Author Topic: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?  (Read 11987 times)

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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #210 on: February 19, 2013, 12:42:23 PM »

Offline action781

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Saying that Rondo's outside shooting doesn't stop him from being a good player = praising him like a deity, criticisms that don't mesh with any available stats are well constructed and based on reason and facts.
This conversation has long moved past Rondo's shooting (which has improved) and is now about his newly found love for dribbling the ball at the top of the key. And yes, there are stats for this, it seems.

I'm hard at work on a sabremetric to measure Rondo's "fiddlin' and diddlin'" as Johnny Most would put it.

I think I'll call it the BS Quotent.

For ball-stopping, of course.
You call and I oblige:

Quote
It’s no secret Boston’s offense had grown very Rondo-dominant, especially this season. The Celtics are one of 15 teams that have invested in fancy data-tracking cameras from STATS LLC, and the information from those cameras, provided exclusively to Grantland, backs up that notion. Rondo has dribbled the ball about 486 times per tracked game this season, the fourth-highest figure in the league for players on those 15 camera teams, and about 90 more dribbles per game than he averaged last season, according to the data. A larger percentage of his touches — 41 percent this season, 35.5 percent last season — have involved at least six dribbles.

This has naturally resulted in fewer touches, and shorter touches, for some of Boston’s secondary ball-handlers. Terry dribbles the ball twice on average every time he gets it, down from a three-dribble average last season, and a much higher percentage of his touches have lasted between zero and two seconds in Boston, the data show. Pierce’s stats have shifted in a similar way, and Terry is still on pace for a career-low usage rate — a measure of the percentage of Boston possessions that end with a Terry shot, drawn foul or turnover.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/50099/are-the-celtics-really-this-good-without-rajon-rondo

  I don't know that those numbers are as bad as people wish they were. If Rondo's 4th out of 15 teams in dribbles/game, he's probably 7th-8th in the nba. You'd think from this thread that he was the league leader by a significant margin. I don't see why a point guard who's a) on a team that plays at a slowish pace and b) leads the league in assists by a pretty good margin wouldn't be expected to be among the top 10 players in the league in dribbles per game.

  You'd expect players like Kobe, LeBron and Melo to be in the top 5 for dribbles per game. I wonder if you two could easily name the rest of the top 10 in the league, off the top of your heads and without consulting any stats. It must be awfully simple, seeing as it's apparently one of the most noticeable things that happen in a game. I'd also wonder whether you would have the same criticism of their games as you do for Rondo. Or whether this is just another overly large molehill.

The problem is that this had become the celtics style and identity of offense.  And this offense was 26th in efficiency and we were a sub-.500 team while rostering a lot of very talented offensive players.  Had this kind of offense been in the top 10 efficiency-wise in the NBA, then I'd say KEEP DOING IT.  But it wasn't.

No, I'm not critical of Lebron or Melo for doing it because whatever they are doing is working for them.  If Durant and CP3 are in that group, then no, I won't criticize them for doing it because it is working.

If I were a Lakers fan, then yes I absolutely would be critical of Kobe for it if he is in that same group.
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #211 on: February 19, 2013, 12:45:55 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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But this is about Rondo, and the trends in Rondo's game. And is funny how the tune changes from "there's no evidence that this is true" to "this is not really an issue" when the evidence turns up. Boo-ya.
My point of view has always been about whether this is the issue for the team that people claim that it is. I've been talking about the team's pace with and without Rondo, how many late in the shot clock shots we take compared to other teams and how we're still getting a lot of jumpers late in the shot clock despite our ball movement, and that we're normally a good offense when Rondo controls the ball. And I was discussing all of those topics well before someone stumbled upon that "proof". So, double boo-ya right back atcha.
So it seems we agree that the issue is real, at least. That's a good starting point.

But the fact remains that Rondo has controlled the ball more this season, and the offence has been worse, so I'm not sure how you reconcile this with the statement that we're "typically a good offense when Rondo controls the ball".

Also, I've never said that getting jumpers late in the clock is the issue -- the issue here is that having no-one touch the ball but the PG for most of the possession is not a good way to run offense. Pin it on whoever you want.

