Author Topic: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!  (Read 12072 times)

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Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #30 on: April 18, 2013, 01:41:22 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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This time, we don't have Rondo which is a significant loss for us come postseason time.

So the ESPN experts MIGHT win on this  :(


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Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #31 on: April 18, 2013, 01:54:06 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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How often do the 7 seeds actually get picked to win? 

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #32 on: April 18, 2013, 01:55:22 PM »

Offline Who

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I don't mind any choosing either side so long as is in 6 or 7 games. It looks a close series. I think the C's have an edge but it'll be a tough contest.

Picking the Knicks in 5 games though .... that is a puzzler.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #33 on: April 18, 2013, 01:57:38 PM »

Offline Who

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It's not a typical 7th seed vs 2nd seed in my book.

There is one great team (Miami) in the Eastern Conference and then are six teams who are all on pretty much the same level (NYC, Indiana, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta). Very little between them. And then there is the eight seed who are much weaker and are only there to make up the numbers.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #34 on: April 18, 2013, 02:13:39 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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It's not a typical 7th seed vs 2nd seed in my book.

I think its a fairly typical 2-7 encounter.

One team has a top 5 player in the league, a very recent DPOY playing well, a current favorite for SMOY, good veteran leadership, youth and athleticism off the bench, a very solid PG, and is a 54 win team and been playing their best ball going down the stretch.

The other team is an aging former champion with its two of its young starters and better rotation players hurt, their defensive anchor and oldest player playing on a beat up leg, and is a team that has played inconsistently all year and poorly down the stretch and only won 41 games.

Seems to me like a very common 2-7 scenario to me.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #35 on: April 18, 2013, 02:25:49 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Stein mentions in his power rankings this week that the #7 seed has actually won only 2 out of the last 44 series. That is a less than 5% win rate.

I did a little poking around and found one article claiming that no #7 seed in the East has gone beyond game 5 of round 2.

In that light I think the Celtics are actually getting a fair amount of credit, with 8 out of 10 experts predicting a 6 or 7 game series.


Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #36 on: April 18, 2013, 02:35:21 PM »

Offline Who

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It's not a typical 7th seed vs 2nd seed in my book.

I think its a fairly typical 2-7 encounter.

One team has a top 5 player in the league, a very recent DPOY playing well, a current favorite for SMOY, good veteran leadership, youth and athleticism off the bench, a very solid PG, and is a 54 win team and been playing their best ball going down the stretch.

The other team is an aging former champion with its two of its young starters and better rotation players hurt, their defensive anchor and oldest player playing on a beat up leg, and is a team that has played inconsistently all year and poorly down the stretch and only won 41 games.

Seems to me like a very common 2-7 scenario to me.

I agree with what you say about Boston but I think you can say similar criticisms about New York.

Melo is excellent but their 2nd best offensive player is JR Smith (streaky). Their third best is Raymond Felton (choke artist). Nobody else can create their own offense on that team. That is very weak supporting offensive threats. They have a league average defense. Tyson Chandler has been injured for most of the past 15-20 games. Amare Stoudemire is out injured. Their backup centers (Sheed, K.Thomas waived, Camby) are all out injured or waived.

The Knicks are not some juggernaut.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #37 on: April 18, 2013, 02:35:56 PM »

Offline ManUp

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Well using unbiased logic it's hard to disagree.

I think they gave us a fair enough respect just by saying it will go to 6 or 7.


Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #38 on: April 18, 2013, 03:15:53 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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if anything, they've overestimated the C's by saying they'll get to a game 6.

