I'm a big Josh Smith guy but I would rather have Jeff Green. Green makes less bone headed plays, takes less bad shots and is going to make a lot less money.
I'd rather have the impact shot blocking, rebounding, and other non-scoring contributions.
But giving him the max, blah.
Yeah, on paper, Smith looks like an obvious 'yes'.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=smithjo03&y1=2013&p2=greenje02&y2=2013
Per-minute, identical scoring, identical FG%, identical FTA's with JG having an edge in 3pt% and FT%, and Josh Smith being better literally everywhere else.
There's a pretty big difference (12% or so) in TS%, and the turnovers favor Jeff as well. Smith might get the edge, but it's pretty slight.
I disagree, its actually a 6% difference in TS%, and turnovers only favor Green by 2% on turnover ratio (which is very slight when you figure in that Smith also has a higher Usage rate, assist ratio, and 3 more FGA's per 36 minutes).
But Smith has advantages in all the other categories, despite a worse supporting cast, despite teams more aggressively game-planning for him (and despite them being much more familiar with him as a centerpiece of the offense so having literally years to prepare for him).
Plus, Smith has a much bigger impact than Green on defense. Just a better player, and Smith is only 3/4 a year older than Green.
Smallish sample size, but if Green keeps playing at his post all-star level next season which player would you say is more likely to be a 2014 all-star? I'd actually go with Green.
This is a tossup for me. All-star voters like sexy stories and points. If the C's are in playoff contention again, and Green is averaging between 18 and 20 ppg with the same FG/3pt numbers, while Smith is still on the Hawks, and they're still middle of the pack, I could see Green getting the nod.
When I said the TS% difference was 12% I meant that Green's number was 12% higher than Smith's, meaning if they both took the same number of shots Green would end up with 12% more points. That 6% difference is pretty significant btw. It's the difference in scoring efficiency between Rondo and Chris Paul for their careers.
lol. So you took JG's 56%, subtracted Smith's 50%, and divided that remaining 6% by 50% to get 12%?
You couldn't just say, "Green's TS% is higher by 6%"?
I didn't say it wasn't significant, JG shooting 40% from 3 is huge. Its game-changer for him huge. But his eFG% is also less than 2% higher, the operative difference being that Josh Smith's FT shooting this season is well below his career average. That's why Green's TS% is 6% higher, when the FG% are identical, even with Green's higher 3pt %.
And let's not talk about Rondo and Chris Paul.
Also, the usage% doesn't mitigate the TO%, it exacerbates it. Smith is both using more possessions than Green and turning it over more often per possession used.
Turnover ratio is not one of those numbers that a 2% difference means anything significant though. Those numbers do exist, but its not turnover ratio.
And in this instance, if Jeff Green had the same usage rate as Josh Smith, their turnovers per 36 minutes would be so close its negligible.
EDIT: I should say I'm oversimplifying 'Usage' here. Usage (Tim knows this already, but for those who don't) doesn't actually measure the % of time a player has the ball in their hands, it measures how often a player commits a possession-ending event, which is either a field goal attempt, turnover, or assist. The implication is that the more often a player commits these events, the more often they have the ball in their hands during decision-making moments, so a higher-usage is roughly equivalent with more time spent with the ball in their hands. Also, I'm not sure what your "all star" comment was supposed to mean. You talk about all-star voters liking points, but the 18-20 a game you have Green scoring would be pretty close to what you might expect from Smith. Also you talk about the Celts being in playoff contention again while the Hawks are "middle of the pack" again. But the Hawks are generally a 4-5 seed in the playoffs. ??
Right. I'm saying, Josh Smith has been doing this for years, 2nd team all-defense effort on his resume, career year last year, etc..he's never gotten the nod, so unless he goes to a new team and changes the perception of him, I could see how Josh Smith could continue to put in very good production and continue to miss out on all-star games.