 
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #212 on: February 19, 2013, 01:42:00 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Saying that Rondo's outside shooting doesn't stop him from being a good player = praising him like a deity, criticisms that don't mesh with any available stats are well constructed and based on reason and facts.
This conversation has long moved past Rondo's shooting (which has improved) and is now about his newly found love for dribbling the ball at the top of the key. And yes, there are stats for this, it seems.

I'm hard at work on a sabremetric to measure Rondo's "fiddlin' and diddlin'" as Johnny Most would put it.

I think I'll call it the BS Quotent.

For ball-stopping, of course.
You call and I oblige:

Quote
It’s no secret Boston’s offense had grown very Rondo-dominant, especially this season. The Celtics are one of 15 teams that have invested in fancy data-tracking cameras from STATS LLC, and the information from those cameras, provided exclusively to Grantland, backs up that notion. Rondo has dribbled the ball about 486 times per tracked game this season, the fourth-highest figure in the league for players on those 15 camera teams, and about 90 more dribbles per game than he averaged last season, according to the data. A larger percentage of his touches — 41 percent this season, 35.5 percent last season — have involved at least six dribbles.

This has naturally resulted in fewer touches, and shorter touches, for some of Boston’s secondary ball-handlers. Terry dribbles the ball twice on average every time he gets it, down from a three-dribble average last season, and a much higher percentage of his touches have lasted between zero and two seconds in Boston, the data show. Pierce’s stats have shifted in a similar way, and Terry is still on pace for a career-low usage rate — a measure of the percentage of Boston possessions that end with a Terry shot, drawn foul or turnover.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/50099/are-the-celtics-really-this-good-without-rajon-rondo

  I don't know that those numbers are as bad as people wish they were. If Rondo's 4th out of 15 teams in dribbles/game, he's probably 7th-8th in the nba. You'd think from this thread that he was the league leader by a significant margin. I don't see why a point guard who's a) on a team that plays at a slowish pace and b) leads the league in assists by a pretty good margin wouldn't be expected to be among the top 10 players in the league in dribbles per game.

  You'd expect players like Kobe, LeBron and Melo to be in the top 5 for dribbles per game. I wonder if you two could easily name the rest of the top 10 in the league, off the top of your heads and without consulting any stats. It must be awfully simple, seeing as it's apparently one of the most noticeable things that happen in a game. I'd also wonder whether you would have the same criticism of their games as you do for Rondo. Or whether this is just another overly large molehill.

The problem is that this had become the celtics style and identity of offense.  And this offense was 26th in efficiency and we were a sub-.500 team while rostering a lot of very talented offensive players.  Had this kind of offense been in the top 10 efficiency-wise in the NBA, then I'd say KEEP DOING IT.  But it wasn't.

No, I'm not critical of Lebron or Melo for doing it because whatever they are doing is working for them.  If Durant and CP3 are in that group, then no, I won't criticize them for doing it because it is working.

If I were a Lakers fan, then yes I absolutely would be critical of Kobe for it if he is in that same group.

  The main reason we're 26th in efficiency is offensive rebounding, the next reason's not having the three point shooters we used to, I don't see why you'd try and blame Rondo for that.

Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #213 on: February 19, 2013, 01:54:54 PM »

Offline BballTim

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But this is about Rondo, and the trends in Rondo's game. And is funny how the tune changes from "there's no evidence that this is true" to "this is not really an issue" when the evidence turns up. Boo-ya.
My point of view has always been about whether this is the issue for the team that people claim that it is. I've been talking about the team's pace with and without Rondo, how many late in the shot clock shots we take compared to other teams and how we're still getting a lot of jumpers late in the shot clock despite our ball movement, and that we're normally a good offense when Rondo controls the ball. And I was discussing all of those topics well before someone stumbled upon that "proof". So, double boo-ya right back atcha.
So it seems we agree that the issue is real, at least. That's a good starting point.

  I don't think anyone's ever disputed that Rondo controls the ball a lot. Whether that's a problem for the team is another thing.

