt scorer at either position, because those guys are also bigger and can defend many SGs.

[mmmmm]

I've always maintained that his longer term numbers are likely to settle somewhere close to his long term H.S, College and D-League numbers.  I.E, he'll likely be somewhere around a 35-38% 3PT shooter.   He's sitting just below that right now, coming off a year where he clearly was not all the way back from double-shoulder surgery.

If you throw out the two extremes (and even if you don't, for that matter), he's clearly shaping out to be a 33-34% three-point shooter. I have no idea why you think he'll ever be able to sustain 38%. 33%, for the record, is nothing to write home about -- the average NBA SG is a 36% three-point shooter these days.

Because that is the rate at which he has shot at other levels.

At every level when he's gotten consistent, solid mpg, he has shot well until THIS last half of a season.  And this last sample is the one that has the most reason to be anomalous, given that he was coming off a long lay-off due the double-shoulder surgery.

He has very good catch-and-release form fundamentals.  He's young and a hard worker.  I don't see any reason to believe he _won't_ settle in at a rate higher than he shot this season.

[LarBrd33]

It was predictable though.  It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see that his hype was generated by an insane month of hot shooting.  His shooting in high school, college, his rookie season, early 2012 and the playoffs all pointed to the very possible reality that his hot month during in a lockout shortened season was nothing more than a fluke... and people were ignoring the struggles he had on the defensive end against larger guards.

His 3p% as a HS senior was 38.6%.  His college 3P% was 37.5%.  It's quite reasonable to believe that 2011-2012 is closer to his true 3P shooting ability than 2012-2013.

Expanding on this, Avery shot 37% from 3PT range in the D-League.

The one 'insane month' criticism should be looked at in detail:  In Avery's NBA career, since he finally became a 'regular' mid-way through last season, he has the following monthly splits:

Year	Month	G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%
2012	Jan	15	31	77	40%	1	11	9%
2012	Feb	13	30	56	54%	0	1	0%
2012	Mar	17	46	86	54%	3	9	33%
2012	April	15	93	179	52%	18	33	55%
2013	Jan	14	48	118	41%	15	46	33%
2013	Feb	12	54	128	42%	6	25	24%
2013	Mar	16	56	154	36%	11	32	34%
2013	April	8	34	78	44%	8	23	35%

His total line for that span is:

G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%
110	392	876	45%	62	180	34%

It seems to me that the criticism that his supporters are skewed by one month of hot shooting (april, 2012) are sort of balanced by the counter that he's only had one month of truly atrocious shooting (February, 2013).

The truth is he's not likely to be a 55% 3PT shooter OR a 24% shooter long term.

I've always maintained that his longer term numbers are likely to settle somewhere close to his long term H.S, College and D-League numbers.  I.E, he'll likely be somewhere around a 35-38% 3PT shooter.   He's sitting just below that right now, coming off a year where he clearly was not all the way back from double-shoulder surgery.

I am pretty confident that next year he'll finally start to settle in as an overall 3PT shooter somewhere around the 37% range.

And at that level, he should be very valuable.

And there you have it... April 2012... when everyone on this forum lost their mind.  Thanks for the clear breakdown.  This clearly shows that he's one of the weakest offensive players in the league despite his insane month of April 2012.


Honestly though, I'm in favor of hanging onto Bradley as a long-term solution at PG.  Bradley isn't a shooting guard.  He's too weak offensively and too small.  But he could be a solid role playing defensive point guard.   If we could get a star quality big for Rondo, I'd be cool with keeping Bradley.  There have been plenty of teams to win titles with Derrick Fisher-level players starting in the PG spot by default.  Bradley can probably grow into a player who is less of a liability on the offensive end and his defense can prove to be valuable.  Now all we need is a few superstar players to lead us to contention and we can use Bradley as a PG-Stopper in a league loaded with quality PGs. 

[SHAQATTACK]

I'm for giving him another year to play along side Rondo and see what happens.

