Author Topic: When does AB become an impact player?  (Read 2429 times)

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Offline Snakehead

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #30 on: February 04, 2013, 12:22:27 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

I'm not sure what you're saying here?

It seems like Bradley is capable as a shooter when he's just shooting around or in drills.  He needs to take them in the game and improve there.  There seems to be a perhaps confidence related gap.

Look at any prospect report for him when he was being drafted.  Besides athleticism, they basically all said his next asset was his jump shot; pulling up, spot up, midrange:

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/avery-bradley

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Avery-Bradley-5285/


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Offline kozlodoev

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #31 on: February 04, 2013, 12:25:15 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

I'm not sure what you're saying here?

It seems like Bradley is capable as a shooter when he's just shooting around.  He needs to take them in the game and improve there.  There seems to be a perhaps confidence related gap.

Look at any prospect report for him when he was being drafted.  Besides athleticism, they basically all said his next asset was his jump shot:

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/avery-bradley

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Avery-Bradley-5285/
My point is quite clear: he isn't shooting very well, because his shot selection is poor. He needs to stop jacking shots that are not in his arsenal (said arsenal mostly consists of mid-range jumpers and corner threes) -- not to try break the rim in order to "improve".

Also, the overall board populace should stop expecting that Bradley will become an "impact" player who's going to score 18 ppg on 50% shooting and be a perennial DPOY candidate. It's called "tempering expectations".
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Offline Snakehead

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #32 on: February 04, 2013, 12:26:59 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

I'm not sure what you're saying here?

It seems like Bradley is capable as a shooter when he's just shooting around.  He needs to take them in the game and improve there.  There seems to be a perhaps confidence related gap.

Look at any prospect report for him when he was being drafted.  Besides athleticism, they basically all said his next asset was his jump shot:

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/avery-bradley

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Avery-Bradley-5285/
My point is quite clear: he isn't shooting very well, because his shot selection is poor. He needs to stop jacking shots that are not in his arsenal (said arsenal mostly consists of mid-range jumpers and corner threes) -- not to try break the rim in order to "improve".

Also, the overall board populace should stop expecting that Bradley will become an "impact" player who's going to score 18 ppg on 50% shooting and be a perennial DPOY candidate. It's called "tempering expectations".

I would love to see what bad shots he is taking.  Are you saying he takes JR Smith like size up where he pulls up and fades away?

He takes open midrange shots and threes from kick outs.

I have no idea what you are talking about with "bad shot selection".

And scoring aside, what you're saying about "impact" is my point earlier, he plays some of the very best perimeter defense in the league.  When he plays our defense somehow magically becomes elite again.  THAT is impact.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2013, 12:32:14 PM by Snakehead »


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Offline Greenbean

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #33 on: February 04, 2013, 12:27:24 PM »
Would anyone ask this question if he was scoring 25 a game on offense but playing below average defense?

Everyone can agree that the Celtics need to be a great defensive team to contend but no one can look at an individual's game objectively without bringing scoring statistics into the conversation.

Bradley's defense is as good as any Celtic's offense on the team and offensively he is not that much of a libility when paired with the right players.

I'd say that's pretty impactful.

Offline hpantazo

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #34 on: February 04, 2013, 12:30:44 PM »
Bradley is what he is, he's not going to change. He's an excellent defender with amazing hustle, but he is not a scorer or a ball handler, and he will never be.

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #35 on: February 04, 2013, 12:34:05 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

I'm not sure what you're saying here?

It seems like Bradley is capable as a shooter when he's just shooting around.  He needs to take them in the game and improve there.  There seems to be a perhaps confidence related gap.

Look at any prospect report for him when he was being drafted.  Besides athleticism, they basically all said his next asset was his jump shot:

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/avery-bradley

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Avery-Bradley-5285/
My point is quite clear: he isn't shooting very well, because his shot selection is poor. He needs to stop jacking shots that are not in his arsenal (said arsenal mostly consists of mid-range jumpers and corner threes) -- not to try break the rim in order to "improve".

Also, the overall board populace should stop expecting that Bradley will become an "impact" player who's going to score 18 ppg on 50% shooting and be a perennial DPOY candidate. It's called "tempering expectations".