But the fact remains that Rondo has controlled the ball more this season, and the offence has been worse, so I'm not sure how you reconcile this with the statement that we're "typically a good offense when Rondo controls the ball".

  The way I reconcile the statement is that I recall games that Rondo played in before early-mid December of this year. Rondo didn't just start playing for the Celts this year and he didn't just start controlling the ball on offense. I also realize that the fact that 2 of our top 3 scorers have been playing through injuries, and the offense went downhill over the time since Rondo got the bone bruise on his hip, and that he was frequently wearing an ice pack on his back when he wasn't in the game. The offense was better than average earlier this year, and there are clearly reasons that it was poor over a stretch of games other than just Rondo dribbling the ball.

Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #214 on: February 19, 2013, 02:04:50 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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But the fact remains that Rondo has controlled the ball more this season, and the offence has been worse, so I'm not sure how you reconcile this with the statement that we're "typically a good offense when Rondo controls the ball".

  The way I reconcile the statement is that I recall games that Rondo played in before early-mid December of this year. Rondo didn't just start playing for the Celts this year and he didn't just start controlling the ball on offense. I also realize that the fact that 2 of our top 3 scorers have been playing through injuries, and the offense went downhill over the time since Rondo got the bone bruise on his hip, and that he was frequently wearing an ice pack on his back when he wasn't in the game. The offense was better than average earlier this year, and there are clearly reasons that it was poor over a stretch of games other than just Rondo dribbling the ball.
And no-one has been nicked and bruised on the Celtics prior to this season? And everyone magically got healthy when Rondo got injured?

There are sure multiple factors at work here, but Rondo dribbling the ball too much is quite clearly one of them.
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #215 on: February 19, 2013, 02:20:26 PM »

Offline jay

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What if they did all 3 trades and ended up with a core 7 of:

Bledsoe
Bradley
Lee
Green
Smith
Howard
Jordan


What better group to have to match up with Miami?  Huge inside, 6'9" forwards that can jump out of the gym and arent as skinny as rail, and guards that can defend on the perimeter.  Would be lacking that one sg/sf that could get you 17+ pts and hit the big shot in crunch time.  Assuming Bass would go out with Rondo and that Sullinger would be in the Smith deal. 


Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #216 on: February 19, 2013, 02:26:05 PM »

Offline action781

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  I don't know that those numbers are as bad as people wish they were. If Rondo's 4th out of 15 teams in dribbles/game, he's probably 7th-8th in the nba. You'd think from this thread that he was the league leader by a significant margin. I don't see why a point guard who's a) on a team that plays at a slowish pace and b) leads the league in assists by a pretty good margin wouldn't be expected to be among the top 10 players in the league in dribbles per game.

  You'd expect players like Kobe, LeBron and Melo to be in the top 5 for dribbles per game. I wonder if you two could easily name the rest of the top 10 in the league, off the top of your heads and without consulting any stats. It must be awfully simple, seeing as it's apparently one of the most noticeable things that happen in a game. I'd also wonder whether you would have the same criticism of their games as you do for Rondo. Or whether this is just another overly large molehill.

The problem is that this had become the celtics style and identity of offense.  And this offense was 26th in efficiency and we were a sub-.500 team while rostering a lot of very talented offensive players.  Had this kind of offense been in the top 10 efficiency-wise in the NBA, then I'd say KEEP DOING IT.  But it wasn't.

No, I'm not critical of Lebron or Melo for doing it because whatever they are doing is working for them.  If Durant and CP3 are in that group, then no, I won't criticize them for doing it because it is working.

If I were a Lakers fan, then yes I absolutely would be critical of Kobe for it if he is in that same group.

  The main reason we're 26th in efficiency is offensive rebounding, the next reason's not having the three point shooters we used to, I don't see why you'd try and blame Rondo for that.
Lack of offensive rebounding...  On that topic.  Only one team in the league is worse at offensive rebounding than the Celtics.  The Spurs who have the 5th best offensive efficiency in the NBA.  The Miami Heat are the 4th worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and 2nd best in offensive efficiency.  I don't think that's where all the blame lies.

