Author Topic: When does AB become an impact player?  (Read 2829 times)

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #45 on: February 04, 2013, 02:28:23 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Sorry, that was unclear. I don't think it's the case that Bradley is a poor 3 point shooter but the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions either way.
I agree that the sample is small to draw conclusions either way. But I feel that Bradley was successful last year because he was taking better shots (that is, mostly wide open corner trees). I don't think this is the case this season.

For comparison, last year he took 1.5 threes per contest in games when he played 20+ minutes. So he is what he is -- but why is he trying to play like something he isn't, when it doesn't work?
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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #46 on: February 04, 2013, 02:33:35 PM »

Online Evantime34

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Bradley scored very well for the Celtics, to end the season. I expect him to get back to that.
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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #47 on: February 04, 2013, 06:40:41 PM »

Online mmmmm

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The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

  I don't think that's the case. He's got too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions, the first few games he was back and the game or two after his rib injury probably constitute 1/4 to 1/3 of his total attempts.
So what _is_ the case then?

Well, if you look at the aggregate of all his shooting at various levels (high school, college, D-League, AND the NBA) then he projects out to be a pretty decent shooter - somewhere between 35-40% from 3PT land, for example.

This season is, as BBallTim indicates, still a small sample size and it is not at all unreasonable to believe that the early couple of weeks of shooting, just back from a long absence from the game, are not necessarily representative of how he'll shoot over the long run - but they have a pretty strong statistical weight on the current season.  Thus his overall 3PT% for the season is a miserable 31.2% so far.

As others have noted, though, over the last 10 games, Bradley has shot 37.9% from 3PT land.  That seems more likely to be where he settles in for the long haul (given his larger body of work at the NBA and other levels).  At that rate, yes, yes I do want him taking at least 3 3PT shots per game.  In fact, I'd prefer him to be taking 4 or 5 such shots.
So the solution to the small sample issue is to take... an even smaller sample?

For that matter, the respectable three point shooting percentage is largely due to one game, in which he shot 4 for 7. Incidentally, that was eleven games ago (he missed one in the process). Take this one out, and he's back to shooting a pedestrian .318 from three.

Or in other words, he's shot close to 32% from three over the team's last 10 games. So if you're trying to argue trend there, there isn't much of a trend.

Not only would I like him to take less threes than he does right now, but I'd like him to not take any unless they're corner threes.

I'm not saying he can't be efficient (as his track record indicates) -- I'm saying that he's most efficient when he picks his spots, and I don't think he's doing it this season.

Well, I agree that normally one doesn't want to keep shrinking the sample.  The point really just illustrates how a few games can skew the numbers when the data set is so small.   The more recent data is only interesting if we accept the premise that it has more relevance by being more recent and further from his injury rehab stint.

I do know that, over spans at every level where Bradley has gotten consistent minutes and taken more shots, his shooting percentages have been fine and I'm not particularly worried about it.  He's still young and far from defined by the first 16 games back from a long absence.
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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #48 on: February 04, 2013, 06:44:18 PM »

Online manl_lui

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I may be late and most people probably already said it...

on offense, probably not as much, but he did hit a key 3 in the NY game...

on defense...my god, there is a lot to say about his defense...words cannot describe how much I love this kid on defense...

he hustles, he never gives up on any play...not to mention him and Lee combine to harass Wade for 6/22 and 6 TO...yesterday's game against the Clips, with that offensive foul on Crawford...

you cannot say he is not an impact player now on defense...his defense helped us win games, if he can also be an impact player on offense, this kid can and will be an all star very soon

Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #49 on: February 04, 2013, 06:57:20 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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I think Avery's an impact player already on defense. He changes games on that end of the floor. And is a very good asset to have in a league with a lot of high scoring point guards.

Offensively, this conversation reminds me of that one we had last year when Bradley was struggling so badly from the floor, until...he wasn't and he started shooting at a very high clip from range, from mid range and at the rim.

I think it takes Bradley a while to get comfortable with how he fits into an offense. Once he settled in with Rondo, Pierce, KG and Bass last year he was very effective offensively.

I think he needs to settled in with the new guys and with running with Lee as well instead of with Rondo.

Let's give him another 2-3 months coming off surgery also.

I think he's fully capable of scoring 14-17 point a game on a regular basis once he's fully re-acclimated coming off surgery. If he combines that with stellar D on opposing points, I'd be very, very happy.

   

Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #50 on: February 04, 2013, 07:53:47 PM »

Offline The Rondo Show

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I reject your premise.  He's already making a pretty large impact.

He's a role player, sure, but one that is vital to the success of this team moving forward.
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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2013, 09:07:05 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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He's a Tony Allen with less defensive upside and better shooting motion. Quality rotation player at worst and at best, so, he's an impact player probably.

Less defensive upside?  I can't really agree with that.  Are you basing that just on the fact that he's an inch or two shorter than TA?  Bradley is a much smarter player, for starters.  I think it's fair to say his upside is better on both ends of the floor.

I think Bradley's ceiling is as the best guard defender in the game with an offensive game pretty similar to Courtney Lee -- 12-14 pts a night on 45 / 40 / 80 shooting.

If Avery Bradley ever has a season where he shoots 45 from the floor and 40 from three he should instantly become president of the United States.

Alright, fine, closer to 42 or 43 percent than 45.

But it's silly to act like Bradley can't possibly achieve close to those numbers.  If he's taking fewer than 9-10 shots a game, most of his threes are spot up shots from the corners, and he's getting fed by a passer like Rondo, he could easily put up very nice shooting numbers.

Still, I don't think Bradley is ever going to score more than 12-14 points a game (and probably more like 10-11), nor is he ever going to be very good at creating his own shot.

Nevertheless, it's clear he has upside on that end of the floor, for sure.
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