It looks bleak to me,   DA pull a rabbit out your hat. 

[Boris Badenov]

I'm for giving him another year to play along side Rondo and see what happens.

It looks bleak to me,   DA pull a rabbit out your hat. 

It could also be the case that he would thrive with a change of scenery. Different role, different system, etc.

That's what I'm telling other GMs if I'm Danny, anyway.

[CelticConcourse]

It was predictable though.  It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see that his hype was generated by an insane month of hot shooting.  His shooting in high school, college, his rookie season, early 2012 and the playoffs all pointed to the very possible reality that his hot month during in a lockout shortened season was nothing more than a fluke... and people were ignoring the struggles he had on the defensive end against larger guards.

His 3p% as a HS senior was 38.6%.  His college 3P% was 37.5%.  It's quite reasonable to believe that 2011-2012 is closer to his true 3P shooting ability than 2012-2013.

Expanding on this, Avery shot 37% from 3PT range in the D-League.

The one 'insane month' criticism should be looked at in detail:  In Avery's NBA career, since he finally became a 'regular' mid-way through last season, he has the following monthly splits:

Year	Month	G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%
2012	Jan	15	31	77	40%	1	11	9%
2012	Feb	13	30	56	54%	0	1	0%
2012	Mar	17	46	86	54%	3	9	33%
2012	April	15	93	179	52%	18	33	55%
2013	Jan	14	48	118	41%	15	46	33%
2013	Feb	12	54	128	42%	6	25	24%
2013	Mar	16	56	154	36%	11	32	34%
2013	April	8	34	78	44%	8	23	35%

His total line for that span is:

G	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%
110	392	876	45%	62	180	34%

It seems to me that the criticism that his supporters are skewed by one month of hot shooting (april, 2012) are sort of balanced by the counter that he's only had one month of truly atrocious shooting (February, 2013).

The truth is he's not likely to be a 55% 3PT shooter OR a 24% shooter long term.

I've always maintained that his longer term numbers are likely to settle somewhere close to his long term H.S, College and D-League numbers.  I.E, he'll likely be somewhere around a 35-38% 3PT shooter.   He's sitting just below that right now, coming off a year where he clearly was not all the way back from double-shoulder surgery.

I am pretty confident that next year he'll finally start to settle in as an overall 3PT shooter somewhere around the 37% range.

And at that level, he should be very valuable.

And there you have it... April 2012... when everyone on this forum lost their mind.  Thanks for the clear breakdown.  This clearly shows that he's one of the weakest offensive players in the league despite his insane month of April 2012.


Honestly though, I'm in favor of hanging onto Bradley as a long-term solution at PG.  Bradley isn't a shooting guard.  He's too weak offensively and too small.  But he could be a solid role playing defensive point guard.   If we could get a star quality big for Rondo, I'd be cool with keeping Bradley.  There have been plenty of teams to win titles with Derrick Fisher-level players starting in the PG spot by default.  Bradley can probably grow into a player who is less of a liability on the offensive end and his defense can prove to be valuable.  Now all we need is a few superstar players to lead us to contention and we can use Bradley as a PG-Stopper in a league loaded with quality PGs.

I still don't see it that way.

Avery Bradley, in 2012-13 (counting his terrible month, but not his amazing month), shot the ball better than the likes of Ben Gordon, Terrence Ross, Carlos Delfino, Eric Gordon, E'Twaun Moore (yes, he shot 598 attempts), Marco Belinelli, Francisco Garcia, Jodie Meeks, Alan Anderson, and Kirk Hinrich. He might be a bad offensive player but even compared to players of his position, he's definitely not the worst and he can shoot the ball better than other established players. I wouldn't put him with the weakest offensive players in the league," like Austin Rivers per se, but he can hold his own. If he kept up his averages his whole year (no April 2012 or February 2013), he'd be an okay offensive guard. And then add that to his defense, and he can stay as a shooting-guard.

Just my point of view... *shrug* What do I know?