You're right that Rondo is not to blame for the lack of 3 point shooting.  Lee and Terry are likely to blame for becoming worse 3 point shooters than their career average once they become a celtic. 

(EDIT: OK, sorry for being facetious there.  I think you are right in that 3 point shooting may be the cause of poor efficiency.  But I also don't think Rondo (and Doc too) is without any blame in this regard as you seem to be trying to say.  When I'm free, I actually am going to look more into this correlation between 3 pt shooting and offensive efficiency.  I think there might be something very indicative in these two statistics.)
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #217 on: February 19, 2013, 02:26:32 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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What if they did all 3 trades and ended up with a core 7 of:

Bledsoe
Bradley
Lee
Green
Smith
Howard
Jordan


What better group to have to match up with Miami?  Huge inside, 6'9" forwards that can jump out of the gym and arent as skinny as rail, and guards that can defend on the perimeter.  Would be lacking that one sg/sf that could get you 17+ pts and hit the big shot in crunch time.  Assuming Bass would go out with Rondo and that Sullinger would be in the Smith deal.
I'm not quite sure whether this post is sarcastic or not ... but a "better group" would include at least one guy who can both "make things happen" (for lack of a better term) and make a free throw.
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #218 on: February 19, 2013, 02:29:33 PM »

Offline jay

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I'm not quite sure whether this post is sarcastic or not ... but a "better group" would include at least one guy who can both "make things happen" (for lack of a better term) and make a free throw.


True free throws would be terrible. 

Im talking about walking out on the floor and matching up with them athletically.  Knowing they arent going to run, jump, and push their way past you because you are too short, or too slow, or too old.

Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #219 on: February 19, 2013, 02:34:26 PM »

Offline Rtpas11

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hope this trade happens... Lakers are going nowhere this year, Howard is definitely leaving/ they'll be fools not to make this trade happen.
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #220 on: February 19, 2013, 02:36:03 PM »

Offline BballTim

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But the fact remains that Rondo has controlled the ball more this season, and the offence has been worse, so I'm not sure how you reconcile this with the statement that we're "typically a good offense when Rondo controls the ball".

  The way I reconcile the statement is that I recall games that Rondo played in before early-mid December of this year. Rondo didn't just start playing for the Celts this year and he didn't just start controlling the ball on offense. I also realize that the fact that 2 of our top 3 scorers have been playing through injuries, and the offense went downhill over the time since Rondo got the bone bruise on his hip, and that he was frequently wearing an ice pack on his back when he wasn't in the game. The offense was better than average earlier this year, and there are clearly reasons that it was poor over a stretch of games other than just Rondo dribbling the ball.
And no-one has been nicked and bruised on the Celtics prior to this season? And everyone magically got healthy when Rondo got injured?

There are sure multiple factors at work here, but Rondo dribbling the ball too much is quite clearly one of them.

  Lack of movement off the ball probably accounts for much of Rondo dribbling so much, and you haven't shown that Rondo dribbling so much has a negative effect on the offense.

  Also, you're right, this isn't the first time someone on the Celts has been nicked and bruised. In the middle of the 09-10 season KG and PP (and, I think, Rondo) were all missing games and in and out of the lineup and not up to snuff when they played and the offense (and the team play) suffered. In the 10-11 season Rondo spent much of the season struggling with injuries and the offense (and the team play) suffered. In the 11-12 season KG and PP were injured/playing poorly early in the season and Rondo was nicked up as well and, shockingly the offense (and the team play) suffered.

  Heck, you could go back to our title year when Rondo had an injury (hamstring I think) around Xmas and the offense dropped off quite a bit until he was healthy again. The team goes through poor stretches of play when key players are struggling or out of the lineup every single year, people are just acting like this is the first time they've ever seen it and don't understand that you don't need to over-react to it when it happens.

Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #221 on: February 19, 2013, 02:45:26 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  I don't know that those numbers are as bad as people wish they were. If Rondo's 4th out of 15 teams in dribbles/game, he's probably 7th-8th in the nba. You'd think from this thread that he was the league leader by a significant margin. I don't see why a point guard who's a) on a team that plays at a slowish pace and b) leads the league in assists by a pretty good margin wouldn't be expected to be among the top 10 players in the league in dribbles per game.

