Author Topic: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect  (Read 10550 times)

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Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #45 on: March 24, 2013, 05:05:12 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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ESPN did an analysis of NCAA performance vs regular-season performance, and players who played better in the tournament not only got drafted higher, but also had longer careers than players who didn't. I think it was in their recent analytics issue. Can't find the article online.

Low sample size though, but it looks like it flies right in the wind of what Danny's saying.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is true, but not necessarily for the right reasons.

Interestingly, I believe I read an article about how players who saw their "projected draft spot" get better due to a good tourney tend to be more likely to underperform for their relative draft spot. On the flipside, players who saw their "projected draft spot" get worse due to a bad tournament game tend to out perform their draft slot. The implication of this article was that if you were projected to be a 15-20 pick based on 30 games, then had a great tourney and were picked 6th, you tended to play in the NBA like a 15-20 pick. And vice versa.

Now both of these could be true. It could be true that a good tourney does get you a better draft slot (but it could be undeserved). I also think it's absolutely true that getting drafted higher would lead to a longer career, even if you aren't good. Think about how many bad players are undrafted FAs, play 1 year, then are out. But if you're a first rounder and suck, you usually get at least 4 years because it's almost automatic to pick up those team options. Then, because of "pedigree," other teams keep taking chances. Kandi, Marcus Banks, Gerald Green, Thabeet, Darko, etc, all probably got more chances simply due to rep than comparable undrafted talent.



Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #46 on: March 24, 2013, 05:15:18 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Yeah, like Brook Lopez has the footspeed and the jumping and he's an All Star right now. What's your point?

Oly makes Lopez look like Carl Lewis.  Lopez can get get above the rim too more than Oly.  My point is he sucks athletically and should have dominated against Wichita State but did not.

I think he will be out of the league in five years or DL bound.


Quote
NBA Comparison: Spencer Hawes/Fabricio Oberto

Strengths: Legit 7 footer with a polished, highly effective post skill set ... Prolific scorer on the college level averaging 18 ppg on 66 fg% in 25 mpg ... Very comfortable operating on the block, using textbook positioning ... Shows an excellent understanding of the game and has become one of the most dominant bigs on the college level ... Has the ability to score on the block with up and unders, pump fakes, drop steps as well as knock down mid range and even outside shots ... Solid in the open floor but more effective in the half court ... Has decent agility, just lacks much explosiveness. He's not a stand out athlete, but he does have considerable touch and coordination for a 7-footer ... Can play out on the perimeter effectively, showing the ability to pass the ball and even handle the ball to get to the basket ... Does a good job of using his body to shield defenders from the ball when going to the basket ... Solid strength and rebounding ability ... Unusually polished post skills for a college player. Gets a low base providing a big target. Seals off his man and holds his position after passes to set up easy buckets. Has advanced footwork and utilizes a variety of effective fakes, spin moves and counter moves to draw contact and get opponents off balance ... Not pretty but effective ... Finishes very well around the basket, even after contact ... Quick, reliable hands and good reflexes allow him to catch passes and go up for shots quickly ... Excellent shooter. Very comfortable knocking down mid range shots. 82% FT shooter is very good for a big ... While not an efficient 3 point shooter at this point (33% on low volume) he appears to be a guy that could incorporate that into his game ... Gets the most of his abilities on the defensive end, staying between man and basket and not biting on pump fakes or gambling for steals ... Motivated, plays with consistent effort and energy ... His improvement over his college career is a testament to his work ethic and coachability ...

Weaknesses: Not the most athletic guy. Below the rim type of "finesse" player ... Foot speed and overall athleticism are below average for the NBA ... While he gives solid energy and effort, his lack of foot speed and athleticism decreases his defensive abilities ... Naturally thick legs slow his quickness and explosiveness some ... Not a shot blocker, lacks the leaping ability to be an intimidating defensive force ... Runs into trouble against elite level bigman athletes that don't fall for his fakes as he is unable to bull his way to the basket and can struggle to get his shot off. Gets his shots blocked a fair amount, and that will likely increase against bigger and better athletes at the next level ... Already the age of a senior so while his experience and NBA readiness might be looked at as a positive, his age, 1991 born, will also be viewed as a negative by scouts in terms of upside ...