I don't think Bradley can do much about his shot selection while Rondo is out. He is not going to be able to get high percentage attempts regularly enough + with the ball-handling duties Doc is giving Bradley, Bradley is going to have to take a much larger number of low to medium percentage shot attempts.

Just the way it's going to be until Rondo comes back next season.

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #36 on: February 04, 2013, 12:41:51 PM »
I really hate how they're trying to make Bradley into a PG. Terry, Barbosa, and Lee should all be handling the ball before Bradley does.

Offline kozlodoev

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #37 on: February 04, 2013, 12:54:06 PM »
I would love to see what bad shots he is taking.  Are you saying he takes JR Smith like size up where he pulls up and fades away?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bradlav01/shooting/2013/

His efficiency at the rim has distinctly dropped (.600 last season, .450 this season). It's quite evident that he isn't much of a threat when we're not feeding him for wide-open dunks.

With him, as with Bass, the drop in efficiency comes clearly from the fact that they're trying to play outside of their skill set. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say it's a misguided attempt to "build" on last year's success.
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Offline BballTim

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #38 on: February 04, 2013, 01:36:39 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

  I don't think that's the case. He's got too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions, the first few games he was back and the game or two after his rib injury probably constitute 1/4 to 1/3 of his total attempts.

Offline kozlodoev

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #39 on: February 04, 2013, 01:56:15 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

  I don't think that's the case. He's got too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions, the first few games he was back and the game or two after his rib injury probably constitute 1/4 to 1/3 of his total attempts.
So what _is_ the case then?
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Offline droopdog7

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #40 on: February 04, 2013, 01:57:05 PM »
He's a Tony Allen with less defensive upside and better shooting motion. Quality rotation player at worst and at best, so, he's an impact player probably.

Less defensive upside?  I can't really agree with that.  Are you basing that just on the fact that he's an inch or two shorter than TA?  Bradley is a much smarter player, for starters.  I think it's fair to say his upside is better on both ends of the floor.

I think Bradley's ceiling is as the best guard defender in the game with an offensive game pretty similar to Courtney Lee -- 12-14 pts a night on 45 / 40 / 80 shooting.

  The advantage Allen has over Bradley is versatility. Avery's a very good defender but Tony's bigger and stronger and can cover more players effectively.

Yeah, I get that.  TA can perhaps cover 3 positions (both guard spots and SF) while Avery can really only cover guards. 

But I don't think that's the same as saying that Bradley doesn't have more "upside" than TA, even defensively.  TA is a very good defender, but he doesn't change the game the way that Bradley does.  Bradley seems to have an almost KG-like effect on team defense.  I don't remember TA ever doing that.

Also you can't underestimate the importance of the fact that Bradley is a smart basketball player; nobody has ever accused TA of being particularly smart (on the court).

  I remember the 2010 playoffs where TA made a big defensive impact against the Heat by guarding Wade, the Cavs by guarding James and the Lakers by guarding Kobe. Bradley generally doesn't guard whoever the best scorer is on the other team, he guards the pg.

Bradley is perhaps the best defender ever against Wade. Also, this is the age of the pg, so I have no problem with him guarding the likes of Irving, Westbrook, CP3, etc...

Tony Allen was just as good on wade...I do think Avery is smarter then ta ever was here and doesn't get the credit for his d on taller 2s ala James harden and Joe Johnson and and I expect to see him on Kobe coming up...he doesn't just chase pgs
Yeah, I too give the edge to Allen as a defender.  As has already been stated, Bradley can really only guard PG's and smallish 2 guards.  He would have trouble against anyone with size that has a post game (see Joe Johnson, Kobe). 

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #41 on: February 04, 2013, 02:08:04 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

  I don't think that's the case. He's got too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions, the first few games he was back and the game or two after his rib injury probably constitute 1/4 to 1/3 of his total attempts.
So what _is_ the case then?

Well, if you look at the aggregate of all his shooting at various levels (high school, college, D-League, AND the NBA) then he projects out to be a pretty decent shooter - somewhere between 35-40% from 3PT land, for example.