  You'd expect players like Kobe, LeBron and Melo to be in the top 5 for dribbles per game. I wonder if you two could easily name the rest of the top 10 in the league, off the top of your heads and without consulting any stats. It must be awfully simple, seeing as it's apparently one of the most noticeable things that happen in a game. I'd also wonder whether you would have the same criticism of their games as you do for Rondo. Or whether this is just another overly large molehill.

The problem is that this had become the celtics style and identity of offense.  And this offense was 26th in efficiency and we were a sub-.500 team while rostering a lot of very talented offensive players.  Had this kind of offense been in the top 10 efficiency-wise in the NBA, then I'd say KEEP DOING IT.  But it wasn't.

No, I'm not critical of Lebron or Melo for doing it because whatever they are doing is working for them.  If Durant and CP3 are in that group, then no, I won't criticize them for doing it because it is working.

If I were a Lakers fan, then yes I absolutely would be critical of Kobe for it if he is in that same group.

  The main reason we're 26th in efficiency is offensive rebounding, the next reason's not having the three point shooters we used to, I don't see why you'd try and blame Rondo for that.
Lack of offensive rebounding...  On that topic.  Only one team in the league is worse at offensive rebounding than the Celtics.  The Spurs who have the 5th best offensive efficiency in the NBA.  The Miami Heat are the 4th worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and 2nd best in offensive efficiency.  I don't think that's where all the blame lies.

  This is fairly silly. SA and Miami are good offenses *in spite* of not being good offensive rebounding teams. That doesn't mean it doesn't matter. Think about any factor you can come up with that would lead to a good offense (turnovers, efg%, 3 point shooting, Oreb) and you'll find a team or two in the top 10 offenses that' below average in that category. If you look at what happened to our offense between 2008 and 2012 (going from top 10 to bottom 5 or so) you'll probably see a bigger drop offensive rebounding than anything else, and the next biggest factor is probably taking both fewer 3 pointers and fewer shots at the rim.

Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #222 on: February 19, 2013, 02:52:00 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Lack of movement off the ball probably accounts for much of Rondo dribbling so much, and you haven't shown that Rondo dribbling so much has a negative effect on the offense.
I'm confused, did players just mysteriously started moving around more when Rondo went down? It's sure possible, but I find such a development baffling.

The offense has played better without Rondo -- you may refuse to take this as evidence that Rondo dribbling the ball has had a negative effect on the team, but that's not my problem.
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #223 on: February 19, 2013, 02:53:01 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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Lack of movement off the ball probably accounts for much of Rondo dribbling so much, and you haven't shown that Rondo dribbling so much has a negative effect on the offense.
I'm confused, did players just mysteriously started moving around more when Rondo went down? It's sure possible, but I find such a development baffling.

The offense has played better without Rondo -- you may refuse to take this as evidence that Rondo dribbling the ball has had a negative effect on the team, but that's not my problem.

They didn't "mysteriously start moving around," I think they were forced to, simply because there was no other way to get the ball.
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Re: Rumor: Rondo for Howard...?
« Reply #224 on: February 19, 2013, 03:10:59 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Lack of movement off the ball probably accounts for much of Rondo dribbling so much, and you haven't shown that Rondo dribbling so much has a negative effect on the offense.
I'm confused, did players just mysteriously started moving around more when Rondo went down? It's sure possible, but I find such a development baffling.

The offense has played better without Rondo -- you may refuse to take this as evidence that Rondo dribbling the ball has had a negative effect on the team, but that's not my problem.

  The offense also played better *with* Rondo, earlier in the year when he was on his assist streak. You're acting like we've always been bad this year when Rondo played and always been better when he hasn't. This simply isn't the case. If you think you can explain why we were playing better on offense when Rondo was "controlling the ball and fishing for assists" and somehow reconcile that with "Rondo dribbling the ball has had a negative effect on the team", be my guest. If not, you have no evidence to back your claim.


 

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