Author Topic: Miami Heat PGs  (Read 904 times)

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Offline Chelm

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Miami Heat PGs
« on: February 13, 2013, 10:49:00 AM »
I know that ± stats are flawed in some way (in that they depend on units, not individuals) but from last night's game:

Mario Chalmers +41 in 34 minutes.
Norris Cole -28 in 16 minutes.

It seems, from this statistically insignificant data set, that Chalmers makes some sort of difference out there.  However, I didn't see the game.  Can anyone confirm/deny any visual impact that would shed some light on this?  Thoughts?

Offline PhoSita

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2013, 11:26:20 AM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
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Offline Chelm

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2013, 11:33:06 AM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
If that was true, then why does Lebron only post a +21?

Offline Birdman

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2013, 11:35:31 AM »
I could play PG if i had LeBron, Bosh, and Wade

Offline pearljammer10

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2013, 11:37:23 AM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
If that was true, then why does Lebron only post a +21?

Only?

The above is your answer.
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Offline BballTim

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2013, 12:10:38 PM »
I know that ± stats are flawed in some way (in that they depend on units, not individuals) but from last night's game:

Mario Chalmers +41 in 34 minutes.
Norris Cole -28 in 16 minutes.

It seems, from this statistically insignificant data set, that Chalmers makes some sort of difference out there.  However, I didn't see the game.  Can anyone confirm/deny any visual impact that would shed some light on this?  Thoughts?

  Those +/- numbers are incredibly noisy. I think that's the real takeaway from those numbers.

Offline timobusa

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2013, 12:48:57 PM »
I could play PG if i had LeBron, Bosh, and Wade

Hahaha! Me too! For real.
I won't even have to shoot.

Offline Chelm

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2013, 01:09:13 PM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
If that was true, then why does Lebron only post a +21?

Only?

The above is your answer.
My point being that if we assume that all of Chalmers' minutes were with Lebron (+21 on 39 minutes) on the court, that Lebron was -20 in the 5 minutes Chalmers was on the bench, which is pretty significant.

Offline kozlodoev

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2013, 01:11:16 PM »
My point being that if we assume that all of Chalmers' minutes were with Lebron (+21 on 39 minutes) on the court, that Lebron was -20 in the 5 minutes Chalmers was on the bench, which is pretty significant.
One game is not "significant" in any form or shape.
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Offline mmmmm

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2013, 01:20:59 PM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
If that was true, then why does Lebron only post a +21?

Because Lebron plays more minutes than the rest of the starters ... and even HE is dragged down by their horrid bench ...

Food for thought:

Lebron has played 38.4 mpg this year in all 49 of Miami's games - in other words, he's played almost 80% of Miami's minutes. (a little less because I'm ignoring OT games).

Lebron's individual ORtg is a ridiculous 124 points per 100 possessions and his DRtg is 103 (using basketball-reference.com numbers).   Which means that for every 100 possessions he's been on the floor, the Heat are outscoring their opponents by a freakish +21!

For almost 80% of all their minutes.

But the Miami Heat's team ORtg is 112.3 and it's DRtg is just 105.4.   For a NetRtg of just +6.9!

Now, +6.9 is still a very good NetRtg for a team.  That definitely makes them a contender.

But boy, does that team suck in the ~20% of their minutes when Lebron is not on the floor.

If Lebron got injured - forget it.  That team would be toast.  Even with him, they aren't a lock, unless Lebron plays 48 mpg.
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Offline Moranis

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2013, 01:27:05 PM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
no one else on the bench was worse than -9.  Bosh was at +34, but no other starter was greater than +21.  The Chalmers to Norris thing is quite astonishing when you take the entire context.  It is just 1 game though.
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Offline Chelm

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2013, 01:35:26 PM »
My point being that if we assume that all of Chalmers' minutes were with Lebron (+21 on 39 minutes) on the court, that Lebron was -20 in the 5 minutes Chalmers was on the bench, which is pretty significant.
One game is not "significant" in any form or shape.
I stated this in my OP; one game is not significant.  But it's still interesting to examine individual games for what they bring.  Wilt didn't average 100 points a game, but we still talk about the one that he did.  If we didn't discuss intricacies of individual games, why have a forum at all?

Offline PhoSita

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2013, 01:37:11 PM »
Chalmers plays with their great starting lineup.

Cole plays with their horrid bench.

There's your answer.
no one else on the bench was worse than -9.  Bosh was at +34, but no other starter was greater than +21.  The Chalmers to Norris thing is quite astonishing when you take the entire context.  It is just 1 game though.

There is a pretty sizable difference in value between Chalmers and Norris.  Norris is a fringe NBA player.  Not in the rotation on most teams.  Chalmers is a solid if unremarkable point guard who's at his best when expectations of him are lowest.
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Offline BballTim

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2013, 01:46:58 PM »
My point being that if we assume that all of Chalmers' minutes were with Lebron (+21 on 39 minutes) on the court, that Lebron was -20 in the 5 minutes Chalmers was on the bench, which is pretty significant.
One game is not "significant" in any form or shape.
I stated this in my OP; one game is not significant.  But it's still interesting to examine individual games for what they bring.  Wilt didn't average 100 points a game, but we still talk about the one that he did.  If we didn't discuss intricacies of individual games, why have a forum at all?

  Chalmers didn't score 100 in this game either. He played 34 minutes and had 5 points, 2 boards, 4 assists and a steal. He isn't even the primary ball handler on offense. What would you think he could have possibly done to influence the outcome of the game to the extent his +/- numbers are showing?

Offline Chelm

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Re: Miami Heat PGs
« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2013, 01:48:30 PM »
My point being that if we assume that all of Chalmers' minutes were with Lebron (+21 on 39 minutes) on the court, that Lebron was -20 in the 5 minutes Chalmers was on the bench, which is pretty significant.
One game is not "significant" in any form or shape.
I stated this in my OP; one game is not significant.  But it's still interesting to examine individual games for what they bring.  Wilt didn't average 100 points a game, but we still talk about the one that he did.  If we didn't discuss intricacies of individual games, why have a forum at all?

  Chalmers didn't score 100 in this game either. He played 34 minutes and had 5 points, 2 boards, 4 assists and a steal. He isn't even the primary ball handler on offense. What would you think he could have possibly done to influence the outcome of the game to the extent his +/- numbers are showing?
I don't know, hence the thread.

 

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