Surprised by how many reports there are of Pierce leaving this summer.
I still believe it's a long shot that is anywhere other than Boston. It is just so hard for this team to rebuild properly (in the immediate sense) with all of the contracts currently on the books. It's looking very hard to find any added-value for the team in dumping Pierce.
I think there are two explanations:
1. The team is committing to Jeff Green as the starting SF for the immediate future and keeping Pierce will just force one of them to play out of position for extended minutes. Further, Pierce's expiring contract and ability make him the best option for bringing in a starter-level player at another position of need or a pick/prospect that could develop into such a player.
2. There's a possibility that ownership has asked Ainge to get under the tax this year. That they don't want to pay the new punitive rates. And Pierce is just the easiest guy to move/waive to get us under that threshold.
While I think your explanations of why this topic is hot are correct (in that those are the reasonings people keep stating), I can't help but offer the responses:
1) In reality, as of the 2nd half of the season, Green and Pierce were far more complementary than competitive. Indeed, the team performance was dramatically better with _both_ on the floor than not. The Net ratings (points per 100 possessions) of various twosomes (the ones that logged a lot of minutes) went something like this:
KG & PP +8.7
JG & PP +8.4
JG & KG +7.6
and then ... every other two-some combo at below +5.
Of note - no twosomes of 'PP+anybody' or 'JG+anybody' came close to those numbers.
Basically, we had a LOT more success when we used the BOTH of them as complementary, balancing parts of the offense (along with KG, of course). So I'm not convinced that retaining Pierce really 'impedes' Green's development.
Unless we replace Pierce with another, legit scoring weapon to balance Green, I don't think that necessarily 'helps' Green to get rid of Pierce.
2) If luxury tax savings is the goal, then the only real option is the 5M buyout, since that would shave some 10M off the actual money spent. None of the other discussed options reduces the actual money spent . Considering that move doesn't free up actual soft cap space, I have a hard time believing we'd let Pierce walk as a free agent to go play anywhere for dirt cheap, with no compensation back, simply to save a few bucks. If Pierce is gone, I feel a trade is the far more likely reason.