Notes: Redshirted the 2011-12 season with Robert Sacre the featured center at Gonzaga and used the time off well to turn himself into a dominant player ... Has proven to be a prolific scorer in his red shirt junior season ...

http://nbadraft.net/players/kelly-olynyk

Note he was behind Robert Sacre and on the bench because of him.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #47 on: March 24, 2013, 05:31:12 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Yeah, like Brook Lopez has the footspeed and the jumping and he's an All Star right now. What's your point?

Oly makes Lopez look like Carl Lewis.  Lopez can get get above the rim too more than Oly.  My point is he sucks athletically and should have dominated against Wichita State but did not.

I think he will be out of the league in five years or DL bound.


Quote
NBA Comparison: Spencer Hawes/Fabricio Oberto

Strengths: Legit 7 footer with a polished, highly effective post skill set ... Prolific scorer on the college level averaging 18 ppg on 66 fg% in 25 mpg ... Very comfortable operating on the block, using textbook positioning ... Shows an excellent understanding of the game and has become one of the most dominant bigs on the college level ... Has the ability to score on the block with up and unders, pump fakes, drop steps as well as knock down mid range and even outside shots ... Solid in the open floor but more effective in the half court ... Has decent agility, just lacks much explosiveness. He's not a stand out athlete, but he does have considerable touch and coordination for a 7-footer ... Can play out on the perimeter effectively, showing the ability to pass the ball and even handle the ball to get to the basket ... Does a good job of using his body to shield defenders from the ball when going to the basket ... Solid strength and rebounding ability ... Unusually polished post skills for a college player. Gets a low base providing a big target. Seals off his man and holds his position after passes to set up easy buckets. Has advanced footwork and utilizes a variety of effective fakes, spin moves and counter moves to draw contact and get opponents off balance ... Not pretty but effective ... Finishes very well around the basket, even after contact ... Quick, reliable hands and good reflexes allow him to catch passes and go up for shots quickly ... Excellent shooter. Very comfortable knocking down mid range shots. 82% FT shooter is very good for a big ... While not an efficient 3 point shooter at this point (33% on low volume) he appears to be a guy that could incorporate that into his game ... Gets the most of his abilities on the defensive end, staying between man and basket and not biting on pump fakes or gambling for steals ... Motivated, plays with consistent effort and energy ... His improvement over his college career is a testament to his work ethic and coachability ...

Weaknesses: Not the most athletic guy. Below the rim type of "finesse" player ... Foot speed and overall athleticism are below average for the NBA ... While he gives solid energy and effort, his lack of foot speed and athleticism decreases his defensive abilities ... Naturally thick legs slow his quickness and explosiveness some ... Not a shot blocker, lacks the leaping ability to be an intimidating defensive force ... Runs into trouble against elite level bigman athletes that don't fall for his fakes as he is unable to bull his way to the basket and can struggle to get his shot off. Gets his shots blocked a fair amount, and that will likely increase against bigger and better athletes at the next level ... Already the age of a senior so while his experience and NBA readiness might be looked at as a positive, his age, 1991 born, will also be viewed as a negative by scouts in terms of upside ...

Notes: Redshirted the 2011-12 season with Robert Sacre the featured center at Gonzaga and used the time off well to turn himself into a dominant player ... Has proven to be a prolific scorer in his red shirt junior season ...

http://nbadraft.net/players/kelly-olynyk

Note he was behind Robert Sacre and on the bench because of him.

I've seen enough slam jams from Olynyk to know that he can get up. He's too skilled to be D-League, and he did dominate Wichita State, 26 and 9 and got to the line 14 times. He did shoot bad and that's something he needs to work at. But he is way too polished to be out of the league like your saying.

I understand that he's not athletically gifted, but to tell that he's not NBA material is stretching it. He can be a low post threat. He redshirted and came back a POTY candidate. He's better than Sacre would ever be.
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Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #48 on: March 24, 2013, 06:20:11 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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McLemore is looking shaky so far in the tourney.  Probably distracted by the success of his single.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #49 on: March 24, 2013, 06:31:58 PM »

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If they lose today and the way its going, no way mclamore goes #1. He has trouble creating shots for himself. 

Its going to be interesting who gets picked #1

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #50 on: March 24, 2013, 06:40:25 PM »

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If they lose today and the way its going, no way mclamore goes #1. He has trouble creating shots for himself. 

Its going to be interesting who gets picked #1
I wonder if Noel will go #1 anyway despite the injury.