This season is, as BBallTim indicates, still a small sample size and it is not at all unreasonable to believe that the early couple of weeks of shooting, just back from a long absence from the game, are not necessarily representative of how he'll shoot over the long run - but they have a pretty strong statistical weight on the current season.  Thus his overall 3PT% for the season is a miserable 31.2% so far.

As others have noted, though, over the last 10 games, Bradley has shot 37.9% from 3PT land.  That seems more likely to be where he settles in for the long haul (given his larger body of work at the NBA and other levels).  At that rate, yes, yes I do want him taking at least 3 3PT shots per game.  In fact, I'd prefer him to be taking 4 or 5 such shots.
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Offline kozlodoev

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #42 on: February 04, 2013, 02:19:20 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

  I don't think that's the case. He's got too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions, the first few games he was back and the game or two after his rib injury probably constitute 1/4 to 1/3 of his total attempts.
So what _is_ the case then?

Well, if you look at the aggregate of all his shooting at various levels (high school, college, D-League, AND the NBA) then he projects out to be a pretty decent shooter - somewhere between 35-40% from 3PT land, for example.

This season is, as BBallTim indicates, still a small sample size and it is not at all unreasonable to believe that the early couple of weeks of shooting, just back from a long absence from the game, are not necessarily representative of how he'll shoot over the long run - but they have a pretty strong statistical weight on the current season.  Thus his overall 3PT% for the season is a miserable 31.2% so far.

As others have noted, though, over the last 10 games, Bradley has shot 37.9% from 3PT land.  That seems more likely to be where he settles in for the long haul (given his larger body of work at the NBA and other levels).  At that rate, yes, yes I do want him taking at least 3 3PT shots per game.  In fact, I'd prefer him to be taking 4 or 5 such shots.
So the solution to the small sample issue is to take... an even smaller sample?

For that matter, the respectable three point shooting percentage is largely due to one game, in which he shot 4 for 7. Incidentally, that was eleven games ago (he missed one in the process). Take this one out, and he's back to shooting a pedestrian .318 from three.

Or in other words, he's shot close to 32% from three over the team's last 10 games. So if you're trying to argue trend there, there isn't much of a trend.

Not only would I like him to take less threes than he does right now, but I'd like him to not take any unless they're corner threes.

I'm not saying he can't be efficient (as his track record indicates) -- I'm saying that he's most efficient when he picks his spots, and I don't think he's doing it this season.
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Offline BballTim

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #43 on: February 04, 2013, 02:19:53 PM »
The problem is Bradley is now jacking threes like there's no tomorrow (3 per game) -- and when he shot .500 from the field he mostly got wide open layups.

That's not a problem, that's the kind of thing you do to try and develop a young player.  I want him to pick a few spots on the floor other than the corner and shoot a three almost any time he's open there until he is considered a threat or he proves he will never develop that shot.

I totally agree.  He needs to take these shots and look for them in game to get used to it.


And this discussion is fine and all, but I hope we aren't saying Avery hasn't made an impact because he shoots 3 three pointers a game and has a 42 % eFG?  Right?
Well, he's taking them. It's mostly a brick fest. "Developing as a threat" is all fine and dandy, except that you don't shoot yourself into being a threat, that's putting the cart before the horse.

  I don't think that's the case. He's got too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions, the first few games he was back and the game or two after his rib injury probably constitute 1/4 to 1/3 of his total attempts.
So what _is_ the case then?

  Sorry, that was unclear. I don't think it's the case that Bradley is a poor 3 point shooter but the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions either way.

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Re: When does AB become an impact player?
« Reply #44 on: February 04, 2013, 02:27:05 PM »
Bradley will probably be a lifelong role player.  A solid defensive option for covering opposing point guards.  I've been calling him a smaller Tony Allen for a while now... Tony Allen has more offense, but Bradley doesn't have the mental lapses.  I think some fans got a little overly excited by Bradley's crazy month of hot shooting and assumed he was a future star.  He's not.  He's probably going to spend most of his career coming off the bench as a defensive specialist. This league is loaded with young talented point guards... Bradley has value to a team looking to counteract that.


 

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