I think they can get to a game 6 based on KG and PP giving it their all and assuming it's there to give.  guts and determination are great but they'll only get you so far when the talent falls short --  as it does as a team against the Knicks as a team.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #39 on: April 18, 2013, 03:17:39 PM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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Let's be honest. The Celts need the breaks to go their way in order to get a leg up in this series, and to make a legit run at winning it. You simply never know, but the Knicks deserve credit for becoming a much better team than they were . . .. and a much better reg season team than the Celts this year. We were .500.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #40 on: April 18, 2013, 03:26:23 PM »

Offline PaulPierce34G

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Considering the way the team played all season, ie, winning 5 in a row, losing 5 in a row, winning 2 in a row, losing 4 in a row...I can't blame the analysts for these predictions.  Anything's possible as KG said back in '08, so they can't be totally counted out, but the Knicks are a decent team this season, and even if Boston does manage to get into the 2nd round or even all the way to the ECF, I think that's as far as the train can possibly go.  I said in a former post that LeBron could single-handedly destroy this team and I stick by that.  The guy is in the best years of his career, got the ring-monkey off his back, he owns the game right now.  He can get to the rim anytime he wants and regardless of whoever is waiting there for him, 8 or 9 times out of 10, he will throw it down. 

I hope the C's pull some magic as they have in years past, but I think a lot of fans this season really feel like this team just isn't the same as squads in years past in terms of being able to 'gut it out' night in and night out.  There was just a lot, lot of inconsistency this year. 

Again, not getting off topic, I think the analysts aren't disrespecting the Celtics at all.  They're just going with the team that played a more consistent, better season.  Can't blame them.  Anything can happen.  All we can do is sit back, relax (try to), and enjoy the ride. 

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #41 on: April 18, 2013, 03:28:31 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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It's not a typical 7th seed vs 2nd seed in my book.

There is one great team (Miami) in the Eastern Conference and then are six teams who are all on pretty much the same level (NYC, Indiana, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta). Very little between them. And then there is the eight seed who are much weaker and are only there to make up the numbers.

I have a feeling that fans of NY and Indy would take issue with that statement.

Indy's record is a little deceptive. Their point differential is much more consistent with that of a 50-55 win team. And they are the top defensive team in the league by many metrics.

Also, just for fun I went back and checked how often the #2 seed has had 54 wins or less in the Eastern Conference. In the twelve years 2001-2013 it's happened seven times - more than half the time.

Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #42 on: April 18, 2013, 03:29:15 PM »

Offline action781

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Really, what have the Celtics done to deserve anything better.

Yeah basically this. Why would anyone, based on this season, think otherwise.

+1

Based on this season, you would be correct.  I don't think you need to base a team's playoff hopes solely on how they competed that regular season.  I can point to numerous evidence to show this, but I'm sure we all fully aware of plenty of examples.  The last 5 postseasons have been filled with the celtics winning series in the playoffs that nobody thought they would win.  That's why I think otherwise.  How many playoff series have the celtics won that they were "expected" to lose? 

Not that it's relevant, but they also have not yet lost a single postseason series that they were expected to win... each of the 4 lost series have come in series that the celtics had the odds stacked heavily against them.
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Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #43 on: April 18, 2013, 03:35:19 PM »

Offline action781

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Can't blame them, the C's haven't played well for a while and KG's hurt. I'm hopeful they're wrong, but it is a 2 v 7 matchup.

Yeah.  Especially for those predicting a seven game series, I actually think they're giving our team props.  I think only "true believers" are going to pick our team, minus Rondo, to beat the Knicks, and I can't really blame them.

I do predict they'll be wrong, though.

I predict that you'll be wrong.  About your prediction that the predictors will be predicting wrong.

I am surprised that nobody at ESPN would predict Boston though.  In an industry of sports entertainment where everybody wants to go out on a limb, nobody would go out on that limb to take the veteran Boston Celtics, who have continually surprised people in managing upsets in a playoff matchups in recent years, over a NY Knicks team that hasn't won a playoff series since 2000.  Doesn't seem like such a stretch that 0/10 of these attention seekers would make such a claim.
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Re: ESPN "experts" underestimating the C's...again!
« Reply #44 on: April 18, 2013, 03:37:34 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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I think Legler is one of the best in the business. He's usually spot on when it comes to the C's. I tend to side with his prediction of picking the Knicks in 7.