Nobody really seems to be stepping up to take it away from him.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #51 on: March 24, 2013, 06:45:31 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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nice comeback. But mclamore keeps looking shaky. Just can't finish. Withey on the other hand looking like a top 10 pick.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #52 on: March 24, 2013, 06:54:47 PM »

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I'd hate to have a top five pick in this draft.  Fans expect star-level talent from that high of a pick, but with the possible exception of Noel (who has an ACL injury) I don't see anybody who I'd put on that level.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #53 on: March 24, 2013, 07:15:43 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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If Kansas can pull off this comeback, it will be interesting to see how Withey fares against michigan. Especially against a legit stronger center in Mitch Mcgary.

If he pulls off a decent performance, i want Withey for our pick. He is projected to go late 20's. It doesn't matter to me

Sully and Withey would be an interesting strength and length combo on the inside. Finally we can rest easy with our inside troubles
« Last Edit: March 24, 2013, 07:26:29 PM by triboy16f »

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #54 on: March 24, 2013, 07:25:22 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I'd hate to have a top five pick in this draft.  Fans expect star-level talent from that high of a pick, but with the possible exception of Noel (who has an ACL injury) I don't see anybody who I'd put on that level.

I have never seen this in my life where a player no matter who it is , gets drafted #1 while he is recoving from a pretty serious injury.

I wouldn't do it if i were the bobcats. Maybe i might risk it , if i were Orlando. If i got lucky in the lotto, already ok up front and can wait a few years, i would then consider Noel.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #55 on: March 24, 2013, 07:47:52 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I'd hate to have a top five pick in this draft.  Fans expect star-level talent from that high of a pick, but with the possible exception of Noel (who has an ACL injury) I don't see anybody who I'd put on that level.

I have never seen this in my life where a player no matter who it is , gets drafted #1 while he is recoving from a pretty serious injury.

Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tourney and was drafted #1. 

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #56 on: March 24, 2013, 07:56:21 PM »

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I'd hate to have a top five pick in this draft.  Fans expect star-level talent from that high of a pick, but with the possible exception of Noel (who has an ACL injury) I don't see anybody who I'd put on that level.

I have never seen this in my life where a player no matter who it is , gets drafted #1 while he is recoving from a pretty serious injury.

Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tourney and was drafted #1.

True.  Also, one of the worst draft classes of alltime. 

This draft doesn't look like it has any franchise changers. Lots of question marks.  On paper, one of the weaker ones I've seen although you could end up with a healthy dose of rotation guys, 


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Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #57 on: March 24, 2013, 07:59:43 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I'd hate to have a top five pick in this draft.  Fans expect star-level talent from that high of a pick, but with the possible exception of Noel (who has an ACL injury) I don't see anybody who I'd put on that level.

I have never seen this in my life where a player no matter who it is , gets drafted #1 while he is recoving from a pretty serious injury.

Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tourney and was drafted #1.

Fair enough. But he did suffer another broken leg after he was drafted and had a series of other injuries for his career. 

I find players who get injured while they are young, usually end up being injured , easier later in their careers vs a player who has a bulletproof health history.  Not sure if its good genetics/body or just the way they play that gets them in trouble.

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #58 on: March 24, 2013, 08:02:52 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I'd hate to have a top five pick in this draft.  Fans expect star-level talent from that high of a pick, but with the possible exception of Noel (who has an ACL injury) I don't see anybody who I'd put on that level.

I have never seen this in my life where a player no matter who it is , gets drafted #1 while he is recoving from a pretty serious injury.

Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tourney and was drafted #1.

True.  Also, one of the worst draft classes of alltime. 

This draft doesn't look like it has any franchise changers. Lots of question marks.  On paper, one of the weaker ones I've seen although you could end up with a healthy dose of rotation guys,

i agree. The martin year draft was prob one of the worse in history. Jamal Crawford and Redd were the only other decent players out of that draft. We were blessed to draft Moiso =[
« Last Edit: March 24, 2013, 08:12:20 PM by triboy16f »

Re: March Madness: Good and bad performances. Draft stock effect
« Reply #59 on: March 24, 2013, 09:49:01 PM »

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Has Sherwood Brown really not yet been mentioned in this thread?!?!  #binky

Seriously, this guy playing his way into the 2nd round or no?  I think he has a place at the end of an NBA roster.  Possible Marquis Daniels like player?  (hair aside)
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